Move 49
 

Our question for this move would seem to be: in which direction do we want to send our king? (49...Nd7 50.Rxa5 looks like nonsense to me, so it's a king move.)

The two considerations which spring to my mind now are:
[LIST][*]Let's not go to the back rank. After 49...Kf8 or 49...Kd8 they can keep our king trapped on our first rank with their rook on their seventh as long as they want while they manoeuvre their other pieces and overwhelm us.[*]Perhaps we now have the possibility of going to protect our h pawn with our king, relieving our bishop from that function. That might give us serious drawing chances. Of course, they'll play Bc2 and possibly h4 which keeps our king at bay, but the rook can then only attack h6 from the h7 square if they don't want to allow ...Kg7, and that reduces their possibilities of winning our a pawn while we're defending the h pawn.[/LIST]Those considerations in mind, my preferred move right now is 49...Kf6.


But maybe heading for the queenside with 49...Kd6 instead is worth considering. It has the merit of protecting our knight which negates any possible immediate threat they might have to our pieces (knight is short of safe squares, knight and bishop are currently vulnerable to a skewer with the rook on the c file once they've sorted out their attacked bishop).

The line 49...Kf6 50.Rc7 Nxb3 51.Rc3 Nd4+ 52.Ke4 Ne2 53.Rc6+ Kg7 54.Kd3 wins the piece back for them and leaves an ending where they have the exchange and a pawn extra and we no longer have the drawing potential of opposite coloured bishops. Almost no chance for us to save the game here, I think. Can anyone improve on that line for us? If not, perhaps 49...Kd6 is necessary.

Interesting that they didn't force this while they could by playing 49.Rc6.

EDIT: 54...Nf4+! at the end of that line, but it's still hopeless I think: 55.gxf4 Bxf4 56.h3 (threat Rc5), Bg5 (intending ...Bd8) 57.Rd6 Bf4 58.Rd7+ Kg6 59.Ra7 picking up our a pawn.

At the moment I prefer Richs' line:

[quote]
48. ... Nc5
49. Ra7+ Kf8
50. Bc2 Bd2
51. Ke2 Bc3
52. Rc7 Bd4
[/quote]

:smile:

[QUOTE=paulunderwood;384874]At the moment I prefer Richs' line:[/QUOTE]
Well, two problems with 49...Kf8:

They can keep our king confined to the back rank with their rook while they overwhelm us with their other pieces.

Or they can play 50.Rc7 with a line similar to the one in post #2 above.

I see.Then we should explore:

49. ... Kd6
50.Bc2 Kd5

making for an attack on a4

:smile:

[QUOTE=paulunderwood;384887]I see.Then we should explore:

49. ... Kd6
50.Bc2 Kd5

making for an attack on a4

:smile:[/QUOTE]
Hmm, well I don't see much hope after 49...Kd6 50.Bc2 Kd5 51.Rxa5 Kc4 52.Rb5 but I would think that simply 50...Bd2 holds for the time being in this line.

The burning question in my mind is still: can anyone see a way out for us after 49...Kf6 50.Rc7, improving on the line in post #2? If not (and I can't), then I think we are forced to play 49...Kd6 now. But if we can survive 49...Kf6 50.Rc7 somehow then I prefer that on general principles as I described in post #1.


EDIT: No, I'm wrong in the first paragraph about 50...Bd2 holding: 49...Kd6 50.Bc2 Bd2 51.Ke2 Bc3/b4 52.Rh7 is hopeless too. No doubt that's why you suggested the counter-attack with 50...Kd5, right? Everything seems to me to lose now.

Oops! I forgot about defending the a-pawn.

As you said:

[quote]
49...Kf6 50.Rc7 Nxb3 51.Rc3 Nd4+ 52.Ke4 Ne2 53.Rc6+ Kg7 54.Kd3 Nf4+ 55.gxf4 Bxf4 56.h3
[/quote]

but 56. ... Bg3 then onto d1 :smile:

[QUOTE=paulunderwood;384906]but 56. ... Bg3 then onto d1 :smile:[/QUOTE]
Yes, this seems to work! I thought 57.Ke2 refuted, but then 57...Bh4 intending ...Bd8 and I can't see an immediate way for them to round up the a pawn.

However, they can of course march their king to b5 while keeping our king confined to our second rank so we cannot harass their h pawn, then give back the exchange on a5 and win the resulting pawns ending easily. So it is still a simple win for them.

Still, I definitely think 49...Kf6 is the right move now, 49...Kd6 being absolutely hopeless. They have a win with 50.Rc7, I think, but it's up to them to find it and have the confidence to play it. They didn't play 49.Rc6 which would have amounted to the same thing, so we can hope. :-)

Yes, getting the King to b5 is losing for us.

How about this line:

49. ... Kf6
50.Rc7 Ba3

:question:

[QUOTE=paulunderwood;384913]How about this line:

49. ... Kf6
50.Rc7 Ba3

:question:[/QUOTE]
I missed 50...Ba3 completely.:redface:

Looking at it now, I'm not sure. 51.Bc2 threatens h4 followed by Rc6+,Kg7,Rg6+ winning the h pawn. And if 51...Kg5 52.h4+ Kh5 53.Rf7 and the threat of Rf5+ costs us the knight.

David and Rich, are you around? If you have time, we need to know what you both think.