Move 3 discussion: Everyone vs. stockfish

[WMHalsdorf]

While the percentage for a draw is higher than most of the moves offered I prefer 3. Nd2.
I look at draws as an attempt at going for a win that is countered.

[LaurV]

a) Clearly after 3. exd exd, we can't do too much, center is gone on both sides... we play for draw. I think we may help the computer by simplifying the position. Gary was right.

b) I also don't like 3 e5 c5, our pawns are too far, difficult to defend, black is very strong in the center. Exchanging c5 looks like white ruin to me (losing both pawns, and center) so we have to invent a better move after 3...c5. DBs show either 4.c3 or 4.Nf3 as a continuation. We may play it if we go for a draw.

c) 3. Nd2 seems safer, but white is jailing himself, it has not so much space to maneuver. Same as above, we can play it if we go for a draw. In fact, the DBs are giving a lower chance for black by a very little, and a huger chance for draw on 3.Nd2 c5, chesstempo has w/d/b chances of 28/52/20, a "sure draw" if we play "perfect", and I don't even think we could get that draw when we will get to arguing in the midgame, without opening books

d) What's left, 3.Nc3 would get my vote. Is the most played on different DBs, it has good chances for white, it lets enough free space to maneuver, is well defended. If 3...dxe, 4. Nxe, this is not looking good for black. Black's best may be 3...Nf6, to which we still can play either 4.e5 or 4.exd, if wanted. White looks also promising, after 3...Bb4, 4.exd,exd, 5.Nf3, because now black will either need to exchange that bishop or retreating it, giving white the sente for one more tempo. White can develop faster. So, 3.Nc3 is my winning move

[Brian-E]

I like 3.Nd2. It leads to a slight but lasting edge for White i.m.o.

EDIT: Just a minor note about Gary's comments about 3.exd5 here and in the other thread. It's worth noting that the reason Black wins against that move so often is that Black is usually the stronger player when the exchange variation of the French is played. It's a well known attempt by White to play for a draw, which White wouldn't usually do if he/she/they/it was the stronger player. After 3.exd5 exd5 the position is symmetrical with White on move, so White really can't be worse. I don't especially advocate 3.exd5, but for those who think we should aim for a drawish position it is definitely worth considering.