Predict "M51"
 

With M50 found and only the official announcement awaiting, let's guess M51 (specifically, the next, currently unknown, Mersenne Prime yet to be noticed by a human.)

[B]THE RULES OF THE GAME:[/B][list=1][*][COLOR=DarkRed]Post your guess here, [B]no[/B] PM'ing.[/COLOR][*][COLOR=Olive]Your guess [B]must include a prime number[/B] (we are guessing the exponent) and/or date of discovery. No ranges, they may be ignored (or we may take the worst case of the range as the choice.) [/COLOR][*][COLOR=Orange]You can [B]not[/B] guess a number (or date) that has already been guessed.[/COLOR][*] If you guess a number that has known factor, at the time you posted, your guess will be ignored. It can have a 'composite' LL or PRP status (pending a recheck), but not a factor.[*][COLOR=DarkOrchid]If there is a tie (i.e. 2 posts are equally close and meet all other rules), the [B]first[/B] post gets it.[/COLOR][*][COLOR=Sienna]You may post 3 guesses (for each number and date). If all exponents up to your number have had a first time test (or DC), you may select another, after a 60 day wait. Same (60 day wait) for date predictions that have passed.[/COLOR][*][COLOR=DarkSlateGray]All guesses received within the 48 hours before M51 is reported are [B]hereby disqualified[/B] (to prevent cheating). This disqualification period will extend through to the time that a person reports to the forum that a candidate prime has been noticed. When that happens all guessing is closed.[/COLOR][*][COLOR=DarkOrange]The discoverer of M51 (not the 'noticer') will have all guesses posted more than 30 hours after they were assigned the expo that is reported to be prime [B]hereby disqualified.[/B][/COLOR][*][COLOR=RoyalBlue]If the prime that is reported fails the rechecks, those disqualified in 7 and 8 will be restored.[/COLOR][*]For the sake of this game, we will use the date that the prime is reported to the PrimeNet server as the date. This may differ from the officially reported discovery date.[/list]
All previous guesses from other threads must be specifically restated.
Absurd guesses may be ignore it any statistical reports or graphs.
Rules may be clarified later. New rules for the next game may be suggested in this thread.

[COLOR="Red"][FONT="Arial Black"]GAME ON![/FONT][/COLOR]

110691517
6-19-2022
(optimistic, I know)

282,362,693

March 3, 2025

85833733 2018-11-15
98760853 2020-04-20
115218151 2022-07-01

I'll redo my guess from the M50 thread:

99116189
2019-11-28

(2^83018113) -1
June, 9th 2018
somewhere in that range .....

[QUOTE=GP2;475924]On average we can expect the exponent of the next Mersenne prime to be [URL="https://primes.utm.edu/notes/faq/NextMersenne.html"]about 1.47576 times larger[/URL] than the previous one. [/QUOTE]

So we would expect the exponent of GIMPS' sixteenth prime to be around 636 million...

[CODE]
1257787 (last Slowinski prime)
1856192
2739294
4042540
5965819
8804116
12992763
19174200
28296517
41758868
61626067
90945284
134213412
198066786
292299040
431363231
636588601
[/CODE]

...or maybe we're just awfully lucky!

99,999,703

April 3, 2023

344587487, 2025-07-15

I know it's probably too large to be M51 proper, but it'll be M51(?) if it's the next one discovered ;)

93,939,421
16 December 2021

[URL="http://www.mersenne.ca/exponent/85021099"]85021099[/URL]
in mid december 2019
M49 was found on late december 2015/early january 2016 so lets hope for the same short delay