Since I'm relativisticallly new to this thread, let me express my views by asking some questions about climate change;

Is Climate Change a Problem or NOT?

Can global warming or cooling correct itself without any human counteractionary intervention?

Is there any reason to believe that dangerous extremes will actually be attained?

How do we know that second order projections won't contradict the first order warning signs?

Is there any real reason to be worried about it?

Just some questions I have. They are just for demonstration purposes, not expecting any specific conclusions,
nor do they seek detailed information or documented evidence. Just soliciting a short overview of opinion.

Have you read this thread?

:razz:

[QUOTE=Xyzzy;415355]Have you read this thread?
:razz:[/QUOTE]

I know I deserve that, but it's a long long thread.....

[QUOTE=davar55;415354]Since I'm relativisticallly new to this thread, let me express my views by asking some questions about climate change;[/QUOTE]

Go for it. I'm not a scientist, but I'll take "first bat".

[QUOTE=davar55;415354]Is Climate Change a Problem or NOT?[/QUOTE]

1. Nobody knows. And it can mean different things to different people.

2. Those living close to the equator already suffer a great deal of ambient heat, raising water, and storms.

3. Those living close to the north pole are eagerly rubbing their hands, and staking claims.

3.1. North-West Passage, anyone?

[QUOTE=davar55;415354]Can global warming or cooling correct itself without any human counteractionary intervention?[/QUOTE]

Sure. Absolutely no problem.

It might get too hot and/or too cold for too long for /most/ life to survive.

But some will. Almost certainly.

[QUOTE=davar55;415354]Is there any reason to believe that dangerous extremes will actually be attained?

How do we know that second order projections won't contradict the first order warning signs? [U][B]Is there any real reason to be worried about it?[/B][/U]

Just some questions I have. They are just for demonstration purposes, not expecting any specific conclusions,
nor do they seek detailed information or documented evidence. Just soliciting a short overview of opinion.[/QUOTE]

If I may please reflect the question...

If there was a chance you might be within an object more massive than you travelling at high speed which decelerates rapidly. Would you be better off strapped to the more massive object (travelling at the same speed) or not?

[QUOTE=chalsall;415361]3. Those living close to the north pole are eagerly rubbing their hands, and staking claims.
[/QUOTE]
That is literary what Putin did, when asked by a journalist, rubbing his hands and said something along the lines "waaa... so much fertile land in Siberia becoming good for agriculture"...:smile:

I'm enough of a scientist to know what's reasonably sure and what's uncertain.

Climate Change refers to global warming due to increased levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. CO2 is the main greenhouse gas, there are others.

The increased levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are certain, it's easy to measure accurately.

The Earth has warmed significantly since significant greenhouse gas release started. Exactly how much it has warmed is harder to say, temperature varies from year to year due to weather, volcanic eruptions, etc. And regional effects are less certain.

What other effects it may have had are harder to say. It may have caused the climate to become more variable as well as warmer but that's not sure.

Predicting what will happen in the future after further releases is very uncertain. It's unlikely to be good news, but hard to say how bad it could get.

Chris

[QUOTE=chris2be8;415560]I'm enough of a scientist to know what's reasonably sure and what's uncertain.

Climate Change refers to global warming due to increased levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. CO2 is the main greenhouse gas, there are others.
The increased levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are certain, it's easy to measure accurately.
The Earth has warmed significantly since significant greenhouse gas release started. Exactly how much it has warmed is harder to say, temperature varies from year to year due to weather, volcanic eruptions, etc. And regional effects are less certain.
What other effects it may have had are harder to say. It may have caused the climate to become more variable as well as warmer but that's not sure.
Predicting what will happen in the future after further releases is very uncertain. It's unlikely to be good news, but hard to say how bad it could get.
[/QUOTE]
Sensible answer.
Why is it unlikely to be good news, even if we take only minor positive actions to deter climate change?
Isn't it more than possible that climate change will improve humanity's lot? That's my opinion,
but I'm open to other opinions.

[QUOTE=davar55;415574]Sensible answer.
Why is it unlikely to be good news, even if we take only minor positive actions to deter climate change?
[B]Isn't it more than possible that climate change will improve humanity's lot?[/B] That's my opinion,
but I'm open to other opinions.[/QUOTE]

Tell that to the people who are currently mass-migrating from North Africa. Part of the underpinnings of the Syria debacle are drought and crop failure. Certainly, there are political/human rights motivations, as well. However, political crises are often driven by human crises such as failing food supplies. The [URL="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_Revolution"]French Revolution[/URL] provides an example:[INDENT]"The [URL="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Causes_of_the_French_Revolution"]causes of the French Revolution[/URL] are complex and are still debated among historians. Following the [URL="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seven_Years%27_War"]Seven Years' War[/URL] and the [URL="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Revolutionary_War"]American Revolutionary War[/URL],[URL="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_Revolution#cite_note-4"][4][/URL] the French government was deeply in debt and attempted to restore its financial status through unpopular taxation schemes. [B]Years of bad harvests leading up to the Revolution also inflamed popular resentment[/B] of the privileges enjoyed by the clergy and the aristocracy."
[/INDENT]Interestingly, the first article linked in the quotation above, cites the [URL="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Causes_of_the_French_Revolution#Deregulation_and_hunger"]deregulation of the grain markets[/URL] as a contributing factor to popular turmoil. While control of the markets was reestablished, the "Little Ice Age", induced by a massive Icelandic eruption, caused continued shortages of food in the lead-up to revolution.[INDENT]The fear of famine became an ever-present dread for the lower strata of the Third Estate, and rumors of the "Pacte de Famine" to starve the poor were still rampant and readily believed.[URL="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Causes_of_the_French_Revolution#cite_note-Doyle121-31"][31][/URL] Mere rumors of food shortage led to the [URL="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R%C3%A9veillon_riots"]Réveillon riots[/URL] in April 1789. Rumors of a plot aiming to destroy wheat crops in order to starve the population provoked the [URL="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Fear"]Great Fear[/URL] in the summer of 1789. The hunger and despair of the Parisian women was also the original impetus for the [URL="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Women%27s_March_on_Versailles"]Women's March on Versailles[/URL] in October 1789, they wanted not just one meal but the assurance that bread would once again be plentiful and cheap.[URL="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Causes_of_the_French_Revolution#cite_note-Soboul155-32"][32][/URL]

The two years prior to the revolution (1788–89) saw meager harvests and harsh winters, possibly because of a strong [URL="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Ni%C3%B1o"]El Niño[/URL] cycle [URL="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Causes_of_the_French_Revolution#cite_note-33"][33][/URL] caused by the 1783 [URL="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laki"]Laki[/URL] eruption in [URL="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iceland"]Iceland[/URL].[URL="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Causes_of_the_French_Revolution#cite_note-34"][34][/URL] The [I][URL="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age"]Little Ice Age[/URL][/I] also affected farmers' choices of crops to plant; in other parts of Europe, peasant farmers had adopted the [URL="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potato"]potato[/URL] as its [URL="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Staple_crop"]staple crop[/URL].[/INDENT]While our current global situation is moving in the other direction, too warm can be just as devastating as too cold. (The Laki eruption not only cooled the northern hemisphere, it blanketed northern Europe with a toxic "dry fog" comprised of sulfur oxides and fluorine gas. People, crops, and livestock were killed.)

We saw a chart once that showed how removing the tetraethyl lead from gasoline caused a dramatic decrease in the amount of lead in the air. (The chart showed a sharp rise from about nothing in 1920 to a peak around 1970 or so.) This is encouraging to us because it shows that (over time) we can make a difference, even for something as big as global warming.

A corny story: [url]https://eventsforchange.wordpress.com/2011/06/05/the-starfish-story-one-step-towards-changing-the-world/[/url]

[SIZE="1"](We like corny stories!)[/SIZE]

Another similar story involves acid rain and NOx and SO[SUB]2[/SUB]. Even though the majority of NOx was produced by cars and trucks, merely reducing the amount produced by powerplants (by a significant amount) and burning lower sulfur coal was able to reduce the amount of acid rain to nearly zero.

Later gasoline was reformulated as well in most of the country which further reduced NOx emissions (but not, apparently, Volkswagons).

It's one of the unsung triumphs of environmental legislation. Even the most conservative estimates of just the monetary costs involved in the clean air act show many magnitudes of benefits vs. costs. We shouldn't be arguing about whether these laws can counteract the worst problems of Climate Change, but rather what is the best method to achieve those goals (and you may remember that I think Germany has done the worst job possible, so if we do anything it will be better--only by doing nothing will we be the worst.)

Global warming algorithm:

1. More people make more CO2
2. Planet heats
3. Half of the people die
4. Less people make less CO2
5. Planet cools

Big deal!