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Old 2008-12-29, 23:42   #20
A Sunny Moo
mdettweiler's Avatar
Aug 2007

3·2,083 Posts

Originally Posted by gd_barnes View Post
I think you are doing some sort of that new "fuzzy" math again.

Now, Max, you should no better than to debate me on something math-related. It'd be about like me trying to debate you on something computer-related. lmao

Of course this is about 10-12 hours later but let me show you how it is done (lol)...

As of 6 PM EST:

Port 5000 has 48358 remaining knpairs! << -----
knpairs.txt - Size: 531962
Last Updated: 12/29/2008 3:15:39 PM
first k/n pair 663 602715
last k/n pair 725 620000

From progress report of yesterday - 3711 pairs processed
From progress report of 2 days ago - 3698 pairs processed
Analysis of current users processing: Same as yesterday per progress report today.

Therefore estimate - 3700 pairs / day << -----
(same as my estimate early this morning)

Actual estimate:

48358 / 3700 = ~13.1 days

It's about 1/2-day less then the 13.6-13.7 day estimate (rounded to 14 days) that I gave before...exactly what one would expect for an estimate 10-12 hours later. So ETA would be Jan. 11th around 7-8 PM EST if no one, including me, touched their machines before then, assuming no increase in testing times / fftlen changes, etc. for the ever-increasing n-range. If you account for slightly increasing testing times, I'm speculating that might add another 2-8 hours so this estimate is acutally a bit low.

I think the problem in your estimate is that you can't use n-ranges processed per day to get an accurate estimate because what is returned to the server can vary widely from one minute to the next or one hour to the next.

Good luck debunking this one!

And finally...I know you probably won't but I just like to rib you so don't take anything personally. More than anything, I just want to make sure you know a way to come up with a more accurate estimate like this.

Gary most recent estimate of 7 days was, in fact, determined using a method similar to yours. How we came up with different answers is beyond me...maybe I plugged something into a calculator the wrong way.

Oh, wait...I just figured out where I went wrong! I took the # of k/n pairs processed yesterday on IB5000, but divided them into the # of k/n pairs remaining in IB400!

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