The status of Moore's law: It's complicated

jasong · 2013-11-14, 17:36

http://spectrum.ieee.org/semiconduct...ts-complicated

I'll let the thread speak for itself. :) The article is dated October 28th, 2013.

chalsall · 2013-11-14, 18:20

Moore's law is not a law.

It was an inference.

jasong · 2013-11-14, 23:07

Quote:

Originally Posted by chalsall

Moore's law is not a law.

It was an inference.

True, but I'm sure there are plenty of "laws" that are simply predictions of behavior. Like the law of toast always landing butter-side down. It's not truly 100%, but it's close enough that people say it always happens.

Off-topic: Buttered toast law comes from the statistical actions of a piece of bread dropped from counter height, and is not simply based on people remembering the bad drops more. Not sure if the experiment is googlable. Edit: turns out, it is.

http://www.mythbusterstheexhibition....utter-side-up/

kladner · 2013-11-14, 23:10

Quote:

Originally Posted by jasong

True, but I'm sure there are plenty of "laws" that are simply predictions of behavior. Like the law of toast always landing butter-side down.

Off-topic: Buttered toast law comes from the statistical actions of a piece of bread dropped from counter height, and is not simply based on people remembering the bad drops more. Not sure if the experiment is googlable.

.....and the rabbi told the king, "Your Majesty, your toast is obviously being buttered on the wrong side!"

jasong · 2013-11-15, 00:02

Quote:

Originally Posted by kladner

.....and the rabbi told the king, "Your Majesty, your toast is obviously being buttered on the wrong side!"

Yes, but have you heard of the toast that had no butter?

Anyway, back on topic. Do you guys think progress will radically slow down in the next decade or two, or will we find new, awesome ways to process stuff?

I'm hoping Ray Kurzweil is correct and things will continue to get faster and better.

TheMawn · 2013-11-15, 02:32

History is peppered with people saying progress has reached its peak and will begin to slow. The US patent office said in 1898 or something that everything that can be invented already has and that it would need to close its doors.

They were wrong then and are wrong today. People are always saying "but it's different now." Hell, they said that during the ice-age scare in the seventies.

jasong · 2016-03-01, 06:20

It appears even the tech companies are predicting the end of Moore's Law. Next month some of the them will have the first planning session in a "post-Moore's Law era."

Makes me wonder what will happen with companies like AMD, will they finally catch up and be able to compete on an even footing with Intel. Or will Intel maybe come up with another under-handed tactic to keep them down? Maybe both, maybe neither. Who knows.

The most exciting part is that people hopefully will stop wasting their money on the latest and greatest phone and maybe phones will be made that actually do what people need them to do without whizbang features and screens like mirrors.

Also, there's still tech in the pipeline that doesn't need miniaturization, only maturation. Like screens that can show video that reflects ambient light rather than needing a backlight. Or a true paperless office where you can use a cheap tablet like a piece of paper, except with the ability to transfer your notes to other places and maybe have multiple tablets because they're so damn cheap.

Dubslow · 2016-03-01, 06:43

The silicon wave is nearing its end. But that doesn't mean there aren't other waves to catch.

xilman · 2016-03-01, 12:37

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dubslow

The silicon wave is nearing its end. But that doesn't mean there aren't other waves to catch.

The 2-d (epitaxy) era may be approaching its end. It's not clear to me that the silicon semiconductor era is anywhere near finished.

An exaflops computer will fit in a 10cm cube of silicon. The engineering problem is getting the ~1MW of electricity into it and the ~1MW of heat out of it.

fivemack · 2016-03-01, 13:24

Quote:

Originally Posted by xilman

The 2-d (epitaxy) era may be approaching its end. It's not clear to me that the silicon semiconductor era is anywhere near finished.

An exaflops computer will fit in a 10cm cube of silicon. The engineering problem is getting the ~1MW of electricity into it and the ~1MW of heat out of it.

That's only ten times the energy density of an operating pressurised-water reactor; current-handling capacity goes as cross-sectional area and you can get 300 amps down one-square-centimetre cable, so if you can devote four sides of the cube to giant copper bus-bars you don't need to do on-chip downconversion from much more than 30V.

jux · 2016-03-01, 14:37

I saw this today (along with all the Super Tuesday articles) http://www.extremetech.com/computing...uv-lithography
Hopefully, in the near future, EUV lithography pushes scaling back a few years.

2013-11-14, 17:36	#1
jasong "Jason Goatcher" Mar 2005 110110110011₂ Posts	The status of Moore's law: It's complicated http://spectrum.ieee.org/semiconduct...ts-complicated I'll let the thread speak for itself. :) The article is dated October 28th, 2013.

2013-11-14, 18:20	#2
chalsall If I May "Chris Halsall" Sep 2002 Barbados 2×5×7×139 Posts	Moore's law is not a law. It was an inference. Last fiddled with by chalsall on 2013-11-14 at 18:22 Reason: Removed quote from Jason.

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2013-11-15, 02:32	#6
TheMawn May 2013 East. Always East. 3277₈ Posts	History is peppered with people saying progress has reached its peak and will begin to slow. The US patent office said in 1898 or something that everything that can be invented already has and that it would need to close its doors. They were wrong then and are wrong today. People are always saying "but it's different now." Hell, they said that during the ice-age scare in the seventies.

2016-03-01, 06:20	#7
jasong "Jason Goatcher" Mar 2005 3×7×167 Posts	It appears even the tech companies are predicting the end of Moore's Law. Next month some of the them will have the first planning session in a "post-Moore's Law era." Makes me wonder what will happen with companies like AMD, will they finally catch up and be able to compete on an even footing with Intel. Or will Intel maybe come up with another under-handed tactic to keep them down? Maybe both, maybe neither. Who knows. The most exciting part is that people hopefully will stop wasting their money on the latest and greatest phone and maybe phones will be made that actually do what people need them to do without whizbang features and screens like mirrors. Also, there's still tech in the pipeline that doesn't need miniaturization, only maturation. Like screens that can show video that reflects ambient light rather than needing a backlight. Or a true paperless office where you can use a cheap tablet like a piece of paper, except with the ability to transfer your notes to other places and maybe have multiple tablets because they're so damn cheap.

2016-03-01, 06:43	#8
Dubslow Basketry That Evening! "Bunslow the Bold" Jun 2011 40<A<43 -89<O<-88 1C35₁₆ Posts	The silicon wave is nearing its end. But that doesn't mean there aren't other waves to catch.

2016-03-01, 14:37	#11
jux Aug 2015 54₁₀ Posts	I saw this today (along with all the Super Tuesday articles) http://www.extremetech.com/computing...uv-lithography Hopefully, in the near future, EUV lithography pushes scaling back a few years.