[url]https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/03/that-time-world-of-warcraft-helped-epidemiologists-model-an-outbreak/[/url]

[QUOTE=kriesel;539845]<snip>
I suppose a lowest bound would use the nation's human population in the denominator. But that stat seems both very optimistic and not useful for making extrapolations while the pandemic is going on.[/QUOTE]If it were anywhere close to right, it would all be over within a couple of weeks.

[FONT="Arial Black"][SIZE="2"][COLOR="Red"]Mod note:[/COLOR][/SIZE][/FONT] I moved the game play encryption posts to their own thread.
[url]https://www.mersenneforum.org/showthread.php?t=25369[/url]

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The Administration is simply [i]furious[/i] about a voicemail (predictably described as [i]viral[/i]) warning of a national quarantine being planned for the US in several weeks. Officials are denouncing it as foreign disinformation.

Apparently the Admin thinks that giving the American people disinformation on COVID-19 is [i]its[/i] sole prerogative. If it's any comfort, foreign disinformation campaigns would have a lot of catching-up to do. Here is a sampling of our Great Leader's pronouncements:

[quote]Jan. 22: "We have it totally under control."

Jan. 24: "It will all work out well."

Feb. 14: "We have a very small number of people in the country, right now, with it. It's like around 12. Many of them are getting better. Some are fully recovered already. So we're in very good shape."

Feb. 19: "I think it's going to work out fine. I think when we get into April, in the warmer weather, that has a very negative effect on that and that type of a virus. So let's see what happens, but I think it's going to work out fine."

Feb. 24: The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA. We are in contact with everyone and all relevant countries. CDC & World Health have been working hard and very smart. Stock Market starting to look very good to me!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) February 24, 2020

Feb. 26: "Because of all we've done, the risk to the American people remains very low. … When you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero. That's a pretty good job we've done."

Feb. 28: "It's going to disappear. One day, it's like a miracle, it will disappear."

March 12: "It's going to go away. ... The United States, because of what I did and what the administration did with China, we have 32 deaths at this point … when you look at the kind of numbers that you're seeing coming out of other countries, it's pretty amazing when you think of it."

March 15: "This is a very contagious virus. It's incredible. But it's something that we have tremendous control over."[/quote]

Impressive display of foolish ignorance...


Meanwhile, he got some hints that a german company is near the head of the competition to find a vaccine, and what is his instinctive reaction: Get it for the US _exclusively_. (yes, Canadians, Brits, Australians and the rest of the world, you'ld be out, or probably you'ld have to pay it all and more ;-)


Knowing that german universities are involved in the project makes it even stranger to believe that somebody thinks that he could simply buy out the product.

Trump is of course doing his usual mix of NYC RE wheeler-dealer, pro wrasslin heel and carnival barker, but it seems there is no lack of "doh!" company among the leaders of fellow western nations:

[url=https://www.politico.eu/article/coronavirus-europe-incompetence-pandemic/]Coronavirus: The incompetence pandemic[/url] | POLITICO

SF Bay Area (6 counties, I'm in Marinm north of the Golden Gate bridge) just issued a shelter-in-place order:

[url]https://www.sfchronicle.com/local-politics/article/Bay-Area-must-shelter-in-place-Only-15135014.php[/url]

[i][url=https://www.sfdph.org/dph/alerts/files/HealthOrderC19-07-%20Shelter-in-Place.pdf]The order[/url] falls just short of a full lockdown, which would forbid people from leaving their homes without explicit permission. The order calls for county and city sheriffs or police chiefs to “ensure compliance,” and local authorities said they would not “rush to enforce” the directives as residents adjusted to understand what activities are no longer allowed.

A wide swath of businesses that do not provide “essential” services must close. Among those remaining open are grocery stores, pharmacies, restaurants for delivery only and hardware stores. Most workers are ordered to stay home, with exceptions including health care workers; police, fire and other emergency responders; and utility providers such as electricians, plumbers, and sanitation workers.
...
The is the first to direct people to stay at home as much as possible and avoid even small social interactions. On Friday, Santa Clara County banned all gatherings of people 35 and under. “I thought that announcement was hard, this one is exponentially harder,” [Dr. Sara Cody, health officer for Santa Clara County] said.[/i]

[QUOTE=ewmayer;539878]Trump is of course doing his usual mix of NYC RE wheeler-dealer, pro wrasslin heel and carnival barker, but it seems there is no lack of "doh!" company among the leaders of fellow western nations:

[URL="https://www.politico.eu/article/coronavirus-europe-incompetence-pandemic/"]Coronavirus: The incompetence pandemic[/URL] | POLITICO[/QUOTE]
Welcome to the fog of war.
Fear of public speaking alone typically knocks several IQ points off any normal person nearest a microphone, in real time. (I took a class years ago where taking turns at the mic was common in a crowd of ~200, and the facilitator could see at certain points the person at the mic was not getting a concept while the audience did and became restless and impatient, and the facilitator stopped the action briefly to remind us of the invisible IQ-reduction cloud that centers around a microphone) And that was for far far lower stakes.

[QUOTE=kriesel;539886]Welcome to the fog of war.
Fear of public speaking alone typically knocks several IQ points off any normal person nearest a microphone, in real time. (I took a class years ago where taking turns at the mic was common in a crowd of ~200, and the facilitator could see at certain points the person at the mic was not getting a concept while the audience did and became restless and impatient, and the facilitator stopped the action briefly to remind us of the invisible IQ-reduction cloud that [color=red][b]centers around[/b][/color] a microphone) And that was for far far lower stakes.[/QUOTE]
Points off for dreadful illiterism!

Also, the notion does not explain [i]Il Duce[/i]'s penchant for idiocy via tweet.

As of this evening:
total confirmed cases 181584, deaths 7139, recovered 78956 worldwide;
deaths/(deaths+recovered) = 7139/(7139+78956) = 0.0829 = 8.29%
deaths/cases = 7139/181584 = .0393 = 3.93%
That's a case increase rate of 181584/167444 = 1.0844 ratio per day

US cases 4661, 85 deaths, 17 recovered;
on 3/14 it was 2175, 46, 12. sqrt(4661/2175) = 1.464 ratio per day. Yikes.

Case count is still a small fraction of total population, so little effect of saturation would be present.

[url]https://campustechnology.com/articles/2020/03/05/johns-hopkins-dashboard-maps-global-coronavirus-cases.aspx[/url]