Predict M43
 

Ok, folks, moving beyond the poll, let us try to predict M43.


[B]THE RULES OF THE GAME:[/B][list=1][*][COLOR=DarkRed]Post your guess here, [B]no[/B] PM'ing me.[/COLOR][*][COLOR=Olive]Your guess [B]must be a prime number[/B] (we are guessing the exponent).[/COLOR][*][COLOR=Red]The guesses are for 'M43', that is: the next reported Mersenne prime that is larger than the 42nd known Mersenne Prime, namely 2[spoiler][sup]25,964,951[/sup][/spoiler]-1[/COLOR][*][COLOR=Orange]You can [B]not[/B] guess a number that has already been guessed.[/COLOR][*][COLOR=DarkOrchid]If there is a tie (i.e. 2 posts are equally close and meet all other rules), the [B]first[/B] post gets it.[/COLOR][*][COLOR=Sienna]You may post 1 guess every 90 days (after posting a guess you must wait 90 days, not wait til a new quarter).[/COLOR][*][COLOR=DarkSlateGray]All guesses received within the 48 hours before M43 is reported are [B]hereby disqualified[/B] (to prevent cheating).[/COLOR][*][COLOR=DarkOrange]The discoverer of M43 will have all guesses posted more than 4 days after they were assigned the expo that is reported to be prime, [B]hereby disqualified.[/B][/COLOR][*][COLOR=RoyalBlue]If the prime that is reported fails the rechecks, those disqualified in 7 and 8 will be restored.[/COLOR][*][COLOR=Gray]Commentary should be [B]greatly restrained[/B].[/COLOR][*][COLOR=Magenta]Further rules may be added if needed.[/COLOR][/list]

From time to time, I may post stats on the guesses.

My wild guess is the same I tried for 42: 28,756,447

Same as my previous last: 39447007

My guess for the exponent is: 25,964,951

[QUOTE=Primeinator]My guess for the exponent is: 25,964,951[/QUOTE]
Bad guess, a number can't be larger than itself.

Guess again, we are guessing at M43, not M42.

oohh oops! I misread sorry. I feel really stupid and absent minded now... :sad:
Umm...my guess is 27,927,307

28658771

Just because its a neat prime....34,353,637

Poll: When Will M43 Be Discovered?
 

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I predict 61,042,873. A huge dry spell that will test our patience.

33,526,837

34,567,901

Same as my last one:
41,991,811

29713781

:coffee:

28,595,681

34445051

I vote "[i]Second Half of 2005"[/i]

In line with my prediction for M43 (M41062139), I voted for 2007 or later. Unless in the meanwhile some really big players come to the scene ...

41062139

43212823

As I previously said in regard to an earlier poll, my record on publicly-posted predictions is just [i]awful[/i]. So I voted "2007 or later" for the good of the cause.

[QUOTE=Uncwilly][color=red]The guesses are for 'M43', that is: the next reported Mersenne prime that is larger than the 42nd known Mersenne Prime, namely 2[spoiler][sup]25,964,951[/sup][/spoiler]-1[/quote][/color]
But what if the next reported Mersenne prime is [u]smaller[/u] [color=#ff0000]than the 42nd known Mersenne Prime, namely 2[spoiler][sup]25,964,951[/sup][/spoiler]-1?[/color]

Then [b]that number[/b] is M42, and 2^25,964,951-1 is M43.

Thus, I think it should be valid to guess 2^25,964,951-1 as M43.

It's a more likely result, though, because every new Mersenne prime < 2^25,964,951-1 will do.

[QUOTE=cheesehead]
But what if the next reported Mersenne prime is [u]smaller[/u] [color=#ff0000]than the 42nd known Mersenne Prime, namely 2[sup]25,964,951[/sup]-1?[/color][/QUOTE]

If it is smaller it does not fit the definition I laid down and thus is not 'M43' (note the quotes), this is why it is defined as such. If one is found smaller, it has no effect on this thread.

A quick estimate from the status page indicates that the expected number of new primes from exponents below the 10 million digit range is still around 0.75, so one more prime in this range shouldn't be too surprising. In that case, I would expect another discovery before the end of 2006, otherwise, not until 2007.

[quote]I predict 61,042,873. A huge dry spell that will test our patience.[/quote]

I agree. 60534217

Just an interesting note (as I've already made my prediction above):
GIMPS has M42 under its belt, and the numbers straddling 42424242 are twin primes (42424241 and 42424243). Maybe one of those is the next exponent...that would give us a moderately long dry spell.

Norm

41979277

[QUOTE=Spherical Cow]Just an interesting note (as I've already made my prediction above):
GIMPS has M42 under its belt, and the numbers straddling 42424242 are twin primes (42424241 and 42424243). Maybe one of those is the next exponent...that would give us a moderately long dry spell.

Norm[/QUOTE]

M42424241 has a factor: 165963630793

E.T.

My guess is -- 35717893.

29619697

I voted second half of 2005 as it looks like GIMPS is finding primes faster. It was less than a year from M41 to M42....and who knows, maybe someone will get really lucky.

Curse the 90 day rule..... :rant: :furious:

bump

bump

[QUOTE=Uncwilly]bump[/QUOTE]
I'll be the first to guess M44 = 45219803

[QUOTE=Prime95]I predict 61,042,873. A huge dry spell that will test our patience.[/QUOTE]


Oh boy, I get the award for worst prediction :banana: :banana:

If we define that it is only discovered after verification, then I still have chances to be on the winning side. :lol:

We can put some of the more obvious non-candidates to bed:

[quote="Andreas Schinde"]My wild guess is the same I tried for 42: 28,756,447[/quote]
M28756447 has a factor: 914455014601

[quote="Spherical Cow"]Just because its a neat prime....34,353,637[/quote]
M34353637 has a factor: 1582379159885692591

[quote="ATH"]28,595,681[/quote]Uh, not even close:
M28595681 has a factor: 171574087
M28595681 has a factor: 34543582649
M28595681 has a factor: 14990313511097

[quote="Guilherme"]33,526,837[/quote]
M33526837 has a factor: 536429393

[quote="jfollas"]29619697[/quote]
M29619697 has a factor: 2843490913

I only sieved to 64 bits, so some of the remaining ones surely have smallish factors remaining to be discovered.

This poll needs to be closed, its data is being poisoned.

Poll closed. Doesn't take super powers to guess the date anymore...

Alex

[QUOTE=akruppa]Poll closed. Doesn't take super powers to guess the date anymore...

Alex[/QUOTE]

Actually, it takes superpowers to guess the correct date - will it be 12/15 or 12/16? :redface:

I predict no dry spell and M43 will be around 2^{30402457}-1. And if I should also guess when it will be verified, then my guess is that roughly in 20 minutes.

...And now that one independent-software-and-hardware run has completed and verified the result, this thread is officially closed. Congratulations to the discoverer CurtisC, George and all of GIMPS!