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Old 2021-09-02, 19:48   #3457
kriesel
 
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Mar 2017
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Sorting https://www.mersenne.org/assignments...execm=1&extf=1 by estimated completion,
1) look toward the end: latest completion date estimate for which expire time is after ETA (indicating probable completion before reassignment) is 2021-09-26.
2) look toward the beginning: latest expiration date for those that have stopped updating days or weeks ago is 24 days from now, so also 2021-09-26 (57836003) to expiration. It and similar will be assigned someone with a track record of completing within 10 days, so unless poached (providing earlier completion up to 57885161), or abandoned by the new recipient delaying it with another expiration/reassignment, it will take until ~Oct 7 or sooner, probably ~Oct 2. (Drkirby and some others have hardware that can do such an exponent in ~1 day.)
3) Likely completion date of all remaining exponents below Mp#48* is the later of the dates from the two points above.
4) All these exponents are cat 0 now; recycled by the server if not started within 10 days or completed within 30.

The above is quite consistent with kriesel's previous projections produced by a completely different method (currently indicating ~2021-09-28).

Greenskull's revised projection is Nov 16, 40 days later than Oct 7.
For greenskull's projection to be accurate or optimistic, multiple expirations or recycles must occur on the same remaining exponent(s), and no poaches that offset them. For example, 2021-09-26 expiration + 30 days second expiration is 2021-10-26, still short of Nov 16 by 3 weeks.

The completion rate in the final ~12 days of reaching 56M was ~1.7/day. There are now 52 left to Mp#48*; 52/1.7 ~ 30 days -> ~Oct 2. (Daily rate in the month before the final ~2 weeks was ~2.34/day. Averaging for ~4 weeks, ~2/day, gives ~26 days, ~Sep 28.)
Quote:
Originally Posted by slandrum View Post
There are assignments that will expire in mid October
Latest expiration is now Sep 29, and that one is estimated to complete on Sep 4.
Attached Files
File Type: pdf mp48verificationmilestoneestimate-2021-09-02.pdf (31.3 KB, 20 views)

Last fiddled with by kriesel on 2021-09-02 at 19:56
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