Untested Riesel conjectures sorted by conjecture

[MyDogBuster]

Post to keep Riesel & Sierp threads together

[rogue]

I took each of the conjectures where the conjectured k>1000000 and ran a range of 10000 (900000-909999) up to n=500 with the script to get an idea as to the difficulty to proving them. The following list is an extrapolation of that data, showing the number of expected remaining k per conjecture at n=500 and n=25000, presuming that about 85% of the k would be eliminated. It is my opinion that outside of R301, that this project should be wary of anyone reserving one of these conjectures. Although I could see someone getting some of these to n=10000, n=25000 seems to be out of the question. I wonder if we should reject any reservations on the other bases because management would be nightmarish.

Base     Conjectured k   Exp k at n=500   Exp k at n=25000
 885           1041492            17914           2687
 301           1061982             5532            830
 508           1225673            19366           2905
 955           1333860            24276           3641
 847           1357806            24712           3707
 913           1368714            35997           5400
 267           1432662            73496          11024
 486           1525283            20286           3043
 276           1552307            40205           6031
 547           1556732            64449           9667
 673           1617938            76367          11455
 106           1626615            56444           8467
 990           1684699            37232           5585
 831           1721084            32528           4879
 886           1758033            29887           4483
 391           1820454            19115           2867
 793           1834536            63658           9549
 705           1881842            52127           7819
 427           2080614            33082           4962
 765           2114542            29815           4472
 346           2119475            39846           5977
 196           2215067            10189           1528
 130           2443673            23459           3519
 126           2767077            10515           1577
 462           2924772            28663           4299
 240           2952972            28644           4297
 385           3449490            14833           2225
 735           3536594            36781           5517
 201           3669230            23483           3522
 124           3730449            59314           8897
 721           3966270            38473           5771
 915           3970630            50824           7624
 907           4050362           109765          16465
 691           4306490            94743          14211
 453           4658266            91768          13765
 651           4965144            24826           3724
 238           5415261            56319           8448
 586           5906982            59661           8949
 561           5975464           215714          32357
 817           6189398           100887          15133
 420           6548233            41909           6286
 180           7674582            71374          10706
 525           8364188            75278           11292
 205           8450016            36335          5450
 715           9745298           354729          53209
1015          11049380            62981           9447
 546          11732602            80955          12143
 570          12511182           128865          19330
 726          12751579           210401          31560
 261          13061094            86203          12930
 585          14271738           196950          29543
 541          15546458           175675          26351
 330          16527822           666071          99911
 400          20080878           955850         143378
 865          21155948           308877          46332
 963          22349616           590030          88505
 760          22676277           829952         124493
 777          23485096           382807          57421
 630          24412760           278305          41746
 481          25956422           207651          31148
 556          26019699           395499          59325
 796          27199220           410708          61606
 358          27606383          1101495         165224
 801          40381102           468421          70263
 690          42053568           529875          79481
 925          44751264          2447894         367184
 271          50389004           428307          64246
 876          51768432          2112152         316823
 756          54604682           513284          76993
 456          76303920          2731680         409752
 891          79570190          1193553         179033
 210          80176412          2701945         405292
1020          94655888           927628         139144
  66         101954772           244691          36704
 325         112882226           699870         104981
 631         149801300          5932131         889820
 120         166616308          5881556         882233
 906         171998037          2528371         379256
  63         187258666          2340733         351110
 175         278467080          3425145         513772
 700         343498413          2507538         376131
  85         398534880         13709600        2056440
 195         582483712          7339295        1100894
 966         699327630          6853411        1028012
 141         960608630         34581911        5187287
  71        1132052528         47433001        7114950
 345        1295243216         16838162        2525724
 399        1558133564         20567363        3085104
 156        2113322677         24514543        3677181
 946        2156122023         81285800       12192870
 415        3246826818         63637806        9545671
 921       10667550454        247487171       37123076
 435       31732727570       1339121103      200868165
 960       61681833328       2646150650      396922598
 127       93902377422       3615241531      542286230
 981      112303013130       4514581128      677187169
 826      131420459393       3351221715      502683257
 799     1885767686976      98059919723    14708987958
 661     2518794379382      73296916440    10994537466
 910     5005381602981      43046281786     6456942268
 855     7419914968008     320540326618    48081048993
 511    40789000085994     199866100421    29979915063
 280   513613045571841    6111995242305   916799286346

[gd_barnes]

Originally Posted by rogue

I took each of the conjectures where the conjectured k>1000000 and ran a range of 10000 (900000-909999) up to n=500 with the script to get an idea as to the difficulty to proving them. The following list is an extrapolation of that data, showing the number of expected remaining k per conjecture at n=500 and n=25000, presuming that about 85% of the k would be eliminated. It is my opinion that outside of R301, that this project should be wary of anyone reserving one of these conjectures. Although I could see someone getting some of these to n=10000, n=25000 seems to be out of the question. I wonder if we should reject any reservations on the other bases because management would be nightmarish.

Thanks for the interesting info.

I wouldn't reject reservations outright but I would, as I've done in the past, drill someone on exactly how they plan to test such a range. I also look at their number of posts and general experience level around the mersenneforum. Frequently when I tell them the amount of work involved, they choose something different, reduce their reservation, or as I've had happen a few times, they just go away.

Where did you get the 85% reduction in k's remaining from n=500 to n=2500? In my experience, for low-conjectured bases, it's about 35% and for high-conjectured bases, it's close to 50% for a 5-fold increase in n-value. That's an average with a fairly wide variation in specific bases. (I've run a lot of bases with ck<10K from n=1K to 5K in my effort to do all bases with < x number of k's remaining at n=5K.)

You might run a few k=1000 ranges from these up to n=2500 just to convince yourself of the fact that 85% is too high of a reduction. Remember that S63 has about a 76% reduction from n=1K to 10K but that's a 10-fold increase (vs. 5-fold from n=500 to 2500) in n-value and S63 is much higher-weight than most bases, as are most b=2^q-1 and b==(1 mod 30) bases.


Gary

[rogue]

Originally Posted by gd_barnes

Thanks for the interesting info.

I wouldn't reject reservations outright but I would, as I've done in the past, drill someone on exactly how they plan to test such a range. I also look at their number of posts and general experience level around the mersenneforum. Frequently when I tell them the amount of work involved, they choose something different, reduce their reservation, or as I've had happen a few times, they just go away.

Where did you get the 85% reduction in k's remaining from n=500 to n=2500? In my experience, for low-conjectured bases, it's about 35% and for high-conjectured bases, it's close to 50% for a 5-fold increase in n-value. That's an average with a fairly wide variation in specific bases. (I've run a lot of bases with ck<10K from n=1K to 5K in my effort to do all bases with < x number of k's remaining at n=5K.)

You might run a few k=1000 ranges from these up to n=2500 just to convince yourself of the fact that 85% is too high of a reduction. Remember that S63 has about a 76% reduction from n=1K to 10K but that's a 10-fold increase (vs. 5-fold from n=500 to 2500) in n-value and S63 is much higher-weight than most bases, as are most b=2^q-1 and b==(1 mod 30) bases.

I stated an upper n of 25000, not 2500. I don't know if that affects what you have written.

[gd_barnes]

Originally Posted by rogue

I stated an upper n of 25000, not 2500. I don't know if that affects what you have written.

I must be losing my mind. I thought it said n=2500. That sounds pretty close for n=25K. Sorry for the confusion.

[Puzzle-Peter]

The table in the first post says the lowest remaining CK is >1000 but Vassilis stats page says there are 3.2% of the 100<CK<1000 bases untested. Where's the catch?

[Mathew]

Originally Posted by Puzzle-Peter

The table in the first post says the lowest remaining CK is >1000 but Vassilis stats page says there are 3.2% of the 100<CK<1000 bases untested. Where's the catch?

I think the catch is the 3.2% are in the "Testing just started" phase. They are reserved, hence removed from the first post. When the results are returned Vassilis' stats page will update accordingly.

[vmod]

Originally Posted by Mathew Steine

I think the catch is the 3.2% are in the "Testing just started" phase. They are reserved, hence removed from the first post. When the results are returned Vassilis' stats page will update accordingly.

Correct. The script will count a conjecture as tested only after a search limit and the number of k's remaining are shown.

[MyDogBuster]

Table audited 9/1/2014 - It now matches the automated list

[KEP]

Please remove the R66 conjecture from the untested Riesel conjectures and if more "just started" bases remain in the untested list, then please remove them.

If this thread is not correct it makes it hard for me to show the correct progress in the Overall project progress thread at srbase.

Thank you.

[gd_barnes]

Originally Posted by KEP

Please remove the R66 conjecture from the untested Riesel conjectures and if more "just started" bases remain in the untested list, then please remove them.

If this thread is not correct it makes it hard for me to show the correct progress in the Overall project progress thread at srbase.

Thank you.

Done. The first post in these threads are manually updated and are intended as a guideline only. They are checked from time-to-time but there cannot be a 100% guarantee of their accuracy at all times. My suggestion is for you to use the automated status page at http://www.noprimeleftbehind.net/crus/tab/CRUS_tab.htm.