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Uncwilly 2019-08-28 20:06

Well Boris is making it exciting.

Dr Sardonicus 2019-08-29 03:07

This has become absolutely grotesque.

Earlier this year (in January and in March), it was Parliament seeking to sideline the PM. Talk about the PM's current move as "an affront to democracy" boggles my mind. The 2016 Brexit referendum was democracy in action. The ensuing Parliamentary debacle may perhaps instead be described as "democracy inaction."

With a [i]very[/i] short timetable, Parliament's options seem to be limited.

Parliament could (in theory) make a law forbidding a "no-deal" Brexit. This would be nothing more than yet another attempt to stall, after Boris Johnson has hit them upside the head with a two-by-four to convey the message, "Time's up!"

It could (in theory) boot Johnson out with a "vote of No Confidence" which would force a general election. In practice, though, this is unlikely.

I haven't heard much talk recently about revoking the Article 50 filing, which is the only practical course of action I can see.

Nick 2019-08-29 07:07

[QUOTE=Uncwilly;524755]Well Boris is making it exciting.[/QUOTE]
Already 98 companies have moved out of Britain because of the way Brexit is being handled, and that is just to the Netherlands.
I don't think the thousands of Brits losing their jobs will find it exciting.

Already people from other European countries who have lived in Britain for decades - often married to British citizens and with children -
are receiving threatening letters from the British government saying they may be detained if they do not "go home".
I don't think they will find this exciting either.

pinhodecarlos 2019-08-29 08:28

Already packing.....

xilman 2019-08-29 09:46

[QUOTE=pinhodecarlos;524780]Already packing.....[/QUOTE]I live ~50% of the year in Spain. I've absolutely no intention of changing that arrangement.

I will be packing in 13 days but only because I'm returning to the UK until later in the year.

Portugal may treat its ex-pats (Brits in Portugal, Portuguese in the UK) but Spain and the UK know that their citizens are so greatly intermingled that they've already agreed to carry on pretty much as now, with the likely exception of having citizens having to pay a small amount of baksheesh every few years to the respective foreign bureaucrats for yet another piece of paper akin to my Spanish NIE.

pinhodecarlos 2019-08-29 11:48

Paul,

I’m being sarcastic. As you I’ll be packing within a week to Crete though.

As you’re aware, if not apologies, M started this June her PhD studies and I’m now managing Measurement and Verification works for Bouygues. Not a chance in the next three years we will be moving abroad. Love living in the U.K. specially visiting Cambridge in a weekly basis. We need all to meet once again with the rest of the gang but this time for something different like making some sport or hiking....

Uncwilly 2019-08-29 17:42

[QUOTE=xilman;524781]I will be packing in 13 days but only because I'm returning to the UK until later in the year.[/QUOTE]I would assume that does not include clothing (except that intend to be used whilst travailing.) This I assume because the climates of the 2 locations don't overlap too much.

xilman 2019-08-29 20:19

[QUOTE=Uncwilly;524802]I would assume that does not include clothing (except that intend to be used whilst travailing.) This I assume because the climates of the 2 locations don't overlap too much.[/QUOTE]You should check your assumptions.

La Palma is a (sub-tropical) oceanic island in a cold oceanic current. Great Britain is a (sub-arctic) oceanic island in a warm oceanic current.

Sea-level England is colder than >750m La Palma but not by that much. We get frosts in Cambridge (one of the coldest parts of England) every winter and occasional light dustings of snow, whereas the air temperature in El Paso rarely falls below 10C. Typical summer maximum temperatures are higher in Cambridge than in El Paso. Even this year, which has been quite exceptional, Cambridge reached 38.7C whereas El Paso managed an unofficial 39C --- a good 10 degrees higher than normal.

Nonetheless in our house in El Paso we have, and use, a log-burning stove, a bottled-gas heater and an electric fan heater to keep warm between November and February.

ewmayer 2019-08-29 23:45

NC's take on the - ribald humor fully intended - "Johnson Gambit":

[url=https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2019/08/brexit-focusing-the-mind.html]Brexit: Focusing the Mind[/url] | naked capitalism
[quote]As much as it appears that Johnson has played a trump card and checkmated his opponents, my take is the reverse: that he actually opened up a new path for at least stalling Brexit and the widespread reaction in the UK, that Johnson’s gambit is an affront to democracy, has given the opposition a new lease on life.
...
Mind you, the odds that the anti-Brexit forces will actually manage to herd cats and come up with a plan and execute it are still remote. Any path that accomplishes even the not-terribly-productive-in-the-long-term aim of just getting an extension still has a lot of moving parts. And anyone who understand cumulative probability knows that even if the odds of success at every step in a multi-step process are high, the resulting odds of success wind up being middling. To put it bluntly, even path of delay face considerable obstacles. But the likelihood of success has gone from virtually nil to low.

My best guess is that it’s too late to change the path to Brexit much, that the most the opposition will be able to pull of is a short extension, say to the end of December, and even that will prove to be a tall order. But as I’ve said before, it would be better if I were proven wrong.[/quote]
This being NC, a lot of good stuff in the comments as well, including some welcome troll-and-disinformation-spreader-dunkings.

garo 2019-08-30 06:35

That’s a very good article Ernst. Note also that financial mergers in my opinion are underestimating the probability of no deal. Most banks have raised the likelihood to 35% or so. I’d be closer to 60.

garo 2019-08-30 09:05

[QUOTE=xilman;524781]I live ~50% of the year in Spain. I've absolutely no intention of changing that arrangement.

I will be packing in 13 days but only because I'm returning to the UK until later in the year.

Portugal may treat its ex-pats (Brits in Portugal, Portuguese in the UK) but Spain and the UK know that their citizens are so greatly intermingled that they've already agreed to carry on pretty much as now, with the likely exception of having citizens having to pay a small amount of baksheesh every few years to the respective foreign bureaucrats for yet another piece of paper akin to my Spanish NIE.[/QUOTE]

Do you have a link to this agreement you speak of? And do you seriously believe that the horribly incompetent and xenophobic UK home office is capable of fulfilling promises being made in their behalf? The UK plans to strip rights conferred through EU membership from Spanish citizens. I find it. Dry hard to believe that Spain will not respond in some fashion.

[URL="https://www.google.com/amp/s/uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUKKCN1QI4HW"]https://www.google.com/amp/s/uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUKKCN1QI4HW[/URL]

For instance, this article states that Spanish measures are conditional on UK doing the same. UK has not promised anything. See this for instance: [URL="https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-immigration-insight/where-do-i-go-eu-citizens-face-legal-limbo-after-decades-in-britain-idUKKCN1VK0CV"]https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-immigration-insight/where-do-i-go-eu-citizens-face-legal-limbo-after-decades-in-britain-idUKKCN1VK0CV[/URL]


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