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Old 2021-08-17, 09:00   #3442
greenskull's Avatar
Apr 2019

32·72 Posts

I suggest turning the forecasting into a game. Just for fun :)

Any Diviners when they wish, can make their predictions about the moment of the future event -- the Moment of Truth. There can be any number of predictions.

Obviously, the closer we are to the Moment of Truth (the shorter the Distance), the more reliable and accurate it can be predicted (less Error).

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Therefore, we should take into account not only the Error, but also the Distance with which the prediction was made.

So I suggest:
1) To calculate the ratio of the Error in Prediction to the Distance from which this Prediction was made (Errorᵢ/Distanceᵢ)
2) To calculate the average of the ratios – to divide the resulting sum by the Total Number of Predictions N made by the Diviner

In order for the Rate to work on the principle of the more talented the Diviner, the higher the value
3) To take the reciprocal value from the received one in 2). Or in other words, to flip the ratio.

The one whose Diviner Talent Rate to the accomplished Moment of Truth turns out to be the highest is the winner.

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The Diviner’s Talent Rate in the total number of Diviner’s Predictions encourages more accurate hits from a greater distance.
And no matter how many Predictions the Diviner made, it is important how accurate Diviner’s Predictions were, taking into account the Distances from which they were made.

1) All predictions are in UTC time (it is a kind of GMT with no summertime shift).
Date and time can be specified. If the time is not specified, then we count 12:00 (noon time).
2) If the Diviner leaves their previous prediction unchanged, it is not taken into account.
If the Diviner changes their prediction relative to the previous one, then, of course, it is taken into account. Even if this prediction coincides with any one made before the previous one.

As for the prize, it can be considered :)

PS Kriesel, "gimps progress and rate.pdf" -- nice report :) Thank you!

Last fiddled with by greenskull on 2021-08-17 at 09:15
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