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Old 2011-04-12, 17:09   #55
mdettweiler
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Aug 2007
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gd_barnes View Post
Also, reference clumps followed by droughts and vice versa in something that is randomly distributed: In the famous words of one well-known mathetmatician here: pure jibberish. A clump can be just as easily followed by another clump instead of a drought, which makes it even a larger clump. The same applies to droughts. Any attempt to start testing after a long drought in anticipation of a coming clump is akin to the gambler's fallacy.
Well, to more precisely elaborate on what I meant, I wasn't meaning to say that a clump is necessarily "due" after a long drought...just that, quite often, once you first find one, you may well have hit a clump. (i.e., you can't use it to predict anything until you're right on top of it) But indeed, you're right, it's all very unmathematical...in other words, "jibberish".

Last fiddled with by mdettweiler on 2011-04-12 at 17:09
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