Officially poaching very old exponents
 

I propose that currently assigned doublechecks below 9 million that have been outstanding for 2 years and at their current rate of progress will not finish within 6 months, be officially poached and reassigned.

Comments? Should the 2 year value be reduced to 1.5 years? 1 year? Other suggested adjustments?

I agree George. In fact I think the threshold should be reduced to 1 year. There are several exponents that have been assigned for between 400 and 700 days.

[QUOTE][i]Originally posted by Prime95 [/i]
[B]I propose that currently assigned doublechecks below 9 million that have been outstanding for 2 years and at their current rate of progress will not finish within 6 months, be officially poached and reassigned.
[/B][/QUOTE]

As currently formulated (2 years), there are hardly any exponents that qualify.

Here are the longest-running double-checks under 10 million (only one of which is greater than 9 million). Running time is the 5th column:

[Edit: [color=red]click on an exponent to show a graph of its progress[/color]

[font=courier new][size=1]
[url=http://opteron.mersenneforum.org/exps/7137989.png]7137989[/url],D ,64,5737723,730.2,-54.3,5.7,11-Sep-03 11:04,09-Nov-01 14:14,S09625,Cel12
[url=http://opteron.mersenneforum.org/exps/7137769.png]7137769[/url],D ,64,4055939,730.2,-45.5,14.5,15-Sep-03 08:58,09-Nov-01 14:09,S09625,Cel14
[url=http://opteron.mersenneforum.org/exps/7251577.png]7251577[/url],D*,64,4035727,702.8,-35.2,4.8,10-Sep-03 15:25,06-Dec-01 23:22,jamesm,D2
[url=http://opteron.mersenneforum.org/exps/7304699.png]7304699[/url],D*,63,3404512,695.3,-56.6,3.4,04-Sep-03 05:46,14-Dec-01 13:44,older,MYLITV
[url=http://opteron.mersenneforum.org/exps/7336607.png]7336607[/url],D ,64,4055040,689.9,29.2,29.2,11-Sep-03 23:34,19-Dec-01 21:57,S60523,CCDA9E7C7
[url=http://opteron.mersenneforum.org/exps/7501867.png]7501867[/url],D ,64,1118779,650.8,-41.3,16.8,30-Aug-03 13:57,28-Jan-02 00:01,S64180,C9085839F
[url=http://opteron.mersenneforum.org/exps/7516247.png]7516247[/url],D*,64,3675197,646.9,-38.0,10.0,15-Sep-03 18:58,31-Jan-02 21:27,Northwestern,C6C1CD4F1
[url=http://opteron.mersenneforum.org/exps/7562927.png]7562927[/url],D*,63,1769929,636.7,89.8,20.8,03-Sep-03 13:02,11-Feb-02 03:17,ckrusen,library
[url=http://opteron.mersenneforum.org/exps/7569559.png]7569559[/url],D ,64,6583843,634.0,-42.5,4.5,14-Sep-03 06:48,13-Feb-02 20:54,prog,Bertserv
[url=http://opteron.mersenneforum.org/exps/7683989.png]7683989[/url],D*,64,6643098,596.0,-48.0,8.0,15-Sep-03 20:15,23-Mar-02 20:07,Team_LiTH,Miro
[url=http://opteron.mersenneforum.org/exps/7726933.png]7726933[/url],D ,64,1205120,586.1,-0.3,30.7,13-Sep-03 12:34,02-Apr-02 16:21,S69774,C74DDF5F9
[url=http://opteron.mersenneforum.org/exps/7871873.png]7871873[/url],D ,64,1411584,546.9,11.9,24.9,07-Sep-03 16:35,11-May-02 22:56,TimC,mana
[url=http://opteron.mersenneforum.org/exps/7895299.png]7895299[/url],D ,64,6402687,540.1,-48.7,11.3,13-Sep-03 02:12,18-May-02 17:25,molotov,Oshmadu1
[url=http://opteron.mersenneforum.org/exps/7616249.png]7616249[/url],D ,64,6966218,535.5,-49.8,10.2,13-Sep-03 00:37,23-May-02 07:20,S23870,C80B77BFD
[url=http://opteron.mersenneforum.org/exps/7650451.png]7650451[/url],D ,64,2986496,514.5,-52.0,8.0,04-Sep-03 20:35,13-Jun-02 08:38,Mampo,C9DBB4AE8
[url=http://opteron.mersenneforum.org/exps/7979249.png]7979249[/url],D*,63,6562279,512.9,0.2,-0.8,29-Aug-03 00:20,14-Jun-02 21:10,Starchild,Bob3
[url=http://opteron.mersenneforum.org/exps/8015797.png]8015797[/url],D ,64,2344303,504.1,-15.0,25.0,07-Sep-03 20:23,23-Jun-02 17:14,u48900,jk
8033573,D*,63,,500.5,-40.8,14.2,05-Sep-03 00:18,27-Jun-02 07:26,Team_Prime_Rib,Tasuke22
8033539,D*,63,,500.5,-47.8,12.2,05-Sep-03 00:18,27-Jun-02 07:26,Team_Prime_Rib,Tasuke22
8033491,D*,63,,500.5,-54.8,5.2,05-Sep-03 00:18,27-Jun-02 07:26,Team_Prime_Rib,Tasuke22
8033429,D ,64,,500.5,232.8,85.8,07-Nov-03 13:16,27-Jun-02 07:26,Team_Prime_Rib,hydro
[url=http://opteron.mersenneforum.org/exps/8044051.png]8044051[/url],D ,64,4987901,498.0,20.9,80.9,06-Nov-03 17:14,29-Jun-02 19:14,S61506,CDFB9A760
[url=http://opteron.mersenneforum.org/exps/8123959.png]8123959[/url],D ,64,5517631,473.0,23.0,77.0,29-Oct-03 20:50,24-Jul-02 20:02,Juanma,Juanma
8132701,D*,63,,469.7,-33.8,14.2,05-Sep-03 00:18,28-Jul-02 03:04,Team_Prime_Rib,Tasuke22
8133707,D ,63,,469.1,53.2,53.2,03-Sep-03 23:32,28-Jul-02 16:01,CaptainEntropy,
[url=http://opteron.mersenneforum.org/exps/8140369.png]8140369[/url],D ,64,4911423,467.1,-30.2,20.8,03-Sep-03 15:34,30-Jul-02 17:33,S75183,C23251609
[url=http://opteron.mersenneforum.org/exps/8154929.png]8154929[/url],D*,64,5438272,465.2,-47.0,6.0,15-Sep-03 18:48,01-Aug-02 15:37,tsc,zentra01
[url=http://opteron.mersenneforum.org/exps/8186329.png]8186329[/url],D ,64,4632416,457.3,-27.1,21.9,04-Sep-03 16:28,09-Aug-02 12:42,darione,darione
[url=http://opteron.mersenneforum.org/exps/8179289.png]8179289[/url],D ,64,3458623,456.3,20.0,64.0,16-Oct-03 20:53,10-Aug-02 11:46,S78480,C2BCE0698
[url=http://opteron.mersenneforum.org/exps/8313587.png]8313587[/url],D ,65,6036928,439.4,-39.3,20.7,06-Sep-03 12:27,27-Aug-02 09:13,S70018,CF5F22CE2
[url=http://opteron.mersenneforum.org/exps/8344087.png]8344087[/url],D ,64,8126209,429.8,2.5,62.5,09-Nov-03 07:46,06-Sep-02 00:29,bhamrin,Aptiva
[url=http://opteron.mersenneforum.org/exps/8347921.png]8347921[/url],D ,65,7619483,429.3,-55.3,4.7,11-Sep-03 11:24,06-Sep-02 13:12,clown3k,cassiopeia
[url=http://opteron.mersenneforum.org/exps/8008237.png]8008237[/url],D ,64,5029888,416.4,-52.4,7.6,04-Sep-03 09:52,19-Sep-02 10:06,rats,frogs
[url=http://opteron.mersenneforum.org/exps/7735939.png]7735939[/url],D*,64,7021418,413.5,-55.3,4.7,27-Aug-03 12:01,22-Sep-02 08:58,S81156,C58ACE298
[url=http://opteron.mersenneforum.org/exps/8410643.png]8410643[/url],D ,65,6438464,413.0,20.4,80.4,03-Nov-03 04:04,22-Sep-02 19:24,mrvs,texa
[url=http://opteron.mersenneforum.org/exps/8440373.png]8440373[/url],D ,65,6533633,407.8,-24.8,35.2,13-Oct-03 00:17,28-Sep-02 00:50,nevek,C0D5A63AB
[url=http://opteron.mersenneforum.org/exps/8304437.png]8304437[/url],D ,65,985287,403.7,13.8,66.8,09-Nov-03 13:40,02-Oct-02 02:38,Criswell,OSHO
8468137,D ,65,,403.0,34.6,54.6,03-Nov-03 10:53,02-Oct-02 18:49,Mezzo,mw_vu2
7252181,D*,64,,402.4,5.1,5.1,17-Jul-03 22:37,03-Oct-02 09:04,norbert,a2
7233287,D*,64,,402.4,5.1,5.1,17-Jul-03 22:42,03-Oct-02 09:03,norbert,a4
[url=http://opteron.mersenneforum.org/exps/7624003.png]7624003[/url],D ,65,6080914,397.3,34.8,48.8,28-Oct-03 15:53,08-Oct-02 12:50,Z,MarkW
[url=http://opteron.mersenneforum.org/exps/8512033.png]8512033[/url],D ,65,258240,392.2,14.9,60.9,09-Nov-03 16:30,13-Oct-02 14:11,WileECoyote,sharkyjr
[url=http://opteron.mersenneforum.org/exps/8518519.png]8518519[/url],D ,65,4521983,389.9,9.8,9.8,15-Sep-03 13:57,15-Oct-02 21:20,kaffe,jobbet
[url=http://opteron.mersenneforum.org/exps/8528843.png]8528843[/url],D ,65,2293312,388.0,-10.3,31.8,14-Sep-03 13:54,17-Oct-02 18:59,mbond,C172C0D2B
[url=http://opteron.mersenneforum.org/exps/8554901.png]8554901[/url],D ,65,2802312,382.8,-7.3,9.8,15-Sep-03 13:05,22-Oct-02 23:02,crestwicke,h_hcc2
[url=http://opteron.mersenneforum.org/exps/8571053.png]8571053[/url],D ,64,6337141,380.3,-40.3,18.7,01-Sep-03 11:04,25-Oct-02 12:09,belhadj,C0C8D6EA9
[url=http://opteron.mersenneforum.org/exps/8578243.png]8578243[/url],D ,65,8180371,378.0,-24.0,36.0,12-Oct-03 19:32,27-Oct-02 19:49,RG3,3A
[url=http://opteron.mersenneforum.org/exps/8125301.png]8125301[/url],D*,64,5698391,376.5,0.5,60.5,15-Oct-03 07:24,29-Oct-02 08:14,42014685,Sonne
8156299,D ,64,,375.5,57.5,57.5,08-Sep-03 06:26,30-Oct-02 07:54,PaJaSoft,PII
8155897,D ,64,,375.5,57.5,57.5,08-Sep-03 06:26,30-Oct-02 07:54,PaJaSoft,PII
[url=http://opteron.mersenneforum.org/exps/9000209.png]9000209[/url],D ,65,95590,375.0,142.8,66.8,09-Nov-03 13:40,30-Oct-02 20:00,Criswell,OSHO
8597263,D ,64,,373.4,-14.5,18.5,15-Sep-03 08:58,01-Nov-02 09:02,S09625,Cel14
[url=http://opteron.mersenneforum.org/exps/8610169.png]8610169[/url],D ,65,1742592,370.2,151.9,25.9,08-Sep-03 16:30,04-Nov-02 14:24,S82501,C2682F19D
[url=http://opteron.mersenneforum.org/exps/7939829.png]7939829[/url],D*,64,1045017,368.4,6.7,66.7,03-Nov-03 11:49,06-Nov-02 10:59,S09625,Cel04
[url=http://opteron.mersenneforum.org/exps/8621897.png]8621897[/url],D ,65,8969,367.2,125.8,66.8,09-Nov-03 13:40,07-Nov-02 15:19,Criswell,OSHO
[url=http://opteron.mersenneforum.org/exps/8621867.png]8621867[/url],D ,65,9230,367.2,109.8,66.8,09-Nov-03 13:40,07-Nov-02 15:19,Criswell,OSHO
[url=http://opteron.mersenneforum.org/exps/8621863.png]8621863[/url],D ,65,8900,367.2,93.8,66.8,09-Nov-03 13:40,07-Nov-02 15:19,Criswell,OSHO
[url=http://opteron.mersenneforum.org/exps/8621857.png]8621857[/url],D ,65,15698,367.2,77.8,66.8,09-Nov-03 13:40,07-Nov-02 15:19,Criswell,OSHO
[url=http://opteron.mersenneforum.org/exps/8621843.png]8621843[/url],D ,65,8785,367.2,60.8,66.8,09-Nov-03 13:40,07-Nov-02 15:19,Criswell,OSHO
[url=http://opteron.mersenneforum.org/exps/8622473.png]8622473[/url],D ,65,1785547,367.0,-19.0,32.0,14-Sep-03 20:54,07-Nov-02 20:48,S02664,P3400Mz
[url=http://opteron.mersenneforum.org/exps/8638339.png]8638339[/url],D ,65,4156415,363.3,-21.4,30.6,13-Sep-03 10:17,11-Nov-02 13:14,sNYder,1
[url=http://opteron.mersenneforum.org/exps/8136893.png]8136893[/url],D*,64,7667713,362.5,-49.9,7.1,15-Sep-03 21:25,12-Nov-02 06:11,primenator,C33B72AA6
[url=http://opteron.mersenneforum.org/exps/8653657.png]8653657[/url],D ,65,1527616,360.2,22.6,59.6,08-Nov-03 10:40,14-Nov-02 15:42,JC,PDU
8086411,D*,64,,354.3,18.8,60.8,09-Nov-03 15:59,20-Nov-02 11:34,Aillas,Lexa
8085239,D*,64,,354.3,10.8,60.8,09-Nov-03 15:59,20-Nov-02 11:34,Aillas,Lexa
[url=http://opteron.mersenneforum.org/exps/8081419.png]8081419[/url],D ,65,6025177,354.3,2.8,60.8,09-Nov-03 15:59,20-Nov-02 11:33,Aillas,Lexa
8686297,D ,65,,352.4,-10.5,9.5,22-Jul-03 07:33,22-Nov-02 10:07,JC,GVA
[/size][/font]

Thanks for the list GP2. I believe that at least some of the exponents should be excluded from the list above. Our discussions in the thread should help refine this. One criteria would be to exclude exponents that have over 1 million completed iterations. That may be overly broad though. My concern is that the "days to go" column is not an accurate predictor of how long it would take to finish an exponent and yet I know for a fact that many of the exponents listed above, if left alone, will complete within the next month or two.

So our concern here is to minimize wasted CPU - by checking an exponent when the original assignee is likely to return a result soon - and yet to not let the exponents drag on forever.

I have been trying to help in this consideration in a legal way - and also to discourage poachers - by mopping up expiring exponents every evening at 0600GMT - I'm on the west coast. I've caught a large numebr of these and have managed to erduce the list of outstanding exponents above 9M significantly.

To avoid unnecessary triple checks I've adopted a "maturing" strategy whereby I let exponents that had more than 1 million iterations complete before they expired wait for about 30 days before I work on them. I have paid close attention to this problem since I have about 40 triplechecks for exponents I doublechecked but then I only test expired doublechecks. [b]George[/b] I'd be interested to know your thoughts if any on this.

[b]GP2[/b] since the days to go figure is unreliable, I'd suggest that you look at an older status file and compare the number of iterations completed for each exponent and figure out the approximate rate at which an exponent is being completed. That would give us a much better idea of which exponents fall under the > 6 month to complete category.

Finally, I would like to complete all the Team_Prime_Rib exponents listed above myself so I'm going to ask the assignees if they can either bump those exponents to the top of their worktodo or let me take those exponents over.

[Edit: this had to be split off from the previous post in this thread when I added links to progress graphs for exponents (because the board software imposes a maximum byte length per message]



[color=red]Click on any exponent to see a graph of its progress[/color]


If we add first-time checks under 10M, only 3 exponents are added:

[font=courier new][size=1]
8206057, ,64,,420.8,95.2,95.2,16-Oct-03 00:36,15-Sep-02 00:19,Team_Prime_Rib,trif_pest
8206021, ,64,,420.8,95.2,95.2,16-Oct-03 00:36,15-Sep-02 00:09,Team_Prime_Rib,trif_pest
8206013, ,64,,420.8,95.2,95.2,16-Oct-03 00:36,15-Sep-02 01:16,Team_Prime_Rib,trif_pest
[/size][/font]

For first-time or double-checking tests in the 10M-11M range, we have:

[font=courier new][size=1]
[url=http://opteron.mersenneforum.org/exps/10412737.png]10412737[/url], ,65,6686448,1260,27.8,59.8,08-Nov-03 14:32,29-May-00 04:01,dtlgc,Kids-p3-900
[url=http://opteron.mersenneforum.org/exps/10964861.png]10964861[/url], ,65,2594367,1171,2808,69.9,05-Nov-03 17:38,25-Aug-00 18:50,gediminas,ihome
[url=http://opteron.mersenneforum.org/exps/10599221.png]10599221[/url], ,65,2135004,1060,543.8,54.8,29-Oct-03 15:36,14-Dec-00 09:13,smoros,padrelin
[url=http://opteron.mersenneforum.org/exps/11840051.png]11840051[/url], ,65,11534336,864.3,-48.0,6.0,15-Sep-03 18:57,28-Jun-01 11:23,MPICE,MS-QUATTRO
[url=http://opteron.mersenneforum.org/exps/11000347.png]11000347[/url], ,66,23304,375.0,44.8,66.8,09-Nov-03 13:40,30-Oct-02 20:01,Criswell,OSHO
[url=http://opteron.mersenneforum.org/exps/10271543.png]10271543[/url],D ,65,8742399,223.9,5.5,60.5,09-Nov-03 07:44,30-Mar-03 21:02,NickGlover,Aptiva
10599223,D ,65,,217.0,223.4,60.4,09-Nov-03 04:56,06-Apr-03 18:11,GW,P4-1600
[/size][/font]

[QUOTE][i]Originally posted by garo [/i]
[B][b]GP2[/b] since the days to go figure is unreliable, I'd suggest that you look at an older status file and compare the number of iterations completed for each exponent and figure out the approximate rate at which an exponent is being completed. That would give us a much better idea of which exponents fall under the > 6 month to complete category.
[/B][/QUOTE]

I modified the previous posts: click on any exponent to see a graph of its progress (if it's not clickable, no iterations have been done yet).

Each graph is scaled so that the top of the graph represents 100% completion.

From visual inspection it's easy to see which ones are hopeless cases, and which ones still have some hope. I'm not sure how you can translate that into a mathematical formula though, because not all the curves are fit by a straight line.

The graphs can be generated automatically and quickly, and only a small set of double-checking exponents have been running longer than a year. So rather than come up with a mathematical formula to estimate time of completion, maybe George could just use visual inspection to decide which exponents to poach.

The graphs show only last-updated time and iteration count. In a handful of cases, the data show more than one user's work (a previous user who let it expire half-completed, etc)

Cool! These graphs are just what the doctor ordered. I'm sure they'll go a long way in helping George decide what to release. If he feels manual inspection is too time consuming I guess we could try and come up with some automated method. But let us wait to hear from him first.

Again great work!!

GP2, you are amazing!! I'm perfectly happy with you formulating a list of hopeless causes (no hope for completion in 6 months).

One last check - can you match the userid with some past results. We should be wary of poaching assignments from someone using non-prime95 clients. Mlucas and Glucas do not update the iteration counts - so it goes from zero to done in one fell swoop.

[QUOTE][i]Originally posted by garo [/i]
[B]To avoid unnecessary triple checks I've adopted a "maturing" strategy whereby I let exponents that had more than 1 million iterations complete before they expired wait for about 30 days before I work on them. I have paid close attention to this problem since I have about 40 triplechecks for exponents I doublechecked but then I only test expired doublechecks. [b]George[/b] I'd be interested to know your thoughts if any on this.[/B][/QUOTE]
It sounds like you are working within the primenet rules - I see no problems. Good work!

Somebody didn't wait on 7137769... it got poached and completed.

It probably would have (just) made the six-month cut ([url=http://opteron.mersenneforum.org/exps/7137769.png]see graph[/url]), with projected completion around April or May of next year.