A scatter plot to bring joy to your hearts.

A very bold guess on the left, and an extremely pessimistic one on the right.

[QUOTE=Brian-E;423200]M(42851777), the 50th Mersenne Prime to be discovered but subsequently known as "M47", found when double-check completes on 19 June 2016.[/QUOTE]
Looks like that won't be happening.....
[QUOTE=Uncwilly;422137][B]THE RULES OF THE GAME:[/B]
5. [COLOR=Sienna]You may post 3 guesses. If all exponents up to your number have had a first time test, you may select another, after a 60 day wait. Same for date predictions.[/COLOR][/list][/QUOTE]
You do have 2 other guesses available.

Hi Math People

My guess today is 9,000,000,001.

Regards

Matt

[QUOTE=Uncwilly;429007]A scatter plot to bring joy to your hearts.[/QUOTE]
Autistic people rock. :)

But sometimes we flap.

[QUOTE=Uncwilly;436555]You do have 2 other guesses available.[/QUOTE]
Thanks.:smile:

One will suffice for now.

M(43580717), the 50th Mersenne Prime to be discovered but subsequently known as "M48", found when double check completes on 7 November 2016.

No poaching please.:smile:

282,362,693

March 3, 2025

118,788,157

August 8th, 2020.

Here's an unofficial list of the guesses so far, with earlier guesses, past dates, and exponents smaller than the first-time test wavefront struck out. (They could still win if they're the closest, either because the new discovery is very close to the wavefront or because the prime is discovered on a double-check.) I counted conditional guesses as ordinary guesses and didn't attempt to enforce the 60-day rule.

[B]firejuggler[/B]
[STRIKE]67750363[/STRIKE]
85650113
2019-01-03

[B]petrw1
[/B]87654349
2017-12-31

[B]Batalov[/B]
110691517
2019-06-19

[B]R. Gerbicz[/B]
[STRIKE]57885161[/STRIKE]
[STRIKE]2013-01-25[/STRIKE]

[b]Uncwilly[/b]
[STRIKE]79399909[/STRIKE]
85000007
[STRIKE]2017-02-13[/STRIKE]
2018-03-14

[B]Phil MjX[/B]
108497131
2019-09-21

[B]Prime95[/B]
134526823
2023-09-19

[B]axn[/B]
[STRIKE]68407583[/STRIKE]
109524881
[STRIKE]2016-02-14[/STRIKE]
2020-11-29

[B]0PolarBearsHere[/B]
99999941
[STRIKE]2016-12-25[/STRIKE]

[B]Brian-E[/B]
[STRIKE]42851777[/STRIKE]
[STRIKE]43580717[/STRIKE]
[STRIKE]2016-06-19[/STRIKE]
[STRIKE]2016-11-07[/STRIKE]

[B]Spherical Cow[/B]
[STRIKE]97219783[/STRIKE]
109721473
[STRIKE]2017-01-11[/STRIKE]

[B]aurashift[/B]
332277943

[B]lavalamp[/B]
92018681
2019-05-10

[B]philmoore[/B]
98335147
2021-12-04

[B]MattcAnderson[/B]
[STRIKE]91234603[/STRIKE]
9000000001
2018-07-01

[B]GP2[/B]
282362693
2025-03-03

[B]masser[/B]
118788157
2020-08-08

[QUOTE=davar55;424836]Instead of inching along...

Who wants to predict M100 ?

The value 100 is not an arbitrary choice, if my
Pythagorean tendencies are valid. So before
anyone overgeneralizes my suggestion,
can we get some discussion of what that
exponent could be? Would it be like (M50)^2?[/QUOTE]

The most careful guess I can make is around 2.1e16, based on our current progress up to 1e8 and standard heuristics beyond that. A 95% confidence interval is 1.4e14 to 7e18. How do these compare to your guesses?

[QUOTE=CRGreathouse;465203]Here's an unofficial list of the guesses so far, with earlier guesses, past dates, and exponents smaller than the first-time test wavefront struck out. (They could still win if they're the closest, either because the new discovery is very close to the wavefront or because the prime is discovered on a double-check.) I counted conditional guesses as ordinary guesses and didn't attempt to enforce the 60-day rule.

[B]firejuggler[/B]
[STRIKE]67750363[/STRIKE]
85650113
2019-01-03

[B]petrw1
[/B]87654349
2017-12-31

[B]Batalov[/B]
110691517
2019-06-19

[B]R. Gerbicz[/B]
[STRIKE]57885161[/STRIKE]
[STRIKE]2013-01-25[/STRIKE]

[b]Uncwilly[/b]
[STRIKE]79399909[/STRIKE]
85000007
[STRIKE]2017-02-13[/STRIKE]
2018-03-14

[B]Phil MjX[/B]
108497131
2019-09-21

[B]Prime95[/B]
134526823
2023-09-19

[B]axn[/B]
[STRIKE]68407583[/STRIKE]
109524881
[STRIKE]2016-02-14[/STRIKE]
2020-11-29

[B]0PolarBearsHere[/B]
99999941
[STRIKE]2016-12-25[/STRIKE]

[B]Brian-E[/B]
[STRIKE]42851777[/STRIKE]
[STRIKE]43580717[/STRIKE]
[STRIKE]2016-06-19[/STRIKE]
[STRIKE]2016-11-07[/STRIKE]

[B]Spherical Cow[/B]
[STRIKE]97219783[/STRIKE]
109721473
[STRIKE]2017-01-11[/STRIKE]

[B]aurashift[/B]
332277943

[B]lavalamp[/B]
92018681
2019-05-10

[B]philmoore[/B]
98335147
2021-12-04

[B]MattcAnderson[/B]
[STRIKE]91234603[/STRIKE]
9000000001
2018-07-01[COLOR="Red"]
M9000000001 has a factor: 14076558001564063 - Program: L5.0x[/COLOR]

[B]GP2[/B]
282362693
2025-03-03

[B]masser[/B]
118788157
2020-08-08[/QUOTE]

[COLOR="Red"]
M9000000001 has a factor: 14076558001564063 - Program: L5.0x[/COLOR]