White 28

[cheesehead]

Let's just say that [i]if[/i] Black makes certain blunders in the next two moves, I have the winning-a-piece analysis all ready -- but there is a way for the Gekkota to thread their way between the hazards, so that we have to just keep acquiring and pushing small positional advantages.

[LaurV]

[QUOTE=cheesehead;373263]
Let's show that [how black loses a figure] explicitly, move by move.
[B]28 Re1 Nec6 29 Bf4[/B] ...[/QUOTE]
Very nice expanding of this version! Beautiful!

Now, if we all agree with 28 Re1, I will post the move in few minutes. My vote would also give 5 points to this move, and not much to other moves.

Just for "consolidating", like cheesehead said, black [STRIKE]possible[/STRIKE] [COLOR=Blue]reasonable[/COLOR] replays can be one of the following. He has no strong threats in the following few moves, so either he has to retreat that horse or he may try to sacrifice it for a better position or pawns advantage. Any other move except the moves in the list, white has a [U]clear[/U] win.

Defending the horse:
1) 28... Nec6 - well described above (in post #8) by cheesehead, this is clear black loss.
2) 28... Nef5 - this is a bit more complicate, he attack e3, quite a good move. We can't beat the horse in d4, because after cxd4, Bxd4+, we can not block Be3, because after the exchange, they get a pawn and we can't hope to more then a draw (in fact, most probable we lose the game there). So we must play the king, they get the horse back, Bxc5, we are a pawn less, we go for a draw. If we don't beat that horse at move 29 (and move crap), their best move is to save it: Nc2! Quite strong, attacks the rook, we can't follow it, neither capture it, and it kills our offensive in e6. To avoid Nc2, we can play either 29 Rc1, or 29 Be4. I don't know about Rc1 (bad anyhow because Ne2+, anyhow, and I don't like to lose control of e6), but 29 Be4 seems to be a very strong move. We now threat to push g4 and black has nothing he can do to save the horses and the king-side pawns in the same time. His only way is to push h5, then Bf4 and he can't save the rook. They might play 29..Nb3, but 30 Rb1 is the antidote, again very good for us. Also, we can play the king. In fact, 29 Kh1 here will take the king out form [U]any[/U] possible fork/attack, and it does not block the rook attack on e6. This is somehow too defensive, they still have Nc2 attack, we are forced to Rc1, but now black can do nothing to save the horse. If Bf8 (attacks our horse) then Bf4 and they lose the rook. Beautiful!

This version is a winner for us.

Running away with the horse:
3) 28...Nb3 29 Rb1 is covered above, win for us.

4) 28...Ndc6 29 Nxe6 Bxe6 Rxe6, this was discussed before (remember "rook to line 6" discussion?) Rb1 (the problem is the horse in c6 can't be defended/moved, and the only way to move it is to make place in b8) 31 Kf2 Nb8 32 Be4, BOOM! One more pawn. White win.

5) 28...Ndf5 - this seems to be the most complicate version, because now the bishop in g7 is defended, the horse is not attached by our bishop. So black is not forced capture the horse (he can just forget about the pawn and continue) or he can capture but not play the king after re-capture. Here we don't get any material advantage, I think here is where we have to concentrate, in case this will be their reply.

So, let's consider that the game will progress like:

[B]28 Re1 Ndf5 29 ??

[/B]In this case [STRIKE]29 Nxe6 Bxe6 30 Rxe6[/STRIKE] is not so good, because 30...Rc8 (black is not forced to defend the horse/bishop) so we need to find a better way. 29 Nxa5, or 29 g4 are both promising, but need more analysis.

I will post 28 Re1 now.

[cheesehead]

[QUOTE=LaurV;373641]
5) 28...Ndf5 - this seems to be the most complicate version, because now the bishop in g7 is defended, the horse is not attached by our bishop.

< snip >

So, let's consider that the game will progress like:

[B]28 Re1 Ndf5 29 ??[/B][/QUOTE]Actually, 28 ... Ndf5 is one of the Black possible-blunders that [U][I]almost [/I][/U] (see bottom analysis line of this post) leads to a forced win of a piece for us! :-)

I discovered this during analysis I haven't yet posted, so here it is:

[B]28 ... Ndf5[/B]. There, it guards d6, interfering with our Nd6+.

So, first we drive it off the f5 post with
[B]29 g4[/B], to which Black's only feasible response is
[B]29 ... Nh4[/B].

In past analysis, I always thought we needed to preserve our light-square bishop for later use, but in the following sequences, that's not so important as long as we keep the ... Nf3+ fork possibility prevented.

We proceed with:

[B]30 Nd6+[/B]

If [B]30 ... Kf8 31 Nxc8[/B] and now no matter what Black does on his move 31, we'll come out with at least a piece up:

If [B]31 ... Rxc8 32 Nxe6+ K-moves(f7 or g8) 33 Nxg7 Kxg7 34 Rxe7+[/B] and we're a bishop and pawn up.

If [B]31 ... Nxc8 32 Nd7+ and 33 Nxb8[/B] and we're a rook up.

If [B]31 ... Nxg2 32 Kxg2[/B] and then proceed as above:
(If [B]32 ... Rxc8 33 Nxe6+ K-moves(f7 or g8) 34 Nxg7 Kxg7 35 Rxe7+[/B] and we're a bishop and pawn up. If [B]32 ... Nxc8 33 Nd7+ and 34 Nxb8[/B] and we're a rook up.)

If [B]31 ... Ke8 or Kf7 32 Nxe7 Kxe7[/B] and we're a bishop up.

If [B]31 ... Kg8 32 Nxe7+[/B] and we're two pieces up.

If [B]31 ... any pawn move 32 Nxe7[/B] and we're a bishop up.

If [B]31 ... Nd5 or Ng8 32 Nd6[/B] and we're a bishop up.

If [B]31 ... Nc6 32 Bxc6 Rxc8 33 Nxe6+[/B]. Now
If [B]33 ... Ke7 34 Nxg7+[/B]. Now
If [B]34 ... Kf6 35 Ne8+ Kf7 36 Nd6+ and 37 Nxc8[/B]. We're a rook, two bishops and a pawn up.
If [B]34 ... Kf7 35 Bd5+ Kxg7[/B] and we're a piece and pawn up.
If [B]34 ... Kf8 35 Ne6+ K-moves 36 Bd5[/B] and we're up two bishops and a pawn.
If [B]34 ... Kd6 35 Re6+ K-moves 36 Be4[/B]and we're up two bishops and a pawn.
If [B]34 ... Kd8 35 Re8+ Kc7 36 Rxc8+ Kxc8[/B]and we're up two bishops and a pawn.
If [B]33 ... Kf7 or Kg8 34 Bd5[/B] (not Nxg7 Rxc6 35 Re7 Nf3+) [B]Bxc3 35 Bxc3 Rxc3 36 Nd4+ K-moves 37 Kf2[/B] and we're a bishop up.

If [B]31 ... Bf6 or Bh8 32 Nxe7[/B] and we're a bishop up.

If [B]30 ... Kd8 31 Nxc8[/B]. Now

If [B]31 ... Nxc8 32 Nxe6+ and 33 Nxg7[/B] and we're a piece and pawn up.

If [B]31 ... Rxc8 32 Nxe6+ and 33 Nxg7[/B] and we're a piece and pawn up.

As always, I invite you to find flaws or omissions in all the analysis above. :-)

- -

But there is one line where we don't have a forced piece-win [I]as far as I've seen [U]so far (but I'm not finished with the analysis)[/U][/I]: [B][B][B][B][B]28 ... Ndf5 [/B]29 g4 Nh4 [/B]30 Nd6+[/B] Kd8 31 Nxc8[/B] Kxc8.[/B] (Actually, I'm posting this before completing my analysis, so I/we may yet find a piece-win in this line!)

If [B] 32 Nxe6 [/B](threatening 33 Nxg7)[B].[/B] Now
If [B]32 ... Bf6 33 ???????[/B]
If [B]32 ... ??????[/B]

If [B]32 Rxe6 [/B](threatening 33 Rxe7)[B] Rb1+ 33 Kf2
[/B]
If [B]33 ... Rb2 34 Bb7+
[/B]If [B]34 ... Rxb7 35 Nxb7 Kxb7 36 Rxe7+[/B] and [B]37 Rxg7
[/B]If [B][B]34 ...[/B] ???????[/B]

If [B]33 ... ???????[/B]

If [B]32 ?????[/B]