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Old 2009-01-21, 14:26   #34
gd_barnes
 
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May 2007
Kansas; USA

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mini-Geek View Post
What's the average weight (or combined weight or something) of the k's in 1600-1700 vs the other k=100 ranges? Also, I'd bet that if somebody worked the math out, this is bound to happen some time or another, just like GIMPS's two primes two weeks apart, which seems impossibly unlikely, but it worked out to be a decent probability over as much time as GIMPS has been around and assuming 1 prime/year (which they shouldn't 'expect', by prime heuristics, but they seem to be in a dense area of Mersennes).

I'm not sure of the avg. weight but it'd be a relatively quick excercise to do it by looking at Rieselprime.org. For 50 k's in each 100k range, I doubt the average is much different than any other 100k range. Even if it was, it wouldn't explain such a deviation. If you want and have time, feel free to post your findings here.

You think exactly like I do. I know what are random events seem like non-random because there are so many multidues of possibilities for those events. People frequently associate such random events with miracles, mystic happenings, etc., which is completely bogus.

This is likely just one of those "random" fluctuations from the mean as though you got 75-80 heads when flipping a random coin 100 times. If you did 1 million tests of 100 coin flips, you'll most likely get 75-80 heads at some point. It'd be easy enough to do the math to figure the odds of this happening but I don't have time right now. For all I know, it could take 1 billion such tests on average.

In the prime number world though, I don't think we have clear proof yet that these things are completely random yet so when apparently non-random "clumpings" occur, it makes even the most logical amongst us wonder a little bit.

From my 21-month experience in prime searching, I believe this is the most unusual clumping that I have seen. But since I've had 21 months to witness such a thing, it's probably random. (lol)

Edit: I just noticed that Chris found a new prime on port 8000 and guess what: It's k=1600-1700...that's TEN consecutive new primes in that range. Now I can say that primes are very VERY strange.


Gary

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