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Old 2003-09-15, 23:34   #6
NickGlover
 
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Aug 2002
Richland, WA

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I understand the algorithm you are using and I agree that is fairly accurate, but I'm not convinced it is accurate enough to say that the error rate is not still increasing with exponent size. I'd be willing to concede that the error rates for the 7M and 8M ranges are probably not going to change very much, but I don't see how we can conclude that the error rate for the 9M range is definitely not going to end up greater than 4%.

I just don't trust this type of prediction when there may be a bias one way or the other with the exponents that have had enough tests run on them to be used in your data.

I do think it is likely that the error rates will likely level off/drop over time simply because:
(1) George has improved Prime95/mprime error checking over time.
(2) I think error rates are mostly a function of runtime for an exponent, and I think average runtimes are levelling off if not dropping over time (which was not the case early in the project's history).

However, it is possible that these factors may be countered (at least in the 7M to 20M ranges) by the fact that processors in the last few years have been running hotter than they did in the past due to greater competition among the CPU makers.
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