US Mideast Menace Goes Nuclear -Finian Cunnigham
 

[URL]https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2019/06/17/us-mideast-menace-goes-nuclear/[/URL]
[QUOTE]US media reports have claimed that China is helping to expand Saudi Arabia’s ballistic missile arsenal. The implication from the US media is that Beijing is recklessly stoking tensions in the Middle East between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

China has denied it is involved in supplying the Saudis with ballistic technology. However, various US “experts” are cited by American [URL="https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/04/trump-admin-approved-nuclear-energy-transfers-to-saudis-after-khashoggi-killing.html"]media[/URL] claiming that satellite images indicate that alleged ballistic missile sites in Saudi Arabia appear to be sourced from China.

Given the bombed-out credibility of US media, as demonstrated by a myriad of subjects, from alleged Iraqi weapons of mass destruction to hysterical, baseless claims about “Russian meddling” in elections, the watchword here is very much “skepticism” towards American media reports.

What seems immediately incongruous about the purported Chinese ballistic missiles to Saudi Arabia is the fact that Beijing has otherwise shown itself to be a stalwart ally of Iran in recent years. China is a major importer of Iranian oil as well as investor in exploring Iran’s vast natural gas reserves. Looking to the future, China and Iran view each other as strategic partners for mutual development. Iran has embraced the Chinese “Belt and Road Initiative” linking Eurasian economies, and will be a pivotal player in paving the new silk trade routes between Asia and Europe.

After the Trump administration unilaterally trashed the 2015 international nuclear accord with Iran, China has, along with Russia, been a staunch advocate for upholding the treaty. China continues to buy Iranian exports of crude oil despite Washington’s threats of punitive sanctions.[/QUOTE]

China supplying ballistic missiles to the Saudis? I'm shocked -- SHOCKED!
 

It isn't exactly news that the Saudis have been buying ballistic missiles from China. For example, this [url=http://defense-update.com/20140502_saudi-arabia-unveils-part-strategic-missile-force-deterrent-move-iran.html]May 2, 2014 [i]Defense Update[/i] article[/url] says,
[quote]Saudi Arabia publicly displayed its Dong Feng-3 (DF-3) ballistic missiles for the first time in a 29 April 2014 on a parade that marked the end of the largest ever military exercise held in the kingdom. The military exercise and official display of the ballistic missiles, which were acquired secretly from China in 1987 were clear signals Riyadh is directing to both Washington, Tehran and Baghdad. Riyadh acquired the missiles from China during the height of the ‘city war’ phase of the Iran-Iraq, after Washington refused selling short range ballistic missiles to the kingdom.

The DF-3 is deployed with the Chinese strategic missile force since 1971. According to IHS Janes Defense Weekly, Saudi Arabia is estimated to have acquired at least 30 missiles. The missiles are based in underground shelters, There were unconfirmed reports that Saudi Arabia has been upgrading its strategic missile force since 2007, introducing DF-21 (CCS-5) ballistic missiles, also carrying conventional warheads. The advanced DF-21 has a shorter range of 1,100 miles (about 1,700 km) but higher accuracy, which makes it more useful as a conventional weapon. Carried in a Transporter Erector Launcher (TEL) canister it is set to deploy quickly from its underground hideouts and launch within very short time. Its terminal speed is believed to be Mach 10, which makes it highly difficult to engage by missile defense.[/quote]

A [url=https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-cia-helped-saudis-chinese-missile-deal-227283]January 29, 2014 [i]Newsweek[/i] report[/url] had previously said that the Saudis were buying DF 21's:[quote]Aside from technical personnel, among the few CIA officials let in on the deal were the agency's then-number three, Associate Deputy Director Michael Morrell, a longtime Asia hand; John Kringen, then-head of the agency's intelligence directorate; and the CIA's Riyadh station chief, who [i]Newsweek[/i] is not identifying because he remains undercover. Two analysts subsequently traveled to Saudi Arabia, inspected the crates and returned satisfied that the missiles were not designed to carry nukes, says the source, who asked for anonymity in exchange for discussing the still-secret deal.[/quote]

Current reports indicate that [i]Il Duce[/i] & Co. kept intel reports about recent developments from members of Congress who would normally be informed. When they heard about the reports from other sources, they were not happy campers.

This is ALL we need...
 

Iran has claimed to have shot down a US drone, and the US has confirmed the loss of a surveillance drone. The Iranians claim the drone was violating its airspace; the US claims it was in international airspace.

This is [i]just[/i] the kind of thing that could start US and Iranian military forces shooting at each other.

This was not a small, cheap aircraft. The first US confirmation, from some suit, said it was a Northrop Grumman MQ-4C Triton, described thusly:

Length: 47.6 ft (14.5 m)
Wingspan: 130.9 ft (39.9 m)
Height: 15.4 ft (4.7 m)

Unit cost
US $120.689m (FY15)
US $182.378m (inc R&D)

A later report from Centcom said it was a Northrop Grumman RQ-4 Global Hawk, a predecessor aircraft:

Length: 47.6 ft (14.5 m)
Wingspan: 130.9 ft (39.9 m)
Height: 15.3 ft (4.7 m)

Unit cost
US $131.4M (FY13)
US $222.7M (with R&D)

It is interesting how much China has changed. It seems that Iranian crude, and its quality, is very persuasive. Calculations of the balance of great powers must play a role, as well. If nothing else, a big consumer would not want to see adverse price effects which would follow further reductions of Iranian output.

Trump knows that a little war could be handy at reelection times. This is only the buildup. Since Kim has become Donalds best buddy, the only options are Iran or Venezuela.


Btw. There are far too few wars going on to keep the US weapon industry growing. America first!!!

Re: MH17
 

[QUOTE=Nick;496580]As I said, this not a political matter but a criminal justice matter.
Once consequence of that (was this really not obvious?) is that the Joint Investigation Team must identify not countries
but individuals who will be charged.[/QUOTE]
Done. [url=https://www.npr.org/2019/06/20/733995616/four-suspects-named-and-face-murder-charges-in-flight-mh17-shoot-down]4 Suspects Named And Face Murder Charges In Flight MH17 Shootdown[/url][quote]International investigators have accused three Russians and one Ukrainian of taking part in the attack on Malaysia Airlines Flight 17, a passenger plane that was shot down nearly five years ago, killing all 298 people on board. They will face murder charges for their alleged involvement in the tragedy.

The plane left Amsterdam for Kuala Lumpur on July 17, 2014. It crashed over eastern Ukraine, a smoldering wreckage of civilian parts in the midst of a battle between Ukrainian security forces and Russia-back separatists.

[/quote]

Re: Drone shot down
 

Iran's Foreign minister Javad Zarif issued a [url=https://twitter.com/JZarif/status/1141772824086028288]tweet[/url] stating shoot-down coordinates of 25°59'43"N 57°02'25"E. The tweet includes a map with hand-drawn flight route and hand-lettered descriptors. I'm not sure which boundaries the solid red and blue lines indicate, but according to the Iranians' map, the craft was on Iran's side of both lines.

It also claims Iran has recovered wreckage in their waters. I'm not sure what that says about where the drone was when it was hit (assuming they actually have the goods), since the wreckage fell from a very high altitude.

The tweet, however, begins with the incredible phrase[quote]At 00:14 US drone took off from UAE in stealth mode[/quote]The RQ-4 Global Hawk doesn't [i]have[/i] a "stealth mode." It's a large fixed-wing aircraft, designed to fly slowly (cruising speed 357 mph, max speed 391 mph) at high altitudes (around 60,000 feet). It's not a stealth aircraft. There's no problem detecting it on radar. The main problem in shooting it down is reaching its cruising altitude. The fact that Iran has solved that problem (assuming the drone was flying that high when it was hit) has, I'm sure, gotten the attention of US military analysts, if they weren't already aware.

The US DOD offered a map indicating where the craft was shot down, but did [i]not[/i] give precise coordinates (which I'm sure they've got). This omission has gotten [i]my[/i] attention.

Now, it seems that we may have come very close to war. [i]Il Duce[/i] says he'd ordered air strikes on Iran, but called them off after learning they'd kill 150 people. This [i]really[/i] makes me wonder. First -- did he actually give the order? Second, if he did, was it really without first getting an estimate on how many casualties it would inflict? Third, assuming he gave the order, how far along had things gotten when he rescinded it -- for example, were the planes already on their way to their targets when he called things off? If so -- I'm glad he didn't order a missile strike...

Interesting (to me) [URL="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-48718959"]analysis[/URL].

It seems that [i]Il Duce[/i] did indeed order airstrikes on Iran, then later rescinded the order.

I am now not sure the Pentagon [i]didn't[/i] give coordinates of the shoot-down.

A Pentagon map in the Fox News story [url=https://www.foxnews.com/world/pentagon-releases-map-disputing-claim-us-drone-violated-iranian-airspace-irans-version-is-very-different]here[/url] shows the various territorial boundaries, and has an inset with two sets of coordinates -- one, 25:57:27N 55:52:39E in a column headed "ACFT" and the other, 25:57:42N 55:50:22E in a column headed "TST." I'm not sure what those sets of coordinates signify, but they might indicate where the Pentagon says the shoot-down happened. The "ACFT" probably means "aircraft." I'm not sure about the "TST," or the "OFT" in a box at the bottom between the two columns.

The coordinates in the Pentagon map inset are significantly south and west of the shoot-down coordinates 25°59'43"N 57°02'25"E given by Iran.

[url]https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/iran-says-will-take-drone-incident-to-un-to-show-us-lying/ar-AADaTvX[/url]

[url]https://www.algemeiner.com/2019/06/20/israeli-pm-netanyahu-urges-peace-loving-countries-to-back-us-against-iran-after-gulf-drone-shootdown/[/url]

[QUOTE=Dr Sardonicus;519679]Done. [url=https://www.npr.org/2019/06/20/733995616/four-suspects-named-and-face-murder-charges-in-flight-mh17-shoot-down]4 Suspects Named And Face Murder Charges In Flight MH17 Shootdown[/url][/QUOTE]

This strikes me as a version of of the saying about getting a grand jury to indict a ham sandwich: Name a bunch of Russians, who either are or are alleged to be tied to Russian intel, take their resulting "failure to surrender themselves to face justice" as proof of guilt. Case closed!

Here is a [url=http://johnhelmer.net/mh17-prosecution-the-dutch-fire-their-big-guns-the-subjunctive-and-conditional-tenses-plus-ukrainian-secret-service-tapes/]detailed rundown on just how flimsy the charges are[/url]:
[quote]In the anonymous voiceover of a video clip, presented during the June 19 press conference in The Netherlands, the allegation is reported that there was a Russian chain of command for the deployment of a Buk Telar anti-aircraft missile battery of the Russian Army. “It was through this chain that the suspects were able to get heavy military equipment from Russia to the battlefield in eastern Ukraine. And in this way the BUK-Telar of the 53rd brigade could be transported to the agricultural field in Pervomaiskiy and its missile could be fired with terrible consequences.”

Could isn’t the same as did.

The Australian police official at the presentation expressed “faith in the Dutch legal system”. He made no commitment to the Dutch allegations or to the specific claims against the named suspects. He added: “we will also continue the investigation. The step we have taken today gives us the energy to continue. We will not let go. To progress, we are again appealing for witnesses today.”

The Malaysian government representative refused to endorse the allegations which were announced by the Dutch.
...
No evidence was presented of [the suspects'] location at the time of the MH17 crash, nor evidence of their intention, as charged, of “causing the crash of flight MH17” and of “the murder of the 298 persons on board of flight MH17”. The Dutch law cited as the legal basis for the arrest warrants and a trial in court are Articles 168 and 289 of the Dutch Criminal Code. The trial of the allegations has been scheduled for March 9, 2020.

[url=www.legislationline.org/documents/id/20055]Here is the Dutch law[/url]. Note that the two articles require evidence of intention and premeditation to destroy and to kill. The conventional court standard for this evidence in Europe is proof beyond reasonable doubt.

Listen slowly and carefully to the speeches which were made at the [url=https://www.om.nl/onderwerpen/mh17-crash/press-meeting-juni/narrative-conference/]JIT presentation[/url]. No claim can be found in the transcript and recording of evidence of the accused men’s intention and premeditation to attack the MH17.[/quote]
And the still-glaring omissions which the investigative team seems uninterested in, such as the mysterious lack of radar imagery from Ukrainian ATC, and how a passenger jet ended up getting routed into an active combat zone.