With all the money involved and payments to people to stay home and do nothing, it is puzzling to me why the resources are not focused at increasing the production capabilities and making more labs. There are 8G people to vaccinate.
Start vaccinating the labourers and scientists and pay them to increase production capabilities worldwide. They can go back to hospitality and travel jobs once everyone that wants is vaccinated.

As for Native American's, I saw today that Biden has selected a Native American woman to be his [I]Secretary Of The Interior.[/I] Perhaps sometime down the road, things will not be so bleak for them.

Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands are temporarily banning flights from the UK as a precaution in connection with the latest virus mutation.

I wonder what's the hesitation from the rest of the world for.
Would expect Australia and New Zealand to follow soon.
Late reaction last time is what put the world in the pandemic situation.
OTOH, a more transmittable mutation is usually a function of less mortality. A virus that kills its host more effectively would be less successful in spreading too far.

[QUOTE=Nick;566758]Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands are temporarily banning flights from the UK as a precaution in connection with the latest virus mutation.[/QUOTE]

I wonder what The Federal Aviation Administration in Washington, D.C. is waiting for. A lot of flights from Heathrow arrive at JFK and LaGuardia in NYC every day. Logan in Boston and Dulles in D.C would get them as well.

[QUOTE=storm5510;566786]I wonder what The Federal Aviation Administration in Washington, D.C. is waiting for. A lot of flights from Heathrow arrive at JFK and LaGuardia in NYC every day. Logan in Boston and Dulles in D.C would get them as well.[/QUOTE]I find "A lot" rather surprising but perhaps I have not been paying attention. Non-cargo traffic between the US and Europe has fallen immensely in recent months.

Many news reports are imprecise on exactly what flights from the UK are banned. Several do state that Germany was still allowing cargo flights. Some reports said "travel" from the UK was being banned, indicating [i]passenger[/i] transport.

I haven't heard anything about the US responding to the new strain of the virus in the UK. But I do not expect much from the FAA. A recent [url=https://apnews.com/article/us-news-transportation-9e2ba9c0b9b0a5b1f1c1d87a8dc0bb61]news story[/url] about how corruptly a Senate investigation found the FAA and its parent agency the Transportation Department to have acted [i]vis a vis[/i] Boeing, after a House investigation found much the same thing, does not fill me with confidence.

"Scottish exporters are warning millions of pounds worth of food could go to waste"
[URL]https://planetradio.co.uk/clyde/local/news/channel-chaos-over-coronavirus-fears/[/URL]

A new blood test for Covid patients gives a better prediction of which patients will have trouble throwing off the illness.

[URL]https://elifesciences.org/articles/63195[/URL]

[QUOTE=xilman;566793]I find "A lot" rather surprising but perhaps I have not been paying attention. Non-cargo traffic between the US and Europe has fallen immensely in recent months.[/QUOTE]

I just did a search. There are 28 flights scheduled to depart London for points in the U.S. [U]today[/U]. It shows the carriers. I didn't see any which are strictly freight carriers, like UPS or FedEx. What I looked at is [URL="https://www.google.com/travel/flights/search?tfs=CBwQAhokagcIARIDTEhSEgoyMDIwLTEyLTIxcg0IAhIJL20vMDJfMjg2GiRqDQgCEgkvbS8wMl8yODYSCjIwMjAtMTItMjJyBwgBEgNMSFJwAYIBCwj___________8BQAFIAZgBAQ&tfu=EgYIARABGAA&client=firefox-b-1-d"]here[/URL]. When I wrote "a lot," I was thinking perhaps a dozen a day. A person will need deep pockets to ride one of these.

[QUOTE=storm5510;566870]I just did a search. There are 28 flights scheduled to depart London for points in the U.S. [U]today[/U]. It shows the carriers. I didn't see any which are strictly freight carriers, like UPS or FedEx. What I looked at is [URL="https://www.google.com/travel/flights/search?tfs=CBwQAhokagcIARIDTEhSEgoyMDIwLTEyLTIxcg0IAhIJL20vMDJfMjg2GiRqDQgCEgkvbS8wMl8yODYSCjIwMjAtMTItMjJyBwgBEgNMSFJwAYIBCwj___________8BQAFIAZgBAQ&tfu=EgYIARABGAA&client=firefox-b-1-d"]here[/URL]. When I wrote "a lot," I was thinking perhaps a dozen a day. A person will need deep pockets to ride one of these.[/QUOTE]On our trip back from STN to our home we chatted with our cab driver who does a lot of airport journeys to LHR and LGW --- or used to anyway. Admittedly not an expert. Nonetheless, he said that essentially all the transatlantic traffic is repatriation flights in each direction. The airlines make the great majority of their money in the freight business, including carrying freight in the passenger cabin according to his witnesses. With very few passengers, more of the hold is available for cargo.

It is up to you as to how much credence you place in that testimony.

Added in edit: checked the prices in the link you provided. They don't seem unreasonable, based on my decade-old experience of transatlantic flights.

Admin asleep at the wheel - again...
 

From [url=https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9075989/At-25-flights-arrive-NYC-London-TODAY-despite-surging-COVID-cases.html]The Daily Mail Online[/url] (my emphasis):
[quote][list][*]Cuomo is called for people arriving in the US from the UK to be tested before arrive or for all travel to be banned from entering the country[*][b]He called it 'reprehensible' that the federal government has done nothing to stop or halt British travel[/b][*]British Airways and Delta have both agreed and will start testing passengers before flights starting from Tuesday [*]Twenty-four flights are scheduled from Heathrow to JFK on Monday and one is also due at Newark [*]Thirty-two countries have already banned travel from the UK over the new strain of COVID-19 there [*]The new strain is believed to be 70% more infectious than what's been seen previously [*]There is no travel in and out of London and travel between Scotland and England is also banned[*]Meanwhile in the US, daily COVID deaths are at their highest ever with close to 3,000 people per day dying[*][b]Trump said nothing about the new variant of Europe's crisis on Monday[/b][/list]By JENNIFER SMITH FOR DAILYMAIL.COM
PUBLISHED: 11:23 EST, 21 December 2020 | UPDATED: 15:36 EST, 21 December 2020

British Airways and Delta say they will require passengers traveling from the UK to New York City to test negative for COVID-19 before they fly after being asked by New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo to take action to stop the new mutant variant of the virus from arriving in the US.

The airlines agreed on Monday as 40 countries around the world banned travel from the UK over a new strain of COVID-19 that has been detected there. The new strain is 70 percent more infectious than what has been seen previously.

[b]Cuomo had asked the federal government to ban all travel from the UK but having had his request fall on deaf ears, he went to the airlines instead.[/b]
<snip>[/quote]

[QUOTE=xilman;566874]...Nonetheless, he said that essentially all the transatlantic traffic is repatriation flights in each direction. The airlines make the great majority of their money in the freight business, including carrying freight in the passenger cabin according to his witnesses...[/QUOTE]

I have seen videos of passenger planes being quickly converted to carry only freight. All the seats and carpet are removed. Work crews can do this in about a half-hour, so it said. Airlines don't like their big investments sitting on the ground. If they're not flying, they're not earning.

More and more international travellers in the UK are getting stuck in transit,
unable to complete their journey or even return to their starting point.
They may be forced to stay where they happen to be right now for Christmas and New Year.

[QUOTE=Nick;566960]More and more international travellers in the UK are getting stuck in transit,
unable to complete their journey or even return to their starting point.
They may be forced to stay where they happen to be right now for Christmas and New Year.[/QUOTE]It will likely happen elsewhere. The new variant is already known to be in DK, NL and ZA.

New strain N439K found different from the N501Y in the UK and different from the "Cluster5" from mink in September/October:

N439K mutation of SARS-CoV-2 may be more infectious and antibody resistant than Wuhan strain
[url]https://www.news-medical.net/news/20201127/N439K-mutation-of-SARS-CoV-2-may-be-more-infectious-and-antibody-resistant-than-Wuhan-strain.aspx[/url]
[url]https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.04.355842v1[/url]
[url]https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.21.392407v1[/url]

And you should also add this:

“ bioRxiv publishes preliminary scientific reports that are not peer-reviewed and, therefore, should not be regarded as conclusive, guide clinical practice/health-related behavior, or treated as established information.”

[QUOTE=ATH;566981]New strain N439K found different from the N501Y in the UK and different from the "Cluster5" from mink in September/October:

N439K mutation of SARS-CoV-2 may be more infectious and antibody resistant than Wuhan strain.[/QUOTE]
Since the new mutant has already widely spread in the London area, Dr. Fauci believed the Covid variant has the high possibility touched down on the USA soils, just in fact, no human eyes have detected the new enemies yet.

[QUOTE]
COVID-19: New strain found in Italy, Denmark, Netherlands, Australia and Gibraltar
...

[/QUOTE]

[url]https://news.sky.com/story/amp/covid-19-new-strain-found-in-denmark-netherlands-and-australia-says-who-12169262[/url]

My 2 cents, this is usually the way viruses eventually die down naturally. But to be safe I hope the world doesn't let its guard down. Let's focus all resources in increasing vaccine production ASAP, globally. It's really a very small planet. The circumference of the earth is only 40000 km. There are people who have walked from pole to pole.

[QUOTE=a1call;567082][url]https://news.sky.com/story/amp/covid-19-new-strain-found-in-denmark-netherlands-and-australia-says-who-12169262[/url]

My 2 cents, this is usually the way viruses eventually die down naturally.[/QUOTE]
The influenza virus mutants have resurfaced up on the yearly basis and have frequently defied the existing vaccines that the influenza herd immunity has never really achieved.

The new Covid virus seemed to mutate slower than the flu virus, but the 2 major Covid mutations have occurred within around 1 full year apart which made this fact more concerned than just to live with it.

Large % of the Americans have already let the guards down and decided to treat it as a more severe type of flu because of the Trump campaigns, many holiday travel plans have proceeded as usual in most of the USA states.

The D614G Covid mutant arrived to Massachusetts only several days after the major outbreaks in Italy back in late Feb 2020.

The Officer Down Memorial Page says there were 148 line-of-duty deaths (LODDs) [url=https://www.odmp.org/search/year/2019]in 2019[/url]. This is for all sworn officers - Police officers, Sheriff's deputies, Corrections Officers, etc.

So far [url=https://www.odmp.org/search/year/2020]this year[/url], it lists 288 LODDs. Of these, 171 are [url=https://www.odmp.org/search?&cause=covid19&from=2020&to=2020&filter=nok9]due to COVID-19[/url]. Of those 171, 53 have been in the [url=https://www.odmp.org/search?state=Texas&cause=covid19&from=2020&to=2020&filter=nok9]State of Texas[/url]. Most of the COVID-19 LODDs have been among those working with detainees or inmates.

The second-leading cause of death is gunfire, at 45 (with an additional 4 due to inadvertent gunfire). This does not include the 18 [url=https://www.odmp.org/search?&from=2020&to=2020&filter=k9]K9 LODDs so far this year[/url]

Remember, viruses are destroyed by temperatures higher than about 60C, so in lieu of leaving hand sanitiser in your fireplace this evening, simply keep your fire burning through the night to cremate Santa. Because your family’s safety is paramount.

[QUOTE=xilman;567294]Remember, viruses are destroyed by temperatures higher than about 60C, so in lieu of leaving hand sanitiser in your fireplace this evening, simply keep your fire burning through the night to cremate Santa. Because your family’s safety is paramount.[/QUOTE]When my siblings and I were kids, our dad decided it was time to show us, once and for all, that there was no Santa Claus. We had a working fireplace, and he built a fire Christmas Eve that did indeed burn through the night. It was still going when we kids got up early Christmas morning.

I wondered as a kid about that fireplace, because the "fire box" seemed (to my mind) to be so oddly shaped. The lower part was trapezoidal, with the upper part of the back slanting toward the damper. The back of the trapezoid was narrower than the front. I learned later that this shape had been a great innovation when it was introduced, known as the "Rumford fireplace."

[url=https://apnews.com/article/travel-air-travel-england-coronavirus-vaccine-airlines-9a01e323a360542b5b919b0c292f8244]The Latest: US requires UK passengers to get negative test[/url][quote]ATLANTA — The United States will require airline passengers from Britain to get a negative COVID-19 test before their flight.

The U.S. is the latest country to announce new travel restrictions because of a new variant of the coronavirus that is spreading in Britain.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says airline passengers from the United Kingdom will have to get negative COVID-19 tests within three days of their trip and provide the results to the airline. The agency says the order will be signed Friday and go into effect on Monday.

The CDC says because of travel restrictions in place since March, air travel to the U.S. from the U.K. has been cut by 90%.[/quote]

C<U<S => S<C

Canada bans flights from UK
UK bans fights from South Africa
Canada does not ban flights from South Africa (AFAIK):smile:

[QUOTE=Dr Sardonicus;567296][url=https://apnews.com/article/travel-air-travel-england-coronavirus-vaccine-airlines-9a01e323a360542b5b919b0c292f8244]The Latest: US requires UK passengers to get negative test[/url][/QUOTE]

It's already here.
To illustrate the scope of the problem consider the report I heard on CBS XMAS evening news: the on-site reporter in Los Angeles said she counted 30 daily direct flights from UK to LAX. Also, LA has other airports such as Burbank's.

[QUOTE=tServo;567373]It's already here.
To illustrate the scope of the problem consider the report I heard on CBS XMAS evening news: the on-site reporter in Los Angeles said she counted 30 daily direct flights from UK to LAX. Also, LA has other airports such as Burbank's.[/QUOTE]It is very likely in 10-50 different countries right now. The lower estimate is quite firm, the upper rather speculative.

I heard Spain earlier today. So, at least US, UK, ES, DK, AU, NL, FR to my knowledge. I hear rumours of SG too but can't confirm.

[QUOTE=tServo;567373]It's already here.
To illustrate the scope of the problem consider the report I heard on CBS XMAS evening news: the on-site reporter in Los Angeles said she counted 30 daily direct flights from UK to LAX. Also, LA has other airports such as Burbank's.[/QUOTE]
I did a search for flights from the small airports around LAX for trips to LHR. None had non-stops available. SFO and Las Vegas would. I did not check San Diego.

[QUOTE=xilman;567375]It is very likely in 10-50 different countries right now. The lower estimate is quite firm, the upper rather speculative.

I heard Spain earlier today. So, at least US, UK, ES, DK, AU, NL, FR to my knowledge. I hear rumours of SG too but can't confirm.[/QUOTE]Add JP, SE and CH to that list.

Ten countries now appear certain.

[QUOTE=xilman;567395]Add JP, SE and CH to that list.

Ten countries now appear certain.[/QUOTE]

If this is about the new variant, it has been found in Canada, so I read earlier.

[QUOTE]
"Since it's been found since September, there's no reason why people coming since September haven't been able to bring that new strain to Canada."
...

The two cases announced today have no travel history, high-risk contacts or known exposure.

"It's a question of if the horse is out of the barn already, and are we closing the doors too late?" St. John said.

[/QUOTE]

[url]https://www.ctvnews.ca/mobile/health/coronavirus/confirmed-cases-of-new-covid-19-variant-in-canada-are-unsurprising-experts-say-1.5245376[/url]

[QUOTE=xilman;567395]Add JP, SE and CH to that list.

Ten countries now appear certain.[/QUOTE]KR reported today. If it is there, a country with among the most effective responses anywhere, you can be certain that it is widespread.

Now so many that I am going to stop keeping count.

[url=https://apnews.com/article/beijing-media-shanghai-social-media-coronavirus-pandemic-7d5614ce26ea23d8efcbd1e402a1cb33]China sentences lawyer who reported on outbreak to 4 years[/url][quote]BEIJING (AP) — A Chinese court on Monday sentenced a former lawyer who reported on the early stage of the coronavirus outbreak to four years in prison on charges of "picking fights and provoking trouble," one of her lawyers said.

The Pudong New Area People's Court in the financial hub of Shanghai gave the sentence to Zhang Zhan following accusations she spread false information, gave interviews to foreign media, disrupted public order and "maliciously manipulated" the outbreak.
<snip>
She was arrested in May amid tough nationwide measures aimed at curbing the outbreak and heavy censorship to deflect criticism of the government's initial response. Zhang reportedly went on a prolonged hunger strike while in detention, prompting authorities to forcibly feed her, and is said to be in poor health.[/quote]

[QUOTE=Dr Sardonicus;567532][URL="https://apnews.com/article/beijing-media-shanghai-social-media-coronavirus-pandemic-7d5614ce26ea23d8efcbd1e402a1cb33"]China sentences lawyer who reported on outbreak to 4 years[/URL][/QUOTE]
Shoot the messenger.

[QUOTE=kladner;567550]Shoot the messenger.[/QUOTE]

I suppose she should consider herself fortunate not to be stood up against a wall and shot. The backlash from the world-at-large would have been rather remarkable.

[QUOTE=storm5510;567552]I suppose she should consider herself fortunate not to be stood up against a wall and shot. The backlash from the world-at-large would have been rather remarkable.[/QUOTE]
Yes, you are correct. My response was formulaic.

[QUOTE=Uncwilly;563877]I have updated the chart for the new season. I added in the last season into the average and Std Dev for the new season. It looks like this peak will pass the height of the summer/post summer peak.[/QUOTE]
Well things are not looking good. Remember these data take several weeks to complete and the value on the y-axis is deaths above the recent mean.
Sept 25th graph: [url]https://www.mersenneforum.org/attachment.php?attachmentid=23412&d=1601072333[/url]
November graph: [url]https://www.mersenneforum.org/attachment.php?attachmentid=23824&d=1605907072[/url]

[QUOTE=Uncwilly;567674]Well things are not looking good. Remember these data take several weeks to complete and the value on the y-axis is deaths above the recent mean.
Sept 25th graph: [url]https://www.mersenneforum.org/attachment.php?attachmentid=23412&d=1601072333[/url]
November graph: [url]https://www.mersenneforum.org/attachment.php?attachmentid=23824&d=1605907072[/url][/QUOTE]I'm a little confused by the graphs. They appear to go from week 40 of 2019 to week 39 of 2020. But that would put the arrow indicating "Election" at week 43 of 2019 (or week 45 in the September graph).

It took me a bit of "blinker" comparison to realize that the minimum near week 38 is over 8000 in the new graph, compared to about 6500 in November's graph. The downward trend predicted at the end of November's graph is now becoming an uptrend.
[indent]And on the whole it was a very good year
For the undertaker.[/indent]-- Carole King, [i]Smackwater Jack[/i]

[QUOTE=Dr Sardonicus;567680]I'm a little confused by the graphs. They appear to go from week 40 of 2019 to week 39 of 2020. But that would put the arrow indicating "Election" at week 43 of 2019 (or week 45 in the September graph).[/QUOTE]Those are week of the year. The lines are different colors for the different seasons. I kept the 40-39 convention from the source of the data. The green line is the actual data from the 2019-2020 flu and pneumonia tracking season. The red line is a prediction based upon the revisions to the data over time. The purple line is for the 2020-2021 season. The orange line is the prediction line for that. (It takes the current data for a week adds 1/2 the difference between the current data and last week's version [for the same week number] and adds 1/4 of the difference from the current data compared to the data published 2 weeks before. As the totals stabilize, the prediction will match the data.) The light blue line is the updated 2 sigma, taking into consideration the week 40-52, 2019 data.

The election happened during the week indicated. It is not a likely cause of any trend. Other issues such as spread at rallies could be. The data from this source has been very laggy, but is raw deaths by week. I have stuck with this data source as it keeps people from complaining that Dr's are just writing COVID on any death certificate. That 25,000 deaths above normal back in the spring is over 10 std dev above the average. Something was killing huge numbers of Americans. If not COVID, what was it?

[QUOTE=Uncwilly;567682]The election happened during the week indicated.[/QUOTE]But not the [i]year[/i] indicated by the data. The data say that is week 43 of 2019. The election took place in 2020.

Reading the data lines as going from late 2019 to late 2020, the graphic makes sense. The change at the right hand side I mentioned before looks ominous.

The lag in finalizing data was used by those denying the reality of COVID-19 earlier this year. There was a posting to social media purporting to show average weekly deaths for the first 16 weeks of the year over the previous umpteen years, versus the data for the first 16 weeks of 2020. There was little difference in the figures. The thing was, they were using [i]preliminary[/i] data for week 16 of 2020. The final data showed a big jump.

There are folks now claiming that only 3% of the COVID deaths being reported by the CDC are real. These folks obviously don't know, and don't care, that the CDC relies on official records - death certificates - compiled by every county in the country.

[QUOTE=Dr Sardonicus;567690]But not the [i]year[/i] indicated by the data. The data say that is week 43 of 2019. The election took place in 2020.

Reading the data lines as going from late 2019 to late 2020, the graphic makes sense. The change at the right hand side I mentioned before looks ominous.[/QUOTE]
The graph is cyclical. The x-axis is week of the year, any year. That is why there is a second line plotted for the 2020-2021 season. That season began at week 40. If I put a marker for New Years, Christmas, or July 4, they should all fall on the same week every year (+/-). 2 different seasons are being plotted on the same x-axis.

BTW, for the first few weeks of 2020, the 2019-2020 data were lower. The low point was below the mean for a while.

[url=https://apnews.com/article/health-monroe-louisiana-coronavirus-pandemic-shreveport-c76bcda2e5abd46a500763ed5a7e3440]Louisiana Congressman-elect Luke Letlow dead from COVID-19[/url][quote]BATON ROUGE, La. (AP) — Luke Letlow, Louisiana's incoming Republican member of the U.S. House, died Tuesday night from complications related to COVID-19 only days before he would have been sworn into office. He was 41.[/quote]

[QUOTE=Uncwilly;567694]The graph is cyclical.[/QUOTE]Actually, it's not. That's what was confusing me. It doesn't bother me now though, since (I think) I see what's going on: The baseline signifies two different things for the two sets of data. Even though that's right in the legend, my mind rebels at such a usage.

For the green, dark blue, and red lines, the baseline (x-axis) is the mean for 2013-2019. But for the purple, orange, and light blue lines, the baseline (x-axis) is the mean for 2013-2020, which is, presumably, [i]different[/i] from the mean for 2013-2019.

That would explain why the left-hand sides of the purple and orange lines are offset from the right side of the green and red lines.

I'm guessing the offset indicates that the deaths in 2020 for weeks 40 and later were higher than the 2013-2019 average.

A couple of different items:

Some of you know my sister works at the local hospital with COVID patients. I received a message from her last night saying she had her first vaccine shot on December 22. The next is January 11. No side effects so far. She indicated this usually comes after the second dose. So, time will tell.

NBC News made a statement that they believe it will take a decade to get enough people vaccinated to control the spread. This seemed really odd to me until I considered a global effort. Many people in third-world countries, like in Africa and Asia, may never be vaccinated.

[QUOTE=storm5510;567739]A couple of different items:

Some of you know my sister works at the local hospital with COVID patients. I received a message from her last night saying she had her first vaccine shot on December 22. The next is January 11. No side effects so far. She indicated this usually comes after the second dose. So, time will tell.

NBC News made a statement that they believe it will take a decade to get enough people vaccinated to control the spread. This seemed really odd to me until I considered a global effort. Many people in third-world countries, like in Africa and Asia, may never be vaccinated.[/QUOTE]

I have heard a statement similar to the NBC news one quoted above from several different news organizations. Usually, they have just said "years to get enough people vaccinated BASED ON THE CURRENT SLOW RATE IN THE U.S."
We were supposed to have had 20 million vaccinations by now but only have 10% of that. In the coming weeks the rate may slow even further since they will be starting to give the second shot instead of doing first-timers.

I heard from my sister again a short time ago. She said the hospital usually has, at least, 12 COVID patients at any given time. She also stated there is one death most days. The vast majority of these are elderly and have pre-existing conditions which puts them at a much higher risk. She specifically mentioned COPD. I take it the outlook for them is quite dim.

[QUOTE=storm5510;567739]A couple of different items:

Some of you know my sister works at the local hospital with COVID patients. I received a message from her last night saying she had her first vaccine shot on December 22. The next is January 11. No side effects so far. She indicated this usually comes after the second dose. So, time will tell.[/quote]Fingers crossed here. And (taps fist on head) knock on wood...

[quote]NBC News made a statement that they believe it will take a decade to get enough people vaccinated to control the spread. This seemed really odd to me until I considered a global effort. Many people in third-world countries, like in Africa and Asia, may never be vaccinated.[/QUOTE]A little googling turned up the 10-year figure for the US in [url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/12/29/covid-19-vaccine-distribution-slow-testing/]This WAPO opinion piece[/url]. The 10-year figure is definitely of the "if present trends continue" variety. (my emphasis)[quote]Opinion by
Leana S. Wen
Contributing columnist
Dec. 29, 2020 at 8:18 p.m. UTC

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported on Monday that 2.1 million doses of coronavirus vaccines have been administered in two weeks. While this might sound like an impressive number, it should set off alarms.

Let's start with the math. Anthony S. Fauci, the government's top infectious-disease doctor, estimates that 80 to 85 percent of Americans need to be vaccinated to reach herd immunity. Both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines require two doses. Eighty percent of the American population is around 264 million people, so we need to administer 528 million doses to achieve herd immunity.

[b]At the current rate[/b], it would take the United States approximately 10 years to reach that level of inoculation. That's right — 10 years. Contrast that with the Trump administration's rosy projections: Earlier this month, Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar predicted that every American will be able to get the vaccine by the second quarter of 2021 (which would be the end of June). The speed needed to do that is 3.5 million vaccinations a day.[/quote]There is, however, more to the piece. In particular, Dr. Wen (yes, she's got an MD) notes[quote]Here's what concerns me most: Instead of identifying barriers to meeting the goal, officials are backtracking on their promises. When states learned they would receive fewer doses than they had been told, the administration said its end-of-year goal was not for vaccinations but vaccine distribution. It also halved the number of doses that would be available to people, from 40 million to 20 million. (Perhaps they hoped no one would notice that their initial pledge was to vaccinate 20 million people, which is 40 million doses, or that President Trump had at one point vowed to have 100 million doses by the end of the year.) And there's more fancy wordplay that's cause for concern: Instead of vaccine distribution, the administration promises "allocation" in December. Actual delivery for millions of doses wouldn't take place until January, to say nothing of the logistics of vaccine administration.[/quote]

[url=https://apnews.com/article/us-news-united-kingdom-coronavirus-pandemic-denver-colorado-72cc2bc0ae61793d0e1849c7fa6167f0]Colorado Guardsman has 1st reported US case of virus variant[/url] (my emphasis)[quote]DENVER (AP) — The first person in the U.S. known to be infected with a new and apparently more contagious variant of the coronavirus was identified Wednesday as a Colorado National Guardsman [b]who had been sent to help out at a nursing home struggling with an outbreak[/b]. And health officials said a second Guard member may have it, too.
<snip>
"The virus is becoming more fit, and we're like a deer in the headlights," warned Dr. Eric Topol, head of Scripps Research Translational Institute. [b]He noted that the U.S. does far less genetic sequencing of virus samples to discover variants than other developed nations do, and thus was probably slow to detect this new mutation.[/b]
<snip>
The confirmed case is in a Colorado man in his 20s [b]who hadn’t been traveling[/b], officials said. He has mild symptoms and is isolating at his home near Denver, while the person with the suspected case is isolating at a Colorado hotel while further genetic analysis is done on his sample, officials said.[/quote]Huh. I wonder whether the outbreak in the nursing home was the new strain.

I thought "Operation Warp Speed" was about COVID vaccine, but I guess it's actually about getting people [i]infected[/i] as quickly as possible. The vaccination program, like a lot of this Admin's efforts, is "Operation Clusterf:censored:k."

[url=https://apnews.com/article/us-news-wisconsin-coronavirus-pandemic-ae9778c182041f62f8dfa45542644481]Wisconsin health system: Worker deliberately spoiled vaccine[/url][quote]GRAFTON, Wis. (AP) — A Wisconsin health system said Wednesday that 500 doses of coronavirus vaccine that had to be discarded after they were left unrefrigerated now appear to have been deliberately spoiled by an employee.
<snip>
In a statement late Wednesday, Aurora said the employee involved "today acknowledged that they intentionally removed the vaccine from refrigeration."

Aurora’s statement said they had fired the employee and referred the matter to authorities for further investigation.
<snip>[/quote]

My sister had to go to a regional hospital in Jeffersonville, IN, to get her first dose. This is across the Ohio River from Louisville, KY, for those not familiar with the geography. I have driven this before. On a good day, it is an hour and a quarter drive to get there. This absolutely will not fly with the general population here. They will expect this to be done at the local hospital, and I see no reason why it cannot be done. :exclaim:

As if 2020 wasn't bad enough already...
 

I just got an Email from my uncle. He and his wife (my aunt), both in their nineties, are living together in an assisted-living facility.

They have both been struggling with coughs and loss of appetite since Christmas. He has a low-grade fever.

Both were tested for COVID-19. His test came back positive, hers negative.

Their conditions haven't changed much since Monday.

[QUOTE=Dr Sardonicus;567870]I just got an Email from my uncle. He and his wife (my aunt), both in their nineties, are living together in an assisted-living facility.

They have both been struggling with coughs and loss of appetite since Christmas. He has a low-grade fever.

Both were tested for COVID-19. His test came back positive, hers negative.

Their conditions haven't changed much since Monday.[/QUOTE]

If there is noone nearby physically who can act as an advocate and you want to help, you must resolve to be their remote advocate. Even if someone is nearby, touch base with them to get more details. Most people are quite timid when dealing with medical staff.
After working at a hospital for 20 years and having both my parents die in an assisted-care living facility you may want to check:

(1) what is their current treatment regime?
(2) has a doctor been consulted to see if they should go to a hospital ?
(3) don't take any crap from any petty martinets that "you are asking for confidential information" ( yes, I know all about HIPPA ).
(4) you may want to have your aunt or uncle sign a paper giving you HIPPA rights which may grease the wheels when dealing with any staff,
(5) If you feel any medical staff is being evasive or blowing smoke up your butt, ask to speak with their supervisor.
(6) Write down names so you can keep the cast of characters straight.
(7) If the staff is being totally obnoxious ( Big Nurse ), become a prick.

My brother and I battled medical staff nearly every day while my parents were horribly ill.

Good luck.

[QUOTE=tServo;567878]If there is noone nearby physically who can act as an advocate and you want to help,
<snip>[/QUOTE]Thanks for all the info. One never knows what one will need to know.

Not to worry, though - they have immediate family all over this.

Followup to [url=https://www.mersenneforum.org/showpost.php?p=567821&postcount=1213]this post[/url] about the deliberately spoiled vaccine: [url=https://apnews.com/article/us-news-milwaukee-wisconsin-coronavirus-pandemic-3d6db7b839be9276734088cb9d93a52d]Wisconsin hospital worker arrested for spoiled vaccine doses[/url] (my emphasis) [quote]MADISON, Wis. (AP) — Authorities arrested a suburban Milwaukee [b]pharmacist[/b] Thursday suspected of deliberately ruining hundreds of doses of coronavirus vaccine by removing them from refrigeration for two nights.
<snip>
Police in Grafton, about 20 miles (32 kilometers) north of Milwaukee, said the Advocate Aurora Health [b]pharmacist[/b] was arrested on suspicion of reckless endangerment, adulterating a prescription drug and criminal damage to property, all felonies. The [b]pharmacist[/b] has been fired and police said in a news release that he was in jail. Police did not identify the [b]pharmacist[/b], saying he has not yet been formally charged.

His motive remains unclear. Police said that detectives believe he knew the spoiled doses would be useless and people who received them would mistakenly think they'd been vaccinated when they hadn't.[/quote]Being a real-deal [i]pharmacist[/i] in the US is no small achievement. It takes a Doctor of Pharmacy degree and years of professional pharmacy study. If the suspect was indeed a pharmacist, that is over.

[QUOTE=Dr Sardonicus;567905]...It takes a Doctor of Pharmacy degree and years of professional pharmacy study. If the suspect was indeed a pharmacist, that is over.[/QUOTE]

I was told this is one of the most difficult degrees to obtain. Strangely enough, a DVM (veterinarian) is also extremely difficult. More so than a family practice physician. Unlike MD's, vets deal with many animal types, and not just one. They are held to very high standards as MD's are.

Sorry for drifting off-topic...

[url=https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2021/01/04/the-plague-year]The Plague Year. The mistakes and the struggles behind America’s coronavirus tragedy[/url]

[QUOTE=retina;567931][url=https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2021/01/04/the-plague-year]The Plague Year. The mistakes and the struggles behind America’s coronavirus tragedy[/url][/QUOTE]Are you kidding me? An article about the things the good ol' USA got [i]right[/i] dealing with COVID-19 might be of reasonable length. An article about the [i]mistakes[/i] would take the [i]whole issue![/i]

Oh, wait...

[URL="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55507012"]Covid-19: New variant 'raises R number by up to 0.7'[/URL]

[quote]The Imperial College study suggests transmission of the new variant tripled during England's November lockdown while the previous version was reduced by a third.

Cases of Covid-19 have begun to increase rapidly during the second spike, and the number of cases recorded in a single day reached a new high on Thursday.
[/quote]

[quote]"In simpler terms, unless we do something different the new virus strain is going to continue to spread, more infections, more hospitalisations and more deaths."[/QUOTE]

I heard on the radio this morning that Los Angeles County, CA, will start doing triage on all incoming COVID-19 cases. Those with the best chances of survival will be treated. The rest will not. Because of the county's medical establishment being swamped, they will be choosing who lives, and who dies. I fear this will be the harsh reality of 2021.

[I]Note: I do not know how valid all of this is. Someone knowing where to look can verify. [/I]

[QUOTE=storm5510;567956]I heard on the radio this morning that Los Angeles County, CA, will start doing triage on all incoming COVID-19 cases. Those with the best chances of survival will be treated. The rest will not. Because of the county's medical establishment being swamped, they will be choosing who lives, and who dies. I fear this will be the harsh reality of 2021.

[I]Note: I do not know how valid all of this is. Someone knowing where to look can verify. [/I][/QUOTE]I have no idea how accurate the radio report may be but I do know what triage means.

Those with best rate of survival in the absence of medical treatment will not be treated.

Of the remainder, those with the best rate of survival given medical treatment will be treated.

The remainder will not.

[google google] (looks at LA Times stories from [url=https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-12-30/paramedics-patients-stay-home-hospitals-covid-19]December 30[/url] and [url=https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-12-19/los-angeles-county-coronavirus-hospitalization-surge-rationing]December 19[/url], and this December 20 [url=https://www.npr.org/2020/12/20/948523206/as-covid-19-cases-soar-overwhelmed-california-hospitals-worry-about-rationing-ca]NPR story[/url])

One thing that [i]is[/i] happening is, hospitals are adopting "crisis care" or "crisis standard of care" practices, such as declining to transport COVID patients who aren't severely ill.

No triage yet, as far as I can tell, but some CA hospitals are planning for it "just in case."

The categories of triage I've heard from previous news reports of mass casualty scenes (using red, yellow, green, white, and black tags respectively) are
[list]IMMEDIATE - Those who cannot survive without immediate treatment but who have a chance of survival.[*]OBSERVATION - Those who require observation (and possible later re-triage). Their condition is stable for the moment and, they are not in immediate danger of death. These victims will still need hospital care and would be treated immediately under normal circumstances.[*]WAIT - The "walking wounded" who will need medical care at some point, after more critical injuries have been treated.[*]DISMISS - Those with minor injuries for whom a doctor's care is not required.[*]EXPECTANT - The deceased and those whose injuries are so extensive that they will not be able to survive given the care that is available.[/list]The START (Simple Triage And Rapid Treatment) system has four categories and also uses colored tags: Red - immediate; Yellow - delayed; Green - minor; Black - deceased

Curiously, my old Merriam-Webster Unabridged does not mention medical triage. The word is in there, but with a different meaning. The etymology included with definitions is one reason I bought the dictionary when the local branch of the public library retired it from its long service on a lectern.[quote][b]tri'age[/b], [i]n.[/i] [F., a culling, selecting, sifting, fr. [i]trier[/i], to pick out. See TRY.] The process of grading marketable produce; specif., the lowest grade of coffee berries, consisting of broken material. [i]Eng.[/i][/quote]

In Quebec they say they will start deciding who gets medical care and who doesn't when the ICU use reaches 200% which they expect to be shortly. I also heard in the news (can't recall location) that there is so much load on oxygen pipes that pressure is insufficient and some hospitals have requested delivery of mobile oxygen units.

[QUOTE=storm5510;567956]I heard on the radio this morning that Los Angeles County, CA, will start doing triage on all incoming COVID-19 cases.[/QUOTE]It is very bad. I know people that work in hospitals in the LA county area.
Here is what one told me on 12/22:
[QUOTE]We are moving to being stuck with more and more Covid cases in the emergency department. We have already been using tents for ambulatory/minor COVID case)[/QUOTE]When I mentioned about not giving ventilators to the "95 year old little old ladies", they did not try to correct me.

Labour and delivery are happening, as is chemo, dialysis, and other on going treatments.
Case load (number of patients per nurse) for ICU nurses is at or above 50% of what is normally considered the max acceptable. Retired nurses and other medical staff are being begged to come to work. Nursing students are being given work during their clinical training beyond what was the norm before.
[QUOTE=Dr Sardonicus;567962][google google] (looks at LA Times stories from)

One thing that [i]is[/i] happening is, hospitals are adopting "crisis care" or "crisis standard of care" practices, such as declining to transport COVID patients who aren't severely ill.

No triage yet, as far as I can tell, but some CA hospitals are planning for it "just in case."[/quote]One of my other sources in the area said that it is very bad. They were (days ago) already delivering a different standard of care. The idea of 'heroic' treatment (using lots of effort to save a single patient) is not happening.

In the last 90 minutes I talked with a 3rd individual that works at a 3rd major hospital. They have been using tents for 2 weeks or more already. (It has been about 2 weeks since the county went to ZERO available ICU beds). They told me that at this 600+ bed facility, only 1 floor of 1 wing was for non-COVID patients. All pediatric beds are now COVID beds, the post op ward is now COVID, [B]all[/B] surgeries that [B]can[/B] be postponed are. The large auditorium is now all COVID treatment. Nursing staff are breaking down all the time.

[quote]The categories of triage I've heard from previous news reports of mass casualty scenes (using red, yellow, green, white, and black tags respectively) are[/QUOTE]
[QUOTE=xilman;567960]I have no idea how accurate the radio report may be but I do know what triage means.

Those with best rate of survival in the absence of medical treatment will not be treated.

Of the remainder, those with the best rate of survival given medical treatment will be treated.

The remainder will not.[/QUOTE]I have been trained in disaster field response. In the field those 3 categories are the rough sorts. Someone that needs help eventually. Those that a level of care that is available will save their life/prevent further irreversible loss. Those who would require more help than is available, or the care for them would cost others their lives. CPR might be used sparingly in such a situation (because those revived might continue to require care, which would require others not to get care), if you are 30 or under you might get it, over 60, not likely.

The level at care in the hospitals in the Los Angeles area for those that are seriously ill with COVID is being managed differently than before. People will/have died for lack of available resources. It will get worse for at least 2 weeks to 2 months before it plateaus.

I just got a snapchat from someone working at one of those hospitals: They are working outdoors today. I asked if the term triage is appropriate to be used about current level of care. They confirmed that to be correct.

[QUOTE=Uncwilly;567967]The level at care in the hospitals in the Los Angeles area for those that are seriously ill with COVID is being managed differently than before. People will/have died for lack of available resources. It will get worse for at least 2 weeks to 2 months before it plateaus.[/QUOTE]These [url=http://healthimpact.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/California-SARS-CoV-2-Crisis-Care-Guidelines-June-8-2020_rs.pdf]June 2020 California Department of Public health guidelines[/url] (complete with cover letter) entitled[quote][size=4][b][color=navy]California SARS-CoV-2
Pandemic Crisis Care
Guidelines[/color][/b][/size][/quote]include the following:

[quote]Surge capacity is described across a spectrum of three categories (Figure 1):[list]Conventional: Usual resources and level of care provided. For example, during a surge in patients, maximizing bed occupancy and calling in additional staff to assist.[*]Contingency: Provision of functionally equivalent care that may incur a small risk to patients. Care provided is adapted from usual practices. For example, boarding critical care patients in post-anesthesia care areas using less traditional, but appropriate resources.[*]Crisis: Disaster strategies used when demand forces choices that pose a significant risk to patients but is the best that can be offered under the circumstances. For example, cot-based care, severe staffing restrictions, or restrictions on use of certain medications or other resources.[/list][/quote]I transcribed the text imaged in Figure 1:[quote][color=green]Conventional[/color]:[list][b]Space[/b] - usual beds fully utilized[*][b]Staff[/b] - usual staff, including called in off duty[*][b]Supplies[/b] - Usual or cache/stockpiled[*][b]Level of care[/b] - usual care[/list][i][color=orange]Contingency[/color]:[/i][list][b]Space[/b] - PACU or pre-op beds used. Singles conversion to doubles[*][b]Staff[/b] - Longer shifts, different staff configurations and supervision[*][b]Supplies[/b] - Conserve, adapt, substitute, re-use supplies[*][b]Level of care[/b] - Functionally equivalent care, but may be delayed[/list][i][b][color=red]Crisis[/color]:[/b][/i][list][b]Space[/b] - cot-based care, ICU-level care in stepdown or monitored units[*][b]Staff[/b] - significant changes in nursing and MD ratios, major changes in clinical responsibilities[*][b]Supplies[/b] - Rationing of select supplies and therapies[*][b]Level of care[/b] - Crisis care, may have to triage medical care and ventilators[/list][/quote]

I just read an article explaining that rural and small town health professionals are leaving in droves because the communities they live in and serve have turned against them, They are getting death threats and being socially ostracized for doing such horrible things as wearing masks and practicing social distancing and advocating that the general public do the same.

[URL="https://www.npr.org/2020/12/28/950861977/toxic-individualism-pandemic-politics-driving-health-care-workers-from-small-tow"]https://www.npr.org/2020/12/28/950861977/toxic-individualism-pandemic-politics-driving-health-care-workers-from-small-tow[/URL]

This L.A. Times story is not encouraging. [url=https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-12-31/healthcare-workers-refuse-covid-19-vaccine-access]Some healthcare workers refuse to take COVID-19 vaccine, even with priority access[/url][quote]They are frontline workers with top-priority access to the COVID-19 vaccine, but they are refusing to take it.

At St. Elizabeth Community Hospital in Tehama County, fewer than half of the 700 hospital workers eligible for the vaccine were willing to take the shot when it was first offered. At Providence Holy Cross Medical Center in Mission Hills, one in five frontline nurses and doctors have declined the shot. Roughly 20% to 40% of L.A. County's frontline workers who were offered the vaccine did the same, according to county public health officials.

So many frontline workers in Riverside County have refused the vaccine — an estimated 50% — that hospital and public officials met to strategize how best to distribute the unused doses, Public Health Director Kim Saruwatari said.
<snip>[/quote]

I believe I opened a can of worms above. Perhaps this was a can which needed to be opened. What happens in L.A. County may be duplicated in smaller areas as time passes.

Would it be too harsh to say that any healthcare worker who refuses the vaccine would forfeit their job? At my last doctor visit, the nurse to took my vitals and preliminary information clearly stated that she would [U]not[/U] take it, and neither would her children. Do these people fear the vaccine because it was developed so rapidly? It may be they have a sit-back-and-wait mentality. They want to see how it affects others before they take it themselves.

There is something I have thought about, but not seen addressed: Is it possible for a person to be a carrier and never become ill?

[QUOTE=storm5510;568131]Do these people fear the vaccine because it was developed so rapidly? It may be they have a sit-back-and-wait mentality. They want to see how it affects others before they take it themselves.[/QUOTE]You would need to ask each person to know their thoughts. But I suspect it more about distrust. They are more willing to trust random bats and pangolins giving them random viruses, than to trust directed research based upon scientific knowledge to give them antidotes.[QUOTE=storm5510;568131]There is something I have thought about, but not seen addressed: Is it possible for a person to be a carrier and never become ill?[/QUOTE]Of course. Happens all the time. It's been happening since forever.

[QUOTE=storm5510;568131]There is something I have thought about, but not seen addressed: Is it possible for a person to be a carrier and never become ill?[/QUOTE]
Sure. That is [U]mainly[/U] the way most of infectious diseases (covid including) are transmitted. If you see a sick guy coughing his lungs out in the middle of the street, you will avoid him instinctively. Is the one who seems healthy who infects you.


(edit, sorry, page change, didn't see retina's reply)

[QUOTE=Dr Sardonicus;568119]This L.A. Times story is not encouraging. [url=https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-12-31/healthcare-workers-refuse-covid-19-vaccine-access]Some healthcare workers refuse to take COVID-19 vaccine, even with priority access[/url][/QUOTE]

With regards to the workers reasons, you guys are missing the obvious that popped out at me having been raised in that culture.
Just look at the hospital's names: SAINT Elizabeth HOLY CROSS hospital.

[QUOTE=tServo;568182]With regards to the workers reasons, you guys are missing the obvious that popped out at me having been raised in that culture.
Just look at the hospital's names: SAINT Elizabeth HOLY CROSS hospital.[/QUOTE]
The workers are not all nuns. I know a healthcare professional that has worked at hospitals associated with 2 different religions. Neither institution required that the workers believed the tenants of that faith. And each of those institutions were very much pro vaccination with regards to their staff.

[QUOTE=tServo;568182]With regards to the workers reasons, you guys are missing the obvious that popped out at me having been raised in that culture.
Just look at the hospital's names: SAINT Elizabeth HOLY CROSS hospital.[/QUOTE]If you read the article, you'll see that the reluctance to get vaccinated is individual, not institutional. (At the risk of belaboring the obvious, if there were [i]institutional[/i] opposition by a hospital's Admin to getting vaccinated, the rate of vaccination among its workers would be [i]zero[/i].)

One reason for reluctance to get the vaccine is that people see it as an unknown quantity. One individual was six months pregnant, and didn't know whether the vaccine was safe for pregnant women. Another reason is that many health care workers have worked for months with COVID-19 patients and haven't gotten sick, so think the likelihood their luck will continue to hold outweighs the possible risk of the new vaccine.

The article also points out that the name "Operation Warp Speed" for the development effort has given the unfortunate impression that the vaccines have been rushed into service.

The article also indicates that reluctance among health care workers to get the vaccine is country-wide.

Many hospitals with "Saint" names are affiliated with Catholicism. I am not aware of any Catholic doctrine or dogma opposing vaccination.

There [i]are[/i] some religious objections to vaccinations, but I am not aware of any denominations or sects with a doctrinal or dogmatic opposition to vaccinations or injections being in charge of a public hospital.

[QUOTE=Dr Sardonicus;568199]Many hospitals with "Saint" names are affiliated with Catholicism. I am not aware of any Catholic doctrine or dogma opposing vaccination..[/QUOTE]Short of an ex cathedra statement, this is as good as you can hope for.
[URL="https://www.npr.org/2020/12/25/950297591/in-christmas-message-pope-francis-urges-coronavirus-vaccines-for-all"]https://www.npr.org/2020/12/25/950297591/in-christmas-message-pope-francis-urges-coronavirus-vaccines-for-all [/URL]

[QUOTE=Dr Sardonicus;568199]If you read the article, you'll see that the reluctance to get vaccinated is individual, not institutional. (At the risk of belaboring the obvious, if there were [i]institutional[/i] opposition by a hospital's Admin to getting vaccinated, the rate of vaccination among its workers would be [i]zero[/i].)

One reason for reluctance to get the vaccine is that people see it as an unknown quantity. One individual was six months pregnant, and didn't know whether the vaccine was safe for pregnant women. Another reason is that many health care workers have worked for months with COVID-19 patients and haven't gotten sick, so think the likelihood their luck will continue to hold outweighs the possible risk of the new vaccine.

The article also points out that the name "Operation Warp Speed" for the development effort has given the unfortunate impression that the vaccines have been rushed into service.

The article also indicates that reluctance among health care workers to get the vaccine is country-wide.

Many hospitals with "Saint" names are affiliated with Catholicism. I am not aware of any Catholic doctrine or dogma opposing vaccination.

There [i]are[/i] some religious objections to vaccinations, but I am not aware of any denominations or sects with a doctrinal or dogmatic opposition to vaccinations or injections being in charge of a public hospital.[/QUOTE]

Your response and Uncwilly's clearly show that my statement was vague. I agree with the reasons Dr. S. stated. I did not want to imply that nuns nor the admin nor any official doctrine had anything to do with this. I should have stated that conservative nurses tend to gravitate toward Catholic hospitals just as evangelical protestant nurses do. It is simply a matter of "birds of a feather" i.e. where does one feel most comfortable. A higher percentage of them may eschew vaccines because of their political beliefs.

BTW, there ARE in my area Catholic schools and Protestant evangelical ones that make all the employees sign a statement professing their faith etc etc etc.
I was shocked to learn this as I thought that was illegal but with the Robert's court recent rulings I may be out-of-date.

[QUOTE=Dr Sardonicus;568199]I am not aware of any Catholic doctrine or dogma opposing vaccination.[/QUOTE]
Well, I guess the almighty god, when he wrote the bible, didn't have a freaking idea about things the progress brings.

@LaurV
If you look at the Bible's principles about dealing with 'leprosy' (which covered a number of different thing including mold in houses), you will see germ theory in action.
There was face/mouth coverings, quarantines, and social distancing. The Catholic Church is a group with particular vested interests and doesn't always have their beliefs in line with what the Bible actually says.

[url=https://apnews.com/article/wisconsin-pharmacist-steven-brandenburg-ac00faee3cf10a9558665d472123b96c]Prosecutor: Wisconsin pharmacist thought vaccine was unsafe[/url][quote]MADISON, Wis. (AP) — A Wisconsin pharmacist convinced the world was "crashing down" told police he tried to ruin hundreds of doses of coronavirus vaccine because he believed the shots would mutate people's DNA, according to court documents released Monday.

Police in Grafton, about 20 miles (32 kilometers) north of Milwaukee, arrested Advocate Aurora Health pharmacist Steven Brandenburg last week following an investigation into the 57 spoiled vials of the Moderna vaccine, which officials say contained enough doses to inoculate more than 500 people. Charges are pending.

"He'd formed this belief they were unsafe," Ozaukee County District Attorney Adam Gerol said during a virtual hearing. He added that Brandenburg was upset because he and his wife are divorcing, and an Aurora employee said Brandenburg had taken a gun to work twice.

A detective wrote in a probable cause statement that Brandenburg, 46, is an admitted conspiracy theorist and that he told investigators he intentionally tried to ruin the vaccine because it could hurt people by changing their DNA.
<snip>[/quote]I'd say we have more to fear from anti-vaxxers and conspiratorialists, than from the vaccine.

So here is how bad it is in the Los Angeles area:
[URL="https://abc7.com/9358924/"]https://abc7.com/9358924/ [/URL]
[QUOTE]a new directive now orders first responders in the field to stop bringing patients to the hospital if their heart stops beating, like in the event of a cardiac arrest. Ambulances are being told not to transport trauma patients - victims of heart attacks, gunshot wounds, car crashes - to the hospital if they can't be resuscitated in the field.
...
Hospitals are running out of oxygen.
[/QUOTE]
[QUOTE]Patients are being treated based upon acuity, meaning the triage systems are working as best they can. We're trying to encourage people to not call 911 unless they really need to. So if they just have flu symptoms, which is likely due to COVID, but they're not experiencing severe chest pain, they're not experiencing shortness of breath, they're able to keep down liquids, then the best treatment is to call your doctor or stay home. Not call 911 and not go to emergency department.[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=Uncwilly;568505]So here is how bad it is in the Los Angeles area:
[URL="https://abc7.com/9358924/"]https://abc7.com/9358924/ [/URL][/QUOTE]A bit of digging turned up some actual directives. Grim stuff. [url=http://file.lacounty.gov/SDSInter/dhs/1100458_Directive_6revTransportofTraumaticandNontraumaticCardiacArrest.pdf]EMS Transport of Patients in Traumatic and Nontraumatic Cardiac Arrest[/url] (image, can't copy text) and

[url=http://file.lacounty.gov/SDSInter/dhs/1101027_855-HospitalEMSSurge.pdf]HOSPITAL EMS SURGE ASSISTANCE PLAN: COVID-19 RESPONSE[/url]. ([color=red]DRAFT[/color])

[quote]PURPOSE: To manage 9-1-1 ambulance resources during periods of prolonged ambulance patient offload delays at hospital emergency department (EDs) by coordinating resources through a regional EMS/Fire Department Response Framework: Hospital EMS Surge Assistance Plan.
<snip>
J. Patients arriving via ambulance shall be categorized as:

a. Morgue (black) – Patients arriving at the hospital in cardiac arrest shall be immediately assessed for prognosis and futility of effort. If futility is determined, resuscitation shall be terminated. Morgue patients shall be received by the hospital and captured in the hospital eMR. The decedent shall not be transferred to an ED treatment station but rather transported to the hospital morgue in order to release the ambulance crew back into service.

b. Immediate (red) – These are patients who exhibit severe respiratory, circulatory or neurological symptoms that would likely result in significant morbidity or mortality if not addressed within 1 hour. These patients require rapid assessment and medical intervention. Patients in this category shall be given priority to offload to an ED treatment station when available. In the absence of an available ED treatment station, these patients shall be offloaded in the ARS or assigned an ambulance parking space closest to the hospital EMS Triage Officer. In this situation, the ambulance back doors should remain open so patients may be directly observed. Immediate patients shall further be categorized to ensure that the most gravely ill is assigned a place closest to the ED ambulance entrance for transport into the ED as soon as directed by the hospital EMS Triage Officer or the AREP may notifiy the MAC and the EMS Agency MOD for possible rerouting.

c. Delayed (yellow) – These are patients who have a potentially serious medical or surgical condition but who are stable to wait until resources are not encumbered. These patients will typically require a gurney upon arrival at the hospital. Delayed patients shall be offloaded to stretcher or cots in the ARS. The Hospital EMS Triage Office shall ensure that delayed patients are captured in the hospital’s eMR. Hospital personnel or EMS Providers shall be assigned to monitor these patients. EMTs and/or paramedics may be assigned to monitor up to 4 patients.

d. Minor (green) – These are patients who are alert and oriented, able to sit in a chair, and medically stable. These patients shall be taken to the ED waiting room as per Directive #4 EMS Offload of ALS and BLS Patients to The Emergency Department Waiting Room dated 12-23-20. The Hospital EMS Triage Officer shall ensure these patients are captured in the hospital’s eMR.[/quote]

An update on [url=https://www.mersenneforum.org/showpost.php?p=567870&postcount=1215]this post[/url]:

I am pleased - [i]very[/i] pleased, in fact - to inform one and all that my aunt and uncle are now feeling well, with temperatures back down to normal, after he (and most likely she) had been infected with COVID-19.

[QUOTE=Dr Sardonicus;568567]...I am pleased - [I]very[/I] pleased, in fact - to inform one and all that my aunt and uncle are now feeling well, with temperatures back down to normal, after he (and most likely she) had been infected with COVID-19.[/QUOTE]

Excellent! :smile:

The county where I live in Indiana is now on a Red Advisory Level based on county metrics. I am not sure exactly what this is. It does not sound good. :ermm:

[QUOTE=storm5510;568576]<snip>
The county where I live in Indiana is now on a Red Advisory Level based on county metrics. I am not sure exactly what this is. It does not sound good. :ermm:[/QUOTE]Your hearing is excellent!

The Indiana Department of Health's [url=https://www.coronavirus.in.gov/map/CountyScoringMapDetails.pdf]Color-coded County Maps[/url] page gives the skinny. The color coding uses two metrics. The [color=red]Red[/color] zone is:

7-Day Positivity Rate (All Tests) [color=red]15% or greater[/color]


Weekly Cases Per 100,000 Residents [color=red]200 or more new cases[/color]

[QUOTE=Dr Sardonicus;568567]An update on [URL="https://www.mersenneforum.org/showpost.php?p=567870&postcount=1215"]this post[/URL]:

I am pleased - [I]very[/I] pleased, in fact - to inform one and all that my aunt and uncle are now feeling well, with temperatures back down to normal, after he (and most likely she) had been infected with COVID-19.[/QUOTE]
Wonderful news! :smile:

I got a personal report from a healthcare worker in the Los Angeles area. Routinely they have to call the coroner's office after any death, so that the coroner's office can hear the basic facts and decide to investigate or not. This is required to be done by an RN or higher. This is normally a very quick process. In the last day or 2 there have been cases where the RN had to wait on hold for 20 minutes just to speak to someone. So, that is 20 extra minutes out of their time away from patients. In a larger hospital that could add up to a full time position equivalent.

[QUOTE=Uncwilly;568584]I got a personal report from a healthcare worker in the Los Angeles area. Routinely they have to call the coroner's office after any death, so that the coroner's office can hear the basic facts and decide to investigate or not. This is required to be done by an RN or higher. This is normally a very quick process. In the last day or 2 there have been cases where the RN had to wait on hold for 20 minutes just to speak to someone. So, that is 20 extra minutes out of their time away from patients. In a larger hospital that could add up to a full time position equivalent.[/QUOTE]

I read a short time ago first responders in L.A. County have been instructed [U]not[/U] to bring in anyone whose survival chance are poor. As [I]Uncwilly[/I] indicated above, this is about making the best use of their time.

[QUOTE=storm5510;568608]I read a short time ago first responders in L.A. County have been instructed [U]not[/U] to bring in anyone whose survival chance are poor.[/QUOTE]
You mean this?
[QUOTE=Uncwilly;568505]So here is how bad it is in the Los Angeles area:
[URL="https://abc7.com/9358924/"]https://abc7.com/9358924/ [/URL][/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=storm5510;568608]I read a short time ago first responders in L.A. County have been instructed [U]not[/U] to bring in anyone whose survival chance are poor. As [I]Uncwilly[/I] indicated above, this is about making the best use of their time.[/QUOTE]As posted [url=https://www.mersenneforum.org/showpost.php?p=568509&postcount=1244]here[/url], a pdf image of the actual directive "EMS Transport of Patients in Traumatic and Nontraumatic Cardiac Arrest" may be seen [url=http://file.lacounty.gov/SDSInter/dhs/1100458_Directive_6revTransportofTraumaticandNontraumaticCardiacArrest.pdf]here[/url].

[QUOTE=Dr Sardonicus;568567] my aunt and uncle are now feeling well[/QUOTE]
:tu: Way to go! Good news!

[URL="https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2021/01/19/958354466/cremation-limits-lifted-in-la-due-to-backlog-as-covid-19-deaths-skyrocket"]https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2021/01/19/958354466/cremation-limits-lifted-in-la-due-to-backlog-as-covid-19-deaths-skyrocket [/URL]

[QUOTE]"The current rate of death is more than double that of pre-pandemic years, leading to hospitals, funeral homes, and crematoriums exceeding capacity without the ability to process the backlog of cases," officials said.[/QUOTE]
[QUOTE]As of Jan. 15, more than 2,700 bodies were being stored at hospitals and the coroner's office, according to the order. It adds that the county's 28 crematoriums have the "resources and capability" to perform more cremations than regulatory limits allow.[/QUOTE]
[QUOTE]The South Coast Air Quality Management District said in a press release Sunday that it is suspending certain permit conditions for crematoriums at the request of the county's medical-examiner coroner and public health department. Crematorium permits typically carry limits based on potential air quality impacts, but can be suspended during a state of emergency.[/QUOTE]

Tonight, as part of our battle against Covid, the Netherlands is under curfew,
something we have not had since the occupation by the nazis.

[QUOTE=Nick;569957]Tonight, as part of our battle against Covid, the Netherlands is under curfew,
something we have not had since the occupation by the nazis.[/QUOTE]At least the UK has escaped that punishment. Though the pubs are still closed :sad:

[url=https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality]Johns Hopkins[/url] (last updated 2021-01-24 3AM EST) gave the figure of 417,399 deaths in the USA from COVID-19.

I think it's reasonably likely the next update will top the highest figure for US military and civilian deaths in World War II I've run into so far, which is 418,500.

[b]EDIT:[/b] As of the update for 2021-01-25 3AM EST, Johns Hopkins lists 419,208 COVID-19 deaths in the United States.

[QUOTE=Nick;569957]Tonight, as part of our battle against Covid, the Netherlands is under curfew,
something we have not had since the occupation by the nazis.[/QUOTE]...[url=https://apnews.com/article/international-news-riots-mark-rutte-netherlands-coronavirus-pandemic-c46c1435fbbedba0f39e63bc1f2a1894]And the crowd gets ugly[/url]...[quote]THE HAGUE, Netherlands (AP) — Dutch police took to the streets of towns and cities across the Netherlands on Monday night in an attempt to prevent a repeat of rioting the previous night that saw clashes linked to the country's coronavirus curfew. Before the curfew came into force, two cities reported unrest.

Police in the port city of Rotterdam reported youths took to a street "seeking a confrontation with police." Riot officers attempted to break up the violence and made a number of arrests, police tweeted. National broadcaster NOS reported that police used a water cannon. In the southern town of Geleen, police tweeted that youths in the downtown area were throwing fireworks.

Dutch media reported calls on social media for further violent protests even as the country struggles to contain new coronavirus infections, hospitalizations and deaths.

Police in the southern town of Goes and the North Holland province said they people on suspicion of using social media to call for rioting.

"It is unacceptable," Prime Minister Mark Rutte said. "This has nothing to do with protesting, this is criminal violence and that's how we'll treat it."

Worst hit during the rioting Sunday was the southern city of Eindhoven, where police clashed with hundreds of rioters who torched a car, threw rocks and fireworks at officers, smashed windows and looted a supermarket at its railway station.
<snip>[/quote]

[QUOTE=Dr Sardonicus;570056][url=https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality]Johns Hopkins[/url] (last updated 2021-01-24 3AM EST) gave the figure of 417,399 deaths in the USA from COVID-19.

I think it's reasonably likely the next update will top the highest figure for US military and civilian deaths in World War II I've run into so far, which is 418,500.

[b]EDIT:[/b] As of the update for 2021-01-25 3AM EST, Johns Hopkins lists 419,208 COVID-19 deaths in the United States.[/QUOTE]

And also, we were at war for 45 months and have been recording Covid deaths for just shy of 12 months.

The greatest number of deaths in the US from any outbreak of an epidemic disease (high incidence, rapid spread) seems to be the estimated 675,000 from the "Spanish flu" pandemic of 1917-1918. The US population was around 100 million at the time, making for an easy rough estimate of 675 deaths per 100,000 in the US.

The estimated "case fatality rate" for Spanish flu was 2.5%. For COVID-19 it was around 3% in the US in early days and has slowly decreased to around 1.7% today. (Obviously the "recent" case-fatality rate has to be somewhat lower, but I don't know by how much.)

Last year I read right-wing ideologues' claims that the "real" COVID death rate was only 0.1%. With 420,000 dead Americans, that would require that 420 million Americans be infected. There aren't even close to that many Americans. And with the large number of new cases, it seems to me that there is still a pretty hefty proportion of the US population that has yet to be infected or immunized.

So far, COVID-19 has achieved a death rate of 128.3 per 100,000 in the US. To reach the death rate from Spanish flu, COVID-19 would have to claim something like 2.2 million victims here in the US. At the current case fatality rate, that would require that around 130 million Americans become infected, compared to the 25 million currently known.

Where are the missing vaccine doses?
 

While watching my local news last evening, I saw a report wherein gov. Pritzker ( Illinois ) announced the results of an investigation into why our ( Illinois ) vaccination rates are so low ( 5th worst in the nation ) and where are the unaccounted vaccines? They found that the tRump administration contracted with CVS and Walgreen's to vaccinate people in nursing homes and shipped them about 40% of the total doses received. And then they ..... sat on most of them, doing only token vaccinations, with the unused doses sitting in refrigerators.
Then the next news cast, the national news, had a story ( CBS ) about the Biden wondering where all the missing doses are.

Then when I read my NYT, I found the article linked below stating that West Virginia is leading the country far and away with not only first doses but second ones also. You may pooh-pooh this as just a result that they have fewer people, but it goes beyond that. As it turns out, W. Virginia was the only state that eschewed the Walgreens and CVS deal and took the doses to administer themselves. They have been using a network of mom-and-pop pharmacies and their national guard to do this statewide. Also, their reservation system has been hailed as fast and efficient.

So the state previously known for their opoid epidemic puts the rest of the country to shame and once again we have a stellar example of why big corporations just plain suck.

[URL="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/25/us/heres-why-west-virginia-is-a-leader-in-the-us-vaccine-rollout.html"]https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/25/us/heres-why-west-virginia-is-a-leader-in-the-us-vaccine-rollout.html[/URL]