4.0 to 4.5 quake expected in San Francisco area October 20-24 2006.
 

4.0 to 4.5 quake expected in San Francisco area October 20-24 2006.

Animal agitation level peaked on the 15th of October. Note; Animal behaviour is the most extreme 6 days before an earthquake occurs, so the 21st would be the best day for the quake to happen.

Light 4.0-4.9 Noticeable shaking of indoor items, rattling noises. Significant damage unlikely. :smile:

More info.
[url]www.quakeprediction.com[/url]
[url]http://www.quakeprediction.com[/url]

4.5 earthquake hits 75 miles N of San Francisco
 

4.5 earthquake hits 75 miles N of San Francisco

[url]http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/recenteqs/.../nc40190077.htm[/url]

A light earthquake occurred at 10:00:08 AM (PDT) on Friday, October 20, 2006. The magnitude 4.5 event occurred 7 km (4 miles) WNW of Cobb, CA.
The hypocentral depth is 4 km ( 3 miles).

[url]http://www.quakeprediction.com[/url]

Looks to me the predictions posted on the link you give are not very good. No better than chance. I think any PRNG could come up with predictions of the same quality and accuracy.

But I am willing to hear the explination about how animal behaviour affects earthquakes? Alternatively, perhaps it suggests that animal behaviour is predicting earthquakes 6 days in advance?

[quote=retina;89582]But I am willing to hear the explination about how animal behaviour affects earthquakes? Alternatively, perhaps it suggests that animal behaviour is predicting earthquakes 6 days in advance?[/quote]The latter. AFAIK the main theory about this is that the animals are sensing very-low-frequency or -high-frequency vibrations generated within the rocks next to the fault as the stress on them approaches the breaking point, perhaps as small fissures crack open.

If indeed it's actually happening (animal behavior predicting earthquakes), I think it's more likely that electromagnetic changes are being sensed than physical (seismic) vibrations. Geophysicists have been monitoring seismic activity long enough that a good precursor, or set of precursors, to significant earthquakes would probably have been noticed by now. Electromagnetic monitoring is more recent, and there is a lot of research left to do. One group making a serious effort is here:
[URL="http://www.quakefinder.com/"]http://www.quakefinder.com/[/URL]


Norm

:smile:
Seismic vibrations can be monitored on the Richter Scale and are spread all over the globe with varying intensity.
Electromagnetic monitoring (EMM) is more local and confined to an area of the quake in a reasonable radius.
In abnormal behaviour of animals and birds, the birds brains are sensitive to EMM but animals and reptiles are sensitive to seismic vibrations- take snakes for instance. They pick up vibrations with their forked tongues.
Mally :coffee:

I know for a 'fact' that animals can detect earthquakes in advance.

We have had a bird (falconparakeet) (valkparkiet in Dutch, no idea if it translates well :) ) Which about 1.5 hour prior to a minor earthquake in southern Netherlands began to squeel for no apparent reason. For the whole 1.5 hours, until the quake began.

It has never done it before, and has never done it afterwards...

[QUOTE=michaf;90445]It has never done it before, and has never done it afterwards...[/QUOTE]One data point? If you lived in New Zealand, Japan, the western US and Canada, parts of South America, etc. and this happen 25% of the time, then you have my interest.

Forgive me if I seem jaded, but I have personally experienced 2 6+, 1 5.7, and about another 10 5+.

[QUOTE=Uncwilly;90448]Forgive me if I seem jaded, but I have personally experienced 2 6+, 1 5.7, and about another 10 5+.[/QUOTE]

Yeah, Uncwilly's been through so many major quakes, when he orders pizza these days, he asks for "subducted crust."

Vow!
 

[QUOTE=Uncwilly;90448]One data point? If you lived in New Zealand, Japan, the western US and Canada, parts of South America, etc. and this happen 25% of the time, then you have my interest.

Forgive me if I seem jaded, but I have personally experienced 2 6+, 1 5.7, and about another 10 5+.[/QUOTE]
:surprised
10.5 ? where and when?
Its one for the Guiness book of records. :wink:
Mally :coffee:

[quote=mfgoode;90455]:surprised
10.5 ? where and when?
Its one for the Guiness book of records. :wink:
Mally :coffee:[/quote]
Are you joking or was what he meant lost in translation? I believe he meant he's been in 10 seperate ~5 magnitude earthquakes.:wink:

[QUOTE=Mini-Geek;90456]Are you joking or was what he meant lost in translation? I believe he meant he's been in 10 seperate ~5 magnitude earthquakes.:wink:[/QUOTE]That is correct and the 2 that are 6+ are 6.7 and 6.6, and the other was 5.9, not 5.7 :bounce wave:
I have had college class cancelled because of one quake and significant issues at work that shut down the facility because of another.

I have seen where, there was a noticable quake and the locals kept walking and started to guess the size and epicenter, while the visitors froze like statues. It was an aftershock of a 7.3

Some of the ones that I said were 5's were a 7.3, 7.1 (both at a distance), and one that I didn't realize was a 5.8

[QUOTE=Uncwilly;90448]One data point? If you lived in New Zealand, Japan, the western US and Canada, parts of South America, etc. and this happen 25% of the time, then you have my interest.

Forgive me if I seem jaded, but I have personally experienced 2 6+, 1 5.7, and about another 10 5+.[/QUOTE]

It has been the only quake I've been in (iirc it was about magnitude 2 or 3, I just noticed being shaked in my bed)

But it sure was a fact that the bird acted VERY strange :)
For me, it was enough evidence, but surely, one data-point hardly suffice for scientific proof...

Just had a 2.6 quake Sunday night at 9:34 pm Pacific time centered within the city limits of Portland, Oregon.
Almost right under my neighborhood.

2.6 isn't much, but I felt it. It was a really strange 2.6:[LIST][*]one second of faint shivering, [*]a very sharp vertical jolt shook the floor, [*]then a very sharp sideways jolt rattled the windows and shook the walls.[*]About 5 seconds total.[/LIST]:maybeso:

4.0 to 4.3 earthquake expected in NE Los Angeles Area Nov 13-15
 

4.0 to 4.3 earthquake expected in NE Los Angeles Area Nov 13-15

Within 50 mile radius of Mt. Baldy in NE Los Angeles area.

Earthquake most likely on the 13th or 14th of November.

More info at [url]http://www.quakeprediction.com[/url]

[QUOTE=lukethomas;91198]4.0 to 4.3 earthquake expected in NE Los Angeles Area Nov 13-15

Within 50 mile radius of Mt. Baldy in NE Los Angeles area.

Earthquake most likely on the 13th or 14th of November. [/QUOTE]

Whoop-dee-flipping-doo. Who cares?

[quote=rogue;91211]Whoop-dee-flipping-doo. Who cares?[/quote][i]Predicting[/i] earthquakes is a major advance in our planetary knowledge. :wink:

[QUOTE=cheesehead;91260][i]Predicting[/i] earthquakes is a major advance in our planetary knowledge. :wink:[/QUOTE]

I agree with that, but people are always predicting earthquakes in California. Many earthquakes occur there every day, but most are too small to be felt by humans. I'm just not that impressed.

BTW, why does this person only post about earthquake predictions? Is he promoting this website?

I should have written that [i]demonstrably accurate, reliable, repeatable[/i] earthquake prediction is a major advance (in progress) in our planetary knowledge.