[QUOTE=kriesel]...Covid19 is mostly an old person's disease.(60% over 75, 80.7% over 65, 92.6% over 55)...[/QUOTE]

The figures above seem backwards...

What is it that make a person "old?" Is it just a number based on how many years they have been alive? I will be 65 in 15 days. My doc tells me that I am in much better condition than some in their 40's. The state of a persons' health should be factored in somehow.

[QUOTE=kriesel;557018]Re fatalities, Covid19 is mostly an old person's disease.(60% over 75, 80.7% over 65, 92.6% over 55) [URL]https://www.acsh.org/news/2020/06/23/coronavirus-covid-deaths-us-age-race-14863[/URL]
Life expectancy without Covid19, worldwide is ~73 years. [URL]https://www.worldometers.info/demographics/life-expectancy/[/URL]
In the US, ~79 years, with a death rate in recent years of about 2.8 million annually.[/quote]So you are saying it is ok for old people to die needlessly?
Based upon data from here: [url]https://ourworldindata.org/pneumonia[/url]
In 2017 in the USofA the 70+ crowd accounted for 75.6% of the deaths from lower respiratory infections and 50-69 adds 20.2% more.
So COVID falls in line with the others.

[QUOTE]The twenty leading causes of death worldwide: [URL]http://deathmeters.info/[/URL]
Compare the list of underlying conditions in the 94% of US covid19 deaths with comorbidities, to the top 20 causes of deaths list. [URL]https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/cdc-94percent-of-covid-19-deaths-had-underlying-medical-conditions/ar-BB18wrA7[/URL]
Consider also to what extent some of those conditions are substantially self inflicted, by choices to eat too much, exercise too little, smoke, abuse alcohol or other substances, drive recklessly, engage in crime and violence, etc.[/QUOTE]You obviously don't understand the idea of a comorbidity. If you are on blood thinners and get attacked by a bear and bleed to death, the blood thinners may contribute, but you died from a bear attack. No bear attack and you would not have died. Also, the 94% that you quote is not what you understand. Normally the death certificate would say something like:

[FONT="Courier New"]Cause of death[/FONT]: acute respiratory failure
[FONT="Courier New"]Which was caused by[/FONT]: pneumonia
[FONT="Courier New"]Which was caused by[/FONT]: SARS CoV-2

[FONT="Courier New"]Complicating illness[/FONT]: diabetes

The last "which was caused by" line is the cause of death, even if the other lines are filled out. Listen to this show, the example above is taken it at about 34:20 ff [URL="https://maximumfun.org/episodes/sawbones/death-certificates/"]Sawbones: episode 340: Death-certificates[/URL]
So the 6% of the time the Dr. just hasn't done their job thoroughly enough (they are likely being run ragged during the pandemic).


And of course this is the standard "blame the victim" mentality. "She was wearing a short dress, so rape was likely". You are trying to make them an "other", not a fellow human that you have to care about. Making people "other" is what spreads all sorts of evil.

[quote=kriesel;557018]Re fatalities, Covid19 is mostly an old person's disease.(60% over 75, 80.7% over 65, 92.6% over 55)[/quote]

Well, as long as it's mostly old people, who cares? [i]Their[/i] lives obviously aren't sacred.

I think it was one of the "Feiffer's fables" cartoons back in the day, with the conclusion, "The pre-born are innocent and deserve our love. The post-born are guilty and deserve what they get." A variant on "Life begins at conception and ends at birth." Or, "Most of the pre-existing health problems of people who die of COVID-19 are due to smoking, drinking, poor diet, and lack of exercise. So screw 'em."

I am reminded of something I watched on PBS way back in <Google Google> 1973. It was a series entitled [i]The Ascent of Man[/i]. The passage that came to mind is online. It is [url=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ltjI3BXKBgY]Jacob Bronowski at Auschwitz[/url].

[quote]There are two parts to the human dilemma. One is the belief that the end justifies the means. That push-button philosophy, that deliberate deafness to suffering has become the monster in the war machine. The other is the betrayal of the human spirit. The assertion of dogma that closes the mind and turns a nation, a civilization into a regiment of ghosts — obedient ghosts, or tortured ghosts.

It's said that science will dehumanize people and turn them into numbers. That's false — tragically false.

Look for yourself.

This is the concentration camp and crematorium at Auschwitz. [i]This[/i] is where people were turned into numbers. Into this pond were flushed the ashes of some four million people. And that was not done by gas — it was done by arrogance, it was done by dogma, it was done by ignorance.

When people believe that they have absolute knowledge, with no test in reality, this is how they behave. This is what men do when they aspire to the knowledge of gods.

Science is a very human form of knowledge. We are always at the brink of the known; we always feel forward for what is to be hoped. Every judgment in science stands on the edge of error and is personal. Science is a tribute to what we can know [i]although[/i] we are fallible…[/quote]

[QUOTE=kriesel;556982]Lockdown was chosen as an intrusive government policy so politicians could be seen to be doing something, in March, until more was known about the virus. [/QUOTE]

Lockdown seems to have an effect.

US numbers went down after lockdown and then back up when you reopened too early.

Italy locked down completely and numbers went down dramatically with a slight rise recently as things open back up.

Denmark's numbers went down after lockdown, and now back up after we reopened too much.

Sweden never locked down and numbers did not go down until July when some stricter measures were implemented with less people allowed to gather at once etc.
But their total numbers: 87,345 infected and 5,851 deaths are way higher than for Denmark: 21,008 infected and 633 deaths even though Sweden only have ~75% more people (10.3M vs 5.8M), and this might be related to not implementing lockdowns.

[QUOTE=ATH;557062]Lockdown seems to have an effect.

US numbers went down after lockdown and then back up when you reopened too early.[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=Uncwilly;554520]Here is the update of my graph with this weeks numbers. The last 2 weeks numbers are not plotted as they are vastly incomplete. I expect the week 31 number to go up to closer to 10,000 (maybe even 11,000) before it settles down.
USA election day is on week 45.[/QUOTE]
Looking at the chart that I have been producing, remember that this deaths from all causes. Deaths from COVID infections lag after the diagnosed infection. (Someone who worked for the organization that I work for was on a ventilator for 45 days before dying. That with days before being on it make that a 7 week lag.) So yes the lockdown dropped the spread and the easing of restrictions allowed it to flourish. 4 weeks after the easing of restrictions the death toll started rising again noticeably.

And about my prediction, week 31 is at 10,426 (above the mean) and saw a delta of ~1,200 last week. This week it should go up by about 650 as the data continue to accumulate. This is an independent death metric (not tied into an metric directly about C19). This is deaths above the 6 year previous mean for that week.

And for handy comparison here are the previous version of the chart so one can see how the data developed over time. (note the y-axis scale change a few times.)
[url]https://www.mersenneforum.org/attachment.php?attachmentid=22261&d=1588874260[/url]
[url]https://www.mersenneforum.org/attachment.php?attachmentid=22328&d=1589561940[/url]
[url]https://www.mersenneforum.org/attachment.php?attachmentid=22516&d=1591370361[/url]
[url]https://www.mersenneforum.org/attachment.php?attachmentid=22821&d=1595022767[/url]
[url]https://www.mersenneforum.org/attachment.php?attachmentid=23129&d=1598024787[/url]

[QUOTE=Uncwilly;557067]And about my prediction, week 31 is at 10,426 (above the mean) and saw a delta of ~1,200 last week. This week it should go up by about 650 as the data continue to accumulate.[/QUOTE]
I have updated the chart and added a simplistic prediction line.
[C]This week + (this week-last week)*0.75 + (week before last - last week)*0.25[/C]
Again the last 2 weeks are not plotted because the data are vastly incomplete.
The peak is now just over 25,000.

[QUOTE=Xyzzy;557025]That is easy to say when you are in a position where you really aren't putting yourself at risk.[/QUOTE]That's an odd rebuttal, given that I gave an example where I did exactly that, and had consequences.

There are numerous charts by nation of death rate and excess death rate, about midway down the page at [URL]https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386938[/URL]
The covid19-attributed excess deaths range widely as percentages. Sweden without lockdown fared better in percentage terms than the US with lockdown, but not as well as some of its neighbors. There are many confounding effects on these numbers. Overcounting covid19 deaths as in cases where acute trauma occurred but the death certificate said covid19. Overall death rate increase observed is higher than covid19-attributed in some nations,and that may relate to the significant shutdown of many types of medical treatment for several months. (I'm waiting 9 months for a rescheduled appointment with one doctor, and waited several months for another. And it's clear that is not unusual these days.) Some are actively avoiding medical care out of fear of being exposed to covid, and some of them are dying of heart attacks etc that might have been avoided or treated with more access to care. From the FT page, "Adjusting for population size, the hardest hit countries are Peru and Ecuador, each of which have seen more than 1,000 excess deaths per million inhabitants. The two Latin American countries also have the highest excess percentage — excess deaths expressed as a share of normal deaths for the same period." Is this mostly from an inadequate healthcare system, culture, government response, what?

[QUOTE=kriesel;557901]There are numerous charts by nation of death rate and excess death rate, about midway down the page at [URL]https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386938[/URL]
Sweden without lockdown fared better in percentage terms than the US with lockdown, but not as well as some of its neighbors.[/QUOTE]
The U.S. lockdown was incomplete and considerable amount of the states reopened up too early which didn't follow the health guidelines.

Sweden is definitely performing better recently while USA is expecting the surge as soon as the first major cold front arrives to the Midwest regions.

Suicide rate was seen to increase related to the spanish flu epidemic a century ago. Also in Hong Kong related to SARS in 2003. Effects are projected to last for years. Likely mechanisms are discussed. [URL]https://academic.oup.com/qjmed/advance-article/doi/10.1093/qjmed/hcaa202/5857612[/URL]

On counting all the deaths, not just the covid19, as significant: [URL]https://nypost.com/2020/04/14/we-must-count-the-deaths-from-shutdowns-as-well-as-from-coronavirus/[/URL]

[QUOTE=kriesel;557904]Suicide rate was seen to increase related to the spanish flu epidemic a century ago. Also in Hong Kong related to SARS in 2003. Effects are projected to last for years. Likely mechanisms are discussed. [URL]https://academic.oup.com/qjmed/advance-article/doi/10.1093/qjmed/hcaa202/5857612[/URL]

On counting all the deaths, not just the covid19, as significant: [URL]https://nypost.com/2020/04/14/we-must-count-the-deaths-from-shutdowns-as-well-as-from-coronavirus/[/URL][/QUOTE]
All lockdowns had significant economic damages, thus it's critical for the people to follow the orders during the meantime. The stimulus bills are only the temporary solutions, the schools and business have to open up eventually, if the resurgence of the virus keep stand on the way of the middle class groups, lot of unemployment and foreclosures will be expected which ultimately lead to the increasing of the suicidal rates.

[QUOTE=tuckerkao;557903]USA is expecting the surge as soon as the first major cold front arrives to the Midwest regions.[/QUOTE]Why is that? If the summer heat didn't do much to slow it, a cooldown seems unlikely to boost it much. This article describes weather sensitivities found by various studies:

[url]https://www.news-medical.net/news/20200506/The-effect-of-weather-on-COVID-19-infection-rate.aspx[/url] and predicted covid19 disappearing in the US by October, which is not happening.

[QUOTE=kriesel;557901]Overcounting covid19 deaths as in cases where acute trauma occurred but the death certificate said covid19. Overall death rate increase observed is higher than covid19-attributed in some nations,and that may relate to the significant shutdown of many types of medical treatment for several months. [/QUOTE]Can you point to any solid evidence that trauma deaths are being miscounted as C19? Not an anecdote, solid evidence?

And in the USA road deaths were down at the time of the great peak. So that offset the numbers as well. And the tail end of the flu season was effected by the lockdown, reducing actual flu deaths.

[QUOTE=kriesel;557906]Why is that? If the summer heat didn't do much to slow it, a cooldown seems unlikely to boost it much. This article describes weather sensitivities found by various studies:

[url]https://www.news-medical.net/news/20200506/The-effect-of-weather-on-COVID-19-infection-rate.aspx[/url] and predicted covid19 disappearing in the US by October, which is not happening.[/QUOTE]
There were nearly no influenza spreading during the entire summer time from June to August 2020. USA just recorded 50,000+ new Covid cases today which have been significantly higher than the previous 2 weeks.

Just wait and see, unless people are frequently getting tested, the asymptomatic carriers will continue to drive up that infection force.

Once people start to gather more inside and conduct larger mass indoor activities as Thanksgiving and Christmas approaching, the total daily cases will break the new records. Most Americans aren't giving up their traditions because of the pandemic.

[QUOTE=kriesel;557906][url]https://www.news-medical.net/news/20200506/The-effect-of-weather-on-COVID-19-infection-rate.aspx[/url] and predicted covid19 disappearing in the US by October, which is not happening.[/QUOTE]That is the only outlet to site the original paper. And that site published it in May, when the data of their April downturn prediction was already known to be wrong.

[QUOTE=Uncwilly;557911]That is the only outlet to site the original paper. And that site published it in May, when the data of their April downturn prediction was already known to be wrong.[/QUOTE]
Dr. Fauci has claimed that at least 1 effective Covid vaccine will be ready to deliver to the American general public starting Dec 2020. I'm still not seeing this promise happening.

Why did you feel the need to quote my post and then talk about something different? Are you looking at the monitor at 100° tilt or something?

[QUOTE=Uncwilly;557914]Why did you feel the need to quote my post and then talk about something different? Are you looking at the monitor at 100° tilt or something?[/QUOTE]
I was talking about many of the predictions being wrong in the past including that article being posted back in May from your post and many of the statements claimed by Trump and Fauci.

If I want my life to be back to the normal point, these promises have to be fulfilled first. The only condition for Covid to magically disappear in October 2020 is to have an effective vaccine ready.

[QUOTE=tuckerkao;557915]I was talking about many of the predictions being wrong in the past including that article being posted back in May from your post and many of the statements claimed by Trump and Fauci.

If I want my life to be back to the normal point, these promises have to be fulfilled first. [U]The only condition for Covid to magically disappear in October 2020 is to have an effective vaccine ready.[/U][/QUOTE]
Effective, and of course, safe. The various misinformation campaigns have greatly decreased the percentage of people who say they would accept a vaccination. Some folks pushing to drop something by the election is making lots of people, like me, nervous. If political concerns supplant medical guidance, that loss of trust will be magnified.

[QUOTE=kriesel;557901]...
the hardest hit countries are Peru and Ecuador, each of which have seen more than 1,000 excess deaths per million inhabitants. The two Latin American countries also have the highest excess percentage — excess deaths expressed as a share of normal deaths for the same period." Is this mostly from an inadequate healthcare system, culture, government response, what?[/QUOTE]Perhaps poverty and lack of resources for the government might play a role (amongst other factors) ? Not all countries can create money out of, not even thin air, but out of the void, that will accepted by others [noparse];-)[/noparse]

Jacob

[QUOTE=tuckerkao;557912]Dr. Fauci has claimed that at least 1 effective Covid vaccine will be ready to deliver to the American general public starting Dec 2020. I'm still not seeing this promise happening.[/QUOTE]Could you please cite a source for "Will be ready?"

As far as I can tell, what he [i]actually[/i] said (back in April) was, (according to [url=https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/05/22/860638799/fauci-voices-cautious-optimism-about-moderna-vaccine-calling-trial-quite-promisi]this report[/url] and others) was as follows (my emphasis):[quote]"I think it is [b]conceivable if[/b] we don't run into things that are, as they say, unanticipated setbacks, that we [b]could[/b] have a vaccine that we [b]could[/b] be beginning to deploy at the end of this calendar year, December 2020 or into January 2021," Fauci said.

But [b]"that's never a promise,"[/b] he cautioned, "because when you're dealing with vaccines, there could be so many things that get in the way."[/quote]

[QUOTE=Dr Sardonicus;557946]Could you please cite a source for "Will be ready?"

As far as I can tell, what he [i]actually[/i] said (back in April) was, (according to [url=https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/05/22/860638799/fauci-voices-cautious-optimism-about-moderna-vaccine-calling-trial-quite-promisi]this report[/url] and others) was as follows (my emphasis):[/QUOTE]
Fauci's news is still going on CNN, I just hope it's real not a joke.
[URL="https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/25/health/us-coronavirus-friday/index.html"]https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/25/health/us-coronavirus-friday/index.html[/URL]

[QUOTE=tuckerkao;557973]Fauci's news is still going on CNN, I just hope it's real not a joke.
[URL="https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/25/health/us-coronavirus-friday/index.html"]https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/25/health/us-coronavirus-friday/index.html[/URL][/QUOTE]Thanks for the link to the current CNN story.

However, you were obviously previously referring to something Fauci said earlier, since you said[QUOTE=tuckerkao;557912]I'm still not seeing this promise happening.[/QUOTE]

The current story doesn't appear to be a joke. It also doesn't say a vaccine [i]will[/i] be ready. It says vaccinations [i]could[/i] start in November or December. That does have a certain significance, since it is [i]not[/i] saying that vaccinations absolutely can't or won't start that soon.

I do know that a Phase-3 trial for the AstraZeneca vaccine began at the end of August, and one for the Janssen vaccine began less than a week ago.

I don't know enough about the approval process to say how likely it is to happen by November or December.

[QUOTE=Dr Sardonicus;557988]

I do know that a Phase-3 trial for the AstraZeneca vaccine began at the end of August, and one for the Janssen vaccine began less than a week ago.

I don't know enough about the approval process to say how likely it is to happen by November or December.[/QUOTE]

Real vaccines take 10-15 years to get approved and for very good reason.

Are you willing to risk your life and those of your children and grandchildren on something that's been tested for 15 weeks???

The mumps vaccine was considered remarkable for reaching distribution in four years of specific development. However, work had been going one since WWII. The article points out the history of vaccines which came out before the one for mumps, which developed techniques which aided the mumps search.
[URL]https://www.history.com/news/mumps-vaccine-world-war-ii[/URL]
[QUOTE]The invention of the modern mumps vaccine is the stuff of medical textbook legend. In 1963, a star researcher at the pharmaceutical company Merck took a swab of his own daughter’s throat to begin cultivating a weakened form of the mumps virus. And just four years later, in record time, Merck licensed Mumpsvax as the world’s first effective vaccine against this common and contagious childhood illness.

But a closer look at the history of vaccines shows that this popular origin story overlooks the decades-long search for a mumps cure that began in earnest during [URL="https://www.history.com/topics/world-war-ii/world-war-ii-history"]World War II[/URL]. And it overshadows the fact that during the 1940s and 1950s, researchers chasing vaccines for polio and measles made incremental breakthroughs in lab techniques that ultimately made swift development of the 1960s Mumpsvax possible.
[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=Dr Sardonicus;557988]Thanks for the link to the current CNN story.

However, you were obviously previously referring to something Fauci said earlier, since you said.[/QUOTE]
It has been the same theme which Dr. Fauci repeated very many times. Since he got the new version of the story, so the old news probably would take a while to be able to search out on Google.

It seems strange to me how much energy is spent in this thread heckling anyone who dares to post a hint of optimism or good news, and how little is spent by so many in posting original material.

A very quick search for "Covid19 vaccine progress" yielded this, which I count to list 76 vaccine candidates, with 18 having reached or passed phase2, at least 5 of which have reached or passed phase 3 trials, 3 at registration, 1 at distribution. [URL]https://covidvax.news/progress/[/URL] (IIRC the Russians skipped over phase3 to claim "FIRDT!")

We are witnessing a sort of worldwide Manhattan project in Covid19 antiviral research and development and production, from substantial governent funding, to the fundamental research into the mechanisms of the virus, and cross immunity, to development and testing of vaccine candidates, preparation of production lines, and "speculative execution" of leading candidate initial vaccine production, in parallel, with the design intent of substantially shortening the total calendar time to availability of large quantities of safe and effective vaccine. If we get lucky on one or more of the early candidates, great, vaccination will begin. If they don't pan out, any useful lessons learned in testing or rapidly starting production will inform the efforts on later candidates. This effort also has the advantage of years or decades of scientific and engineering advances over the efforts for previous epidemics.
This WaPo article counts 170+ vaccines at preclinical trials, 10 in phase3, none approved for US use. [URL]https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/health/covid-vaccine-update-coronavirus/[/URL]
This article describes how past advances allow for more rapid progress today, and how staying the course on SARS and other past pathogens may have positioned us even further ahead when COVID19 emerged. [URL]https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/01/30/coronavirus-treatment-vaccine-cure/[/URL]

:goodposting:

[QUOTE=masser;558045]:goodposting:[/QUOTE]
+1.

From [url=https://www.odmp.org/search/year/2020]The Officer Down Memorial Page[/url] (my emphasis):
[quote][b]Total Line of Duty Deaths: 211[/b]

9/11 related cancer 4
Aircraft accident 1
Assault 1
Automobile crash 17
[b]COVID19 117[/b]
Drowned 3
Duty related illness 3
Gunfire 35
Gunfire (Inadvertent) 4
Heart attack 5
Motorcycle crash 2
Struck by vehicle 7
Vehicle pursuit 2
Vehicular assault 10[/quote]

[QUOTE=Dr Sardonicus;558472]From [url=https://www.odmp.org/search/year/2020]The Officer Down Memorial Page[/url] (my emphasis):[/QUOTE]
Let's hand wave that away as a pre-existing condition. Blame the victim.

Oh wait, sorry, they are our heroes. Let's stop this horrible killer in its tracks.

[QUOTE=Uncwilly;558474]Let's hand wave that away as a pre-existing condition. Blame the victim.

Oh wait, sorry, they are our heroes. Let's stop this horrible killer in its tracks.[/QUOTE]Of the fallen officers, almost a third worked in jails and prisons. Going through the list of 117, I counted 36 corrections or correctional officers, plus detention deputies, a chaplain and a warden. My count may not be exact, but it's not far off.

There are probably at least that many additional prison staff who have also died of COVID-19.

I suppose we can hand-wave away the more than a thousand prison [i]inmates[/i] who have died from COVID-19.

"Not only is this virus alleviating the financial problems of Social Security and Medicare, it is also relieving overcrowding in our prisons!"

[B][SIZE="5"]President Donald Trump tweets he and first lady Melania Trump test positive for Covid-19[/SIZE][/B]
[url]https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/01/politics/hope-hicks-positive-coronavirus/index.html[/url]

[QUOTE=Uncwilly;558582][B][SIZE=5]President Donald Trump tweets he and first lady Melania Trump test positive for Covid-19[/SIZE][/B]
[URL]https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/01/politics/hope-hicks-positive-coronavirus/index.html[/URL][/QUOTE]
Well, you know the Repub attitude about health care, "If you get sick, please die quickly,"
I would add, "Please suffer in proportion to all the people whom you doomed to suffer and die." Take your time. Be sure to infect Pence, Barr, [STRIKE]Pompous Ass[/STRIKE] Pompeo, and Devos on your way out. Oh yeah. Take the entire cabinet with you, too....and your SCOTUS stooges. Just don't forget to spend plenty of time in ICU, entubated, catheterized, and stuck full of IVs. :rant:

If the man get so sick that it can't go to the second/third debate, will they simply be cancelled? done over Zoom? Or will Pence take his place?

[QUOTE=firejuggler;558587]If the man get so sick that it can't go to the second/third debate, will they simply be cancelled? done over Zoom? Or will Pence take his place?[/QUOTE]
I don't know when it comes to debates. I guess if Rump were incapacitated to the point of replacement that could happen. It seems more likely that the whole circus would collapse.

Remember to stay on topic about the pandemic.

Fun with statistics
 

The Congressional Resource Service's [url=https://fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/RL32492.pdf]American War and Military Operations Casualties: Lists and Statistics[/url] (Updated July 29, 2020 ) has the following statistics for the US military in WWII:

Number serving 16,112,566

Battle deaths 291,557

Other deaths[sup]*[/sup] 113,842

Total deaths 405,399

[sup]*[/sup]World War II was the first war in which there were more American battle casualties than deaths from other causes, such as accidents, disease, and infections.

I note a couple of curiosities.

First, in six months COVID-19 has killed over half as many Americans as military service members died in the line of duty in World War II.

Second, the percentage of those serving in the military in WWII who died in the line of duty is just over 2.5 percent, while the case-fatality rate from COVID-19 in the US is 2.9 percent. So, it's riskier for my fellow-countrymen to catch the virus, than it was to serve in the military in WWII.

According to the Dear Leader of the USA the battle dead are losers. Not strong enough to pull through like the Furher of the free world.

[QUOTE=Uncwilly;559037]According to the Dear Leader of the USA the battle dead are losers. Not strong enough to pull through like the Furher of the free world.[/QUOTE]
I refer you to [url=https://www.mersenneforum.org/showpost.php?p=558605&postcount=1104]this post[/url].

The new daily cases surpassed 1,000 for both New York and New Jersey. The 2nd wave of Covid infections has officially arrived to the Northeast regions.

[QUOTE=tuckerkao;559284]The new daily cases surpassed 1,000 for both New York and New Jersey. The 2nd wave of Covid infections has officially arrived to the Northeast regions.[/QUOTE]Post a link.

The numbers are still increasing, New York may get more after the Suffolk county reports its numbers today.
[URL="https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/"]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/[/URL]

From [url=https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/07/health/us-coronavirus-wednesday/index.html]a CNN report yesterday[/url],[quote]Fourteen states reported more than 1,000 new cases Tuesday. California, Florida, Kansas, Texas and Wisconsin had more than 2,000 infections.[/quote]

Also in yesterday's news, this AP story got my attention. I didn't get around to posting it until now.

[url=https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-milwaukee-wisconsin-archive-61856a69ec6e9e6f032bb121b6d58a5d]Wisconsin activates field hospital as COVID keeps surging[/url][quote]MADISON, Wis. (AP) — Wisconsin health officials announced Wednesday that a field hospital will open next week at the state fairgrounds near Milwaukee as a surge in COVID-19 cases threatens to overwhelm hospitals.

Wisconsin has become a hot spot for the disease over the last month, ranking third nationwide this week in new cases per capita over the last two weeks. Health experts have attributed the spike to the reopening of colleges and K-12 schools as well as general fatigue over wearing masks and socially distancing.
<snip>
The move also came as a state judge was considering a lawsuit seeking to strike down Evers' mandate that masks be worn in enclosed public spaces. The governor on Tuesday issued new restrictions on the size of indoor public gatherings through Nov. 6.
<snip>
The hospital will accept patients from across Wisconsin but is designed to provide low-level care, and it will accept only patients who have already been hospitalized elsewhere for at least 24 to 48 hours, according to the state Department of Administration. Patients who qualify will be transported to the facility by ambulance. The facility will not accept walk-ins. Palm said the facility will be ready to accept 50 patients on its first day.[/quote]

[url=https://dailynorthwestern.com/2020/10/01/campus/nu-scientists-launch-covid-19-antibody-study-in-cook-county/]NU scientists launch COVID-19 antibody study in Cook County[/url][quote]Zoe Malin, Reporter
October 1, 2020

Anthropology Prof. Thomas McDade, director of the Laboratory for Human Biology Research, is no stranger to antibody testing.

His lab routinely develops antibody tests and has used dried blood spot samples — a method of collecting blood through a finger prick — for over 15 years. In April, as the COVID-19 pandemic swept through the country, McDade realized the work he was doing in his lab could be applied to the challenges the medical community was facing with coronavirus antibody testing.

"Some early antibody tests were inaccurate and had high rates of false positives, and for others to be done, people had to come into hospitals, which were overwhelmed," McDade said. "Dried blood spot methods could solve both of these problems."

While he created a new antibody test for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, his colleagues at the Feinberg School of Medicine were also developing one using serum, or blood plasma samples. They decided to collaborate and founded Screening for Coronavirus Antibodies in Neighborhoods (SCAN), launching the study in mid-June.

"We found that the results from serum perfectly mirrored those from the blood spots," said Feinberg Prof. Alexis Demonbreun in a news release.

McDade, the principal investigator of SCAN, said the study's purpose is to analyze who is exposed to COVID-19, what predicts transmission and why. SCAN also seeks to address why there are inequities in Chicago around who is getting sick, having the most serious COVID cases and dying, McDade said.[/quote][url=https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-coronavirus-antibody-testing-chicago-rate-northwestern-20201009-jxzpyewzlrcgnny2fyflupqdcq-story.html]Researchers surprised: 20% of Chicagoans in blood-test study came up positive for coronavirus antibodies[/url][quote]By HAL DARDICK
CHICAGO TRIBUNE
OCT 09, 2020

Nearly 1 in 5 Chicago residents who sent blood-spot samples to Northwestern University researchers tested positive for antibodies to the coronavirus that causes COVID-1
<snip>
The latest project, called Screening for Coronavirus Antibodies in Neighborhoods, or SCAN, is examining infection rates in five pairs of adjoining Chicago ZIP codes where rates of previously reported COVID-19 cases differed widely. Though the research is continuing, McNally said enough testing has been done to draw some initial conclusions.
9, according to preliminary results of an ongoing study.
<snip>
It is thought that antibodies likely offer protection against reinfection, but many questions remain unanswered. Those include what level of antibodies are necessary and how long they last in people's bodies.

"The most concerning thing" discovered so far, McNally said, is the number of folks tested who turned out to have had a prior infection but were unaware of that fact.

"They could be spreading it and not know they have it," she said. "It shows how clever the virus is. And yet the solution that helps a whole lot is really quite easy: It's called wearing a mask."
[/quote]

Thousands of Wisconsin hospital beds immediately available, for the moment.
Curve flattened, for SE region. All 7 Wisconsin regions have been ramping up in the past month.
[url]https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/covid-19/hosp-data.htm#capabilities[/url]

I just saw an interesting video on the Weather Channel, of all places, about the desolation of the cruise industry. Apparently shipyards have an extremely large number of these behemoth ocean cruise ships waiting to be broken down for salvage. Carnival alone has scrapped 29 of them ! They can cost up to 1,000,000,000 US dollars to build and are being sold as scrap for only 4 million US dollars !

[QUOTE=tServo;559762]Apparently shipyards have an extremely large number of these behemoth ocean cruise ships waiting to be broken down for salvage.[/QUOTE]
We had several anchored off the coast here, visible from the shore by Noordwijk.
They are now moving to Southampton for better shelter from coming storms.

[url=https://gbdeclaration.org/]The Great Barrington Declaration[/url][quote]<snip>
As immunity builds in the population, the risk of infection to all – including the vulnerable – falls. We know that all populations will eventually reach herd immunity – i.e. the point at which the rate of new infections is stable – and that this can be assisted by (but is not dependent upon) a vaccine. Our goal should therefore be to minimize mortality and social harm until we reach herd immunity.

The most compassionate approach that balances the risks and benefits of reaching herd immunity, is to allow those who are at minimal risk of death to live their lives normally to build up immunity to the virus through natural infection, while better protecting those who are at highest risk. We call this Focused Protection.
<snip>[/quote]

[QUOTE=Dr Sardonicus;560256][url=https://gbdeclaration.org/]The Great Barrington Declaration[/url][quote]<snip>
As immunity builds in the population, the risk of infection to all – including the vulnerable – falls. We know that all populations will eventually reach herd immunity – i.e. the point at which the rate of new infections is stable – and that this can be assisted by (but is not dependent upon) a vaccine. Our goal should therefore be to minimize mortality and social harm until we reach herd immunity.

The most compassionate approach that balances the risks and benefits of reaching herd immunity, is to allow those who are at minimal risk of death to live their lives normally to build up immunity to the virus through natural infection, while better protecting those who are at highest risk. We call this Focused Protection.
<snip>[/quote][/QUOTE]Sounds reasonable. But do we know who are most at-risk?

[size=1]Also I'm sure that that would never be misused to "accidentally" declare some annoying group of people as at-risk and lock them up; purely for their own protection of course.[/size]

The most at risk are cared for and live among the rest of the people. They don't leave on another planet.

:goodposting:

[QUOTE=a1call;560264]The most at risk are cared for and live among the rest of the people. They don't leave on another planet.[/QUOTE]That's why you lock them up and pass the food through a slot. It's for their protection so they shouldn't have any reason to complain.

[size=1]The age-old cry of every oppressor "It's for your protection".[/size]

[QUOTE=retina;560267]That's why you lock them up and pass the food through a slot. It's for their protection so they shouldn't have any reason to complain.

[size=1]The age-old cry of every oppressor "It's for your protection".[/size][/QUOTE]

Yes, we have been doing just that for months now. It is quite obvious that all the measures at isolating and protecting the elderly has been very effectively paying off. The Death rate ratios of the over-29-years old's has never surpassed [B]630 [/B]times that of the 29 years and younger.:smile:

But hey tomorrow is another day.

[url]https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-age.html[/url]

[QUOTE=a1call;560268]Yes, we have been doing just that for months now. It is quite obvious that all the measures at isolating and protecting the elderly has been very effectively paying off. The Death rate ratios of the over-29-years old's has never surpassed [B]630 [/B]times that of the 29 years and younger.:smile:

But hey tomorrow is another day.

[url]https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-age.html[/url][/QUOTE]Right. The 5-17 years old group are clearly the not-at-risk people, so they can do whatever they want. But everyone else is at-risk, so let's lock all of [i]them[/i] up. Nothing could possibly go wrong.

[size=1]Please give me a few hours to [strike]hack[/strike] update my birth records and then we can implement this new "for your safety" rule.[/size]

[QUOTE=Dr Sardonicus;560256]The Great Barrington Declaration[/QUOTE]

I think links like that should be accompanied with a note of their political non-scientific origins.

[QUOTE=Nick;560290]I think links like that should be accompanied with a note of their political non-scientific origins.[/QUOTE]I don't see why. The folks here seem to have zeroed in on the fact that the Great Barrington Declaration "proposes" a facile phrase -- "focused protection" -- without any real idea of how to carry it out.

The principal signatories are statisticians and economists. Being able to identify how an outbreak of disease is progressing, and how it is, or has been, affecting economic activity has its place. But, as far as I can tell, these folks don't have any particular expertise in [i]dealing with[/i] infectious diseases.

It's easy, though:[quote]A comprehensive and detailed list of measures, including approaches to multi-generational households, can be implemented, and is well within the scope and capability of public health professionals.[/quote]
See, just claim that [i]someone else[/i] is able to work out the details. And when things go south, you've got ready-made scapegoats.

A sentiment attributed to economists (but which I think fits ideologues of all stripes) is, "If my theory does not agree with reality, then so much the worse for reality."

Speaking of ready-made scapegoats...
 

From a Monday call to campaign staff -- knowing members of the press were on the line -- as quoted, e.g. [url=https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-virus-outbreak-joe-biden-donald-trump-nevada-00a1dc6f5932c9fe778ee5e9cabacc71]here[/url] and [url=https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/19/fauci-trump-wearing-mask-weakness-430114]here[/url],

[color=orange]"People are tired of Covid. People are saying, 'Whatever, just leave us alone.'"

"People are tired of hearing Fauci and all these idiots."

"He's been here for, like, 500 years. He's like this wonderful sage telling us how -- Fauci, if we listened to him, we'd have 700,000 [or] 800,000 deaths."

"Every time he goes on television, there's always a bomb. But there's a bigger bomb if you fire him. But Fauci's a disaster."[/color]

The call's also on YouTube.

Opioid deaths almost double compared to a year earlier. [URL]https://www.syracuse.com/coronavirus/2020/10/onondaga-county-opioid-deaths-skyrocket-during-coronavirus-pandemic.html[/URL]

"The coronavirus pandemic is making the opioid epidemic worse, according to Dr. Ross Sullivan, an emergency medicine doctor at Upstate University Hospital and medical director of Helio Health, a drug treatment agency.
The increase in pandemic-related unemployment and depression have led to more drug use, he said.
A [URL="https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/pdfs/mm6932a1-H.pdf"]national survey[/URL] conducted in June by the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found 13% of U.S. adults surveyed said they had started or increased substance use to cope with stress or emotions related to the coronavirus pandemic."

White house Chief of Staff Mark Meadows recently said, "We're not going to control the pandemic."

I can assure everyone that the White House is relying on wisdom from one of the most famous sages in American history:
[indent]I don't like to face problems head on

I think the best way to solve problems is to avoid them

This is a distinct philosophy of mine

No problem is so big or so complicated that it can't be run away from![/indent]
-- Linus, in [i]Peanuts[/i], by Charles M. Schulz (27 Feb. 1963)

I believe that CoS Meadows subsequently explained that they were not going to [B]contain[/B] the pandemic, but "We are going to [B]destroy[/B] the pandemic."
The above in quotes should be in the voice of Lrr, from Futurama.
[YOUTUBE]gZfpaUDllqs[/YOUTUBE]

Death takes a holiday...
 

I was looking at graphs of COVID-19 deaths in the US by day, like [url=https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-daily-deaths]this one[/url]. There is an obvious periodic variation which I reckon is an artifact of the reporting process. The numbers dip on Sunday and Monday, regular as clockwork. I noticed other dips associated with Memorial Day, the Fourth of July, and Labor Day.

[QUOTE=Dr Sardonicus;562299]I was looking at graphs of COVID-19 deaths in the US by day, like [url=https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-daily-deaths]this one[/url]. There is an obvious periodic variation which I reckon is an artifact of the reporting process. The numbers dip on Sunday and Monday, regular as clockwork. I noticed other dips associated with Memorial Day, the Fourth of July, and Labor Day.[/QUOTE]It's about the testing IMO, more than the reporting. People are less active during days off. Welcome to the modern lifestyle. We've only been living like this for a few millennia, we'll wait while you catch up. :razz:

[QUOTE=retina;562334]It's about the testing IMO, more than the reporting.[/QUOTE]It has been mentioned in the news by the pros that it is about[B] reporting.[/B] Filling out the DC's and doing other work to verify that it is related to the virus often only happens on the weekdays.

I found this article informative.
Perhaps others might as well:

[QUOTE]
Coronavirus vaccine: When will we have one?

[/QUOTE]


[url]https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51665497[/url]

[QUOTE=Uncwilly;562335]It has been mentioned in the news by the pros that it is about[B] reporting.[/B] Filling out the DC's and [b]doing other work to verify that it is related to the virus[/b] often only happens on the weekdays.[/QUOTE]Is that not testing?

[QUOTE=retina;562377]Is that not testing?[/QUOTE]
Testing if someone died is easy. Some jurisdictions/hospitals don't have staff on hand to process the paperwork on the weekends. If they only have to report things during normal working days, why pay for extra staff to report on days they don't have to.
Death certificates have to pass through the hands of the non-trainee doctors. They tend to have a more normal schedule.

When I saw the graphic, and found the dips in reported deaths were on Sundays, Mondays, and some holidays, my mind went into "logical overdrive." A thought like "they'd-know-they-had-it-before-they-died-gotta-be-the-reporting" flashed through my mind unconsciously, leaving only the conclusion: I [i]knew[/i] it had to be the reporting. I wasn't sure [i]how[/i] I knew, but I knew it was in there, somewhere.

It was only later, when I saw "testing" in the response, I began to think consciously about the sequence of events, and - boom! [i]That's it![/i]

People who die of COVID-19 or complications from it don't usually drop dead before they can be tested for the virus. If they are hospitalized, they will be tested before they are admitted; and if there is any delay in getting the results, be handled as if they had it until the results are known. And if the patient does die, that will almost certainly be days, if not weeks later. So the test results are almost certainly in hand well before the "negative patient outcome."

Fewer people die in the weekends. So you need to factor in that also.

Why would people care dieing on specific week days? Or are you thinking of general deaths, including traffic death, work accidents, etc.?

[QUOTE=kruoli;562415]Why would people care dieing on specific week days? Or are you thinking of general deaths, including traffic death, work accidents, etc.?[/QUOTE]I mentioned previously that in general people are less active in the weekends. They are probably also more relaxed and/or happy. These have effects on health and ability to continue living. Also the mental state has a factor to play. If your relatives come over for the weekend to comfort you then you can will yourself to live longer, and then die later when you are less willing to continue the struggle to survive.

[QUOTE=retina;562412]Fewer people die in the weekends. So you need to factor in that also.[/QUOTE]So much for "It's the testing." What you are doing now is commonly referred to as "moving the goalposts."

Assuming "fewer people die on weekends" is a phenomenon predating COVID, I don't see why I need to "factor it in" to reporting statistics on COVID. Instead, I'd look at [i]what[/i] people died of less over the weekends, enough to show up in the statistics. IIRC heart disease is the leading cause of death, so my guess would be fewer heart attacks over the weekend, and maybe more on Monday morning.

But it's [i]your[/i] hypothesis. [i]You[/i] "factor it in."

[QUOTE=Dr Sardonicus;562418]So much for "It's the testing." What you are doing now is commonly referred to as "moving the goalposts."[/QUOTE]Well you stop down my testing hypothesis. I didn't defend it. I was just adding in one more factor to consider.

[QUOTE=Uncwilly;557895]I have updated the chart and added a simplistic prediction line.
[C]This week + (this week-last week)*0.75 + (week before last - last week)*0.25[/C]
Again the last 2 weeks are not plotted because the data are vastly incomplete.
The peak is now just over 25,000.[/QUOTE]

I have updated the chart for the new season. I added in the last season into the average and Std Dev for the new season. It looks like this peak will pass the height of the summer/post summer peak.

[QUOTE=Uncwilly;563877]I have updated the chart for the new season. I added in the last season into the average and Std Dev for the new season. It looks like this peak will pass the height of the summer/post summer peak.[/QUOTE]

This chart proves that masks, social distancing, and other limits on our freedoms are leading to more deaths, not less.

Okay, I'm being satirical with that statement, but that is one of the arguments being made by conservatives.

[QUOTE]
Urgences Santé paramedics in Montreal and Laval were ordered not to resuscitate certain patients during the height of the pandemic to keep hospital ICUs from being overwhelmed.

Le Devoir reports the ministerial order was in place between April 4 and September 21, even though hospitals were less crowded over the summer. The order was lifted following complaints from the union.

[/QUOTE]

[url]https://www.iheartradio.ca/cjad/news/urgences-sante-paramedics-told-not-to-resuscitate-certain-patients-at-height-of-pandemic-report-1.14014612[/url]

[url=https://apnews.com/article/pandemics-angela-merkel-germany-coronavirus-pandemic-fe1dfe62a7d0f80e847767e0b9ea2f9b]The Latest: Mask mandate spurs Idaho official to push back[/url][quote]SANDPOINT, Idaho (AP) — A county commissioner in northern Idaho has proposed defunding the local health district after the district instituted a mask mandate to slow the spread of the coronavirus as it surges in the area.

The Bonner County Dailey reports that Bonner County Commissioner Steven Bradshaw proposed the resolution this week to pull about $250,000 from the Panhandle Health District.

Commission Chairman Dan McDonald said the resolution will have to be placed on the agenda before it can be considered at next week's meeting.

The health district ordered the mask mandate on Nov. 19.

Bonner County Sheriff Daryl Wheeler says his agency won't enforce it.

The Panhandle Health District covers five northern Idaho counties. The district reports the area has more than 9,000 virus cases and 106 deaths. The district reported 185 new cases on Wednesday, and that 74 people were hospitalized in the district due to the virus.[/quote]

[QUOTE=Dr Sardonicus;564566][url=https://apnews.com/article/pandemics-angela-merkel-germany-coronavirus-pandemic-fe1dfe62a7d0f80e847767e0b9ea2f9b]The Latest: Mask mandate spurs Idaho official to push back[/url][/QUOTE]

A couple decades ago when states started passing required helmet laws for motorcyclists a big stink was raised in some state by the motorcyclists using the same freedom blah blah arguments being used today about mask mandates. So a law was passed that if a motorcyclist died in an accident while not wearing a helmet, their life insurance policy would be null and void. I don't know if the law still stands or if it was tossed out.

I have read and seen numerous stories about nurses telling about patients with covid who refuse to believe they are actually suffering from covid. Non mask wearers, no doubt.

How about a law: you don't want to wear a mask, OK but you don't get to clog up a hospital when you become infected.
Of course the logistics are difficult.

It's going to get VERY grippy here in the new-s-a in about 10 days to 2 weeks as the Thanksgiving superspreader event starts to manifest itself and hospitals, which are teetering on the brink now, fall off a cliff.
It;s going to be a bleak Christmas.

[QUOTE=tServo;564573]A couple decades ago when states started passing required helmet laws for motorcyclists a big stink was raised in some state by the motorcyclists using the same freedom blah blah arguments being used today about mask mandates.
<snip>[/QUOTE]Yes, the "I have the right not to wear a helmet while motorcycling" reflects a mindset similar to the "I have right to be reckless about spreading a contagious disease."

This instance is worse IMO in that it has a yahoo-in-office threatening an entire public agency -- a health district -- for trying to do its job. Or I should say, [i]part[/i] of its job. Public health agencies typically deal with much more than trying to control the spread of dangerous diseases -- like making sure people can eat the food prepared by restaurants or outdoor vendors; to buy the food at grocery stores; to stay at motels; or to use other public accommodations and facilities, without getting sick.
[quote]It's going to get VERY grippy here in the new-s-a in about 10 days to 2 weeks as the Thanksgiving superspreader event starts to manifest itself and hospitals, which are teetering on the brink now, fall off a cliff.
It;s going to be a bleak Christmas.[/QUOTE]
The Great Leaver and wife issued a Thanksgiving Proclamation. If memory serves (and of course, my memory isn't as good as it used to be), the Proclamation urged people to gather in large groups indoors for gluttony and/or giving thanks to God for their many blessings. And, if they smell gas, search for the leak with a lit candle.

A long article on present and lasting psychological effects of the current pandemic and responses to it. [url]https://www.thecut.com/2020/11/covid-19-pandemic-kids-mental-health.html[/url]

If you go to Barcelona zoo, stay a couple of meters away from the lions - apparently, 4 of them have Covid (and yes it was a swab test).

[URL]https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55229433[/URL]

[QUOTE=Nick;565677]If you go to Barcelona zoo, stay a couple of meters away from the lions[/QUOTE]That's a good policy for all apex predators in any event. Or 2 km if they're not well confined.
How far does a lion sneeze or cough travel I wonder.

[QUOTE=kriesel;565695]How far does a lion sneeze or cough travel I wonder.[/QUOTE]
That would depend entirely on whether the lion is adhering to the local face covering regulations.

:rofl: Nice one Brian, welcome back (didn't see you posting for a while).

re: infected animals: The imbecility is going a bit too far, haha.

[QUOTE=Brian-E;565697]That would depend entirely on whether the lion is adhering to the local face covering regulations.[/QUOTE]Good one!

When I was in a grocery store some months back, I pointed to the sign about service dogs and asked the "greeter" if the dogs had to wear masks.

At a recent hearing, Rudy Giuliani asked a witness sitting near him to take off her mask. She declined. Rudy was admitted to MedStar Georgetown University Hospital Sunday, after testing positive (sez the prez) for COVID19 and reportedly exhibiting symptoms. I still don't have good confirmation on the diagnosis, but hospitals don't generally admit patients without a good reason.

[QUOTE=Brian-E;565697]That would depend entirely on whether the lion is adhering to the local face covering regulations.[/QUOTE]
I nominate the hypocritical pols that don't follow their own mandates for the task of enforcing predator mask mandates, and the local predator megafauna for enforcing term limits.

LED lights found to kill coronavirus: Global first in fight against COVID-19
[url]https://aftau.org/news_item/led-lights-found-to-kill-coronavirus-global-first-in-fight-against-covid-19/[/url]

[QUOTE=ATH;566195]LED lights found to kill coronavirus: Global first in fight against COVID-19[/QUOTE]However most of the transmission is during the short time droplets move from one person to another. [URL="https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/wellness/cdc-updated-its-guidance-on-covid-19-and-surfaces-here-s-what-that-means-for-your-home/ar-BB14RoST"]Surface transmission is not well documented[/URL]. Also, it has been poor ventilation in general. There are already UV systems available for air handling systems.

[QUOTE=ATH;566195]LED lights found to kill coronavirus: Global first in fight against COVID-19
[url]https://aftau.org/news_item/led-lights-found-to-kill-coronavirus-global-first-in-fight-against-covid-19/[/url][/QUOTE]This article is just about the fact that virus killing UV light can be produced using LEDs. Just LED lights will no do. The fact that UV kill viruses is also no "global first".

The title should have been something like "LED produced UV could help in the fight against COVID-19".

Jacob

[QUOTE=S485122;566250]The title should have been something like "LED produced UV could help in the fight against COVID-19".[/QUOTE]Yes, you are correct.

But it didn't seem to help Mr. Orange at the White House. All those hours in the UV beds didn't protect him.

[QUOTE=ATH;566195]LED lights found to kill coronavirus: Global first in fight against COVID-19
[url]https://aftau.org/news_item/led-lights-found-to-kill-coronavirus-global-first-in-fight-against-covid-19/[/url][/QUOTE]The main significance appears to be, "It's cheaper."

[url=https://www.timesofisrael.com/cheaper-leds-can-disinfect-against-covid-19-israeli-scientists-find/]Cheaper LEDs can disinfect against COVID-19, Israeli scientists find[/url][quote]
<snip>
Israeli researchers have found a way to significantly cut the cost of COVID-19-killing ultraviolet lights, and they are working on LED-embedded surfaces that clean themselves.

"We have discovered that it's easier than previously imagined to disinfect from coronavirus using light, and we are already working on exciting applications for our findings," Hadas Mamane, head of Tel Aviv University's Environmental Engineering Program, told The Times of Israel.
<snip>
The team's research has been published in the peer-reviewed Journal of Photochemistry and Photobiology B: Biology. The key finding is that LEDs emitting light with a wavelength of 285 nanometers were almost as efficient in disinfecting the virus as those with a wavelength of 265 nanometers, requiring less than half a minute to destroy more than 99.9% of the coronaviruses.

This result is significant because the cost of 285-nanometer LED bulbs is 30% lower than that of 265-nanometer bulbs, said Mamane. She predicted this will make ultraviolet cleaning more common in ventilation systems and air conditioners, and make it a common solution for public transportation and other uses, she said.
<snip>[/quote]

CBS reports that Covid was the leading cause of death in the USA during the first week of December:

[URL="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-19-leading-cause-of-death-united-states-this-week/"]https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-19-leading-cause-of-death-united-states-this-week/[/URL]

[QUOTE=tServo;566293]CBS reports that Covid was the leading cause of death in the USA during the first week of December...[/QUOTE]

I just read that fatalities among Native Americans are much higher than those of the mass population. Many of them do not trust the "white man's medicine." They have their own ways of dealing with illness which probably goes back many hundreds of years.

[QUOTE=storm5510;566295]I just read that fatalities among Native Americans are much higher than those of the mass population. Many of them do not trust the "white man's medicine." They have their own ways of dealing with illness which probably goes back many hundreds of years.[/QUOTE]AutoDarwination?

[QUOTE=storm5510;566295]I just read that fatalities among Native Americans are much higher than those of the mass population. Many of them do not trust the "white man's medicine." They have their own ways of dealing with illness which probably goes back many hundreds of years.[/QUOTE]It is more typically for lack of resources, not ignoring modern medicine.
[URL="https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/24/health/navajo-nation-coronavirus-losses-wellness/index.html"]https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/24/health/navajo-nation-coronavirus-losses-wellness/index.html [/URL]
[QUOTE]Lack of government support
Piñon High School Principal Timothy Nelson believes there are a number of reasons for the Navajo Nation's high rate of infection, including a lack of federal and state government support.[/QUOTE]

I would venture that many Native Americans are living in dire poverty, and therefore suffer from poor diet and/or chronic malnutrition, which can leave people less able to fight off illness than the well-nourished. Poor diet can also cause "pre-existing conditions" such as dietary deficiency diseases, and - especially if the diet is heavy on carbohydrates, fats, and sugars - obesity and diabetes. It may also be the case that in some locales, drinking water supplies may not be as free of pollutants, parasites, or pathogens as most of us Forumites likely take for granted.

On top of that, the likely very meager medical resources available already alluded to (which would result in less-than-optimal treatment of any previous bouts of injury or illness), and the near-certainty of extreme distrust toward the "white man's" [i]anything[/i], and the prospects for "negative patient outcome" from the current pandemic would seem to be enhanced.

It is also possible that some populations of Native Americans have been sufficiently isolated from the white man's world, that they have had much less exposure to white man's diseases than those not so isolated, and are therefore correspondingly less resistant to them.

That any of these circumstances are [i]self-imposed[/i] is IMO a very questionable proposition.

What the heck?

On Wednesday, many states announced that they were only getting half the number of doses that were originally scheduled for the second batch of the Pfizer vaccine. Here in Illinois, the governor stated that he was informed of this by the feds. When the federal agencies were questioned about this on Thursday, they explained that structural problems with supplies of some of the vials and other equipment, blah blah blah were preventing Pfizer from shipping out the full number of doses in the second batch. Pfizer quickly announced in a statement that they had all the doses sitting in warehouses ready to go but hadn't received orders on when and where to ship them.

This is mind boggling and is tremendous fodder for conspiracy theories/
Some possibilities:
(1) The tRump admin is just stupid and forgot ( Doh ).
(2) Everyone is bailing out and there is no one left to actually do any work.
(3) what's your idea? ( besides incompetence to the max )

[URL="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/17/health/pfizer-covid-vaccine-doses.html"]https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/17/health/pfizer-covid-vaccine-doses.html[/URL]