[QUOTE=Till;541688]If we assume that the growth continues as before, then by Jun. 12 we will have 1.000.000.000 cases and 50m deaths worldwide.[/QUOTE]We might already have 1B cases, just that we haven't tested enough people yet to see if that is so.

[url=https://scopeblog.stanford.edu/2020/04/02/whats-a-virus-anyway-part-1-the-bare-bones-basics/]What's a virus, anyway? Part 1: The bare-bones basics[/url] - Stanford Medicine

This is interesting - why soapy washing works well to remove some viruses but not others:
[quote]Some viruses also wear greasy overcoats, called envelopes, made from stolen shards of the membranes of the last cell they infected. Influenza and hepatitis C viruses have envelopes, as do coronaviruses, herpesviruses and HIV. Rhinoviruses, which are responsible for most common colds, and polioviruses don't. Here's a practical takeaway: Enveloped viruses particularly despise soap because it disrupts greasy membranes. Soap and water are to these viruses what exhaling garlic is to a vampire, which is why washing your hands works wonders.[/quote]

The link to Part 2 at bottom of the article is missing, here is that:

[url=https://scopeblog.stanford.edu/2020/04/03/how-coronaviruses-infect-us-how-infectious-viruses-created-us/]What’s a virus, anyway? Part 2: How coronaviruses infect us — and how viruses created us[/url]

Thanks for the informative links. :smile:

Coronavirus: Potential vaccine generates enough antibodies to fight off virus, first peer-reviewed study suggests:

[url]https://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/coronavirus-vaccine-pittsburgh-university-lancet-study-covid-pandemic-a9442536.html[/url]


Hmm this sounds too good to be true, but lets hope it is just exactly good enough to be true.

[url=https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/30/science.abb6936]Quantifying SARS-CoV-2 transmission suggests epidemic control with digital contact tracing[/url] | Science Magazine

[i]"We conclude that viral spread is too fast to be contained by manual contact tracing, but could be controlled if this process was faster, more efficient and happened at scale. A contact-tracing App which builds a memory of proximity contacts and immediately notifies contacts of positive cases can achieve epidemic control if used by enough people."[/i]

Estimates R[sub]0[/sub] ~= 2.0, and breaks said estimate down into 4 additive subcomponents, whose individual R[sub]0[/sub] values are listed in square brackets:

1. Pre-symptomatic [0.9]: infections resulting from contact with infectees who have not yet begun showing symptoms, but will go on to do so;

2. Symptomatic [0.8]: infections resulting from contact with infectees who are showing symptoms;

3. Environmental [0.2]: infections resulting from contact with virus in the environment (e.g. on surfaces);

4. Asymptomatic [0.1]: infections resulting from contact with infectees who never show any symptoms.

Now, if we consider pre-symptomatic as a kind of asymptomatic transmission - after all, checking people for visible symptoms will miss this cohort - then fully *half* the transmission occurs asymptomatically. That seems huge to me.

The world's mine Oyster. I like oysters but do not personally recommend supplements.

[url]https://www.cnet.com/news/zinc-supplements-wont-protect-you-from-the-coronavirus/[/url]

[URL="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-52161995"]Mr Geisel said the diversion of masks from Berlin amounted to an "act of modern piracy", urging the Trump administration to adhere to international trading rules.[/URL]

[url]https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/02/world/coronavirus-earth-seismic-noise-scn-trnd[/url]

[QUOTE=ewmayer;541728]
Estimates R[sub]0[/sub] ~= 2.0, and breaks said estimate down into 4 additive subcomponents, whose individual R[sub]0[/sub] values are listed in square brackets:
..
Now, if we consider pre-symptomatic as a kind of asymptomatic transmission - after all, checking people for visible symptoms will miss this cohort - then fully *half* the transmission occurs asymptomatically. That seems huge to me.[/QUOTE]Missing two categories:
5) Contact with an infectee that remains asymptomatic and undiagnosed. Random testing in multiple studies have shown 33 to 46% of those infected fall in this category.
6) Airborne transmission, which a recent study or two has indicated is occurring, in addition to droplet or surface modes.
[URL]https://www.vox.com/2020/2/20/21143785/coronavirus-covid-19-spread-transmission-how[/URL] (with numerous links to New England Journal of Medicine, The Lancet, etc.)

These are I think the basis for the recent US shift from no mask use for the general populace, toward mask use. And now N95 or PM2.5 masks are very scarce at retail. (See online searches for various retailers.)

The digital contacts tracing perhaps ought be cross posted in the threads regarding intrusive surveillance.

It wouldn't surprise me if environmental transmission is more common than indicated. The virus can survive on surfaces for some time. If someone who is "shedding virus" -- whether symptomatic or not -- touches a surface, then, a bit later an uninfected person touches that surface, then touches his or her face -- boom! They've got it. That video I posted a link to a while back indicates that airborne transmission isn't all that easy. As to environmental transmission, something happened recently that made me think.

The other day, I was on a walk, and saw an exterminator's truck standing near a house that had some black boxes with red flags I'd noticed before. I asked the guy if those were his bait boxes. Yes. Poison bait for voles. Ah! I had a neighbor who had voles tearing up the back lawn. The guy gave me his card. I took it and put it in my pocket.

As I walked home, I realized what I had just done, and what I had to do. First, "Don't touch your face!" When I got home, I got my wipes, and wiped my hands, my door knobs and handles, the handle of my walking stick, and the card. I then called my neighbor, who asked me to put the card in their mail box. The shirt went into the wash not long after.

Touching surfaces or handling objects that might have been recently touched by others is something we hardly think about. IMO we had better.

Masks may indeed be protective, partly for preventing the dispersal of infected aerosol, but also because they help stop you from touching your face, thus inhibiting environmental transmission.

[QUOTE=Xyzzy;541744][URL]https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/02/world/coronavirus-earth-seismic-noise-scn-trnd[/URL][/QUOTE]Ground-propagated vibration from truck traffic and other human activity is also a factor in particle accelerator performance. Electron synchrotrons, linear accelerators, and free electron lasers are used worldwide as light sources of exceptionally high brightness, small source size, and controllable time structure and polarization for leading edge research in many fields. Within the last ten years or more, it became necessary to site such shared facilities on high quality bedrock, with very thick continuously-poured concrete foundations, and sometimes with earthen berms as a means of mitigation of lateral propagation of vibration from nearby roadways. At ESRF, road repairs to reduce source magnitude were employed. That big thump a cargo truck makes on a manhole cover or crack in the pavement shakes things in the distance, by more microns than the light source and experimental beam lines can well tolerate. [url]https://accelconf.web.cern.ch/accelconf/e96/PAPERS/TUPG/TUP034G.PDF[/url]

[QUOTE=Dr Sardonicus;541746]I realized what I had just done, and what I had to do. [/QUOTE]A no-mechanical-contact photo with a camera or cell phone is something to consider for next time. Although that implies breaching the social distancing minimum if the photo is to be readable.

[QUOTE=kriesel;541750]A no-mechanical-contact photo with a camera or cell phone is something to consider for next time. Although that implies breaching the social distancing minimum if the photo is to be readable.[/QUOTE]
Yup. I also note that "social distancing," though almost certainly helpful in limiting airborne transmission, may be basically irrelevant WRT environmental transmission. Any surface touched by many people could be harboring virus -- a gas pump handle, a publicly accessible touch screen, a keypad.

If a trucker, delivery person, or anyone stocking the shelves in a grocery store is infected, the packages or items could be harboring virus. If a shopper is infected, anythingh they've touched will be infected.

You touch it, then touch your face, Boom! You've got it.

[QUOTE=Dr Sardonicus;541752]You touch it, then touch your face, Boom! You've got it.[/QUOTE]You can wear one of those comedy face masks and make yourself look like Trump. Then Trump would get it, hah!

Plus that has the added bonus of neutering the facial recognisers used to track you.

[QUOTE=Dr Sardonicus;541752]Yup. I also note that "social distancing," though almost certainly helpful in limiting airborne transmission, may be basically irrelevant WRT environmental transmission. Any surface touched by many people could be harboring virus -- a gas pump handle, a publicly accessible touch screen, a keypad.

If a trucker, delivery person, or anyone stocking the shelves in a grocery store is infected, the packages or items could be harboring virus. If a shopper is infected, anythingh they've touched will be infected.

You touch it, then touch your face, Boom! You've got it.[/QUOTE]
Available data indicate viability time of viruses on cardboard at of order a day, and so perhaps on paper also; on most plastics or metals multiple days, with austenitic stainless steels used for their corrosion resistance and cosmetics widely in health care settings particularly bad (e coli lingering for weeks or longer), while copper and zinc alloys (most bronzes or brass) or pure metal only hours. Web search "oligodynamic"; even better than the antimicrobial action of finely divided silver, which must get wet, as in wound dressings. In the bronze age, supposedly soldiers would sharpen their swords after an engagement and put the fine shavings in their wounds. Copper plumbing has gone out of favor, but was long noted for its resistance to developing biofilms.
Gives a whole new meaning to expiration date. Nominally inanimate objects can be quarantined for a suitable period in a designated location at home. (All those plastic-packaged items bought online and delivered by the usual [B]carriers[/B], or from local retail.)
[QUOTE=retina;541754]You can wear one of those comedy face masks...
Plus that has the added bonus of neutering the facial recognisers used to track you.[/QUOTE]Somewhat ineffectual if it's the formed plastic type of mask, given the airborne issue. Have some fun with it though; try to find a Dr. Fauci mask, or go as an old western bank robber (kerchief mask, hat to match). I have a kerchief or two that belonged to an ancestor who was borne during the late 19th century, before the last of the American Indian conflicts, started a family during WWI, continued having kids through the spanish flu epidemic, roaring twenties, and Great Depression, and finished raising them in WWII and the beginning of the Cold War.

[QUOTE=xilman;541733][URL="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-52161995"]Mr Geisel said the diversion of masks from Berlin amounted to an "act of modern piracy", urging the Trump administration to adhere to international trading rules.[/URL][/QUOTE]

I do not know if that is true, but assume that 3M is producing most of its masks in China. What would happen if China'ld use a similar act to prevent export to the US; maybe simply to distribute them in a fairer way?

[QUOTE=kriesel;541758]Available data indicate viability time of viruses on cardboard at of order a day, and so perhaps on paper also; on most plastics or metals multiple days, with austenitic stainless steels used for their corrosion resistance and cosmetics widely in health care settings particularly bad (e coli lingering for weeks or longer), while copper and zinc alloys (most bronzes or brass) or pure metal only hours. Web search "oligodynamic"; even better than the antimicrobial action of finely divided silver, which must get wet, as in wound dressings. In the bronze age, supposedly soldiers would sharpen their swords after an engagement and put the fine shavings in their wounds. Copper plumbing has gone out of favor, but was long noted for its resistance to developing biofilms.
Gives a whole new meaning to expiration date. Nominally inanimate objects can be quarantined for a suitable period in a designated location at home. (All those plastic-packaged items bought online and delivered by the usual [B]carriers[/B], or from local retail.)[/QUOTE]Reminds me of an article I read -- probably in the early 1990's -- about cutting boards. A study showed that wooden cutting boards were actually more sanitary WRT food-poisoning bacteria than plastic ones, which were nearly impossible to disinfect, due to the microbes being lodged in knife cuts in the plastic. I got a copy of a report from the author, whose name I remember to this day, as D. O. Cliver. When I saw the slight repositioning to "Doc Liver," the name was stuck in my memory forever!

[QUOTE=Dr Sardonicus;541764]Reminds me of an article I read -- probably in the early 1990's -- about cutting boards. A study showed that wooden cutting boards were actually more sanitary WRT food-poisoning bacteria than plastic ones, which were nearly impossible to disinfect, due to the microbes being lodged in knife cuts in the plastic. I got a copy of a report from the author, whose name I remember to this day, as D. O. Cliver. When I saw the slight repositioning to "Doc Liver," the name was stuck in my memory forever![/QUOTE]I remember a similar study. It makes sense; trees live for decades or centuries, can't move away from epidemic areas, and are prone to various diseases. Having antifungals and antimicrobials built in to the wood has an obvious evolutionary advantage. One of my 3 locust trees at home got a bad root fungus. It went down in a wind storm, while all the trees upwind were fine. Honey locust is very hard wood when healthy, but the part just below grade that failed, in a pyramidal 45 degree pattern (shear failure from bending stresses) could be cut with a spade, like it was cork, not hardwood. What they need to evolve next is greater resistance to insects, such as termites, carpenter ants, and borers; perhaps a symbiosis with pathogens for problem insects.
It's unclear how much of the antimicrobial action of wood survives normal processing including kiln drying, or the severe treatment undergone in papermaking. [URL]https://www.rowandsons.co.uk/blog/myth-fact-antibacterial-properties-wood/[/URL]
That seems focused more on bacteria, molds, and yeast. Specific to virus and the currently pertinent strains is [url]https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0166354207002380[/url]

[QUOTE=retina;541754]You can wear one of those comedy face masks and make yourself look like Trump. Then Trump would get it, hah!

Plus that has the added bonus of neutering the facial recognisers used to track you.[/QUOTE]
Our Hypocrite-in-Chief is now recommending people wear face masks, but says he won't wear one. But then, he'd need [i]two.[/i] So I guess he's doing more than most folks to conserve the supply...

I've been sent a number of Emails in recent days, offering face masks to "Protect yourself from virus attack!"

I reckoned the best way to do that was to delete the messages without downloading them, so I never saw the details of these offers.

Know your enemy
 

This article must have been a challenge to proofread.
[url]https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/03/science/coronavirus-genome-bad-news-wrapped-in-protein.html?utm_source=pocket-newtab[/url]

[QUOTE=kriesel;541745]Missing two categories:
5) Contact with an infectee that remains asymptomatic and undiagnosed. Random testing in multiple studies have shown 33 to 46% of those infected fall in this category.
6) Airborne transmission, which a recent study or two has indicated is occurring, in addition to droplet or surface modes.[/QUOTE]

No - your 5) is exactly Science article's "4. Asymptomatic", and airborne is included in "3. Environmental" - note I wrote "e.g. on surfaces" not, "i.e. on surfaces" - though the line there between close-infectee-contact and 'environmental does admittedly blur . And the numbers are early estimates, not carved in stone, my main takeaway was "asymptomatic transmission by various modes is possibly responsible for the majority of transmission", thus people should take appropriate precautions - social-distance, wash hands, avoid touching eyes/nose/mouth with unwashed hands (masks help here), wear a cotton surgical-style earloop mask whenever in an enclosed space with other people where 6'/2m-distancing is difficult to achieve.

[QUOTE=Dr Sardonicus;541752]You touch it, then touch your face, Boom! You've got it.[/QUOTE]If I get it, I get it. I am certainly not going to start worrying about whether I will get it (or have already got it) now.

InshAllah.

[QUOTE=xilman;541733][URL="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-52161995"]Mr Geisel said the diversion of masks from Berlin amounted to an "act of modern piracy", urging the Trump administration to adhere to international trading rules.[/URL][/QUOTE]

Pfft ... 200,000 pales in comparison to the [url=https://www.nation.co.ke/news/world/German-army-loses-6-million-masks-in-Kenya/1068-5502520-oes370z/index.html]6 million the German army just lost in transit somewhere in Kenya[/url]. So perhaps the German government should direc its ire and inquiries a little closer to home.

[QUOTE=ewmayer;541787]No - your 5) is exactly Science article's "4. Asymptomatic", and airborne is included in "3. Environmental" - note I wrote "e.g. on surfaces" not, "i.e. on surfaces" - though the line there between close-infectee-contact and 'environmental does admittedly blur . And the numbers are early estimates, not carved in stone, my main takeaway was "asymptomatic transmission by various modes is possibly responsible for the majority of transmission", thus people should take appropriate precautions - social-distance, wash hands, avoid touching eyes/nose/mouth with unwashed hands (masks help here), wear a cotton surgical-style earloop mask whenever in an enclosed space with other people where 6'/2m-distancing is difficult to achieve.[/QUOTE]
#5 is the distinction between never-symptomatic, and not-symptomatic-yet. Which upon rereading I see #1 and #4 make, so you got me there.
#6 is a practical distinction between droplets and dry particles. The sizes, ranges, and filter behavior are different.
There's also indication that as with some other diseases, droplet and dry can originate not only from the respiratory tract, but from feces. "Toilet bowl aerosol" is an unpleasant but necessary phrase.

Ivermectin
 

Dramatic reductions of COVID19 in 24h, near eradication in 48h in lab research. In vitro only at this point, so maybe it helps, maybe it doesn't, in actual patients. No doubt some field tests will occur shortly by the "compassionate use" exception allowing patients to volunteer as lab rats.Already FDA approved for human use as an antiparasitic, and supposedly there's already considerable stock of it around too. [URL]https://www.breitbart.com/border/2020/04/04/common-anti-parasite-drug-may-kill-coronavirus-in-under-48-hours-say-researchers[/URL]
Multiple links in the article for those who don't trust Breitbart.

So now there's hydroxychloroquine/ Z-pak, remdesivir in evaluation, favipiravir, and perhaps the additiono of ivermectin to this list: [URL]https://www.drugs.com/condition/covid-19.html#treatments[/URL]

[QUOTE=ewmayer;541801]Pfft ... 200,000 pales in comparison to the [url=https://www.nation.co.ke/news/world/German-army-loses-6-million-masks-in-Kenya/1068-5502520-oes370z/index.html]6 million the German army just lost in transit somewhere in Kenya[/url]. So perhaps the German government should direc its ire and inquiries a little closer to home.[/QUOTE][url=https://www.nation.co.ke/news/German-Army-face-masks-never-vanished-in-Kenya-says-KAA/1056-5503194-q64w3f/index.html]Kenya Airports Authority (KAA) says it's "Fake News"[/url][quote]"Our investigation has concluded that there was no cargo of this nature that has passed through JKIA for the last two weeks and no missing cargo has been reported to the authorities," KAA said in a statement.

"We, therefore, wish to inform the public that we are treating this report of alleged disappearance of six million type FFP2 protective masks as fake news and that our cargo section continues with normal operations," the authority went on.[/quote]

[QUOTE=Dr Sardonicus;541809][url=https://www.nation.co.ke/news/German-Army-face-masks-never-vanished-in-Kenya-says-KAA/1056-5503194-q64w3f/index.html]Kenya Airports Authority (KAA) says it's "Fake News"[/url][/QUOTE]

If one of the high-ups in the KAA - and such a heist would seem to require involvement of such - was in on the heist, they would of course deny the whole thing. Journalism 101: never take any single source's word for it.

[QUOTE=ewmayer;541811]If one of the high-ups in the KAA - and such a heist would seem to require involvement of such - was in on the heist, they would of course deny the whole thing. Journalism 101: never take any single source's word for it.[/QUOTE]
If it [i]was[/i] a heist. The article you linked to says
[quote]Since the outbreak of the new coronavirus, protective mask business has become a gold mine worldwide. Because of the high demand, the protective gears are traded like rare spices used to be.

[i]Der Spiegel[/i] reports: "Insiders therefore suspect that after the deal with the German procurement office, the manufacturer might get a better price for its goods and sell the masks there (in Kenya)."[/quote]In any case, it seems Germany hadn't paid for them yet.

It still hasn't been explained why the masks were going through Kenya in the first place.

Re: Ivermectin
 

[QUOTE=kriesel;541806]Already FDA approved for human use as an antiparasitic, and supposedly there's already considerable stock of it around too.[/QUOTE]
Considerable stock, eh? Judging by what's happened with Plaquenil, that will change. People already prescribed Plaquenil (hydroxychoroquine) for lupus or rheumatoid arthritis are finding it difficult to impossible to get refills.

I recognized the name Ivermectin -- as a heart worm preventative for dogs. It kills the parasites. Therefore, you do [i]not[/i] use it if the dog already is afflicted. Dead heart worms in the heart muscle is a Bad Thing.

I suddenly remembered seeing a movie shown on TV -- ours was B&W -- about [url=https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0063799/]a virus that threatened to cause economic havoc[/url].

[url]https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/04/will-sars-cov-2-have-a-long-term-impact-on-the-climate/[/url]

Yemen
 

How does/did Yemen manage to avoid this thing?

What did they do that made them so special?

[size=1]Hehe, or maybe the USA designed the virus that way to have no effect on Yemen citizens. Iran should complain about that bit of favouritism.[/size] :devil:

[QUOTE=retina;541887]How does/did Yemen manage to avoid this thing?
[/QUOTE]Perhaps the same way as West Virginia achieved status as the only state of 50 US states to have no confirmed cases for a while. Someone whose husband was seriously ill with COVID19 got the 800-number-and website runaround for days and repeated refusals to test. It appeared that the powers that be had no clue how to proceed or perhaps will to do so. When a sample collection was finally performed, it did not get processed in time to be meaningful. That had to be repeated. She got it too, while dealing with the bureaucratic obstacles. They were the first known West Virginia cases.

There's a theory that the lesser incidence in some parts of the world is due to the prevalence of taking hydroxychloroquine as a malaria preventive. [url]https://reliefweb.int/report/yemen/who-scales-malaria-response-yemen[/url]

Re. the N95 exhalation-valve issue - can one wear one of the thin 3-ply surgical masks being recommend for hoi polloi either under or over the N95 one?

Related: As with its delay in declaring a pandemic, WHO once again behind the curve re. wearing masks:

[url=https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3078437/mask-or-not-mask-who-makes-u-turn-while-us]WHO makes U-turn while US, Singapore abandon pandemic advice and tell citizens to start wearing masks[/url] | South China Morning Post

------------------------

[url=https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/how-generals-fueled-1918-flu-pandemic-to-win-their-world-war/]How Generals Fueled 1918 Flu Pandemic to Win Their World War[/url] | The American Conservative
[quote]The U.S. military has been forced by the coronavirus pandemic to make some serious changes in their operations. But the Pentagon, and especially the Navy, have also displayed a revealing resistance to moves to stand down that were clearly needed to protect troops from the raging virus from the start.

The Army and Marine Corps have shifted from in-person to virtual recruitment meetings. But the Pentagon has reversed an initial Army decision to postpone further training and exercises for at least 30 days, and it has decided to continue sending new recruits from all the services to basic training camps, where they would no doubt be unable to sustain social distancing.

On Thursday, the captain of the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt, on which the virus was reportedly spreading, was relieved of command. He was blamed by his superiors for the leak of a letter he wrote warning the Navy that failure to act rapidly threatened the health of his 5,000 sailors.

Secretary of Defense Mark Esper justified his decision to continue many military activities as usual by declaring these activities are “critical to national security.” But does anyone truly believe there is a military threat on the horizon that the Pentagon must prepare for right now? It is widely understood outside the Pentagon that the only real threat to that security is the coronavirus itself.

Esper’s decisions reflect a deeply ingrained Pentagon habit of protecting its parochial military interests at the expense of the health of American troops. This pattern of behavior recalls the far worse case of the U.S. service chiefs once managing the war in Europe. They acted with even greater callousness toward the troops being called off to war in Europe during the devastating “Spanish flu” pandemic of 1918, which killed 50 million people worldwide.

It was called the “Spanish flu” only because, while the United States, Britain and France were all censoring news about the spread of the pandemic in their countries to maintain domestic morale, the press in neutralist Spain was reporting freely on influenza cases there. In fact, the first major wave of infections in the United States came in U.S. training camps set up to serve the war.

Abundant documentary evidence shows that the 1918 pandemic actually began in Haskell County, Kansas, in early 1918...

...The disastrous character of the U.S. elite running the First World War is clearly revealed with the astonishing fact that more American soldiers were killed and hospitalized by influenza (63,114) than in combat (53,402). And an estimated 340,000 American troops were hospitalized with influenza/pneumonia, compared with 227,000 hospitalized by German attacks.[/quote]

[url=https://www.esquire.com/news-politics/a32030330/coronavirus-sense-of-smell-covid-19/]Loss of Smell Is a Coronavirus Symptom - COVID-19 Anosmia[/url] | Esquire
[quote]researchers at Kings College London have developed an app, called the COVID-19 Symptom Tracker, for British citizens to document their Coronavirus Experience. It now has around 2 million users, Hopkins says, as Britons are encouraged to map their symptoms on a daily basis, even if they're feeling well. The goal is to learn more about the onset of the infection and "identify which symptoms occur at which stage of the disease." When Hopkins first put out the organization's statement, loss of smell was not included among the app's options. But she got in contact with the development team and convinced them to add it.

The app team released a statement this week announcing that sense of smell is "actually the strongest symptom to predict infection," according to Hopkins, including when compared to fever. They found 60 percent of patients who tested positive had lost their sense of smell, while in those that tested negative, only 18 percent had anosmia symptoms. This offers more specificity than a fever, which was commonly found in those who tested negatively. The takeaway, Hopkins says, was that "anyone with new onset loss of sense of smell should be self-isolating, and ideally tested." It's an early warning sign. Hopkins has developed a cohort of around 2,500 patients she's monitoring, and while the exact timeline of when anosmia occurs still isn't clear, she says around one-in-four lost their sense of smell before developing any other symptoms. Another one-in-four develop it around the same time as other symptoms, and for the other half, it comes after.[/quote]
Related:

[url=https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/lost-smell-and-taste-hint-covid-19-can-target-the-nervous-system-67312]Lost Smell and Taste Hint COVID-19 Can Target the Nervous System[/url] | The Scientist

[url=https://apnews.com/193a0cfe074685144ade169084a68255]UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson hospitalized with virus[/url][quote]LONDON (AP) — British Prime Minister Boris Johnson was admitted to a hospital Sunday for tests, his office said, because he is still suffering symptoms, 10 days after he was diagnosed with COVID-19.

Johnson's office said the admission to an undisclosed London hospital came on the advice of his doctor and was not an emergency. The prime minister's Downing St. office said it was a "precautionary step" and Johnson remains in charge of the government.[/quote]In what is surely a sign of my advanced age, this reminds me that it was a standing joke during the final years of the Soviet Union that an announcement that the Premier merely "had a cold" meant he was circling the drain.

Tonight's numbers:
globally: 1274923 cases, 69479 deaths, 260484 recovered
CFR1 = 69479 / (69479 + 260484) = 0.211 = 21.1%
CFR2 = 69479 / 1274923 = 0.0545 = 5.45%
USA: 337620 cases, 8440 deaths, 17530 recovered
CFR1 = 8440 /(8440+17530) = 0.325 = 32.5%
CFR2 = 8440 / 337620 = 0.025 = 2.5%
[url]https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6[/url]

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url]
global: 1273712 cases, 69458 deaths, 262486 recovered, 941768 active cases of which 5% are serious or critical
USA: 336830 cases, 9618 deaths, 17977 recovered, 309235 active of which 8702 are serious or critical; 29 deaths/million population

NY City has had more deaths than Germany plus Belgium

[COLOR="Red"][SIZE="3"][FONT="Arial Black"]MOD Note:[/FONT][/SIZE][/COLOR] All of the discussion about re-engineering masks has been moved here: [url]https://mersenneforum.org/showthread.php?t=25431[/url]

Scotland's top medical official resigns
 

[URL="https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/5460581/coronavirus-scotland-catherine-calderwood-chief-medic-covid-19/"][SIZE=3]https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/5460581/coronavirus-scotland-catherine-calderwood-chief-medic-covid-19/[/SIZE][/URL]
[SIZE=3]"Scotland's top medical official resigns after being caught breaking her own coronavirus lockdown advice" [URL]https://www.foxnews.com/world/scotlands-top-medical-official-resigns-during-coronavirus-lockdown[/URL][/SIZE]

[QUOTE=kriesel;541917]
NY City has had more deaths than Germany plus Belgium[/QUOTE]NYC: pop ~8.4 million
Germany: 83. million
Belgium: 11.5 million

“I’m encouraging New Yorkers to go on with your lives + get out on the town despite Coronavirus,” the NYC mayor tweeted March 2.

[URL]https://news.yahoo.com/the-mistakes-that-turned-new-york-into-an-epicenter-of-the-coronavirus-epidemic-090040375.html[/URL]

[QUOTE=Uncwilly;539510]From things that I have heard, many in Oregon have been wanting to do that for years.[/QUOTE]
Texas beat them to it.

[URL="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52178501/page/2"]In Texas, state troopers have begun stopping and screening drivers coming in from neighbouring Louisiana, requiring them to provide their personal details and observe a mandatory two-week quarantine.[/URL]

Apologies for the likely short-lived link. Exercise for the reader: find and post a better on.

[QUOTE=Dr Sardonicus;541911][url=https://apnews.com/193a0cfe074685144ade169084a68255]UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson hospitalized with virus[/url]
In what is surely a sign of my advanced age, this reminds me that it was a standing joke during the final years of the Soviet Union that an announcement that the Premier merely "had a cold" meant he was circling the drain.[/QUOTE]

[URL="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52192604"]BoJo now in intensive care unit.[/URL]

When you come to Tommy's the holiday's forever!

Detainees sue Sheriff Tom Dart over coronavirus at Cook County Jail
 

Cook County Jail is in Chicago, IL, USA. It is the largest single-site jail in the US.

[URL]https://chicago.suntimes.com/coronavirus/2020/4/6/21209889/civil-rights-groups-sue-tom-dart-covid-19-coronavirus-cook-county-jail[/URL]
[QUOTE]As of Monday morning, the jail population was at 4,567 — a drop of more than 1,000 from a month ago. Jail officials Sunday reported that 234 detainees had tested positive for coronavirus, a number that has grown daily since [URL="https://chicago.suntimes.com/2020/3/23/21191438/two-cook-county-jail-detainees-test-positive-covid-19-coronavirus"]the first two confirmed cases were announced[/URL] two weeks ago. Nearly 80 jail staff members have tested positive for COVID-19. [/QUOTE]5% of the inmate population plus more for staff. This is a horror story in progress, along with jails and prisons everywhere.

WI governor attempts to singlehandedly delay a statewide election on <20 hour notice
 

Drove by the local town hall after seeing this news elsewhere. The parking lot was nearly full with vehicles of people setting up for tomorrow's election, and building otherwise closed. [URL="https://www.channel3000.com/gov-evers-suspends-in-person-voting-for-tuesdays-election-moves-election-day-to-june/?fbclid=IwAR1trAeroJgJ-mpGSw25XV6iO_5WPEKBa8Yp6C3q6X-RVUD5bFZ-L6JuJz8"]https://www.channel3000.com/gov-evers-suspends-in-person-v…/[/URL] Trying to reschedule a statewide election less than 24 hours before the polls are to open and without the legal authority to do so unilaterally is some kind of crazy.
He's already been rebuffed by a Federal judge and the state legislature, so now the state supreme court will get the third strike. There are over 1000 townships in WI (~65500 square miles / ~36 square miles per township, excluding those that have been completely annexed into cities or villages; area per township varies at state boundaries; ~1264 listed at [URL]http://www.govtdomains.com/lists/localgovt/wi_townships.htm[/URL]), each setting up for tomorrow's election today.

I know I should not wish ill upon anyone, However, BoJo, like Trump, took a relaxed and dismissive approach to Coronavirus. It would be equally poetically just if our Prez met the consequences attendant on his obstruction of a rational response to the pandemic. :picard:

[QUOTE=kladner;541977]took a relaxed and dismissive approach to Coronavirus[/QUOTE]That standard would substantially thin the ranks of political leaders and candidates worldwide.

[QUOTE=xilman;541967][URL="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52192604"]BoJo now in intensive care unit.[/URL]

When you come to Tommy's the holiday's forever![/QUOTE]It seems Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab is "designated survivor," which seems to mean he's acting PM, but I'm not sure of that. And what about making decisions when cabinet ministers and/or MP's can't agree? I doubt an "Acting" PM has quite the authority an elected one does.

So, what happens with governance in the UK while the PM is unable to perform official duties? Or suddenly becomes "was PM for life?"

[QUOTE=kriesel;541983]That standard would substantially thin the ranks of political leaders and candidates worldwide.[/QUOTE]
That would not necessarily be a cause for lamentations!

[QUOTE=Dr Sardonicus;541987]It seems Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab is "designated survivor," which seems to mean he's acting PM, but I'm not sure of that. And what about making decisions when cabinet ministers and/or MP's can't agree? I doubt an "Acting" PM has quite the authority an elected one does.

So, what happens with governance in the UK while the PM is unable to perform official duties? Or suddenly becomes "was PM for life?"[/QUOTE]Temporary incapacity: pretty much the same as in the US. The designated stand-by takes over for a while. That happened when Reagan was shot, for instance.

Permanent incapacity is where it differs between the two countries. If one party has a working majority (true at present) that party picks another candidate for PM and gets the Queen to OK the decision. This process is essentially how BoJo became PM following the resignation of Theresa May.

Here is a nice video by a doctor at Queens Hospital on how to breathe properly. The technique could well reduce your chances of developing pneumonia.

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HwLzAdriec0[/url]

Have just received the letter from PM but considering he caught Covid not sure if I shall follow his recommendations.

[QUOTE=xilman;542015]Here is a nice video by a doctor at Queens Hospital on how to breathe properly. The technique could well reduce your chances of developing pneumonia.

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HwLzAdriec0[/url][/QUOTE]

Don’t think that would work at least for people with asthma, my wife can’t do it, she starts coughing after second breathe.

[QUOTE=pinhodecarlos;542019]Don’t think that would work at least for people with asthma, my wife can’t do it, she starts coughing after second breathe.[/QUOTE]

It depends on the person. I have asthma, and have no problem doing this.

[QUOTE=chalsall;542022]It depends on the person. I have asthma, and have no problem doing this.[/QUOTE]

Glad you managed.

Mayor Lori Lightfoot (of Chicago)is doing "Stay Home" Public Service Announcements which are really funny.
[URL]https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/chicago-politics/lightfoot-shares-hilarious-psa-urging-people-to-stay-home-save-lives/2247859/[/URL]
Then, too, she turned up as a warrior queen, which totally cracks me up. :lol:

First report of emergency from a "not that highly developed" country I read:
[url]https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/03/americas/guayaquil-ecuador-overwhelmed-coronavirus-intl/index.html[/url]


Solution:
[url]https://edition.cnn.com/videos/world/2020/04/07/ecuador-coronavirus-covid-19-cardboard-coffins-rivers-lkl-intl-hnk-vpx.cnn[/url]


Ecuadors HDI is not that bad, see [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ecuador[/url].


I fear that less developed countries will suffer more. Dont believe that the summer gives a big release, because there has been fine weather in southern Europe for a while...

[QUOTE=Till;542039]Dont believe that the summer gives a big release, because there has been fine weather in southern Europe for a while...[/QUOTE]

One of the advantages of those in the equatorial zone is the high amount of UV radiation. But I agree with you -- developing nations are potentially going to be hit hard, largely because of the lack of medical resources for those who do get sick.

[QUOTE=chalsall;542042]One of the advantages of those in the equatorial zone is the high amount of UV radiation. But I agree with you -- developing nations are potentially going to be hit hard, largely because of the lack of medical resources for those who do get sick.[/QUOTE]

Biggest problems are with close-range airborne and on surfaces. The former, the virus probably doesn't linger in the air long enough for UV to kill it, even in bright sunshine. Indoors is the bigger problem for both transmission modes - I'm wearing my 3-ply surgical earloop mask down under my chin when I'm outside away from other people, pull it up over mough and nose whenever I'm indoors near people, e.g. hllways, elevators, grocery shopping. You can use a strong UV source to sterilize indoor surfaces, but rubbing alcohol seems just as effective and is multipurpose.

[QUOTE=kladner;541977]I know I should not wish ill upon anyone, However, BoJo, like Trump, took a relaxed and dismissive approach to Coronavirus. It would be equally poetically just if our Prez met the consequences attendant on his obstruction of a rational response to the pandemic. :picard:[/QUOTE]
So you'd rather have religious nutter Pence in charge? Or just have the virus kill all the foolish people in DC until the next-in-line for POTUSship is "the next FDR"? Dude, do your pay attention to the kinds of people who populate DC these days? Because I gotta tell you, "next FDR"s are in direly short supply. Obama was elected based on hopes of filling that role, and turned out to be just another bought-and-paid-for neoliberal elite-looter-and-self-serving scumbag like all the rest. But he was sooooooo "presidential" -- reams of soaring rhetoric™ reaching to the sky.

In a crisis, you gotta go with the (mis)leadership you got -- with Trump, he seems to have finally "gotten it" in thepast 2-3 weeks, so better late than never. Sure, he's still noising about "back in business soon!" in his role as optimist-in-chief, but he's listening to his top medical advisers when it comes to actual policy.

BTW, NC had an article yesterday illustrating that pandemic-preparedness incompetence - and outright sabotage in this case - is not an R vs D issue but rather a "when money rules everthing" one:

[url=https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2020/04/coronavirus-a-theory-of-incompetence.html]Coronavirus: A Theory of Incompetence[/url] | naked capitalism
[quote]Leaders in the public and private sector in advanced economies, typically highly credentialed, have with very few exceptions shown abject incompetence in dealing with coronavirus as a pathogen and as a wrecker of economies. The US and UK have made particularly sorry showings, but they are not alone.

It’s become fashionable to blame the failure to have enough medical stockpiles and hospital beds and engage in aggressive enough testing and containment measures on capitalism. But as I will describe shortly, even though I am no fan of Anglosphere capitalism, I believe this focus misses the deeper roots of these failures.

After all the country lauded for its response, South Korea, is capitalist. Similarly, reader vlade points out that the Czech Republic has had only 2 coronavirus deaths per million versus 263 for Italy. Among other things, the Czech Republic closed its borders in mid-March and made masks mandatory. Newscasters and public officials wear them to underscore that no one is exempt.

Even though there are plenty of examples of capitalism gone toxic, such as hospitals and Big Pharma sticking doggedly to their price gouging ways or rampant production disruptions due to overly tightly-tuned supply chains, that isn’t an adequate explanation. Government dereliction of duty also abound. In 2006, California’s Governor Arnold Schwarznegger reacted to the avian flu by creating MASH on steroids. From the LA Times:
[i]
They were ready to roll whenever disaster struck California: three 200-bed mobile hospitals that could be deployed to the scene of a crisis on flatbed trucks and provide advanced medical care to the injured and sick within 72 hours.

Each hospital would be the size of a football field, with a surgery ward, intensive care unit and X-ray equipment. Medical response teams would also have access to a massive stockpile of emergency supplies: 50 million N95 respirators, 2,400 portable ventilators and kits to set up 21,000 additional patient beds wherever they were needed…

“In light of the pandemic flu risk, it is absolutely a critical investment,” he [Governor Schwarznegger] told a news conference. “I’m not willing to gamble with the people’s safety.”
[/i]
They were dismantled in 2011 by Governor Jerry Brown as part of post-crisis belt tightening.

The US for decades has as a matter of policy tried to reduce the number of hospital beds, which among other things has led to the shuttering of hospitals, particularly in rural areas. Hero of the day, New York’s Governor Andrew Cuomo pursued this agenda with vigor, as did his predecessor George Pataki.

And even though Trump has made bad decision after bad decision, from eliminating the CDC’s pandemic unit to denying the severity of the crisis and refusing to use government powers to turbo-charge state and local medical responses, people better qualified than he is have also performed disastrously. America’s failure to test early and enough can be laid squarely at the feet of the CDC...[/quote]

[QUOTE=pinhodecarlos;542019]Don’t think that would work at least for people with asthma, my wife can’t do it, she starts coughing after second breathe.[/QUOTE]I have seen comments from people with asthma who say they have been doing this for years and it helps with their condition.

Perhaps coughing is good and only those do not do it naturally need to do it as a conscious action. I don't know.

Do not try this at home (or, well, anywhere)
 

Darwin award nominees, couples division. Aquarium cleaner as self medication did not go well. [URL]https://lidblog.com/aquarium-cleaner-instead-of-medicine/[/URL]

[QUOTE=kriesel;542057]Darwin award nominees, couples division. Aquarium cleaner as self medication did not go well. [URL]https://lidblog.com/aquarium-cleaner-instead-of-medicine/[/URL][/QUOTE]There is an individual that gets credit for the assist in this. Who is left as an exercise for the gentle reader.

[QUOTE=kriesel;542057]Darwin award nominees, couples division. Aquarium cleaner as self medication did not go well. [URL]https://lidblog.com/aquarium-cleaner-instead-of-medicine/[/URL][/QUOTE]
A quick search turned up [url=https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32074550]this tidbit[/url] (my emphasis):[quote]Abstract

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) virus is spreading rapidly, and scientists are endeavoring to discover drugs for its efficacious treatment in China. [b]Chloroquine phosphate[/b], an old drug for treatment of malaria, is shown to have apparent efficacy and acceptable safety against COVID-19 associated pneumonia in multicenter clinical trials conducted in China. The drug is recommended to be included in the next version of the Guidelines for the Prevention, Diagnosis, and Treatment of Pneumonia Caused by COVID-19 issued by the National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China for treatment of COVID-19 infection in larger populations in the future.[/quote]

Also -- I'm not sure the Darwin Award criteria were met. Although the couple who took the stuff was not named in sites I looked at, some did mention that they were in their sixties. It is therefore possible that they may have already contributed to the gene pool.

I also note that some reports say the couple took the stuff out of fear they would get COVID-19. It certainly prevented the man from getting it.

In Iran, as I have already posted, hundreds have died from ingesting another substance in hopes it would protect them from COVID-19 -- methanol. Some who drank it, however, were not killed. Some of the victims were blinded.

[QUOTE=pinhodecarlos;542018]Have just received the letter from PM but considering he caught Covid not sure if I shall follow his recommendations.[/QUOTE]
Seeing as how it was from someone who had the bug, I hope you took due precautions before opening the letter
:-D

The following [url=https://www.wglt.org/post/coronavirus-blog-4720-doctor-sues-host-testing-clinic]blog entry[/url] may be of interest. A doctor wants to test people whether symptomatic or not, and the authorities won't let him.
[quote]DOCTOR SUES TO HOST DRIVE-THRU TESTING CLINIC
2 p.m. Tuesday, April 7

LeRoy physician Tom Pliura has sued the Champaign-Urbana Public Health District Administrator in his attempt to bring a drive-thru COVID-19 testing site in Champaign County, [url=https://www.news-gazette.com/coronavirus/tuesdays-coronavirus-updates-danville-prison-employee-tests-positive/article_4ea684e9-0c1a-5b0a-9f26-4f4ff6117565.html?fbclid=IwAR2Y7KloECR1zwGEePD-dHSlGqHct7nrrvHK02-suQGCsSlwhx5tLSDxT-E]the Champaign News-Gazette reports.[/url]

Pliura had scheduled a clinic last week at a Champaign church but [url=https://www.wglt.org/post/leroy-doctors-covid-19-testing-clinic-hold-health-officials-seek-answers#stream/0]it was shut down moments prior[/url] after health district administrator Julie Pryde raised concerns.

The News-Gazette reports the lawsuit seeks to prohibit Pryde from stopping Pliura’s plans to offer public COVID-19 testing.

Pliura told WGLT on Friday he was planning to reschedule the clinic once he secured a location.

He has started conducting COVID-19 testing outside his urgent care clinic in Champaign.

-- Eric Stock | WGLT[/quote]

Beating the models with actual results [URL]https://twitter.com/seanmdav/status/1247575560244649985[/URL]

[QUOTE=xilman;542050]I have seen comments from people with asthma who say they have been doing this for years and it helps with their condition.

Perhaps coughing is good and only those do not do it naturally need to do it as a conscious action. I don't know.[/QUOTE]

Do you know from top of your head the annual breathe test result from those people, the asthma annual review with GP? Her best was 340 on the peak flow test but I’ve seen worst, during winter season specially on cold days. Anyway, I don’t know either, one thing I’m sure is that she is now more nervous than ever trying to stay home and not going for a walk or running has made her use the inhalers more often.

[QUOTE=Dr Sardonicus;542063]Seeing as how it was from someone who had the bug, I hope you took due precautions before opening the letter
:-D[/QUOTE]Ours arrived yesterday.

And my eyes still grow damp to remember His Majesty signed with his own rubber stamp.

[QUOTE=pinhodecarlos;542081]Do you know from top of your head the annual breathe test result from those people, the asthma annual review with GP? Her best was 340 on the peak flow test but I’ve seen worst, during winter season specially on cold days. Anyway, I don’t know either, one thing I’m sure is that she is now more nervous than ever trying to stay home and not going for a walk or running has made her use the inhalers more often.[/QUOTE]The comments I saw were made on the YouTube channel in question.

[QUOTE=xilman;542083]The comments I saw were made on the YouTube channel in question.[/QUOTE]

Fair enough Paul, thank you. Hope you both are well.

[QUOTE=Dr Sardonicus;542060]I'm not sure the Darwin Award criteria were met. Although the couple who took the stuff was not named in sites I looked at, some did mention that they were in their sixties. It is therefore possible that they may have already contributed to the gene pool.[/QUOTE]Consider the effect of extended family on descendants' chance to survive and thrive. In some situations it's the grandparents raising the kids. (Common when the parents are dead, addicts, imprisoned, etc.)

[QUOTE=Dr Sardonicus;541911][URL="https://apnews.com/193a0cfe074685144ade169084a68255"]UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson hospitalized with virus[/URL]In what is surely a sign of my advanced age, this reminds me that it was a standing joke during the final years of the Soviet Union that an announcement that the Premier merely "had a cold" meant he was circling the drain.[/QUOTE]
Newsweek UK reports he is sitting up and feeling better. [url]https://www.newsweek.com/uk-prime-minister-boris-johnson-improving-sitting-bed-1496890[/url]

Denver doctor reports the majority of his Covid19 patients get better in a day or two upon treatment with hycroxychlroquine & zithromax. You can chart a patient and note correlation with such treatment, but that does not necessarily mean causation. Sure is interesting though.

[URL="https://denver.cbslocal.com/2020/04/06/denver-doctor-coronavirus-hydroxycholoroquine/"]https://denver.cbslocal.com/2020/04/06/denver-doctor-coronavirus-hydroxycholoroquine/ [/URL]

[url=https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2020/04/covid-19-where-from-why-now.html]Covid-19: Where From? Why Now?[/url] | naked capitalism -- Some interesting nuggets re. possible origins of the novel virus strain which I had not seen explored before:
[quote]The first article linked says that some of the animal and human epidemics we have been seeing lately would have a relation with industrial farming. Indeed, farming has almost certainly been the origin of most infectious human diseases since as long as 7.000 years ago. Moreover, intensive industrial farming practices may be behind several outbursts of novel animal and human diseases as these may result in rapid amplification of diseases (3).
[i]
(Quote from ref. 3): There is a near consensus among experts that overuse of antibiotics, crowded and unsanitary livestock conditions, unnatural feed diets, and a lack of diversification are responsible for some serious global health risks.
[/i]
I am OK with this and it may explain the 5 bacterial and viral diseases listed in the article. But it has been shown that H5N1 flu was originated in a family farm so it is not always a case of centralized industrial production in megafarms (4). Moreover, such megafarms are in many cases better isolated from wild sources than traditional farms and might offer less opportunities for species jumping from the wild as in SARS.

If SARS has a relationship with wild animal farming and markets, what has then this to do with farming?

The original article goes on to say that an increase in wild animal trafficking in China could be related with a sharp drop in meat production in China in 2019. An outbreak of African Swine Fever disease starting in 2018 caused a large production decrease in China during 2019 (5). Pork accounts for more than 60% of total meat production in China (broiler meat excluded). According to the National Statistics Bureau of China (NSBCh) pork meat production fell in China by 21% in 2019 with a total loss of about 11.5 million tons of meat (6). An increase in lamb and beef meat production could compensate only for a small part of this. The NSBCh does not yet provide for meat price changes in 2019 but this is a solid suggestion that wild animal trafficking could have increased partly to compensate for shortages of pork meat. At least in international markets this caused a spike in frozen pig meat (7). This looks like a solid line of research to explore.

Interestingly, I found a link that makes the opposite argument: industrial farming, and not wild animal farms are to blame (8). According to this analysis, a SADS (pig coronavirus) epidemic a few years ago in pork farms in China suggests that industrial farming and not familiar farms, are to blame.
[i]
(Quote from 8 Many of the animals on this list are industrially farmed in China, even wild animals like civets and pangolins are intensively farmed for their use in Chinese medicines. Suspicions that wild animal farms may have been behind the Covid-19 outbreak have already led the Chinese government to shut down 20,000 wild animal farms across the country.

But hardly any attention has been given to some other animals on this list, which more clearly meet the “high population density” criteria. Pigs would be one obvious candidate from this list, for several reasons. For one, pigs and humans have very similar immune systems, making it easy for viruses to cross between the two species, as happened with the Nipah virus outbreak in Malaysia in 1998… [emphasis mine]
[/i]
I would argue that high density is to blame for amplification of diseases but this doesn’t say anything about the origin. As I wrote before megafarms may be better isolated from the wild than the familiar farms they defend in the article. Moreover, given the large number of wild animal farms that Chinese authorities closed, the chances of a fortuitous jump from bats, civets, racoons, pangolins etc. to humans seem greatly higher on these than on megafarms. So far, no coronavirus jump has been demonstrated from pigs to humans whereas civets were demonstrated for SARS 1.0. My opinion is that it would be a big mistake to overlook their potential role in this and possible future outbreaks.

Besides, the fact that Chinese authorities closed these farms is very telling. It is important that many mammal species are screened to find a CoV which is closest to SARS CoV 2 to prevent new outbreaks. A recent article said, on the basis of ACE2 receptor similarities, that reptiles might be discarded for search but Bovidae (cows…) or Cricetidae (rodent subgroup) should be included in the search (9), but similarities in ACE 2 do not prove much about the origin of SARS CoV 2.

I find it annoying that after a couple of months no an exhaustive work has been published on this topic. After some noises on snakes and pangolins and now Bovidae or Cricetidae we are still in the dark. Are Chinese authorities retaining information that could somehow discredit them? According to (10) [article in the Guardian, [url=https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/feb/25/coronavirus-closures-reveal-vast-scale-of-chinas-secretive-wildlife-farm-industry]"Coronavirus closures reveals vast scale of China’s secretive wildlife farm industry"[/url]]:
[i]
Just weeks before the outbreak, China’s State Forestry and Grassland Administration (SFGA) was still actively encouraging citizens to get into farming wildlife such as civet cats – a species pinpointed as a carrier of Sars, a disease similar to Covid-19. The SFGA regulates both farming and trade in terrestrial wildlife, and quotas of wildlife products – such as pangolin scales – allowed to be used by the Chinese medicine industry.
[/i]
I think The Guardian may have got it right.[/quote]

So you want us to read the guardian article
[URL]https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/feb/25/coronavirus-closures-reveal-vast-scale-of-chinas-secretive-wildlife-farm-industry[/URL]

The rest of the "naked capitalism" article is saying nothing.

[QUOTE=Till;542125]So you want us to read the guardian article
[URL]https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/feb/25/coronavirus-closures-reveal-vast-scale-of-chinas-secretive-wildlife-farm-industry[/URL]

The rest of the "naked capitalism" article is saying nothing.[/QUOTE]

Don't put words in my mouth - I post in hopes some readers may find the articles/links of interest and to spur discussion. And your "is saying nothing", is itself saying nothing. If you have a specific criticism to make, by all means do so. Vague drive-by "this article sukked, dude" is for the under-10-year olds.

Here, if you need an example of a specific criticism: "I found your personal-Worldometer-obsession thread trite and somewhat ridiculous ... if you deem the source dubious, there are plenty of other such stats-aggregation sites on the Internet, pehaps you should try one of those and see if you like it better."

See how easy that was?

[QUOTE=ewmayer;542129]Don't put words in my mouth - I post in hopes some readers may find the articles/links of interest and to spur discussion. And your "is saying nothing", is itself saying nothing. If you have a specific criticism to make, by all means do so. Vague drive-by "this article sukked, dude" is for the under-10-year olds.

Here, if you need an example of a specific criticism: "I found your personal-Worldometer-obsession thread trite and somewhat ridiculous ... if you deem the source dubious, there are plenty of other such stats-aggregation sites on the Internet, pehaps you should try one of those and see if you like it better."

See how easy that was?[/QUOTE]


Ok, keep cool ;-)

Nudists must wear their masks. [URL]https://nypost.com/2020/04/07/nudists-warned-by-police-to-cover-up-their-mouths-for-coronavirus/[/URL]
In some countries, crime gangs are enforcing the government lockdown or social distancing policies. Taking short term losses to protect the business model long term, I suppose. [URL]https://www.foxnews.com/world/el-salvador-gangs-coronavirus-lockdown[/URL]
This fairly generically applicable antiviral is headed for Covid19 clinical trials [url]https://stm.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/04/03/scitranslmed.abb5883[/url]

[QUOTE=kriesel;542136]Nudists must wear their masks. [URL]https://nypost.com/2020/04/07/nudists-warned-by-police-to-cover-up-their-mouths-for-coronavirus/[/URL][/QUOTE]

Whew - only their mouths & noses ... because if they were required to cover other lower-down orifices, it might interfere with certain new health-related technology of crucial importance to humanity, as detailed in the following [i]Nature[/i] article:

[url=https://www.nature.com/articles/s41551-020-0534-9.epdf]A mountable toilet system for personalized health monitoring via the analysis of excreta[/url] | Nature: “Each user of the toilet is identified through their fingerprint and the distinctive features of their anoderm.”

Literally a "fecal recognition" system.

[QUOTE=ewmayer;542138]Literally a "fecal recognition" system.[/QUOTE]e-scatology at its best.

[QUOTE=Uncwilly;542143]e-scatology at its best.[/QUOTE](Groan Emo removed: too busy.):picard:

Case study on confirmed vs. true number of cases
 

Sorry, articles are in german.

[URL]https://web.de/magazine/news/coronavirus/corona-feldstudie-15-prozent-gangelt-infektion-nachgewiesen-34602350[/URL] cites a case study in Heinsberg, the district in Germany that was struck hardest by the corona virus at the beginning.

The confirmed cases so far are 1527 or 0.604% of the total population, see [URL]https://www.zeit.de/wissen/gesundheit/coronavirus-echtzeit-karte-deutschland-landkreise-infektionen-ausbreitung[/URL] (the circle most to the left).

Now the study called representative says that 15% of that district have antibodies. So the true number of people that already had an infection there is around factor 25 higher than the official numbers.

Maybe that can be used as a rule of thumb for other regions.

[url=https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa/speed-of-coronavirus-deaths-shock-doctors-as-new-york-toll-hits-new-high-idUSKBN21Q204]Speed of coronavirus deaths shock doctors as New York toll hits new high[/url] - Reuters
[quote]New York state, epicenter of America’s coronavirus crisis, set another single-day record of COVID-19 deaths on Wednesday, as veteran doctors and nurses voiced astonishment at the speed with which patients were deteriorating and dying.

The number of known coronavirus infections in New York state alone approached 150,000 on Wednesday, even as authorities warned that the official death tally may understate the true number because it omits those who have perished at home.

“Every number is a face, “ said New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, who ordered flags flown at half-staff across New York in memory of the victims.

“This virus attacked the vulnerable and attacked the weak, and it’s our job as a society to protect the vulnerable.”

Doctors and nurses say elderly patients and those with underlying health conditions are not the only ones who appear relatively well one moment and at death’s door the next. It happens to the young and healthy, too.

Patients “look fine, feel fine, then you turn around and they’re unresponsive,” said Diana Torres, a nurse at Mount Sinai Hospital in New York City, the center of the nation’s worst outbreak. “I’m paranoid, scared to walk out of their room.”

Nearly 430,000 cases of COVID-19, the highly infectious lung disease caused by the coronavirus, were confirmed in the United States as of Wednesday afternoon, including more than 14,700 deaths. For the second straight day the virus killed at least 1,900 in a 24-hour period.[/quote]
As with other hot spots, human error was contributory - in NYC, mayor DeBlasio insisted on keeping the city "open for business" until the mounting case numbers forced his hand, at which point the underwater portion of the pandemic iceberg - the asymptomatic silent-spreaders - were in all likelihood already present all over the city in large numbers. In New Orleans, state & local authorities decided that letting the annual huge Mardi Gras party go ahead was a good idea.

It will be interesting to see how Sweden fares. [URL]https://time.com/5817412/sweden-coronavirus/[/URL] [URL]https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-sweden-no-lockdown-test-thousands-deaths-expected-2020-4[/URL]

Re Mardi Gras: [URL="https://news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-pastor-decried-hysteria-dies-230216341.html"]https://news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-pastor-decried-hysteria-dies-230216341.html [/URL]
[URL]https://www.nola.com/news/coronavirus/article_0242427c-7a78-11ea-91e1-0bd92f30bf2c.html[/URL]

[QUOTE=kriesel;542265]It will be interesting to see how Sweden fares. [URL]https://time.com/5817412/sweden-coronavirus/[/URL] [URL]https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-sweden-no-lockdown-test-thousands-deaths-expected-2020-4[/URL][/QUOTE]

I'm worried about that. I live in Denmark but I have family in Sweden, and I do not know what the government in Sweden are doing. I do not like this Anders Tegnell guy, I'm afraid it will end poorly and he will be the one to take the fall.

Denmark has been locked down for 4 weeks now, not as bad as Italy and Spain but still schools, libraries, hairdressers, shopping malls etc. closed and max 10 people allowed to gather. It is working for now at least, the total number of hospitalized in the country never got above 530 with ~160 in intensive care and on ventilators, and now they are all going down. We have 237 deaths and 5,635 confirmed infected but only 62,210 tested, so the number is probably much much higher. They started testing blood from blood donors for Covid-19, I'm not sure if it is the antibody test, and extrapolated from those results that there are probably ~130,000 infected.

I think I jinxed Yemen. Case number one has been identified. Their starter for ten thousand, I guess. :down:

NK, as expected, is perfect and wonderful as always and never gets any of this stuff. :rolleyes:

For the future I think everyone will have to carry around one of those yellow immunisation books to show they are immune to this thing. For those of you that travel a bit you might already have one of the books listing yellow fever, and maybe other shots you have had. Papers please. :book:

Burglaries of businesses up 75% in NYC [url]https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-york-city-sees-more-burglaries-of-businesses-under-coronavirus-emergency-measures-11586008801[/url]
Up 87% in downtown Seattle [url]https://mynorthwest.com/1802378/rantz-seattle-crime-up-after-coronavirus/[/url]

Chicago source reports 30-50% of Covid19 tests are showing antibodies. That's much higher than the percentage showing virus. [URL]https://chicagocitywire.com/stories/530092711-roseland-hospital-phlebotomist-30-of-those-tested-have-coronavirus-antibody[/URL]

EU response discussed, and world and by-nation stats are included in this article [URL]https://www.politico.eu/article/coronavirus-europe-failed-the-test/[/URL]

Possible new insight from Radboud University in Nijmegen (not yet peer reviewed):
[URL]https://www.radboudumc.nl/en/nieuws/2020/radboudumc-researchers-publish-new-insights-into-covid-19[/URL]

[QUOTE=ewmayer;542229]
As with other hot spots, human error was contributory - in NYC, mayor DeBlasio insisted on keeping the city "open for business" until the mounting case numbers forced his hand, at which point the underwater portion of the pandemic iceberg - the asymptomatic silent-spreaders - were in all likelihood already present all over the city in large numbers. In New Orleans, state & local authorities decided that letting the annual huge Mardi Gras party go ahead was a good idea.[/QUOTE]

There's going to be some fascinating statistics coming out of all this, given the different reactions state-by-state to the growing pandemic, the different populations, and different population densities. As of yesterday, the comparison of California and New York is interesting- At 39.5 million people, CA has twice the population of NY (19.5 million), yet CA has 4.6 Covid cases per 10,000 people, while NY has more than 17 times that, at 80.7 cases per 10,000 people. Both states have dense population centers (CA has Los Angeles and the SF Bay area), and NY has Manhattan, of course). As business centers, both states have a lot of international travel in and out, so there probably isn't a big difference regarding when Covid was first introduced in each state. Wonder how much of that 17 times difference is in the reaction (or lack thereof) in New York City. Looking like CA did a good job.

[QUOTE=Spherical Cow;542320]There's going to be some fascinating statistics coming out of all this, given the different reactions state-by-state to the growing pandemic, the different populations, and different population densities. As of yesterday, the comparison of California and New York is interesting- At 39.5 million people, CA has twice the population of NY (19.5 million), yet CA has 4.6 Covid cases per 10,000 people, while NY has more than 17 times that, at 80.7 cases per 10,000 people. Both states have dense population centers (CA has Los Angeles and the SF Bay area), and NY has Manhattan, of course). As business centers, both states have a lot of international travel in and out, so there probably isn't a big difference regarding when Covid was first introduced in each state. Wonder how much of that 17 times difference is in the reaction (or lack thereof) in New York City. Looking like CA did a good job.[/QUOTE]The testing regimens differ. You can't compare so easily.

[QUOTE=retina;542321]The testing regimens differ. You can't compare so easily.[/QUOTE]
Los Angeles (City) has been testing "high risk" people with symptoms for a while and recently opened up to any resident with symptoms. That is outside the standard healthcare system. I suspect they are using their crime lab to process them. And then in the region there are drive-up testing events (by appointment). In San Francisco there was a bunch of work done early to limit the spread. And the closures by local and state government happened sooner in California than New York
[url]https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/04/10/829167659/are-we-flattening-the-curve-states-keep-watch-on-coronavirus-doubling-times[/url].

[QUOTE=retina;542321]The testing regimens differ. You can't compare so easily.[/QUOTE]

Yes, definitely- that's part of the state-by-state differences that hopefully someone drills down into to ferret out answers. Testing regimens, test reporting, definitions; lots of stuff to look at. I think a large part of it will be attributable to the reaction times by local and state governments.

[QUOTE=Spherical Cow;542320]There's going to be some fascinating statistics coming out of all this, given the different reactions state-by-state to the growing pandemic, the different populations, and different population densities. As of yesterday, the comparison of California and New York is interesting- At 39.5 million people, CA has twice the population of NY (19.5 million), yet CA has 4.6 Covid cases per 10,000 people, while NY has more than 17 times that, at 80.7 cases per 10,000 people. Both states have dense population centers (CA has Los Angeles and the SF Bay area), and NY has Manhattan, of course). As business centers, both states have a lot of international travel in and out, so there probably isn't a big difference regarding when Covid was first introduced in each state. Wonder how much of that 17 times difference is in the reaction (or lack thereof) in New York City. Looking like CA did a good job.[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=retina;542321]The testing regimens differ. You can't compare so easily.[/QUOTE]

NY is doing a better job of testing people, but CA and upstate NY locked down before NYC did (by ~6 days), and that made a big difference.

[QUOTE=Spherical Cow;542320]There's going to be some fascinating statistics coming out of all this, given ...[/QUOTE]Deborah Birx made reference to multivariable analysis recently. Different testing regimens/criteria are among those variables. So is demographics, for some unfortunate reasons. Urban density can be rather quickly deadly in plague/pandemic times or times of shortage or unrest. [url]https://www.channel3000.com/dhs-releases-race-ethnicity-statistics-on-covid-19-patients/[/url] People will be doing these analyses and publishing on this for years to come.

[URL]https://www.insider.com/yanomami-tribe-amazon-records-coronavirus-case-2020-4[/URL]
Isolated Brazilian tribe reached by Sars2 Wuhan coronavirus

See, e.g. some of the links in [url=https://www.mersenneforum.org/showpost.php?p=539650&postcount=147]this post[/url]...

[url=https://apnews.com/be17f735971aa03b32794c482f8b9c06]FDA warns Alex Jones to stop pitching bogus virus remedies[/url][quote]WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. health officials are warning conspiracy theorist and radio host Alex Jones to stop pitching bogus remedies for the coronavirus.

The Food and Drug Administration sent a warning letter Thursday ordering Jones to stop falsely claiming that toothpaste, mouth wash and other products sponsored by his show can help prevent COVID-19.
<snip>
The FDA warning follows earlier government warnings against Jones last month. New York’s attorney general Letita James sent a cease-and-desist letter March 12 demanding Jones stop promoting many of the same phony products.
[/quote]

How Did the U.S. End Up with Nurses Wearing Garbage Bags?
 

[URL]https://www.newyorker.com/news/letter-from-trumps-washington/the-coronavirus-and-how-the-united-states-ended-up-with-nurses-wearing-garbage-bags?[/URL]
[QUOTE]On Saturday, March 21st, while [URL="https://www.newyorker.com/tag/donald-trump"]Donald Trump[/URL] was tweeting about the “Chinese virus” and [URL="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/04/06/the-meaning-of-donald-trumps-coronavirus-quackery"]circulating praise[/URL] for the “great job we’ve done,” Eric Ries received a phone call from another Silicon Valley C.E.O. His friend Jeff Lawson, of the firm Twilio, told Ries that, to deal with the rapidly escalating [URL="https://www.newyorker.com/tag/coronavirus"]coronavirus crisis[/URL], the White House was recruiting tech executives to help. Ries—the founder and C.E.O. of a new company, the Long-Term Stock Exchange, and the author of a best-selling book, “[URL="https://www.amazon.com/Lean-Startup-Entrepreneurs-Continuous-Innovation/dp/0307887898"]The Lean Startup[/URL],” which had made him a well-known figure in the Valley—was an obvious choice for someone looking to stand up a high-tech solution to the disaster quickly. He had long preached the virtues of going to market as fast as possible with what he called M.V.P.: minimum viable product.

America was watching, shocked, as doctors and nurses pleaded for protective gear and medical equipment such as ventilators. Ries was asked to help start a Web site that would match hospitals and suppliers. Sure, Ries said, he could have something up and running by Monday. What followed over the next two weeks was an inside glimpse of the dysfunction emanating from Trump’s Washington in the midst of the pandemic, a crash course in the breakdown that has led to nurses in one of the wealthiest countries in the world wearing garbage bags to protect themselves from a virus whose outbreak the President downplayed until it was too late to prepare for its consequences.
[/QUOTE]