Predict M47

[Mini-Geek]

Originally Posted by philmoore

1) Purely a statistical deviation.

This one, IMHO. Assuming (the unproven statement that...) Mersenne primes are infinite (or that they're finite but the last one is very large), you'll eventually run into a group that are tightly bunched beyond normal statistical chance.

[T.Rex]

Originally Posted by nngs

I use a IDL route called LMFIT.

Sems that this is not a free tool... I have some Math tool on my PC. I'll see if it can help.

If I use A+B*n only (which will give me B=0.561...), the residuals show a sinusoidal pattern. So I add a sine term in my guess function.

Nice. Bob (Silverman) should say that it is not Math, but maybe you should send an email to Chris Caldwell or to Mr Wagstaff. Why not. Though this Poisson' process does not really help to find the next Mersenne, it is interesting to do some guesses. It's like doing Physic: you observe phenomenons, you find a law that seems to be in accordance with the data, and then you analyse the consequences of the law, and search if it can help to guess other things, and if it continues to represent the reality...
Good !
Tony

[sylvester]

Originally Posted by T.Rex

Sems that this is not a free tool...

From the name LMFIT one can make a guess that this was some implementation of the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm. Perhaps that will make your search easier.

[Uncwilly]

petrw1		29,000,000	11/1/2009	
ixfd64		43,112,609	12/1/2008	
Primeinator	47,300,000	10/1/2009	
Raman		50,000,000	3/1/2009   <50mil or w/in  next 6-9 mon
MiniGeek	50,000,000	9/1/2009	
uigrad		51,500,000	8/1/2009	
ATH		52,300,000	11/1/2009	
davieddy	60,000,000	1/1/2012	
MoooMoo		75,860,000	5/1/2013	
nngs		90,087,850		
henryzz				8/31/2009	
ET				12/20/2012	
Yzzyx 				1/19/2038	
Bob Silverman			pointless

[XYYXF]

88M, Nov 2011.

[Damian]

45M, next week.

[davieddy]

Originally Posted by Damian

45M, next week.

Nobody has returned a 44M test yet, so I don't see
who will discover 45M this week

[retina]

Originally Posted by davieddy

Nobody has returned a 44M test yet, so I don't see
who will discover 45M this week

Perhaps Damian meant M45 next week. As in, M47 will actually be the current M45 because two more primes less than the current M45 will be discovered next week.

[davieddy]

Originally Posted by retina

Perhaps Damian meant M45 next week. As in, M47 will actually be the current M45 because two more primes less than the current M45 will be discovered next week.

You mean a dyslexic confusion between 45M and M45?

Edit: No. On re-reading you were proposing an even more
bizarre explanation:)

[retina]

Originally Posted by davieddy

You mean a dyslexic confusion between 45M and M45?

Could be dyslexia, or just a typo.

Originally Posted by davieddy

Edit: No. On re-reading you were proposing an even more
bizarre explanation:)

If it is something bizarre then that is definitely what I meant

[ATH]

Originally Posted by davieddy

Nobody has returned a 44M test yet, so I don't see
who will discover 45M this week

I got 46M exponent and I use "First time test"-option.