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Old 2010-07-06, 23:53   #4
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Jul 2009

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Originally Posted by cheesehead View Post
No, those odds do _not_ "put it" any amount of time "in the future". That is not the way to interpret that number.

Are you thinking that because the earthquake has a (I'm not sure how to interpret your description, so here's a guess) 1/4000 chance of happening in the next year, that there must necessarily be 4000 years before it happens? That's not how it goes. All the 1/4000 figure means is that it's a simple way of conveying some persons' prediction over a certain time period, not over 4000 years.

The Cascadia fault is not performing arithmetic. It doesn't care about the 1/4000 figure. It doesn't have to count up to 4000 before it slips again. It could slip tomorrow.
sorry not thinking and philmore I'm saying they say that about the whole cascadia fault not just the part you talked of.
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