I see the Admin -- and others -- are now touting the theory that the Ukraine jet that crashed near Tehran the other day was brought down by an Iranian missile. If that turns out to be what happened, it would be a dreadful mistake, full of historical irony. But I am more than a bit circumspect about declaring the case solved. Good heavens, the investigation has hardly begun.

It is clear that the crash was unusual, and almost certainly involved a catastrophic failure. According to Iran's investigators, witnesses reported the plane was engulfed in flames while it was still in the air. But the flight crew did not issue a Mayday or declare an emergency. The plane seemed to have started to turn back, but, [url=https://apnews.com/2a253e68d45381f16b89edc5cc45bba1]according to the Iranians[/url], the pilot lost control:[quote]Immediately after the crash Qassem Biniaz, a spokesman for Iran's Road and Transportation Ministry, said it appeared a fire erupted in one of its engines and the pilot lost control of the plane, according to the state-run IRNA news agency.[/quote]

There are two reasonably likely explanations for the lack of a distress call. One is, the crew was so engaged in trying to regain control, they simply couldn't radio in. Another is, the plane had lost power. The second possibility would, of course, explain both the loss of control and the lack of a distress call.

The 737-800 is a twin-engine plane, and is supposed to be able to fly -- even to take off - safely with only one engine working. And this flight was well off the ground, since reports say it disappeared from radar when it went below 8000 feet.

It is certainly possible that one of the engines did not merely stop working, but suffered a catastrophic failure and disintegrated, causing enough damage to make the plane impossible to fly, and possibly causing the power to fail.

A missile could certainly destroy an engine -- especially a heat-seeking missile.

But it is not the only possibility. Some news stories also say the plane had undergone maintenance just 2 days prior to the accident. Of course, this could suggest that a mechanical failure was unlikely, but there is another possibility. Sometimes maintenance crews make mistakes. And sometimes these mistakes can result in disaster. On May 25, 1979, American Airlines Flight 191, a DC-10, crashed shortly after takeoff from O'Hare Airport. An engine actually fell off in flight, and the hydraulic lines for that wing were severed. It was the deadliest plane crash ever to have happened in the USA -- 271 people on the plane and 2 people on the ground died.

The crash turned out to have been caused by improperly done maintenance around 8 weeks previously.

So, I am leery of making pronouncements that it was a missile at this point.

[QUOTE=xilman;534698]The entire over-developed world is mostly responsible for anthropogenic global warming. IMAO anyway. China, India, [I]et al.[/I] are just playing catch-up some 250 years after the UK started the game.[/QUOTE]Anthrogenic climate change is older than that. Glass manufacturing was an early contributor.

[QUOTE="Glass: A short history" by David Whitehouse]Despite the perfection of colourless glass for lenses, most late medieval glass produced in central and northern Europe was made of green ‘forest glass’. This was made in small glasshouses located in forests, which provided a convenient source of fuel and potash, the flux which lowered the temperature at which sand melts. The repertoire of forest glass consists mainly of vessels for drinking... and bottles for pouring or storing small quantities of liquid.
....
Stoking furnaces and making potash consumed trees on a scale that alarmed the authorities, who were already anxious because another industry made even greater demands on the resources of Europe’s forests. As the population grew and cities expanded, the construction industry flourished and required timber on an unprecedented scale. Something had to be done, and ¡n the fourteenth and fifteenth centuries the consumption of wood was controlled. In the forests of the Spessart Mountains in Germany, regulations limited the quantities of glass that could be produced. In England, the problem reached crisis proportions, when the navy feared that deforestation would make it impossible to find timber for building ships. In 1615, by Royal Proclamation, glassmakers were prohibited from burning wood and compelled to use coal instead.[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=Dr Sardonicus;534710]I see the Admin -- and others -- are now touting the theory that the Ukraine jet that crashed near Tehran the other day was brought down by an Iranian missile. If that turns out to be what happened, it would be a dreadful mistake, full of historical irony. But I am more than a bit circumspect about declaring the case solved. Good heavens, the investigation has hardly begun.
[/QUOTE]
I share and applaud your reservations at this time. Another possibility, if this was a shootdown, is that there are several parties, not all of them state actors, in the region who would love to bring the wrath of the Great Orange Satan down upon the Iranians via a Stinger, or whatever anti-aircraft missile might be available to, say, ISIS fellow travelers.

It would make negative sense for official Iran to have committed such an act at this time. Their style tends toward revenge serve cold, anyway. I've heard today that the missile attacks on US bases in Iraq were "demonstrations." Iran has said that killing Americans was not their intent. I take more as "we're here, and we [U]can[/U] hit you."

[QUOTE=kladner;534726]I share and applaud your reservations at this time. Another possibility, if this was a shootdown, is that there are several parties, not all of them state actors, in the region who would love to bring the wrath of the Great Orange Satan down upon the Iranians via a Stinger, or whatever anti-aircraft missile might be available to, say, ISIS fellow travelers.

It would make negative sense for official Iran to have committed such an act at this time. Their style tends toward revenge serve cold, anyway. I've heard today that the missile attacks on US bases in Iraq were "demonstrations." Iran has said that killing Americans was not their intent. I take more as "we're here, and we [U]can[/U] hit you."[/QUOTE]

Hmm, I hadn't thought of someone [i]else[/i] shooting down the plane [i]deliberately[/i], but I suppose it is possible. The Russian TOR ("top", torus) is a short-range missile, with a larger warhead (15 kg vs 10 kg) than the stinger. I'm not sure either type of missile would cause a commercial airliner to just fall out of the sky.

If the parties you mention had stingers or similar missiles, have they used them in the war? I haven't heard about any such thing. If they have the things but haven't used them up to now, I would wonder why not.

I mentioned Iran's obvious restraint in its missile attack in [url=https://www.mersenneforum.org/showpost.php?p=534671&postcount=613]this post[/url].[quote]I also note, WRT the missiles Iran fired at our bases in Iraq: From the satellite image of Ain Asad Air Base, it appears that those missiles can be targeted [i]very[/i] precisely. I'm sure that this was part of the message Iran was delivering with that attack. I also note that, rather than our precautions and warning systems, there were no human casualties because Iran went to considerable effort to avoid inflicting them, both in their choice of targets, and in warning non-US foreigners who might be in harm's way.
<snip>
I also note that, while Iran's [i]direct[/i] response to our killing of Soleimani may be finished, they may well do more through their proxies.[/quote] Maybe that's where you heard about it
:-D

I think it is entirely possible an Iranian air defense missile did the damage. If so, I'm sure it was a tragic mistake, a misidentification, an itchy trigger finger -- a screwup, not the deliberate shooting down of an airliner. If that's what happened, the Iranians know it, and I would advise them to make a clean breast of it. Any hedging on allowing the investigation to proceed normally will look very bad.

BTW there is a video purporting to show the shoot down.

[QUOTE]If the parties you mention had stingers or similar missiles, have they used them in the war? I haven't heard about any such thing. If they have the things but haven't used them up to now, I would wonder why not.[/QUOTE]Excellent question. one could hypothesize about some canny plotter who save a few for some really special moment. But that's just a fantasy.

For all I know, Iran did shoot it down. Or some rogue element trying to embarrass the leadership, or please his foreign Intel masters did it.

We still don't know if it was a missile, though the fireball coming down could suggest that. Perhaps something to detonate fuel tanks on one side could look like that. Something planted in the plane's structure implies a much more complicated game. You mentioned its recent servicing, which is a time something could be placed very carefully. This would imply Intel services involvement, to me.


EDIT: Wanna bet that Tehran is always in the footprint of more than one spy satellite? Interested and capable possibilities are multiple. Some people might have some pretty sharp pictures, even at night, especially if a missile plume is involved.

[QUOTE=kladner;534738]EDIT: Wanna bet that Tehran is always in the footprint of more than one spy satellite? Interested and capable possibilities are multiple. Some people might have some pretty sharp pictures, even at night, especially if a missile plume is involved.[/QUOTE]
Oh, I'm sure Iran is always under satellite surveillance. And I'll bet that surveillance of all types was maximized when [i]Il Duce[/i] decided to launch the attack that killed Soleimani.

After that attack, [i]Il Duce[/i] said the following:

[quote]Iran is talking very boldly about targeting certain USA assets as revenge for our ridding the world of their terrorist leader who had just killed an American, & badly wounded many others, not to mention all of the people he had killed over his lifetime, including recently hundreds of Iranian protesters. He was already attacking our Embassy, and preparing for additional hits in other locations. Iran has been nothing but problems for many years. Let this serve as a WARNING that if Iran strikes any Americans, or American assets, we have targeted 52 Iranian sites (representing the 52 American hostages taken by Iran many years ago), some at a very high level & important to Iran & the Iranian culture, and those targets, and Iran itself, WILL BE HIT VERY FAST AND VERY HARD. The USA wants no more threats![/quote]

So, when the Iranians decided to go ahead with their missile strike, they would have been expecting US military retaliation; or, even if discounting the threat because [i]Il Duce[/i] has a long record of making threats and not carrying them out, they would have [i]prepared[/i] for a retaliatory strike. Their air defenses would have been on hair-trigger alert. A perfect situation for a momentary screwup to lead to disaster.

I don't know what all happens when a TOR missile is fired from an AA station, but I imagine some of the things that happen would be picked up by our surveillance -- targeting systems "lighting up," military communications, and the missile launch itself.

The Iranians' statements are making them look worse and worse. In the first place, they were claiming to know an engine had caught fire and the pilot had lost control, immediately after the plane crashed. How could they possibly have known that? Well, I can think of [i]one[/i] way.

The Iranians are sticking with their claim that the plane crashed due to a "technical malfunction" (which they couldn't possibly know) and denied that [i]any[/i] missile could [i]possibly[/i] have hit the plane. Iran's head of civil aviation was quoted by the ISNA News Agency as saying Thursday that

[quote]scientifically, it is impossible that a missile hit the Ukrainian plane, and such rumors are illogical.[/quote]
:bs meter:

[QUOTE=Dr Sardonicus;534764][QUOTE]
scientifically, it is impossible that a missile hit the Ukrainian plane, and such rumors are illogical.[/QUOTE]:bs meter:[/QUOTE]I think I found their spokesman.
[attach]21594[/attach].

Well, Iran did it.
[url]https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/11/iran-admits-shooting-down-ukrainian-airliner-unintentionally[/url]

Good call.
 

[url=https://apnews.com/21f4a92a2dfbc38581719664bdf6f38e]Under pressure, Iran admits it shot down jetliner by mistake[/url]

[quote]TEHRAN, Iran (AP) — Iran's Revolutionary Guard on Saturday acknowledged that it accidentally shot down the Ukrainian jetliner that crashed earlier this week, killing all 176 aboard, after the government had repeatedly denied Western accusations that it was responsible.

The plane was shot down early Wednesday, hours after Iran launched a ballistic missile attack on two military bases housing U.S. troops in Iraq in retaliation for the killing of Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani in an American airstrike in Baghdad. No one was wounded in the attack on the bases.

Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the head of the Guard's aerospace division, said his unit accepts "full responsibility" for the shootdown. In an address broadcast by state TV, he said that when he learned about the downing of the plane, "I wished I was dead."

He said Guard forces ringing the capital had beefed up their air defenses and were at the "highest level of readiness," fearing that the U.S. would retaliate. He said an officer made the "bad decision" to open fire on the plane after mistaking it for a cruise missile.

Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, expressed his "deep sympathy" to the families of the victims and called on the armed forces to "pursue probable shortcomings and guilt in the painful incident."[/quote]Thank you, General Hajizadeh. You have imposed order in place of the chaos of speculation, accusation, and recrimination surrounding this tragedy. You have ended your government's foolish efforts to deny the truth of what happened. You have ended any prospect of the government impeding the investigation in order to conceal the truth. The friends and families of those killed can at least have a sense of certainly of what happened to their loved ones.

The officer who gave the order to fire wasn't furthering any diabolical plot or agenda. He made a mistake. He's going to have to live with the consequences for the rest of his life.

One good thing that may come of the tragedy of Flight 752, is that it will remind all concerned of the obvious truth that there is nothing like being on a war footing, to turn a momentary error of judgement into a major disaster, and urge them to choose a better path.

Good on the Iranians for doing the right thing here, and also for showing great restraint in their shot-across-the-bow retaliatory missile attacks on US bases in Iraq. They further say they will prosecute the people involved in the accidental shootdown ... now, see, if they followed the US' lead in such matters, they would simply pay some money to make the victims' claims go away, while admitting no fault, and awarding all the people involved in the shootdown with [url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655#Post-tour_of_duty_medals]medals and ribbons for their heroic service[/url]:
[quote]Despite the mistakes made in the downing of [Iran Air 655], the men of USS Vincennes were awarded Combat Action Ribbons for completion of their tours in a combat zone. The air-warfare coordinator on duty received the Navy Commendation Medal, but The Washington Post reported in 1990 that the awards were for his entire tour from 1984 to 1988 and for his actions relating to the surface engagement with Iranian gunboats. In 1990, Rogers was awarded the Legion of Merit “for exceptionally meritorious conduct in the performance of outstanding service as commanding officer […] from April 1987 to May 1989.” The award was given for his service as the commanding officer of Vincennes from April 1987 to May 1989. The citation made no mention of the downing of Iran Air 655.[/quote]

There was actually a contingent of news media aboard the [i]Vincennes[/i] when it shot down Iran Air 655. The [i]Vincennes[/i], being closest to the scene, was the first to reach it in response to the distress call that immediately went out.

The crew, which had been jubilant over destroying what they had thought was an attacking F-14, stopped cheering. They realized what they had actually done.

While the mistake they made is understandable -- and eerily similar to the mistake the Iranian AA crew made with Flight 752 -- the same can [i]not[/i] be said for the actions of US officialdom following the disaster.

While it is true there was no delay in admitting the fact that the [i]Vincennes[/i] had mistakenly shot down the airliner (the news media was in attendance, after all), the subsequent US Navy investigation and later official actions only served to deepen Iranian suspicions that the attack had been deliberate. While the Navy investigation showed that claims that Iran Air had departed from its route [a claim also made of Flight 752] and had been descending were wrong, and that the pilot had no reason to be monitoring the frequencies the [i]Vincennes[/i] broadcast warnings over, and had no reason to respond to a transmission over civilian frequencies regarding an F-14, it failed to detect the fact that the ship's Captain had [i]violated orders[/i] to stay where he had been, and that the [i]Vincennes[/i] was in Iranian territorial waters when it shot down Flight 655. The captain had previously taken the ship into Omani waters without seeking permission, prompting the angry Omanis to order the ship to leave its waters.

Iranian ATC had failed to warn the pilot of 655 of ongoing hostilities, which it had done on previous such occasions. Such a warning might have prompted the pilot to monitor the frequencies on which the initial warnings were broadcast.

While the mistakes that led to the destruction of Iran Air 655 may be understandable, it takes a lot of comedy to laugh off the ship's captain violating orders -- especially in the process of deciding to hand out commendations. This may have been handled by the Pentagon's Chief of Career Rehabilitation, Miss Agnes Day.

It may be indicative of the disarray in the Iranian government that it took [i]three days[/i] to officially admit the bare fact that Flight 752 had been shot down by one of their own AA missiles. But the fact that it did take so long has angered many Iranians -- and rightly so, IMO.

In this regard, I note that as late as Friday, Russia's deputy foreign minister Sergey Ryabkov said in an interview in Tokyo that there was "no reason" to accuse Iran of shooting down the plane.

Am I to believe the Russians didn't know what had happened by then? Or, if they did, that they didn't tell their Deputy Foreign Minister? Or did they perhaps think the shooting down of a civilian airliner by a Russian-made AA missile could simply be stonewalled indefinitely? I can't imagine why they would think such a thing. :whistle:

I also note that Iran has previously refused to hand over the "black box" data recorders to the plane's manufacturer as would normally be done, because "We don't trust the Americans," and said they would analyze the data themselves. In view of their admission, perhaps they will relent. As to analyzing the data, they would be hard-pressed to do it themselves. Iran does not AFAIK possess the kind of lab needed to do it. The work could be done [i]in[/i] Iran, but would require a suitable lab to be brought there. The French could do it.

Meanwhile, I think it would be a fine, fine gesture if Iran were officially to acknowledge, in the light of the present tragedy, that the shooting down of Iran Air 655 may not have been deliberate after all.