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Old 2020-10-15, 08:24   #2167
gd_barnes's Avatar
May 2007
Kansas; USA

19×541 Posts

Originally Posted by VBCurtis View Post
I expect 100-120 days to reach 2500, and less than twice that to reach 10,000.
I hope you're planning on adding a whole lot of resources for n=2500-10K. :-)

n=2500-10K is 3 times the n-range of n=1-2500.

A test at half the n-range for n=2500-10K (n=6250) would take 25 times as long as a test at half the n-range for n=1-2500 (n=1250) since the n-value is 5 times as big.

Extrapolating: 3 times the n-range x 25 times the testing time = 75 times as long for n=2500-10K vs. n=1-2500.

Allowing for a reduction in k's remaining on the higher range perhaps cut that by one-half to two-thirds so maybe 25-50 times as long.

I realize that this is overly simplified but I've found it to be a reasonable predictor of estimating a higher n-range after completing a lower n-range.

Perhaps I'm off base since you're going from 20 million k's at the beginning to 100,000 k's remaining at n=2500. But most of those 20 million k's are very quickly eliminated so I feel it's still a valid analysis.

My rough guess: If it takes you 4 months to complete to n=2500, with the same amount of resources it will take you (4x30* months= 120 months or) 10 years to complete to n=10K plus or minus a few years.

Feel free to stop at n=2500 if you'd like. :-)

*I chose 30 since it's on the lower end of the 25-50 times as long estimate.
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