Computational predictions!
 

This thread is somewhat related to the"[URL="http://www.mersenneforum.org/showthread.php?t=17706"]Predict M49...[/URL]" thread.

Basically, name a few interesting (to you?) computations and everyone in the thread gets to predict when they will occur.

Our two choices are:

F12 completely factored?
F33 primality status determined?

First factorization of a 1024-bit hard integer

First factor found for M1277.

First known factor of any of the double-mersennes MM61,89,107, and 127 - especially the latter.

Of course if a given one of these happens to be 'uncooperative' and have a sufficiently large smallest-factor it may remain forever out of reach - cf. previous discussions on this forum about the minimal physical size of a quantum computer which could factor MM127 and what 'clock rate' said size implies, for example.

[QUOTE=lycorn;412163]First factor found for M1277.[/QUOTE]Long before my challenge.

WAG: before the end of 2016

[QUOTE=xilman;412188]Long before my challenge.

WAG: before the end of 2016[/QUOTE]

"Predictions are hard, especially about the future."

-- Yogi Berra (RIP)

Ha! I would invest few thousand dollars for the F12 (or any Fx) full factorization, if I would know this can be done to the mid of next year. I would really like to make a nice 100 b-day present to Richard Guy... (and get that $10 check from him! yaaaarrrr! :chappy:).
:razz:

[QUOTE=xilman;412161]First factorization of a 1024-bit hard integer[/QUOTE]

Early 2020. Someone will try to get it done this decade, and miss by a little.

Factor of M1277: 18 months, so April 2017. Or next week, if Mr Propper returns and takes aim.

[QUOTE=VBCurtis;412214]...Or next week, if Mr Propper returns and takes aim.[/QUOTE]
:smile:

RSA2048

First 100M+ Mersenne Prime (exponent)
First 100M+ Mersenne Prime (digits)