[QUOTE=Dr Sardonicus;535345]My assessment? I guess that means the sanctions aren't working.[/QUOTE]My assessment? Hardly anyone has more than half a clue as to what is going on.

About the "first missile" I seem to remember having read something about a warning shot... I'm afraid I'm too lazy to find the source.

Jacob

[QUOTE=S485122;535375]About the "first missile" I seem to remember having read something about a warning shot... I'm afraid I'm too lazy to find the source.

Jacob[/QUOTE]
That is an interesting idea. One which I'd not heard or thought of before. In fact, I have seen very little mention of any missile other than the one which destroyed the plane. I only became aware of the "first missile" concept in the last few days; and I like to think that I have pretty wide-ranging sources, though I encounter some stuff that makes me cringe. I do try to compare reports, though sometimes to look for outliers, rather than the consensus view.

[QUOTE=S485122;535375]About the "first missile" I seem to remember having read something about a warning shot... I'm afraid I'm too lazy to find the source.[/QUOTE]
Earlier in this thread, Iran's missile strike on the US air base in Iraq was described as a "shot across the bow." Maybe that's what you're thinking of.

The notion of firing an AA missile as a "warning shot" at an airplane in flight -- especially a commercial airliner -- makes absolutely no sense. AA missiles aren't warning devices.

The way to warn a plane -- especially a civilian aircraft -- that it needs to change course, is by radio, from whichever ATC is objecting. If that doesn't work, the next step is fighter jets.

U.S. posture in the Middle-East: preparing for disaster
 

-by The Saker

[URL]http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/52931.htm[/URL]

[QUOTE]
Turns out that Trump and the Pentagon were lying. Again. This time about the true impact of the Iranian counter-strike on US forces in Iraq. First they claimed that there were no injured U.S. personnel, only to [URL="https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2020/jan/24/pentagon-34-us-troops-had-brain-injuries-from-iran/"] eventually have to fess up that 34 soldiers had suffered traumatic brain injury[/URL] (which Trump “re-classified” as a “headache”). Then they had to admit that it was not really 34, but [URL="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/pentagon-now-50-service-members-suffered-brain-injuries/story?id=68598126"] actually 50[/URL]!
According to some sources, not all U.S. personnel were hiding in bunkers and some were deployed to defend the base perimeter. Whatever may be the case, this adds yet another indication that the Iranian counter-strike was much more robust than originally reported by the Empire. In fact, Iranian sources indicate that following the strike, a number of wounded casualties were flown to Israel, Kuwait and Germany. Again, we will probably never find out the full truth about what happened that night, but two things are now certain:
[LIST=1][*]The Iranian attack was extremely effective and it is undeniable that all the US/NATO/Israeli forces in the region are now exposed like sitting ducks waiting for the next Iranian strike.[*]Uncle Shmuel has had to dramatically under-report the real extent and nature of the Iranian counter-strike.[/LIST] Now, let’s be clear about the quality of the warning the U.S. personnel had. We now know at the very least the following warnings were received:
[LIST=1][*]Warning through the Iraqi government (whom the Iranians did brief about their intentions).[*]Warning through the Swiss authorities (who represent U.S. interests in Iran and whom the Iranian did brief about their intentions).[*]Warning through the [URL="https://www.foxnews.com/world/us-military-iran-iraq-missile-attack-warning-officials"] US reconnaissance/intelligence capabilities[/URL] on the ground, air and space.[/LIST] And yet, in spite of these almost ideal conditions (from the point of view of defense), we now see that not a single Iranian missile was intercepted, that the missiles all landed with very high accuracy, that the U.S. base itself suffered extensive damage (including destroyed helicopters and drones) and that there were scores of injured personnel (see [URL="https://thesaker.is/analysis-of-the-iranian-missile-strikes-on-ayn-al-asad-airbase/"] this article[/URL] for a detailed discussion of the post-attack imagery).

If we look at this strike as primarily a “proof of concept” operation, then it becomes pretty clear that on the Iranian side what was proven was a superb degree of accuracy and robust ballistic missile capability, whereas on the U.S. side the only thing this strike did was to prove that the U.S. forces in the region are all extremely vulnerable to Iranian missile attack. Just imagine if the Iranians had wanted to maximize U.S. casualties and if they had given no warning of any kind – what would the tally be then?! What if the Iranians had targeted, say, fuel and ammo dumps, buildings where U.S. personnel lived, industrial facilities (including CENTCOM’s key logistic nodes), ports or even airfields? Can you imagine the kind of hell the Iranians would have unleashed against basically unprotected facilities?!

Still dubious?

[/QUOTE]

More on PS752
 

As has appeared all over creation, e.g. [url=https://apnews.com/940f1abd51a7389eb2cf36f4ae3feb25]here[/url], Ukraine has published transcripts of a recording of a conversation (in Farsi) between a pilot and Iranian ATC at the time PS752 was shot down. Ukraine's President Zelinskiy and the head of Iran's investigation team have vouched for the recording's legitimacy. In it, a pilot reports seeing "an explosion" and a "very big light." ATC then tries to make contact with PS752 without success.

Zelinskiy has renewed Ukraine's demand that the "black boxes" be sent to Ukraine for analysis. The Iranians are throwing a hissy fit about the recording being made public. The head of Iran's investigation says, "This action by the Ukrainians makes us not want to give them any more evidence."

Following up on a link from the Saker post above. This is detailed analysis of satellite imagery of Ayn Al Asad Airbase, post strike.
[URL]https://thesaker.is/analysis-of-the-iranian-missile-strikes-on-ayn-al-asad-airbase/[/URL]
Even granting some misses on (hypothetical) targets, the accuracy of these missiles is hard to deny.
[QUOTE]Several sources in the past several days have analyzed the Iranian missile strikes on US forces at the Ayn Al Asad Airbase which took place more than two weeks ago on the 8th of January 2020 as a retaliation for the US assassination of the Iranian general Qassem Sulaimani. The reports have focused on several topics and methods ranging from satellite image interpretation, videos of missile launches and incoming missile strikes to analysis of on-site photos of (unexploded) Iranian missiles in and around the targeted airbases in Iraq.

In this analysis we will look closer at the satellite imagery to give us more insight on what happened at the Ayn Al Asad Airbase and to help us answer some questions like what kind of missiles did the Iranians use, what kind of targets did the Iranians aim for (or destroy) and what kind of information can we derive in terms of accuracy of the Iranian missiles.

It is clear, even prior to conducting any analysis, that the Iranian missiles obviously targeted individual structures with a high rate of accuracy. In this analysis we look at accuracy in terms of how far the missiles landed from their targets. Since the Iranians did not make public the targets they wanted to hit or destroy, we will have to assume that the individual missiles were targeting the actual structures they destroyed or the nearest structures to their impact locations. Another possibility is that the Iranians deliberately struck areas near or outside some of the targets. We will consider both scenarios.

A term often used in precision guided munitions (artillery shells, smart-bombs, missiles, etc.) is the circular error probability (CEP). This is when a circle is drawn around 50 % of the targets that land on a single aim point. This value is not derived from actual warfare statistics but from weapons testing or claims from the weapons manufacturer. Also important to note is that the CEP accuracy is tested by firing the same type of missile many times at a single target instead of directing the same type of missile at multiple independent targets. We will attempt to derive our own statistics from the small sample size of missile strikes at the airbase. This analysis is also a follow up on the very interesting article posted by The Saker which also assessed the initial satellite images made available online of the Ayn Al Asad Airbase strikes, see here [URL]https://thesaker.is/the-anglozionist-empire-vs-iran-a-discussion-of-the-recent-events/[/URL] .
[/QUOTE]

Israeli jets bomb Damascus suburbs, use commercial flights as human shields
 

[url]https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/02/passenger-plane-narrowly-escaped-israeli-attack-syria-russia-200207065456327.html[/url]

“The A320 with 172 passengers on board made an emergency landing in Russia-controlled Khmeimim Air Base after Syria’s air defence nearly hit it because of Israel’s air raids.”

Imagine if the Deplorable Russkies or Evil Eye-Ray-Nians had pulled such a stunt, it would be all over the MSM and quickly followed by economic sanctions and/or military-strike retaliation.

[QUOTE=ewmayer;537021][url]https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/02/passenger-plane-narrowly-escaped-israeli-attack-syria-russia-200207065456327.html[/url]

“The A320 with 172 passengers on board made an emergency landing in Russia-controlled Khmeimim Air Base after Syria’s air defence nearly hit it because of Israel’s air raids.”

Imagine if the Deplorable Russkies or Evil Eye-Ray-Nians had pulled such a stunt, it would be all over the MSM and quickly followed by economic sanctions and/or military-strike retaliation.[/QUOTE]I read [url]https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51411860[/url] yesterday.

Perhaps the Beeb is no longer part of the MSM.

[QUOTE=xilman;537064]I read [url]https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51411860[/url] yesterday.

Perhaps the Beeb is no longer part of the MSM.[/QUOTE]
The story was also covered yesterday by the New York Times and the Washington Post.

What [i]I[/i] find interesting about the story is, that although it was a Syrian airliner (Cham Wing Airlines 6Q514) and was diverted by Damascus ATC, it's the Russians who are doing the talking.

[QUOTE=xilman;537064]I read [url]https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51411860[/url] yesterday.

Perhaps the Beeb is no longer part of the MSM.[/QUOTE]

Thanks - Of course the pro-Israel bias shines through, in terms of giving-the-benefit-of-the-doubt at every turn: "alleged Israeli attack", and e.g.
[quote]The US Treasury sanctioned Cham Wings in December 2016 for allegedly transporting fighters and military equipment in support of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

Iranian Gen Qassem Soleimani arrived in Iraq from Damascus on a Cham Wings flight shortly before he was killed in a US air strike last month, according to Reuters news agency.[/quote]
Uh, first of all, the "transporting fighters and military equipment in support of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad" -- you mean regular military operations by the country's armed forces, in-country? When was that a sanctionable offense? Have those forces attacked neighboring countries, as Israel is doing 24/7?

Re. Soleimani, the Beeb chooses the most anodyne possible framing - first you paint the airline as some kind of illegal jihadist-supporting pipeline (in fact all the jihadists in Syria are being supported by the West and Turkey), then "killed in a US air strike". Uh, Soleimani had arrived in Iraq on an OFFICIAL DIPLOMATIC MISSION when he was ASSASSINATED by the US.

And of course the Beeb goes on to quote the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which is in reality an anti-Assad regime-change shill-blogger operating out of the UK, with similar credibility as the White Helmets and Bellingcat.

[QUOTE=Dr Sardonicus;537072]The story was also covered yesterday by the New York Times and the Washington Post.

What [i]I[/i] find interesting about the story is, that although it was a Syrian airliner (Cham Wing Airlines 6Q514) and was diverted by Damascus ATC, it's the Russians who are doing the talking.[/QUOTE]

Maybe because it was their air defense system the Israelis are trying to evade?