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Old 2013-09-29, 12:31   #5
TheCount
 
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Sep 2013
Perth, Au.

11000102 Posts
Talking Probability

Quote:
Originally Posted by gd_barnes View Post
Don't R702 and R916 have a much higher weight? They also have one k remaining at n=100K.
R702 and R916 are in the list of "Top 20 Conjectures with 1k Remaining by Highest Weight":
http://www.noprimeleftbehind.net/cru...20.htm#Table25

As stated in my post I only calculated the probabilities based on these tables:
- "Top 20 Conjectures with 1k Remaining by Highest Conjectured k": http://www.noprimeleftbehind.net/cru...0.htm#Table61; and,
- "Top 20 Conjectures with 1k Remaining by Lowest Conjectured k: http://www.noprimeleftbehind.net/cru...20.htm#Table62.

I've only spent a few hours looking at the CRUS website so I might not be optimally searching yet.
This table looks more comprehensive: http://www.noprimeleftbehind.net/cru...s-unproven.htm
I plan to start a 2k's search next, so maybe I'll base it on that table.

Anyway, since you bought it up 32*702^n-1 has weight 2338, 78*916^n-1 has weight 2313. They are both tested to 100k.
If you test R702 to 200k the chance of finding a prime and so proving the conjecture is 14.12%.
If you test R916 to 200k the chance of finding a prime and so proving the conjecture is 13.43%.

My calculations are based on the Prime Number Theory. I posted this method on PrimeGrid 6 months ago. No one's told me I am wrong (or right) yet:
http://www.primegrid.com/forum_thread.php?id=5093
http://www.primegrid.com/forum_thread.php?id=4935

Why don't you add probabilities to the CRUS tables?
If your looking for a result rely on probability. If your looking to see how quick you can test a range look at difficulty.
Probability does not take account length of time to test an n or tests to be done in a range, just the chance you'll find a great result.
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