Thread: Predict M52
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Old 2018-12-21, 21:20   #15
kriesel
 
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Mar 2017
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Using a variation of the strikingly consistent methodology for guessing M51, to make predictions about M52:
Code:
ID     Ballpark      Basis of ballpark                  Guess exp  Mod 8    Date guess        
52a    88,318,521    ratio of previous two               88318673    1    Jun 14, 2019    Flag Day    
52b   121,882,920    Approx expected ratio 1.47576*p51  121882753    1    May 21, 2025    Assuming 6 million/year first test range covered    
52c   402,143,506    A long stride, 521/107*p51         402143633    1    Mar 12, 2052    "                    "
These have been tweaked to be 1 mod 8, since the probabilities are better there as I recall. Yes: https://www.mersenneforum.org/showpo...2&postcount=53 by GP2.

They have fractions of interior ones bits averaging 0.468, near the trend for higher known Mersenne prime exponents (0.479 overall and declining).

The methodology for predicting M51 was 100% consistent in selecting exponents that did not produce M1, and at least 2 out of 3 did not predict prime numbers. (What's 40 years of hunting, beginning with a programmable calculator to play with the low end.)
I predict M52 will be none of these new guesses.

If I squint a bit, it looks a little like Murphy of Murphy's law making a certain hand gesture in GP2's right digit hexadecimal histogram.
But hey, we're in it for the fun and learning, not fame or fortune.

Last fiddled with by kriesel on 2018-12-21 at 21:30
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