[QUOTE=ewmayer;539234]And the "good stuff" amidst what is happening in multiple countries and likely coming soon in the US as well, is what - stock markets offering discounts on their wares?[/QUOTE]

Well, not to mention lower gas prices... :)

[QUOTE=ewmayer;539234]And the "good stuff" amidst what is happening in multiple countries and likely coming soon in the US as well, is what - stock markets offering discounts on their wares?[/QUOTE]

If reports from China are to be believed, new cases of COVID-19 there have fallen off dramatically.

If the calendar is to be believed, Spring is almost here. That may actually be relevant to the thread topic. It is possible that warmer weather could inhibit the spread of the virus.

[QUOTE=PhilF;539238]Well, not to mention lower gas prices... :)[/QUOTE]

Yes, that too. At least in the short term.

EDIT: Yes, the Dow had a bit of a rough day: Today's close 23,851.02 [color=red]-2,013.76 (-7.79%)[/color]

Luckily, the R's have a sure cure for COVID-19. A tax cut for wealthy investors!

[QUOTE=Dr Sardonicus;539239]If reports from China are to be believed, new cases of COVID-19 there have fallen off dramatically.[/QUOTE]

See link in post #91 for a contraian view re. your "If".

Latest - Italy has extended quarantine to entire country. In my neck of the woods, Santa Clara county (Silicon Valley) public health director has banned all public gatherings of over 1000 people, including sporting events such as San Jose Sharks hockey games in downtown San Jose. SiVal has a local cluster of cases, likely because of the many, many techies routinely shuttling between there and tech hubs in E Asia.

And a tragicomic glimpse of life in Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak:

[url=https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v42/n05/wang-xiuying/the-word-from-wuhan]The Word from Wuhan[/url] | LRB
[quote]Schools are suspended until further notice. With many workplaces also shut, notoriously absent Chinese fathers have been forced to stay home and entertain their children. Video clips of life under quarantine are trending on TikTok. Children were presumably glad to be off school – until, that is, an app called DingTalk was introduced. Students are meant to sign in and join their class for online lessons; teachers use the app to set homework. Somehow the little brats worked out that if enough users gave the app a one-star review it would get booted off the App Store. Tens of thousands of reviews flooded in, and DingTalk’s rating plummeted overnight from 4.9 to 1.4.[/quote]

[QUOTE=ewmayer;539331][QUOTE=Dr Sardonicus;539239]If reports from China are to be believed, new cases of COVID-19 there have fallen off dramatically.[/quote]See link in post #91 for a contraian view re. your "If".
<snip>[/QUOTE]I read it. Reports of business activity seem to be fantasy. Nothing, though, about COVID-19 case reporting being phonied up.

BTW the NO[sub]2[/sub] monitoring probably indicates the true state of affairs WRT manufacturing and motor vehicle traffic in the area.

[QUOTE=Dr Sardonicus;539337]I read it. Reports of business activity seem to be fantasy. Nothing, though, about COVID-19 case reporting being phonied up.

BTW the NO[sub]2[/sub] monitoring probably indicates the true state of affairs WRT manufacturing and motor vehicle traffic in the area.[/QUOTE]

If the authorities are willing to go to the lengths described in the article to present a Potemkin business-recovery image, why would they shy away from giving official case numbers a similar treatment? And the article specifically describes mass fakery going on w.r.to manufacturing activity:

"Beijing had started checking Zhejiang businesses' electricity consumption levels, so district officials ordered the companies to start leaving their lights and machinery on all day to drive the numbers up, one civil servant said. Businesses have reportedly falsified staff attendance logs as well."

I wouldn't put it past them to pay drivers to run otherwise-empty cars and buses around the cities all day long, either - one of the economic knock-on effects of the pandemic is a glut in petroleum products and crashing fuel prices, so such fakery is cheaper than it otherwise would be.

I would dearly love to believe the recovery-connoting numbers, but the long history of Chinese officialdom publishing fake economic and other demographic numbers does not give me confidence in this regard.

[QUOTE=ewmayer;539345]If the authorities are willing to go to the lengths described in the article to present a Potemkin business-recovery image, why would they shy away from giving official case numbers a similar treatment?[/quote]If you've got any evidence that they're actually doing this, by all means trot it out. However, they didn't seem to have any problem with reporting large numbers of new cases until fairly recently. I'm not sure how to explain why they would suddenly change policy in this regard. I suppose it's possible they were running out of hospital beds. Perhaps that could be checked.

But if you assume, for the sake of discussion, that they [i]are[/i] grossly under-reporting new cases, this would have consequences. There would likely be a lot of sick people who need treatment but weren't being admitted to hospitals. What would be happening to them? If they simply vanished, there'd be a [i]lot[/i] of friends and relatives asking questions.

Of course I'm generally skeptical about what Chinese officialdom says, but so far I've seen no indication that they've done an about-face and are now studiously ignoring new cases of COVID-19. I suppose one way to do that would be, just make and distribute a whole lot of dummy test kits. That would be one way to make sure a lot of patients tested negative!

I also find it hard to believe that there have only been a few cases in Russia, and none at all in DPRK.

[quote]I wouldn't put it past them to pay drivers to run otherwise-empty cars and buses around the cities all day long, either - one of the economic knock-on effects of the pandemic is a glut in petroleum products and crashing fuel prices, so such fakery is cheaper than it otherwise would be.[/QUOTE]

I like your theory about driving empty buses and cars around. There's another practical reason for doing this: Diesel fuel and gasoline don't keep in storage indefinitely, especially if storage conditions aren't ideal.

Again, the NO[sub]2[/sub] monitoring could be probative.

[url=https://apnews.com/52e12ca90c55b6e0c398d134a2cc286e]WHO declares that virus crisis is now a pandemic[/url][quote]GENEVA (AP) — Expressing alarm both about mounting infections and inadequate government responses, the World Health Organization declared Wednesday that the global coronavirus crisis is now a pandemic but added that it’s not too late for countries to act.

By reversing course and using the charged word "pandemic" that it previously shied away from, the U.N. health agency sought to shock lethargic countries into pulling out all the stops.

"We have called every day for countries to take urgent and aggressive action. We have rung the alarm bell loud and clear," said Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the WHO chief.

"All countries can still change the course of this pandemic. If countries detect, test, treat, isolate, trace and mobilize their people in the response," he said. "We are deeply concerned by the alarming levels of spread and severity and by the alarming levels of inaction."[/quote]

Let us not forget the Admin's prescience WRT the COVID-19 pandemic: [url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/to-your-health/wp/2018/05/10/top-white-house-official-in-charge-of-pandemic-response-exits-abruptly/]Top White House official in charge of pandemic response exits abruptly[/url][quote]By
Lena H. Sun

[b][color=red]May 10, 2018[/color][/b] at 4:32 PM EDT

The top White House official responsible for leading the U.S. response in the event of a deadly pandemic has left the administration, and the global health security team he oversaw has been disbanded under a reorganization by national security adviser John Bolton.

The abrupt departure of Rear Adm. Timothy Ziemer from the National Security Council means no senior administration official is now focused solely on global health security. Ziemer's departure, along with the breakup of his team, comes at a time when many experts say the country is already underprepared for the increasing risks of a pandemic or bioterrorism attack.

Ziemer's last day was Tuesday, the same day a new Ebola outbreak was declared in Congo. He is not being replaced.

Pandemic preparedness and global health security are issues that require government-wide responses, experts say, as well as the leadership of a high-ranking official within the White House who is assigned only this role.

"Health security is very fragmented, with many different agencies," said J. Stephen Morrison, senior vice president at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "It means coordination and direction from the White House is terribly important."

The personnel changes, which Morrison and others characterize as a downgrading of global health security, are part of Bolton's previously announced plans to streamline the NSC. Two members of Ziemer's team have been merged into a unit in charge of weapons of mass destruction, and another official's position is now part of a unit responsible for international organizations. White House homeland security adviser Tom Bossert, who had called for a comprehensive biodefense strategy against pandemics and biological attacks, is out completely. He left the day after Bolton took over last month.

NSC spokesman Robert Palladino said Wednesday the administration "remains committed to global health, global health security and biodefense, and will continue to address these issues with the same resolve under the new structure."[/quote]

[QUOTE=Dr Sardonicus;539436][url=https://apnews.com/52e12ca90c55b6e0c398d134a2cc286e]WHO declares that virus crisis is now a pandemic[/url][/QUOTE]

Looks like they decided to un-retire the term ... love the "charged" bit, yes, we really want to use non-alarming anodyne words to describe unfolding global catastrophes. Otherwise people might actually become sufficiantly alarmed so as to take matters seriously, rather than getting out there and shopping and dining and boosting GDP.

Re. disinfecting hard surfaces – I have found a simple solution of 20:1-diluted bleach soaked into a folded-up paper towel square to work well – the bleachy smell is a bit annoying but at that dilution it’s tolerable and doesn’t irritate my skin, either. Just finished wiping down the cases and keyboards of my old Mac Classic – it hasn’t looked so white since I bought it – and my 15-y.o. candybar cellphone. A few minutes later, can’t even smell it on my hands anymore. Also great for countertops, doorknobs, etc, and very cheap. That of course assumes one has bleach in the house, or one’s local store still has some – but even a small bottle goes a long way, used thusly.

Had annual checkup with my doctor at the local community clinic yesterday afternoon – very blue-collar clientele, mostly Latino|a, but well-funded, well-run and highly competent staff – they are clearly acutely attuned to the danger but apparently no suspect cases yet. I wished them all well, “y’all are on the front lines of this”-style … this could simply be the calm before the storm. (I dearly hope not.)

[b]Edit[/b]: A few updates from around the world:

o [url=https://www.ibtimes.com/coronavirus-update-70-germany-could-get-infected-covid-19-merkel-says-2938103]Coronavirus Update: 70% Of Germany Could Get Infected By COVID-19, Merkel Says[/url] | IB Times -- neighboring Austria going into countrywide lockdown, including closing its border with hard-hit Italy, but I expect there was already a significant amount of cross-border transmission, especially as the border is with northern Italy, where the epidemic first started spreading in that country. I recall watching on TV a recent X-C ski competition in the dual-named Antholz/Anterselva, dual-named because it's in the former Austrian province of South Tyrol, ceded to Italy after WW1 but still more German-Tyrolean than Italian. IOW, close cross-border cultural and business ties in that area. And of course, EU-style cross-border freedom of movement, for both people and the microbes they harbor.

o [url=https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=285978]South Korea reported 242 new cases of the new coronavirus on Wednesday, up from 131 new cases a day earlier[/url] | Korea Times -- SK had seemed to be makig good progress recently, new daily cases dropping steadily. Most worrisomely about today's spike is a significant cluster of newly diagnosed cases in the capital, Seoul.

[QUOTE=CRGreathouse;538786]So the premise is that there's a conspiracy of major bondholders to pressure the WHO and/or its members to avoid labeling this outbreak a pandemic. Evidence for this might include kompromat used on WHO members or evidence of bondholders conspiring. Evidence suggesting against this hypothesis might include the WHO labeling the outbreak a pandemic (not impossible under the scenario of course, but presumably less likely).[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=Dr Sardonicus;539436][url=https://apnews.com/52e12ca90c55b6e0c398d134a2cc286e]WHO declares that virus crisis is now a pandemic[/url][/QUOTE]

As expected.

[QUOTE=CRGreathouse;539475]As expected.[/QUOTE]

Why today and not yesterday? Why not a week ago?

WHO declares COVID-19 a pandemic
 

[QUOTE=masser;539476]Why today and not yesterday? Why not a week ago?[/QUOTE]
Sounds like they were waiting and hoping for our Charlatan-in-Chief to get off the dime, but finally ran out of patience.

[QUOTE=Dr Sardonicus;539477]Sounds like they were waiting and hoping for our Charlatan-in-Chief to get off the dime, but finally ran out of patience.[/QUOTE]

Since when is POTUS tasked with such global-health pronouncements? I know you can't pass up any chance to bash Trump, but this is just silly. Trump did just ban all airline travel between US and Europe, which is both huge and (IMO) now warranted - my only question there is, what about travel between US and Asia? Is that already mostly shut down due to previous such moves?

@CharlesG: You seem to think the WHO pronouncement somehow settles the mini-debate, but it's clear events finally got so ridculously, obviously pandemic level as to force their hand. Shouldn't they be trying to get out ahead of events, based on the notion of "erring on the side of caution" when the potential stakes are this high? Their belated move today fits the saying "dashing out to the front of a riot and calling it a parade."

[QUOTE=ewmayer;539482]@CharlesG: You seem to think the WHO pronouncement somehow settles the mini-debate, but it's clear events finally got so ridculously, obviously pandemic level as to force their hand.[/QUOTE]

Similarly, if you had said this a week ago it would have had a lot more force. It's easy enough to drop hints, but you never said that anything of this sort would happen, nor did you make any counter-claims to my prediction.

[QUOTE=ewmayer;539482]STrump did just ban all airline travel between US and Europe, which is both huge and (IMO) now warranted.[/QUOTE]ITYM "Schengen countries".

Closing the border between Italy and Austria is akin to forbidding travel between, say, California and Oregon. I don't see the US closing state borders yet.

[QUOTE=ewmayer;539482]Since when is POTUS tasked with such global-health pronouncements? I know you can't pass up any chance to bash Trump, but this is just silly. [/QUOTE]
If you'd bothered reading the article I'd linked to, you wouldn't have said this. In particular, it says (my emphasis)[quote]"We have called every day for countries to take urgent and aggressive action. We have rung the alarm bell loud and clear," WHO’s chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said Wednesday.

"All countries can still change the course of this pandemic. If countries detect, test, treat, isolate, trace and mobilize their people in the response," he said. [b]"We are deeply concerned by the alarming levels of spread and severity and by the alarming levels of inaction."[/b][/quote]Now I suppose it's possible he wasn't [i]specifically[/i] referring to the US. But IMO one would have to be either totally delusional, or just plain lying, to deny that right up until the WHO declaration, [i]Il Duce[/i] has been doing more trying to wish the problem away, than he has done actually to deal with it.

[QUOTE=xilman;539497]Closing the border between Italy and Austria is akin to forbidding travel between, say, California and Oregon. I don't see the US closing state borders yet.[/QUOTE]From things that I have heard, many in Oregon have been wanting to do that for years.

[QUOTE=xilman;539497]Closing the border between Italy and Austria is akin to forbidding travel between, say, California and Oregon. I don't see the US closing state borders yet.[/QUOTE]
In 1936, the Chief of the LAPD tried to close California's border crossings (including with Oregon) to protect the state from immigrants afflicted with the disease of poverty. This came to be called the [url=https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2003-mar-09-me-then9-story.html]Bum Blockade[/url].[quote]For a few months in 1936, the Los Angeles Police Department launched a foreign excursion of sorts -- a "Bum Blockade" on the state’s borders. The LAPD deployed 136 officers to 16 major points of entry on the Arizona, Nevada and Oregon lines, with orders to turn back migrants with "no visible means of support."

The man responsible, Police Chief James Edgar "Two-Gun" Davis, was a former cotton-picker from Texas who came to California in 1911, dirt poor and uneducated. Davis, whose moniker referred to his extraordinary marksmanship with a pistol, liked to say that constitutional rights were of "no benefit to anybody but crooks and criminals."[/quote]

And a Europe travel ban- Unbelievable.

[URL="https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/12/business/airline-stocks-trump-europe-travel-ban/index.html"]https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/12/business/airline-stocks-trump-europe-travel-ban/index.html[/URL]

Again, as an American, apologies to the global community for the COWH (Current Occupant of the White House). We're trying to get this corrected. Honest.

Norm

[QUOTE=Spherical Cow;539512]And a Europe travel ban- Unbelievable.
[/QUOTE]We have quite enough seeding of coronavirus in the states from Europe already; 38 states and DC at last count have it. Italy had the good sense to quarantine an area, and adjust to the whole nation later. Chinese early action was denial, not effective action. Iran's response was to sneer at quarantine and other generic measures for combating diseases lacking cures or vaccines as "obsolete". Are you also in favor of express flights from Wuhan or Teheran to an airport near you? Trump is being criticized both for action and for inaction. That may mean he got it about right.

[QUOTE=Spherical Cow;539512]And a Europe travel ban- Unbelievable.[/QUOTE]ITYM "Schengen travel ban".

[QUOTE=kriesel;539521]We have quite enough seeding of coronavirus in the states from Europe already; 38 states and DC at last count have it. Italy had the good sense to quarantine an area, and adjust to the whole nation later. Chinese early action was denial, not effective action. Are you also in favor of express flights from Wuhan to an airport near you? Trump is being criticized both for action and for inaction. That may mean he got it about right.[/QUOTE]

No, being in between "action" and "inaction" doesn't make him right. Nice cliche, but not valid. Action is needed, but not late, limited action. Why ban flights from Europe, but not the UK? Or the Far East, where Japan and South Korea have far more cases than the US? From the latest statistics I've seen, China still has 20,000 active cases that are known about.

As late as Tuesday, he was saying "Stay calm. It will go away." Then he makes a limited, surprise statement about a ban on the EU (but no where else), and then has to clear it up later.

No, this is not a case of being right because people on both sides of opposing viewpoints are unhappy at you. Nice cliche, but that's just not the case. He simply waited too long, and now he's not doing it right.

[QUOTE=xilman;539522]ITYM "Schengen travel ban".[/QUOTE]Further on this,

[url]https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-51857462[/url] has a good description and map which shows what is and what is not the Schengen area. Large chunks of western Europe is within Schengen; large chunks of eastern Europe are outside the area.

Included are some interesting (to my mind) reactions from the European diplomatic community and some equally interesting corrections made to the initial statement which were made by US officials. With regard to the latter, I'm applying Hanlon's Razor for the time being.

[QUOTE=Spherical Cow;539523]Why ban flights from Europe, but not the UK?[/QUOTE]ITYM "from Schengen but not the rest of Europe?"

My take is that Italy is (apparently) in deep :poop: and that the Schengen area (until a few days ago) allowed free movement from that country without any border controls.

OTOH, travel between non-Schengen and Schengen places (such as between LGW and SPC with which I have had frequent and recent personal experience) amounts to passport checks on arrival. For all practical purposes such as infection control those checks are essentially useless.

Perhaps I am mistaken, but I would think that, in the end, the epidemic will cover the whole world. In something I saw yesterday on television there was a hint the efforts at containment are more directed at preventing the different health systems being submerged by acute cases, than at really trying to stop the virus . Stopping it would mean stopping all travel, transport of goods and contact between people...

Jacob

[QUOTE=S485122;539527]Perhaps I am mistaken, but I would think that, in the end, the epidemic will cover the whole world.[/QUOTE]I would be astounded if you are mistaken.

Just wait until the epidemic hits South America, India and (especially) sub-Saharan Africa, They are likely to experience a few megadeaths between them, IMO. Purely from an epidemiological perspective densely populated China had the benefit of an authoritarian government and in-depth population monitoring.

AFAICT, the closest historical parallel is with Spanish flu, another coronavirus pandemic, which killed more people than the first world war. The over-developed world can afford intensive care units but does not yet have a usable vaccine for their own use, let alone those other countries.

[QUOTE=xilman;539522]ITYM "Schengen travel ban".[/QUOTE]

Yes, you are right; I should have specified Schengen, which is the accurate description of the area from which travel is banned. Although, if you are a legal permanent resident of the US, or a family member, you can still travel from the Schengen area to the US.

And, it looks like travel from China is still restricted; I thought that had been lifted. But, travel from the other infected areas (South Korea, Japan, Australia, UK, etc.) to the US has not been banned.

Yes, the medical care is a huge worry- unless the infection rate is at least delayed and spread out a little over time, medical facilities and care could be swamped, resulting in more deaths than if everyone can be properly cared for. As you say, people who do not live in the over-developed countries are severely endangered.

Anyway, my point is that the administration's response is wrong. Too little, too late is a better cliche. An article I can agree with is here- [URL="https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/12/814522489/singapore-wins-praise-for-its-covid-19-strategy-the-u-s-does-not"]https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/12/814522489/singapore-wins-praise-for-its-covid-19-strategy-the-u-s-does-not[/URL]

Norm

The movie is making a comeback of sorts [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contagion_(2011_film[/url])

The order from China to one of its doctors to "stop spreading rumors' of a virus problem, 3 January 2020. [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic#/media/File:%E6%9D%8E%E6%96%87%E4%BA%AE%E7%9A%84%E8%AE%AD%E8%AF%AB%E4%B9%A6.png[/url]

[QUOTE=xilman;539528]AFAICT, the closest historical parallel is with Spanish flu, another coronavirus pandemic, which killed more people than the first world war. The over-developed world can afford intensive care units but does not yet have a usable vaccine for their own use, let alone those other countries.[/QUOTE]

No, flu viruses are entirely distinct from Coronaviruses, and [url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza]1918 Spanish Flu is Influenza Type A[/url]:
[quote][b]Influenzavirus A[/b]

This genus has one species, influenza A virus. Wild aquatic birds are the natural hosts for a large variety of influenza A. Occasionally, viruses are transmitted to other species and may then cause devastating outbreaks in domestic poultry or give rise to human influenza pandemics. The influenza A virus can be subdivided into different serotypes based on the antibody response to these viruses. The serotypes that have been confirmed in humans are:

H1N1, which caused Spanish flu in 1918, and Swine Flu in 2009
H2N2, which caused Asian Flu in 1957
H3N2, which caused Hong Kong Flu in 1968
H5N1, which caused Bird Flu in 2004
H7N7, which has unusual zoonotic potential
H1N2, endemic in humans, pigs and birds
H9N2
H7N2
H7N3
H10N7
H7N9, rated in 2018 as having the greatest pandemic potential among the Type A subtypes
H6N1, which only infected one person, who recovered[/quote]
But yes, the last time the world faced a pandemic of comparable virulence and lethality was 1918. Back in my grad school days I had, for several years, a subcription to Scientific American's [i]Library of Science[/i], which published a monthly book on some particular topic. Let it lapse after a few years because I couldn't keep up and there were relatively few really memorable volumes, but one of my favorites among those I kept is [i]Viruses[/i], by Arnold Levine. He has an entire chapter dedicated to Type A influenza, whose frontispiece is a last sketch by artist Egon Schiele, of his dying wife Edith in her sickbed. Schiele himself succumbed to the Spanish flu a few days later. (BTW, those LOS books can be gotten cheap at many used bookstores and e.g. eBay).

News you can use:

[url=https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/03/dont-panic-the-comprehensive-ars-technica-guide-to-the-coronavirus/]Don’t Panic: The comprehensive Ars Technica guide to the coronavirus [Updated 3/12][/url] | Ars Technica

This bit struck me as especially notable:
[quote][b]Should I go to a doctor if I think I have COVID-19?[/b]

If you believe you have COVID-19, the CDC advises you should [b]call[/b] your healthcare provider—do not make an unannounced office visit. Your healthcare provider, with the help of your state’s health department and the CDC, can determine if you should come in and get tested. Obvious reasons to test include the presence of COVID-19-like symptoms, having had contact with someone known to be infected, living in a place where transmission is occurring, or if you have recently traveled to a place where transmission is occurring.[/quote]

[QUOTE=ewmayer;539539]No, flu viruses are entirely distinct from Coronaviruses, and [url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza]1918 Spanish Flu is Influenza Type A[/url]:

But yes, the last time the world faced a pandemic of comparable virulence and lethality was 1918..[/QUOTE]

??

Has everyone forgotten about....... Polio???

[QUOTE=R.D. Silverman;539551]Has everyone forgotten about....... Polio???[/QUOTE]

That was scary, to be sure, but mortality/morbidity an order of magnitude less - per Wikipedia the dreaded "Paralytic poliomyelitis" outcome occurs in 0.1–0.5% of cases (5-10% of which prove fatal), whereas Covid-19 appears to have a *death* rate of over 2%, with a serious-case rate ~20%.

Like Spanish Flu, though, polio was especially scary in that it struck down many people in the prime of health and youth.

[QUOTE=ewmayer;539539]No, flu viruses are entirely distinct from Coronaviruses, and [url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza]1918 Spanish Flu is Influenza Type A[/url]:

But yes, the last time the world faced a pandemic of comparable virulence and lethality was 1918. Back in my grad school days I had, for several years, a subcription to Scientific American's [i]Library of Science[/i], which published a monthly book on some particular topic. Let it lapse after a few years because I couldn't keep up and there were relatively few really memorable volumes, but one of my favorites among those I kept is [i]Viruses[/i], by Arnold Levine. He has an entire chapter dedicated to Type A influenza, whose frontispiece is a last sketch by artist Egon Schiele, of his dying wife Edith in her sickbed. Schiele himself succumbed to the Spanish flu a few days later. (BTW, those LOS books can be gotten cheap at many used bookstores and e.g. eBay).[/QUOTE]

I also subscribed and ended up with numerous shelves of those books. Kept my favorites, but 90% of what I had have now made their way to the used book store. I had one with me for airplane-reading on a trip to China in the late 80s about the history of subatomic particles. The interpreter assigned to me turned out to be a physicist who had worked on China's atomic bomb project. As an intellectual, though, he had later been "purged" during the Cultural Revolution, sent to a work farm, and then worked as an interpreter ever since because he was fluent in English. Incredible waste of knowledge. I gave him the Sci. Am. book as a Thank-you parting gift, even though he was way beyond the level of that book, of course. Very impressive guy.

[QUOTE=Spherical Cow;539558]I also subscribed and ended up with numerous shelves of those books. Kept my favorites, but 90% of what I had have now made their way to the used book store. I had one with me for airplane-reading on a trip to China in the late 80s about the history of subatomic particles. The interpreter assigned to me turned out to be a physicist who had worked on China's atomic bomb project. As an intellectual, though, he had later been "purged" during the Cultural Revolution, sent to a work farm, and then worked as an interpreter ever since because he was fluent in English. Incredible waste of knowledge. I gave him the Sci. Am. book as a Thank-you parting gift, even though he was way beyond the level of that book, of course. Very impressive guy.[/QUOTE]

Nice - those books are well-made and lavishly illustrated, and thus make fine gifts. I believe I have the one you mention ... by Steven Weinberg, yes? BTW, I [url=https://www.amazon.com/Viruses-Scientific-American-Library-1991-11-21/dp/B01K0TRXXW]found the one on viruses on Amazon.com[/url], both from AMZN and several resellers. I expect one could easily find multiple eBay sellers or used bookstores where one could buy a collection of multiple volumes - perfect for the household with science-interested kids aged 10-17, say.

[QUOTE=ewmayer;539555]Covid-19 appears to have a *death* rate of over 2%[/QUOTE]Over 6% of diagnosed cases for which outcome is known.
Fatalities worldwide 4720; total recovered 68324; CFR=4720/(4720+68324) = 0.0646 = 6.46% case fatality rate.
With an additional 128343-68324-4720 = 55299 cases known for which the outcomes of death or recovery have not yet been reached.
[URL]https://www.foxnews.com/health/coronavirus-vaccine-developments-where-does-it-stand[/URL]

If you survive the virus does it grant you immunity against future infections?

[QUOTE=Xyzzy;539607]If you survive the virus does it grant you immunity against future infections?[/QUOTE]
My guess would be, "Yes -- in the short term, but [i]only[/i] the short term."

I base this on the fact that the "common cold" is caused by coronaviruses. You might only get [i]this[/i] year's version of the common cold once, then be immune. But by [i]next[/i] year, the viruses have mutated enough that last year's antibodies won't protect you, and you get another cold.

[QUOTE=Dr Sardonicus;539609]My guess would be, "Yes -- in the short term, but [i]only[/i] the short term."

I base this on the fact that the "common cold" is caused by coronaviruses. You might only get [i]this[/i] year's version of the common cold once, then be immune. But by [i]next[/i] year, the viruses have mutated enough that last year's antibodies won't protect you, and you get another cold.[/QUOTE]

No, the common cold is caused by a Rhinovirus.

[URL="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rhinovirus"]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rhinovirus[/URL]

[QUOTE=Xyzzy;539607]If you survive the virus does it grant you immunity against future infections?[/QUOTE]
Normally yes, but there are reports that some people test positive for COVID-19 after recovery, ie two negative test. I believe that's the exception not the rule. There are also reports from China that a secondary infection is usually more severe.

[QUOTE=Dr Sardonicus;539511]In 1936, the Chief of the LAPD tried to close California's border crossings (including with Oregon) to protect the state from immigrants afflicted with the disease of poverty. This came to be called the [URL="https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2003-mar-09-me-then9-story.html"]Bum Blockade[/URL].[/QUOTE][INDENT]Lots of folks back East, they say, is leavin' home every day
Beatin' the hot old dusty way to the California line
'Cross the desert sands they roll, gettin' out of that old dust bowl
They think they're goin' to a sugar bowl but here's what they find
Now the police at the port of entry say
"You're number fourteen thousand for today"

Oh, if you ain't got the do re mi folks you ain't got the do re mi
Why you better go back to beautiful Texas
Oklahoma, Kansas, Georgia, Tennessee

California is a garden of Eden, a paradise to live in or see
But believe it or not you won't find it so hot
If you ain't got the do re mi
-Woody Guthrie

[/INDENT]

[QUOTE=Dr Sardonicus;539511]In 1936, the Chief of the LAPD tried to close California's border crossings (including with Oregon) to protect the state from immigrants afflicted with the disease of poverty. This came to be called the [url=https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2003-mar-09-me-then9-story.html]Bum Blockade[/url].[/QUOTE]The LAPD also took people back to the California/Arizona border and dropped them off on the the other side of the line.

[QUOTE=tServo;539615]No, the common cold is caused by a Rhinovirus.

[URL="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rhinovirus"]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rhinovirus[/URL][/QUOTE]
It seems that both types of virus often cause colds.

The [url=https://www.hopkinsguides.com/hopkins/view/Johns_Hopkins_ABX_Guide/540143/all/Coronavirus]Johns Hopkins page on coronavirus[/url] says (my emphasis)

[quote]CLINICAL

Routine Coronavirus Infections

Disease spectrum
[list][*]A common cause of mild-to-moderate [url=https://www.hopkinsguides.com/hopkins/view/Johns_Hopkins_ABX_Guide/540570/all/Upper_Respiratory_Infections]upper respiratory tract infection[/url] (URI) in humans. [b]Some studies suggest it is a more common cause of URI infection than [url=https://www.hopkinsguides.com/hopkins/view/Johns_Hopkins_ABX_Guide/540476/all/Rhinovirus]rhinovirus[11][/url][/b].[/list][list][*]An occasional cause of viral pneumonia.[/list][list][*]A cause of wheezing in persons with reactive airway disease.[/list][list][*]An occasional cause of gastroenteritis in babies.[/list]
Epidemiology
[list][*]Most commonly occurring in winter and early spring.[/list][list][*][b]Most people have anti-coronavirus antibodies, reflecting universal exposure, but reinfection appears common, suggestive that there are many circulating serotypes of the virus in the human population[/b][/list][list][*]Incubation period ~3d.[/list][list][*]Shedding may occur longer or also occur in asymptomatic individuals.[/list]
Diagnosis
[list][*]Coronavirus infection usually not diagnosed specifically for routine infections causing GI or respiratory illness, therefore none of the below are routinely performed.[/list][list][*]RT-PCR or other molecular assays: most sensitive and specific diagnostic approach on respiratory specimens.[/list][list][*]Coronavirus HKU1, NL63, 229E and OC43 part of BioFire® FilmArray®, for example, FDA-approved.[/list][list][*]Serology (IFA, ELISA) with acute/convalescent samples is sensitive[/list][list][*]Immuno-electron microscopy (not commercially available)[/list][list][*]Viral culture (often unsuccessful from human samples as opposed to animals).[/list]
Coronavirus disease 2019–2020 (see [url=https://www.hopkinsguides.com/hopkins/view/Johns_Hopkins_ABX_Guide/540747/all/Coronavirus_COVID_19__SARS_CoV_2_]COVID-19[/url] module for details)

<snip>

[11] Davis BM, Foxman B, Monto AS, et al. Human coronaviruses and other respiratory infections in young adults on a university campus: Prevalence, symptoms, and shedding. Influenza Other Respir Viruses. 2018. [PMID:29660826]

Comment: In this young adult population, 30% of viral URTIs had HCoV while rhinovirus was second at 7.6%.[/quote]

some recent numbers
 

These are worldwide totals, combining figures from governments of assorted credibility levels.

5065 deaths total /(69623 recovered +5065 deaths)=.0678 case fatality rate = 6.78% of confirmed cases with an outcome determined
136390-69623-5065=61702 active cases where the outcome is yet to be determined
[URL]https://www.foxnews.com/world/chinese-deny-americans-coronavirus-drugs[/URL]

Case fatality rate is up slightly from yesterday's 6.46% figure.

Dr. stating virus may be contained in May by warm humid weather, crossing fingers on both hands at 1:19 of video
[URL]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=anQQkPpbNJI[/URL]

Coronavirus - The Hidden Cases - Why We Must Shut Everything Down And Do It Now
 

[URL]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2020/03/coronavirus-the-hidden-cases-why-we-must-shutdown-everything-and-do-it-now-.html[/URL]
[QUOTE]The powers that be in our 'western' societies have decided to do nothing significant against the onslaught the novel coronavirus SARS-Cov-2 is now causing.

There will not even be an attempt to do like China or South Korea which have thrown all resources at stopping the spread of the virus while it was still possible. The 'west' now seem to be beyond that point.[/QUOTE][QUOTE]The Donald Trump administration has done its best to prevent an early detection of the outbreak in Washington State and likely also elsewhere:

As luck would have it, Dr. Chu had a way to monitor the region. For months, as part of a research project into the flu, she and a team of researchers had been collecting nasal swabs from residents experiencing symptoms throughout the Puget Sound region.

To repurpose the tests for monitoring the coronavirus, they would need the support of state and federal officials. But nearly everywhere Dr. Chu turned, officials repeatedly rejected the idea, interviews and emails show, even as weeks crawled by and outbreaks emerged in countries outside of China, where the infection began.

By Feb. 25, Dr. Chu and her colleagues could not bear to wait any longer. They began performing coronavirus tests, without government approval.

What came back confirmed their worst fear. They quickly had a positive test from a local teenager with no recent travel history. The coronavirus had already established itself on American soil without anybody realizing it.

The CDC and the FDA would not have that:

The message from the federal government was blunt. “What they said on that phone call very clearly was cease and desist to Helen Chu,” Dr. Lindquist [the state epidemiologist in Washington] remembered. “Stop testing.”[/QUOTE]Re the attached chart:
[QUOTE][URL="https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca"]Pueyo[/URL]:[INDENT]This is one of the most important charts. It shows in orange histograms the daily official number of cases in the Hubei province: How many people were diagnosed that day.
The grey histograms show the true daily coronavirus cases. Crucially, these weren’t know at the time. We can only figure them out looking backwards.
What this means is that the orange histograms show you what authorities knew, and the grey ones what was really happening.
On January 21st, the number of new diagnosed cases (orange) is exploding: there are around 100 new cases. In reality, there were 1,500 new cases that day, growing exponentially. But the authorities didn’t know that. What they knew was that suddenly there were 100 new cases of this new illness.
Two days later, authorities shut down Wuhan. [B]At that point, the number of diagnosed daily new cases was ~400. Note that number: they made a decision to close the city with just 400 new cases in a day.[/B] In reality, there were 2,500 new cases that day, but they didn’t know that.
[/INDENT][/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=kladner;539637][URL]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2020/03/coronavirus-the-hidden-cases-why-we-must-shutdown-everything-and-do-it-now-.html[/URL]
Re the attached chart:[/QUOTE]
Something missing from the chart, is Jan 1 and Jan3, Wuhan police threaten several local doctors with prosecution unless they agree to "stop spreading false rumors" that there's a new virus in town that's dangerous. see [URL]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Li_Wenliang[/URL]

During errands yesterday, I noted that it seemed to be business as usual here in my part of the US midwest, with normal levels of traffic and shopping. The grocery store was nearly empty shelves in places, particularly toilet paper was below 10% ocupancy of shelf space.

SWMBO and I went shopping this afternoon. At the supermarket we found shelves bare of dried pasta (fresh varieties were plentiful), rice and toilet rolls because of panic-buying in response to the coronavirus --- well -- panic. We were restricted to two boxes of tissues ("Kleenex" for those reading in the North American colonies) which is no big deal for us.

On the way home we dropped by the Hudson Ale House in Trumpington. The pub has eight hand-pumps on the bar. Only three had beer attached to them.

The situation must be really serious if people are panic-buying real ale.

[QUOTE=kladner;539637][URL]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2020/03/coronavirus-the-hidden-cases-why-we-must-shutdown-everything-and-do-it-now-.html[/URL]
Re the attached chart:[/QUOTE]

MoA site owner Bernhard (a.k.a. 'b') sure changed his tune over the past month - he was very dismissive of the threat early on, one of his readers (poshpotdllr, comment #37 to above thread) collected the Covid-19 series of headlines:
[i]
The Coronavirus - No Need To Panic - Jan 25 2020
Novel Coronavirus Defies Conspiracy Theories As Data Shows Its Coming Decline - Feb 1 2020
The Epidemic Recedes - Number Of New Coronavirus Cases In Decline - Feb 8 2020
Coronavirus - Statistical Change Causes Confusion - New Case Count Continues To Decline - Feb 13 2020
Coronavirus - The Decline Of New Cases Continues - Economic Ripples Begin To Emerge - Feb 21 2020
As Virus Spreads Over The Planet Governments Are Slow To React - Feb 27 2020
Coronavirus - Its Time To Press Your Government To React Faster - Feb 29 2020
Coronavirus - Bad Preparation And Propaganda Increase The Onsetting Panic - Mar 6 2020
Is The Coronavirus Really More Dangerous Than The Flu? - Mar 9 2020
[/i]
Basically he was dismissive early on, took all the official stats out of China at face value, then when TSHTF he blamed "governments around the world" for doing exactly what he himself had done, not taking the threat seriously enough early on. I still read him for his take on ME issues, but on other matters, take him with a giant grain of salt.

As for my onw prepping - I laid in plenty of supplies - several months' worth of dry pasta, canned beans, beef jerky, PB&J - gonna fill freezer w/bread and bagels over coming week. Got plenty of booze laid in, too, though no Corona brand beer - not because of the name, but because I only favor such "pisswater lagers" in hot weather. :)

Fresh fruit and veggies are main concern w.r.to food supply-chain disruptions - backyard garaden alas not an option for those of us lacking a backyard.

My flatmates - both physical therapists - already on heightened alert via work notifications, and they always shower first thing after getting home from work. I've already been in habit of scrubbing hands w/kitchen sponge and soapy water every time come in from outside, but now disinfecting sponge with diluted bleach every night - 20:1 diluted bleach soaked into a folded paper towel or cloth rag also works great for wiping down surfaces, a little goes a long way. Also been snorting my patented recipe of equal parts saline and 70% rubbing alcohol up nose several times per day (a trick I learned logn ago to help ward off and reduce severity of sinus infections), that also works in eyes, stings for a few seconds, then good.

[QUOTE=ewmayer;539644]As for my onw prepping - I laid in plenty of supplies - several months' worth of dry pasta, canned beans, beef jerky, PB&J - gonna fill freezer w/bread and bagels over coming week. Got plenty of booze laid in, too, though no Corona brand beer - not because of the name, but because I only favor such "pisswater lagers" in hot weather. :)

Fresh fruit and veggies are main concern w.r.to food supply-chain disruptions - backyard garden alas not an option for those of us lacking a backyard.
[/QUOTE]Don't forget the popcorn. Excellent shelf life without refrigeration, pretty good nutrition and economics, and a satisfying crunch when consumed. Similar, although shorter shelf life without refrigeration or dehydration, for potatoes. [url]https://www.healthline.com/nutrition/popcorn-nutrition-and-health#section2[/url]

We've got a sure cure...
 

First, we have the renouned "Church of Bleach" (Genesis II Church of Health and Healing) promoting its panacea through useful fools:

[url=https://www.thedailybeast.com/qanon-conspiracy-theorists-magic-cure-for-coronavirus-is-drinking-lethal-bleach]QAnon-ers' Magic Cure for Coronavirus: Just Drink Bleach![/url]

And then, not one, but [i]two[/i] of my favorite flim-flam men!

[url=https://nypost.com/2020/03/12/new-york-attorney-general-tells-alex-jones-to-stop-selling-bogus-coronavirus-cures/]New York attorney general tells Alex Jones to stop selling bogus coronavirus cures[/url][quote]New York Attorney General Letitia James has sent a cease and desist letter to conspiracy theorist Alex Jones for allegedly [url=https://nypost.com/2020/03/11/alex-jones-peddling-toothpaste-he-claims-can-kill-coronavirus/]selling bogus coronavirus killing toothpaste[/url].

"As the coronavirus continues to pose serious risks to public health, Alex Jones has spewed outright lies and has profited off of New Yorkers' anxieties," James alleged in a statement the same day her office sent the letter.

James' office [url=https://nypost.com/2020/03/06/ny-ag-letitia-james-orders-televangelist-jim-bakker-to-quit-advertising-coronavirus-cures/]sent similar letters[/url] to televangelist Jim Bakker and Dr. Sherrill Sellman after Sellman said on an interview on Bakker's show Feb. 12 that "Silver Solution" can cure certain strains of the virus.[/quote]

Good ol' Jim Bakker rates a second mention.

[url=https://www.npr.org/2020/03/11/814550474/missouri-sues-televangelist-jim-bakker-for-selling-fake-coronavirus-cure]Missouri Sues Televangelist Jim Bakker For Selling Fake Coronavirus Cure[/url][quote]Missouri is the first state to file a lawsuit against Bakker for selling his coronavirus "treatment," but others have also been warning him to stop peddling his snake oil. On March 3, the New York Attorney General's Office sent a [url=https://ag.ny.gov/sites/default/files/bakker_cease_and_desist_letter_notification.pdf]cease-and-desist letter[/url] to Bakker, accusing him of defrauding the public.

"Your show's segment may mislead consumers as to the effectiveness of the Silver Solution product in protecting against the current outbreak," wrote Lisa Landau, chief of the New York Attorney General's Office's health care bureau. The World Health Organization "has noted that there is no specific medicine to prevent or treat this disease," the letter said. It gave Bakker 10 business days to comply or face legal action.[/quote]

[QUOTE=Dr Sardonicus;539624]It seems that both types of virus often cause colds.

The [url=https://www.hopkinsguides.com/hopkins/view/Johns_Hopkins_ABX_Guide/540143/all/Coronavirus]Johns Hopkins page on coronavirus[/url] says (my emphasis)[/QUOTE]

Of course both types cause UTI, but the composition of the population in that ONE study is suspect because of its very selectiveness: College students.

If I click on the link near the beginning of your post marked [11], it shows me the Johns Hopkins page about Rhinovirus that states:
" Human rhinovirus is responsible for up to 80% of common colds"

I suspect you meant that link to go to their Coronavirus page.


On another topic, Adrian Monk wasn't just a germaphobe with OCD; he was ahead of his time:
It's a jungle out there
Disorder and confusion everywhere
No one seems to care
Well I do
Hey, who's in charge here?
It's a jungle out there
Poison in the very air we breathe
Do you know what's in the water that you drink?
Well I do, and it's amazing
People think I'm crazy, 'cause I worry all the time
If you paid attention, you'd be worried too
You better pay attention
Or this world we love so much might just kill you
I could be wrong now, but I don't think so
'Cause there's a jungle out there
It's a jungle out there ---------- Randy Newman

[QUOTE=ewmayer;539539]No, flu viruses are entirely distinct from Coronaviruses, and [url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza]1918 Spanish Flu is Influenza Type A[/url][/QUOTE]Fairy Nuff: I accept that you are correct and that I was wrong. I abase myself in your general direction.

o [url=https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/first-covid-19-case-happened-in-november-china-government-records-show-report]First Covid-19 case happened in November, China government records show - report[/url] | World news | The Guardian
[quote]The origins of the virus have become part of US-China diplomatic conflict, fuelled by US officials calling the disease “Chinese coronavirus” or “Wuhan virus”.

It’s widely accepted, including by the head of China’s Center for Disease Control and Prevention that the virus originated in Hubei. However in recent ​weeks Chinese officials have started suggesting or outright claiming that the virus ​did not ​originate​ in China, but perhaps in the US​, a conspiracy theory that is gaining traction​.

On Thursday, Zhao Lijian, a foreign ministry spokesman, suggested without evidence that the US army may have brought it into China.[/quote]
The CTers who run rampant in the [i]Moon of Alabama[/i] comments section are busily parroting the US-brought-it-to-China inanity, including claims that US *military* personnel did so. Yes, must've been infected troops stationed at one of the numerous military bases the US has in China ... oh wait, I see RT.com [url=https://www.rt.com/news/482990-china-coronavirus-us-come-clean/]says[/url] the above Chinese official is specifically referring to THE U.S. "military delegation that traveled to Wuhan in October for the Military World Games, weeks before the city confirmed the outbreak in December. The delegation was part of the 300-member group of American athletes taking part in the multi-sport event held every four years." Suuure - and I bet the US military had a working vaccine with which they had already immunized their own troops, which is why the virus remained confined to the designated superspreaders in the above delegation, or something. It all seems quite plausible (nods head vigorously).

[QUOTE=ewmayer;539539]Back in my grad school days I had, for several years, a subcription to Scientific American's [i]Library of Science[/i], which published a monthly book on some particular topic. Let it lapse after a few years because I couldn't keep up and there were relatively few really memorable volumes, but one of my favorites among those I kept is [i]Viruses[/i], by Arnold Levine. He has an entire chapter dedicated to Type A influenza, whose frontispiece is a last sketch by artist Egon Schiele, of his dying wife Edith in her sickbed. Schiele himself succumbed to the Spanish flu a few days later. (BTW, those LOS books can be gotten cheap at many used bookstores and e.g. eBay).[/QUOTE]

Apparently the series ended at 40 volumes, of which I have ~30. [url=https://www.ebay.com/itm/Complete-Set-Series-Lot-of-40-Scientific-American-Library-books-by-Weinberg-/333343777503]This eBay seller has more than 10 complete used sets available[/url] for just over $200, which includes free economy (Media Mail) shipping to US ... "and many other countries" is not free, alas. I just ordered a set for my 11-year-old nephews, I figure they can use extra reading material of the home-schooling variety for the coming summer, what with mass school closures already underway. (Not theirs yet, but I expect it's only a matter of time.)

[QUOTE=xilman;539654]Fairy Nuff: I accept that you are correct and that I was wrong. I abase myself in your general direction.[/QUOTE]

Oh, stop groveling! Every time I try to talk to someone it's "sorry this" and "forgive me that" and "I'm not worthy"...

I know that nowadays gluten is being described as worse than bubonic plague, and carbohydrates as a sure ticket to an early grave, but if you are foolhardy enough to ignore these warnings, I suggest pasta. Good shelf life. I was buying groceries and saw my favorite brand was on sale, so I topped up my supply.

[QUOTE=Xyzzy;539607]If you survive the virus does it grant you immunity against future infections?[/QUOTE]

Unknown - given that it's a rapidly-mutating RNA virus, best one can hope for is partial immunity to similar strains, such as is the case for flu. OTOH if it's more like the rhinoviri which cause most colds, that would mean little or no immunity-down-the-road.

@kriesel: And possibly scarier than the outright death rate - in the sense that living with permanent disability resulting from a pathogenic infection is harder on the infectee and the medical system than dying from it - is the occurrence of long-term aftereffects in severe cases. This was true for SARS, the closest analog we have to Covid-19:

[url=https://www.thestar.com/life/health_wellness/2010/09/02/sars_survivors_struggle_with_symptoms_years_later.html]SARS survivors struggle with symptoms years later[/url] | Toronto Star

And appears to also be true of Covid-19:

[url=https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3074988/coronavirus-some-recovered-patients-may-have]Coronavirus: some recovered patients may have reduced lung function and are left gasping for air while walking briskly, Hong Kong doctors find[/url] | South China Morning Post

[QUOTE=ewmayer;539644]
Also been snorting my patented recipe ... then good.
[/QUOTE]
I find that highly unwise/dangerous and irresponsible to post to a public forum at a time like this when some people don't think straight. The sinuses have direct connection to the brain.
I would highly recommend deleting the entry as well as my reference to such unwise recommendation. There have been [B]deaths[/B] associated with snorting even filtered water.

Even things as simple as vinegar are dangerous to the eyes and there are guidances on medical literature against it.

[QUOTE=a1call;539668]I find that highly unwise/dangerous and irresponsible to post to a public forum at a time like this when some people don't think straight. The sinuses have direct connection to the brain.
I would highly recommend deleting the entry as well as my reference to such unwise recommendation. There have been [B]deaths[/B] associated with snorting even filtered water.

Even things as simple as vinegar are dangerous to the eyes and there are guidances on medical literature against it.[/QUOTE]

Every substance is dangerous under some conditions. You didn't provide links, and provided misinformation of your own:

o Sinuses do not "have direct connection to the brain", rather they share some veinous drainage with the brain. [url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cavernous_sinus]Wikipedia[/url] cites the (very real) resulting dangers of e.g. pimple-popping:
[quote]Because of its connections with the facial vein via the superior ophthalmic vein, it is possible to get infections in the cavernous sinus from an external facial injury within the danger area of the face. In patients with thrombophlebitis of the facial vein, pieces of the clot may break off and enter the cavernous sinus, forming a cavernous sinus thrombosis. From there the infection may spread to the dural venous sinuses. Infections may also be introduced by facial lacerations and by bursting pimples in the areas drained by the facial vein.[/quote]
So what's more dangerous - allowing pathogens to live freely in your sinuses, or not? All I know is that for me and me alone, the mix I mentioned appears to provide effectively sinus-clearing and irritation relief. Do not try this yourself - let professional idiots like me do it.

o [url=https://www.poison.org/articles/vinegar-164]Vinegar[/url] - No mention of the many thousands of people blinded each year by accidents with salad dressing, but extreme caution is clearly warranted.

Here is one link:

[url]https://amp.usatoday.com/amp/2263240002[/url]

[QUOTE=a1call;539668]I find that highly unwise/dangerous and irresponsible to post to a public forum at a time like this ... Even things as simple as vinegar are dangerous to the eyes and there are guidances on medical literature against it.[/QUOTE]Seconded. Even the allergists' recommended neti pot washes, weak sodium bicarbonate & chloride solution, can on occasion cause irritation, or significant illness. Imagine a small bacterial or viral colony established in a biofilm in the sinuses, patient is subclinical. Now take them into solution to establish colonies all throughout the sinuses, like a bunch of pathogens hitching a ride at a water park. And incubate a bit. Patient is feverish and bedridden due to widespread sinus infection. [URL]https://sinucleanse.com/[/URL]

When I was taking care of my mom, her physician recommended an over-the-counbter kit for rinsing out the nasal passages, sold OTC by NeilMed. The kit is just a plastic squeeze bottle and pre-measured packets of salts. You dissolve a packet of salts in a squeeze bottle of distilled water.

The rinse is just to get crud out of the nasal passages, but that it did, and it was enough to improve my mom's ability to breathe through her nose considerably. And that's mainly what these things are for -- relief for nasal passages clogged with snot, and/or irritated by pollen or other things.

One thing I'd be worried about with putting alcohol in the nose and eyes is the irritation it might cause. You might avoid the virus, but wind up with watery eyes, a drippy nose, and sneezing fits all the same! Or, the irritation might indicate actual injury to the tissues, which then might be susceptible to all sorts of infections.

Then too, the antiseptic might upset the normal community of microbes that are constantly slugging it out with each other -- and with any opportunistic pathogens that might show up at the party.

I'd guess that hand-washing and disinfecting surfaces is the most practical approach to keeping the virus at bay. Imagine...

<wavy lines>

Your filthy hands touch a virus-ridden surface. And then, a bit later... a little itch near your mouth. Or your eyes. Or, a little tickle in your nose. Fingers to the rescue, and -- Boom!

</wavy lines>

If you [i]inhale[/i] the virus, it's reasonably likely to go right past anywhere you might try to rinse or disinfect. So blocking that port of entry would have to be further upstream -- like everyone wearing masks.

Seems to be getting more mainstream:

[QUOTE]
Doctors push for treatment of coronavirus with blood from recovered patients
[/QUOTE]

[url]https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-care/doctors-push-treatment-coronavirus-blood-recovered-patients-n1158476[/url]

When I have a cold or other congestion I mix up some [I]mild[/I] saline solution, snort it up my nose and let it drain out of my mouth. It's great for loosening up crud, and it diminishes the funky sense of smell that colds induce in me.

My Mom could do this in the opposite direction. She could gargle saline, close her mouth and drive it up and out of her nose. I cannot replicate this. But then, she had the genetically determined ability to roll her tongue laterally, which I do not. Perhaps there were other muscular abilities further back in her mouth and throat, or just a different gag reflex control than I have.

[QUOTE=xilman;539640]The situation must be really serious if people are panic-buying real ale.[/QUOTE]
(from the web)
[ATTACH]21884[/ATTACH]


Actually, joking apart, here in Thai we are quite comfortable, no restrictions yet, but we have seen some "scary messages" received by our daughter in Adelaide, from local Aussie supermarket chains and shops (Coles, Woolworths, Foodland, etc), about shopping restriction for a lot of things, as well as photos with empty shelves, sent by friends there.

Here, yet, luckily, no issue, and most goods are produced locally, and abundant (Thailand exports all these things), all shelves are full, life's good.

(photo by swmbo last night shopping)
[ATTACH]21885[/ATTACH]

Perhaps a musical interlude might cheer some of the people here. With that in mind I present [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VO74GSl-NSk[/url]

For those who want something a bit more soothing, here is a somewhat different musical interlude.

An entire Mass is probably too much, but in Charles Gounod's Saint Cecilia Mass there is a short interlude between the Credo and the Sanctus, called the [url=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bSQ3dKv3cew]Offertoire[/url] (Invocation or Offertory).

Note: Ad blocking is a must!

latest stats
 

From Johns Hopkins Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) [URL]https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6[/URL]
As of now, 5550/(71718+5550) = .0718 = 7.18% fatality rate among resolved cases (recovered or died)
147838-71718-5550 = 70,570 identified cases have outcomes yet to be determined
These are the worldwide figures.

In the US, the numbers are currently too small to compute a credible country-specific case fatality rate:
2175 total cases diagnosed
37 WA fatalities
4 CA
2 FL
1 GA
1 NJ
1 SD
46 total
CA 6 recovered;
IL 2
AZ 1
MA 1
WA 1
WI 1
12 total
The bulk of the US fatalities, 31, are from one nursing home in WA (Washington state), a location one might expect dominated by both advanced age and preexisting medical conditions, risk factors for fatalities

When I think of those enterprising folks selling phony coronavirus remedies, I hearken back to the old, original [i]Star Trek[/i], and one of its recurring characters:
[quote]KIRK: Who caught you?

MUDD: That, sir, is an outrageous assumption.

KIRK: Yes. Who caught you?

MUDD: I sold the Denebians all the rights to a Vulcan fuel synthesiser.

KIRK: And the Denebians contacted the Vulcans.

MUDD: How'd you know?

KIRK: That's what I would have done.

MUDD: It's typical police mentality. They've got no sense of humour. They [i]arrested[/i] me.

MCCOY: Oh, I find that shocking.

MUDD: Worse than that. Do know what the penalty for fraud is on Deneb Five?

SPOCK: The guilty party has his choice. Death by electrocution, death by gas, death by phaser, death by hanging.

MUDD: The [i]key[/i] word in your [i]entire[/i] peroration, Mister Spock, was, [i]death.[/i] Barbarians. Well, of course, I left.[/quote]-- I, Mudd
Stardate: 4513.3
Original Airdate: 3 Nov, 1967

[QUOTE=kriesel;539700]The bulk of the US fatalities, 31, are from one nursing home in WA (Washington state), a location one might expect dominated by both advanced age and preexisting medical conditions, risk factors for fatalities[/QUOTE]The proper term is "Skill Nursing Facility" SNF (pronounced sniff).

[QUOTE=Uncwilly;539704]The proper term is "Skill Nursing Facility" SNF (pronounced sniff).[/QUOTE]oh really? The referral sites seem to think differently. Maybe it's a regional thing. When I was a youngster it was common to hear them referred to as "old folks' homes".
[URL]https://www.senioradvice.com/nursing-homes/galesville-wi[/URL]
Reminds me of George Carlin's bit about shell shock. [URL]https://www.thoughtco.com/soft-language-euphemism-1692111[/URL]

Hmm. Definitions:
[URL]https://medical-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/skilled+nursing+facility[/URL] skilled nursing home, temporary placement, recovery is plausible
[URL]https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/nursing%20home[/URL] nursing home, long term, recovery frequently not expected, as someone in decline due to advanced age

[QUOTE=Uncwilly;539704]The proper term is "Skill Nursing Facility" SNF (pronounced sniff).[/QUOTE]

Has anyone noticed a drop-off in GIMPS/NFSNet/YoYo throughput? With all the school
closings there should be some noticeable effect.

[QUOTE=Uncwilly;539704]The proper term is "Skill Nursing Facility" SNF (pronounced sniff).[/QUOTE]<google google> Hmm. It seems "skilled nursing facility" usually means a facility geared to temporary care for rehab patients, while "nursing home" indicates a facility providing care for permanent residents. It would appear that the [url=https://lcca.com/locations/wa/kirkland/]Life Care Center of Kirkland[/url] provides both types of care (my emphasis):[quote]Positioned near Juanita Bay and northeast of Seattle, Washington, Life Care Center of Kirkland is the perfect choice for patients and residents seeking skilled nursing care, inpatient and outpatient rehabilitation and short-term and long-term care in a premier [b]nursing home[/b].[/quote]

[QUOTE=R.D. Silverman;539710]Has anyone noticed a drop-off in GIMPS/NFSNet/YoYo throughput? With all the school
closings there should be some noticeable effect.[/QUOTE]It's too soon to be sure, but there are some downturns visible at
[url]https://www.mersenne.org/primenet/graphs.php[/url] that look to me to be similar to normal variation.

[QUOTE=kriesel;539712]It's too soon to be sure, but there are some downturns visible at
[url]https://www.mersenne.org/primenet/graphs.php[/url] that look to me to be similar to normal variation.[/QUOTE]

Instead of (or in addition to) the daily plots a 30/60/90 day moving average would
better show the trend.

[QUOTE=ewmayer;539658]Apparently the series ended at 40 volumes, of which I have ~30. [url=https://www.ebay.com/itm/Complete-Set-Series-Lot-of-40-Scientific-American-Library-books-by-Weinberg-/333343777503]This eBay seller has more than 10 complete used sets available[/url] for just over $200, which includes free economy (Media Mail) shipping to US ... "and many other countries" is not free, alas. I just ordered a set for my 11-year-old nephews, I figure they can use extra reading material of the home-schooling variety for the coming summer, what with mass school closures already underway. (Not theirs yet, but I expect it's only a matter of time.)[/QUOTE]

I stand corrected, eBay seller just contacted me to effect of "Volume 10: The Second Law" is unavailable, [url=https://www.goodreads.com/series/181771-scientific-american-library-series]complete series is 70 volumes[/url] of which they have ~60 in stock, asked me to pick a replacement from Vols 41-70, I chose Book 53: A Short History of the Universe by Joseph Silk by way of a replacement.

Sis - mother of the aforementioned nephews - just e-mailed me, we enjoy getting together for classic hard-fought bouts of Family Death Scrabble especially around holidays and long rainy weekends. She suggested some kind of online Scrabble app allowing us to play remotely could be a fun thing to do in coming everything-shut-down months. I don't do smartphones (well, aside from repurposing select bet-up used ones to run Mlucas under a freeware linux environment, that is :), but that poses an interesting DIY problem. My reply:
[quote]We could always set up matching game boards at both ends, but how to handle the tile-drawing? Sure, could designate one of us as the official tile-drawer using their bag, but then that person would need to know the others' tiles in order to tell them what they drew.

Hmm, I need to think if there's some way to write a little Python code to solve this - the code uses a random number generator together with the initial counts of the various letters, shows me my tiles as I draw them, but for your turns I just enter "number needed", it selects them but instead of telling me what it drew, it e-mails you - Python scripts can do that kind of web stuff.[/quote]

[QUOTE=a1call;539672]Here is one link:

[url]https://amp.usatoday.com/amp/2263240002[/url][/QUOTE]

Speaking of pathogens, you allowed Google Amp to infect your USA Today link. I DDG'ed usatody.com and the article number and [url=https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2018/12/10/after-brain-eating-amoeba-death-what-water-safe-neti-pot/2263240002/]found the original here[/url]. From the article:

"The woman, 69, was using tap water filtered using a Brita Water Purifier in a neti pot, according to a report published in the peer-reviewed International Journal of Infectious Diseases. She died of died from Balamuthia mandrillaris, an amoeba that might live in water and can travel to the brain, causing deadly infection."

Bacterial infection - you just reinforced my conviction, I'll stick to my 50/50 alcohol/saline mix, thank you very much. Note - I don't snort as in "fill nostrils with liquid" but rather use a repurposed little 'atomizing' (really small-droplet-izing) squeeze-spray bottle. Wait a few seconds and blow nose to remove thus-loosened crud.

[QUOTE=kriesel;539700]From Johns Hopkins Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) [URL]https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6[/URL]
As of now, 5550/(71718+5550) = .0718 = 7.18% fatality rate among resolved cases (recovered or died)
147838-71718-5550 = 70,570 identified cases have outcomes yet to be determined
These are the worldwide figures.[/QUOTE]

An expert echoes the dire numbers based on cases so far:
[quote]Let’s dispel the notion that “novel coronavirus is just like the flu”. Sharing this striking comparison of #Flu, #COVID19, #SARS and #MERS made by @BioRender. #COVID19 is 30x more deadly and almost 2x more contagious than the flu. We have no existing immunity to COVID19. pic.twitter.com/fdJgsSFMnB

— Prof. Akiko Iwasaki (@VirusesImmunity) [url=https://twitter.com/VirusesImmunity/status/1238475009712160769?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw]March 13, 2020[/url][/quote]

o h/t NC reader [url=https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2020/03/200pm-water-cooler-3-13-2020.html#comment-3316127]The Rev Kev[/url]:
[quote]The Prime Minister of the Netherlands, “following the advice of experts”, has decided to keep the schools open. What experts would that be? MPs did agree that parents who keep their children home from school without reason should not be fined however.

[url]https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2020/03/coronavirus-government-under-fire-for-keeping-schools-open/[/url][/quote]

o And a moving [url=https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2020/03/200pm-water-cooler-3-13-2020.html#comment-3316106]"everything is shutting down" field-level report[/url] by a reader in the same NC page.

[QUOTE=xilman;539692]Perhaps a musical interlude might cheer some of the people here. With that in mind I present [URL]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VO74GSl-NSk[/URL][/QUOTE]
Thank you. I was totally unaware of that opus. :smile:

On the Dutch schools: the government is convening a meeting of all the dissenting experts tomorrow to try and reach a concensus.

[QUOTE=ewmayer;539731]<snip>
From the article:

"The woman, 69, was using tap water filtered using a Brita Water Purifier in a neti pot, according to a report published in the peer-reviewed International Journal of Infectious Diseases. She died of died from Balamuthia mandrillaris, an amoeba that might live in water and can travel to the brain, causing deadly infection."
<snip>[/QUOTE]<google google> [i]Balamuthia mandrillaris[/i] is [i]not[/i] the "brain-eating amoeba" I'd read about, which is [i]Naegleria fowleri[/i]. It generally lives in warm water, and has claimed some unfortunate swimmers as victims. But apparently the "brain-eating amoeba" isn't really an amoeba.

[i]Balamuthia mandrillaris[/i] can come through tap water, and causes a fatal encephalitis.

Although tap water is generally safe to drink, it is [i]not[/i] sterile, and I would not recommend its use in nasal rinses and such unless you boiled it first. I'm not sure how those use-at-home water filters are WRT water-dwelling microbes, but I would be leery. I used distilled water when making up my mom's nasal rinse, and I sterilized the bottle after each use. Sometimes I re-sterilized it before the next use as well.

A lot of faucets have aerators, and these are probably a paradise for waterborne microbes. I have found it prudent to take aerators off and clean them every so often, simply because of the bits of mineral crud that collect in them. I don't know how well vinegar kills the animalcules, but it probably isn't good for them.

I imagine a 35% or so alcohol solution keeps your atomizer reasonably sterile.

[QUOTE=kladner;539733]Thank you. I was totally unaware of that opus. :smile:[/QUOTE]You're welcome.

For those of you in lock-down, this might be comforting

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RZ2oXzrnti4[/url]

simulitis
 

One thing the simulations are missing is no dots turn dark, stop moving, and get removed after being counted.
[URL]https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/?tid=pm_pop_b&itid=sf_[/URL]

[QUOTE=Nick;539734]On the Dutch schools: the government is convening a meeting of all the dissenting experts tomorrow to try and reach a concensus.[/QUOTE]

I'm having a hard time understanding why there is not an obvious consensus of "the experts" to effect that "we must shut down the schools because the young, as a consequence of the fact that they tend to get a milder form of the infection, are much more likely to want to continue their normal busy social interactions and then infect the very-at-risk older people they come into contact with." The death rate above age 70 is frighteningly high.

[b]Edit:[/b] just saw post to effect "Tonight the Netherlands shut down nearly completely, except for supermarkets, food stores, pharmacies, etc. No restaurants, schools, gyms, universities, bars, movies, museums, etc. for the foreseeable future. An eerie silence has descended on Amsterdam." Better late than never.

[QUOTE=a1call;536199]
*Assuming an incubation period of 14 days:

**Theoretically speaking if all the people avoid close contact for just 15 days then the carriers could be recognized and the epidemic could be eradicated

**Theoretically speaking if all the people would live in close contact in groups numbering a maximum of 2 people avoiding close contact for just 30 days would be sufficient to eradicate the epidemic

** ...
..
**Theoretically speaking if all the people would live in close contact in groups numbering a maximum of n people avoiding close contact for just n.(14+1) days would be sufficient to eradicate the epidemic

Just my 2 cents:smile:[/QUOTE]

I think we have seen evidence that what works is isolation in small scale such as has been done in China, South-Korea and now Austria with banning gatherings of more than 5 people.
At this stage where exponential growth in infections are in most countries of the world, large scale isolation such as closing of the boarders is completely ineffective and a waste of effort and resources. We are all citizens of Earth and should isolate in as small groups as possible to have this disease eradicated as soon as possible, IMHO.:smile:

Well, I just love all the amateur pandemic experts here.

Shutting down the planet has many other consequences, some of which are worse than the disease. People needing medicines, from places that stop producing them, will die. Children not in school need their health worker parents to leave work to look after them, depriving more needy patients of care. etc. etc. etc. Have you all done the sums and figures to see which action has the best net outcome?

[QUOTE=retina;539811]Well, I just love all the amateur pandemic experts here.

Shutting down the planet has many other consequences, some of which are worse than the disease. People needing medicines, from places that stop producing them, will die. Children not in school need their health worker parents to leave work to look after them, depriving more needy patients of care. etc. etc. etc. Have you all done the sums and figures to see which action has the best net outcome?[/QUOTE]Good evening. My name is Paul Ryan. I used to be Speaker of the House. Dr Sardonicus has kindly let me post using his login.

Everyone's bound to get infected anyway, so we should just get on with life as usual. Not only would this be much less disruptive than shutting down all social gatherings, schools, restaurants, international travel, etc., but it will truly end the epidemic as quickly as possible. Besides, with a "frighteningly high" mortality rate among the elderly, it would work wonders to solve the financial problems of Medicare and Social Security.

Thank you.

Tonight's numbers: total 167444, deaths 6440, recovered 76038
high bound cfr 6440/(76038+6440) = 0.078 =7.8% of resolved cases
low bound cfr 6440/167444 = .0385 = 3.85% of all cases
Low bound is understated because death rate of active cases is unlikely to be zero;
high bound is thought to be overstated because some deaths occur quickly while recovery takes longer.
Active cases 167444-6440-76038 = 84966.
Over the weekend China's case total has been exceeded by the rest of the globe.
[URL]https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6[/URL]

<sarcasm>
Precisely, specially since they only have one, perhaps two years to live anyways. Why postpone the inevitable?
Let's alt just sit back and let the [STRIKE]herd[/STRIKE] nature take its course, just as if we are watching a movie.
<\sarcasm>

[QUOTE=retina;539811]Shutting down the planet has many other consequences, some of which are worse than the disease. People needing medicines, from places that stop producing them, will die. Children not in school need their health worker parents to leave work to look after them, depriving more needy patients of care. etc. etc. etc. Have you all done the sums and figures to see which action has the best net outcome?[/QUOTE]

My state's health department will have many people missing this week because the school system has just closed. Everyone is frantic; they're looking for a way to get them back because they already have a manpower shortage. There are hard choices here.

[QUOTE=Dr Sardonicus;539816]Good evening. My name is Paul Ryan. I used to be Speaker of the House. Dr Sardonicus has kindly let me post using his login.

Everyone's bound to get infected anyway, so we should just get on with life as usual. Not only would this be much less disruptive than shutting down all social gatherings, schools, restaurants, international travel, etc., but it will truly end the epidemic as quickly as possible. Besides, with a "frighteningly high" mortality rate among the elderly, it would work wonders to solve the financial problems of Medicare and Social Security.

Thank you.[/QUOTE]
Well put. If all get infected, and "at risk" persons like me and folks who are older have the common decency to die quickly and quietly, it will be much better for the insurance industry, at least. Hospital and Pharma BUSINESSES may have different takes on this.

[QUOTE=kriesel;539817]Tonight's numbers: total 167444, deaths 6440, recovered 76038
high bound cfr 6440/(76038+6440) = 0.078 =7.8% of resolved cases
low bound cfr 6440/167444 = .0385 = 3.85% of all cases
Low bound is understated because death rate of active cases is unlikely to be zero;
high bound is thought to be overstated because some deaths occur quickly while recovery takes longer.
Active cases 167444-6440-76038 = 84966.
...[/QUOTE]Aren't the bounds you compute overstated because of the mild cases that are not diagnosed but do transmit the virus ? Obviously those cases are not counted, but there seem to be a consensus that their number is significant.

Jacob

[QUOTE=S485122;539839]Aren't the bounds you compute overstated because of the mild cases that are not diagnosed but do transmit the virus ? Obviously those cases are not counted, but there seem to be a consensus that their number is significant.

Jacob[/QUOTE]
Perhaps so. But we can't use data we don't have. People that are not symptomatic are not being tested or diagnosed. Tests are not 100% reliable.
I suppose a lowest bound would use the nation's human population in the denominator. But that stat seems both very optimistic and not useful for making extrapolations while the pandemic is going on.

If we wanted to determine how many had been exposed, and cost/effort/testkit-supply was no issue, how slight an encounter between the virus and a person's immune system would be detectable; how many viable virii at peak level in a person? Would antibodies from prior contact with SARS be distinguishable from COVID-19 exposure response? Does an immune response killing a single weakened virus particle, or breaking down and disposing of a single dead virus particle, picked up from a metal surface, "count" as infection or exposure to the virus?

One way to look at it is we're attempting to gauge case fatality rate. There's a definition for that. It's the fatality rate among diagnosed cases. Cases so mild they're not diagnosed are not part of the computation, by definition. [URL]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_human_disease_case_fatality_rates[/URL] Note that this list has SARS at 11% CFR.
That distinction of diagnosed cases versus all cases and possible immunity/carrier status of the asymptomatic leads back to the need for social distancing for everyone, not only the symptomatic or recovering or particularly vulnerable due to age or other preexisting conditions. There are cases diagnosed for which no infection source could be identified, and there does seem to be transmission from some that are not symptomatic, or not symptomatic for a few more days after transmission. The propagation rate R[SUB]0[/SUB] must be lowered.

[url]https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/03/that-time-world-of-warcraft-helped-epidemiologists-model-an-outbreak/[/url]

[QUOTE=kriesel;539845]<snip>
I suppose a lowest bound would use the nation's human population in the denominator. But that stat seems both very optimistic and not useful for making extrapolations while the pandemic is going on.[/QUOTE]If it were anywhere close to right, it would all be over within a couple of weeks.

[FONT="Arial Black"][SIZE="2"][COLOR="Red"]Mod note:[/COLOR][/SIZE][/FONT] I moved the game play encryption posts to their own thread.
[url]https://www.mersenneforum.org/showthread.php?t=25369[/url]

[YOUTUBE]Kas0tIxDvrg[/YOUTUBE]


[YOUTUBE]mCa0JXEwDEk[/YOUTUBE]

The Administration is simply [i]furious[/i] about a voicemail (predictably described as [i]viral[/i]) warning of a national quarantine being planned for the US in several weeks. Officials are denouncing it as foreign disinformation.

Apparently the Admin thinks that giving the American people disinformation on COVID-19 is [i]its[/i] sole prerogative. If it's any comfort, foreign disinformation campaigns would have a lot of catching-up to do. Here is a sampling of our Great Leader's pronouncements:

[quote]Jan. 22: "We have it totally under control."

Jan. 24: "It will all work out well."

Feb. 14: "We have a very small number of people in the country, right now, with it. It's like around 12. Many of them are getting better. Some are fully recovered already. So we're in very good shape."

Feb. 19: "I think it's going to work out fine. I think when we get into April, in the warmer weather, that has a very negative effect on that and that type of a virus. So let's see what happens, but I think it's going to work out fine."

Feb. 24: The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA. We are in contact with everyone and all relevant countries. CDC & World Health have been working hard and very smart. Stock Market starting to look very good to me!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) February 24, 2020

Feb. 26: "Because of all we've done, the risk to the American people remains very low. … When you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero. That's a pretty good job we've done."

Feb. 28: "It's going to disappear. One day, it's like a miracle, it will disappear."

March 12: "It's going to go away. ... The United States, because of what I did and what the administration did with China, we have 32 deaths at this point … when you look at the kind of numbers that you're seeing coming out of other countries, it's pretty amazing when you think of it."

March 15: "This is a very contagious virus. It's incredible. But it's something that we have tremendous control over."[/quote]

Impressive display of foolish ignorance...


Meanwhile, he got some hints that a german company is near the head of the competition to find a vaccine, and what is his instinctive reaction: Get it for the US _exclusively_. (yes, Canadians, Brits, Australians and the rest of the world, you'ld be out, or probably you'ld have to pay it all and more ;-)


Knowing that german universities are involved in the project makes it even stranger to believe that somebody thinks that he could simply buy out the product.

Trump is of course doing his usual mix of NYC RE wheeler-dealer, pro wrasslin heel and carnival barker, but it seems there is no lack of "doh!" company among the leaders of fellow western nations:

[url=https://www.politico.eu/article/coronavirus-europe-incompetence-pandemic/]Coronavirus: The incompetence pandemic[/url] | POLITICO