Predict M50

Uncwilly · 2016-01-13, 00:37

With M49 all but certain, here is the new thread for guessing M50.
Based upon previous rules.

THE RULES OF THE GAME:

Post your guess here, no PM'ing.
Your guess must include a prime number (we are guessing the exponent) and or date of discovery. No ranges, they may be ignored (or we may take the worst case of the range as the choice.)
You can not guess a number (or date) that has already been guessed.
If there is a tie (i.e. 2 posts are equally close and meet all other rules), the first post gets it.
You may post 3 guesses. If all exponents up to your number have had a first time test, you may select another, after a 60 day wait. Same for date predictions.
All guesses received within the 48 hours before M50 is reported are hereby disqualified (to prevent cheating).
I ask the moderators to lock this thread when M50 is reported.
The discoverer of M50 will have all guesses posted more than 2 days after they were assigned the expo that is reported to be prime, are hereby disqualified.
If the prime that is reported fails the rechecks, those disqualified in 7 and 8 will be restored.

All previous guesses from other threads must be specifically restated.

Dubslow · 2016-01-13, 01:07

Much stricter, eh?

LaurV · 2016-01-13, 03:40

M50 has already been found. However, you are still allowed to try predicting M49...

Edit: and I like point 8, restoring itself...

firejuggler · 2016-01-14, 16:47

predicting M85,650,113 for M50 if there is none between M48 and the newly discovered M49 and
M67,750,363 if there is. as for the date... 3 january 2019.

petrw1 · 2016-01-14, 18:31

87654349

2017-12-31

Batalov · 2016-01-14, 18:42

110691517
6-19-2019

R. Gerbicz · 2016-01-14, 18:52

57885161
2013-01-25

davar55 · 2016-01-14, 19:13

I can't predict M50 until M49* is revealed,
but I do predict that there's only one MP
exponent between 60M and 100M, and I
predict that there are an infinity of MPs,
so M50 > 100M. I think M51 > 190M.

So is P95 going to be able to search that high or not?

petrw1 · 2016-01-14, 19:32

Quote:

Originally Posted by davar55

So is P95 going to be able to search that high or not?

I believe it is capable up to almost 600M

davar55 · 2016-01-14, 19:45

Quote:

Originally Posted by petrw1

I believe it is capable up to almost 600M

Oh cool so we still might find a few more in a few years
before we (generic we) have to update to a P2020 program?

Uncwilly · 2016-01-19, 18:11

My first guess:

79,399,909 on the day before Valentines day 2017 (a gift to us).

2016-01-13, 00:37	#1
Uncwilly 6809 > 6502 """"""""""""""""""" Aug 2003 101×103 Posts 2·5,333 Posts	Predict M50 With M49 all but certain, here is the new thread for guessing M50. Based upon previous rules. THE RULES OF THE GAME: Post your guess here, no PM'ing. Your guess must include a prime number (we are guessing the exponent) and or date of discovery. No ranges, they may be ignored (or we may take the worst case of the range as the choice.) You can not guess a number (or date) that has already been guessed. If there is a tie (i.e. 2 posts are equally close and meet all other rules), the first post gets it. You may post 3 guesses. If all exponents up to your number have had a first time test, you may select another, after a 60 day wait. Same for date predictions. All guesses received within the 48 hours before M50 is reported are hereby disqualified (to prevent cheating). I ask the moderators to lock this thread when M50 is reported. The discoverer of M50 will have all guesses posted more than 2 days after they were assigned the expo that is reported to be prime, are hereby disqualified. If the prime that is reported fails the rechecks, those disqualified in 7 and 8 will be restored. All previous guesses from other threads must be specifically restated. Last fiddled with by Uncwilly on 2016-01-13 at 00:39

2016-01-13, 03:40	#3
LaurV Romulan Interpreter "name field" Jun 2011 Thailand 10011100001110₂ Posts	M50 has already been found. However, you are still allowed to try predicting M49... Edit: and I like point 8, restoring itself... Last fiddled with by LaurV on 2016-01-13 at 03:41

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2016-01-13, 01:07	#2
Dubslow Basketry That Evening! "Bunslow the Bold" Jun 2011 40<A<43 -89<O<-88 3×29×83 Posts	Much stricter, eh?

2016-01-14, 16:47	#4
firejuggler "Vincent" Apr 2010 Over the rainbow 5·569 Posts	predicting M85,650,113 for M50 if there is none between M48 and the newly discovered M49 and M67,750,363 if there is. as for the date... 3 january 2019.

2016-01-14, 18:31	#5
petrw1 1976 Toyota Corona years forever! "Wayne" Nov 2006 Saskatchewan, Canada 3×37×47 Posts	87654349 2017-12-31

2016-01-14, 18:42	#6
Batalov "Serge" Mar 2008 Phi(4,2^7658614+1)/2 9901₁₀ Posts	110691517 6-19-2019

2016-01-14, 18:52	#7
R. Gerbicz "Robert Gerbicz" Oct 2005 Hungary 3045₈ Posts	57885161 2013-01-25

2016-01-14, 19:13	#8
davar55 May 2004 New York City 1000010001011₂ Posts	I can't predict M50 until M49* is revealed, but I do predict that there's only one MP exponent between 60M and 100M, and I predict that there are an infinity of MPs, so M50 > 100M. I think M51 > 190M. So is P95 going to be able to search that high or not?

2016-01-19, 18:11	#11
Uncwilly 6809 > 6502 """"""""""""""""""" Aug 2003 101×103 Posts 2·5,333 Posts	My first guess: 79,399,909 on the day before Valentines day 2017 (a gift to us).