Where is 'M45'? -poll 1

[retina]

Actually I am quite mystified as to what this poll achieves.

If, for example, I decide that M45 is in a range that only very few people have voted for, then what? Once the next poll begins am I supposed to re-think my guess in line with the masses? Is my guess suddenly less valid because everyone else says it is not in that range? Am I even allowed to vote again (not that I would want to since my guess is not listed anymore)?

Towards the end of the poll, and assuming that 1) everyone sticks with their initial guess and 2) those people decide not to vote again (since their guess is not in the new poll), then all you get is the same voters voting in the ever smaller sub-ranges until some narrow band is left with 2 votes and becomes the "winner".

To the original poster: Do tell as to what one expects to happen here when extrapolated to the end?

[davieddy]

I guess it's like one of those ESP experiments.

[davieddy]

Originally Posted by retina

Actually I am quite mystified as to what this poll achieves.

Sounds like you opted for a minority answer

[retina]

Originally Posted by davieddy

Sounds like you opted for a minority answer

My post is just an example. I'm not saying where I voted this round, but I think it is almost certain that nearly everyone (except the last two "lucky" people) will face the situation of being in the minority at some point.

[davieddy]

Originally Posted by retina

My post is just an example. I'm not saying where I voted this round, but I think it is almost certain that nearly everyone (except the last two "lucky" people) will face the situation of being in the minority at some point.

Well before voting, I mentally (at least) compute the most
probable range. You make your own luck.

[Uncwilly]

Originally Posted by jrk

Above 79,300,000

The is the Predict M45 thread, post guesses there. In a couple of days, I will post over there some info on the current guesses over there.


BTW, I think that we should wait for the polle to be 1 week old before starting the second poll.

[jrk]

Originally Posted by Uncwilly

The is the Predict M45 thread, post guesses there.

I know.

You wrote in the OP:

No guesses, predictions, or reasoning in this thread. Only voting and comments about the poll.

So I made my vote and posted it (it is a poll option). You didn't say votes had to be secret?

But I did post my specific guess in that other thread, too. : )

[Spherical Cow]

I know there are people in the forum that track the speed and progress of GIMPS- I wonder if one of them could put some time estimates for when the wavefront of the first LLR test crosses the boundaries of the poll’s groups (i.e., 43 million, 56 million, 79.3 million). Would be interesting; if so, Thanks.

Norm

[cheesehead]

Originally Posted by Spherical Cow

time estimates for when the wavefront of the first LLR test crosses the boundaries of the poll’s groups (i.e., 43 million,

Forty-three million has come and gone. The assignments wavefront is over 43.5 million, and there are results already being reported in the 43.3 million range.

http://mersenne.org/primenet/


(Sung to the theme tune of that great TV western, "Rawhide")

Testin', testin', testin' ...
Keep those 'ponents testin' ...
Keep those 'ponents testin' ...

Mur-saaaaane!

Don't try to fricassee 'em ...
Tee-eff, ell-ell, dee-cee 'em ...
But there is no end to the road ...

Mur-saaaaaaane!

Mur-saaaaaaane!

...

(Yes, my lyrics could be improved. "Fricassee" is in especial need of substitution, but remember to rhyme the next line!)

- - - - -

The original lyrics (of the full song, only part of which was used in the TV show theme) are at:

http://www.lyricsondemand.com/tvthem...idelyrics.html

http://www.culttelly.co.uk/lyrics/rawhide.html

The following site also has lyrics, but with at least one interesting difference from the above versions, probably due to aurally misunderstanding a line:

http://www.azlyrics.us/249522

[m_f_h]

Originally Posted by davieddy

I guess it's like one of those ESP experiments.

!

You mean, if we all think very strongly that it should be 41021021, then it could be....? (In spite of nonzero residue? )

[davieddy]

Originally Posted by Spherical Cow

I know there are people in the forum that track the speed and progress of GIMPS- I wonder if one of them could put some time estimates for when the wavefront of the first LLR test crosses the boundaries of the poll’s groups (i.e., 43 million, 56 million, 79.3 million). Would be interesting; if so, Thanks.

Norm

Each million increase in exponent demands~21,000 tests.
GIMPS completes about 10 tests an hour.