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Old 2010-07-06, 21:12   #2
cheesehead
 
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"Richard B. Woods"
Aug 2002
Wisconsin USA

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Quote:
Originally Posted by science_man_88 View Post
even these odds put it over 4000 years in the future so why are they talking of it happening soon ?
No, those odds do _not_ "put it" any amount of time "in the future". That is not the way to interpret that number.

Are you thinking that because the earthquake has a (I'm not sure how to interpret your description, so here's a guess) 1/4000 chance of happening in the next year, that there must necessarily be 4000 years before it happens? That's not how it goes. All the 1/4000 figure means is that it's a simple way of conveying some persons' prediction over a certain time period, not over 4000 years.

The Cascadia fault is not performing arithmetic. It doesn't care about the 1/4000 figure. It doesn't have to count up to 4000 before it slips again. It could slip tomorrow.
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