Move 24
 

They have done Bc8 as we expected.

So far my favourite move is Kf2 but I would like to for a good argument against several other moves before we make a decision.

I can see black trying to move their bishop to g4 to force the knight to move. Qc2 would stop this but wouldn't make much progress at capturing the pawn that will be on f4 after exf4. Kg2 is IMO more likely to be attacked by the white bishop(the black bishop is blocked from attacking). I prefer Kf2 because of that.
Any other moves that need thinking about? Any questions on my analysis?

Under Kg2, one line is:

24. Kg2 Bg4
25. Qc2 Bxe2
26. Qxe2 exf4
27. Qxc4+ Kh8
28. Qc7 (attacking their queenside pawns) or h4 (attacking the kingside) or Kf3, blocking up their pawn (for a little while).

another line is

24. Kg2 exf4
25. Kf3 (to prevent Bg4) Rd2
26. h4 (and we attack the kingside)

another line is

24. Kg2 Rd2
25. Kf3 (to unpin the knight) exf4 [not ... Bg4+ Kxg4 Rxe2, after which we can check them and get rid of their nasty passed pawn and get counterplay]
26. h4 Bg4+
27. Kxg4 Rxe2
28. Bd5+ Kh8
and we seem to lose. No better is:

24. Kg2 Rd2
25. Qe1 Rxb2
26. fxe5 Bg4

I'm not sure I understand why moving the king is necessary right now. How about guarding the d2 square with the queen? Any of 24.Qc1, 24.Qc2 or 24.Qe1 are worth considering in my opinion.

It seems to me that their passed pawn is a killer we have trouble stopping. What about the following:

24. Qc1 Bg4

now we can't move our knight or we lose the queen

25. Qe3 Bxe2
26. Kxe2 exf4
27. Qf3 b5
28. b3 cxb3

and we don't seem to ever get the upper-hand.

The reason to move the king (off the f file) is to force them to take exf4 before they are ready. But I'm getting the feeling that we made a blunder taking their knight instead of their bishop... We should have studied the Bc8 line a bit more than we did.

Although, I think Qc2 ain't so bad.

24. Qc2 exf4
25. Nd4 Bxd4
26. cxd4 Rxd4
27. Bxg6 Bh3+
28. Kf2 f3
29. Bxh7+ Kh8
30. g6! Bf5
31. g7+ Kxg7
32. Bxf5 and we are winning.

Yes, that looks good. If we do choose to defend d2 with the queen, then 24.Qc2 seems the right square, keeping the possibility of Bxg6 open and removing the danger on the back rank if Black plays ...Bg4. I like 24.Qc2 at the moment.

Here's the line I posted back in Move 22 (post #3):

22. Qb1 Nxf1
23. Kxf1 Bc8
24. Bg2 Rd3
25. Be4 Bf5
26. Bxf5 Rxf5

And things look dicey with their rooks bearing down....

Another alternate 24. Bg2 line:

24. Bg2 Rd3
25. Be4 Bf5
26. Bxd3 cxd3
27. Ng3 Bh3+
28. Kf2 exf4
29. Ne4 Rd8

And we're decidedly ahead.

Next I will look at 24. Qc2

What do we do after:

24. Bg2 Bf5

On Qc2 I see something like the following:

24. Qc2 Bg4
25. Kf2 exf4
26. Bf3 (otherwise they push f3)

and there are a lot of options for both sides.

[QUOTE=Zeta-Flux;334146]On Qc2 I see something like the following:

24. Qc2 Bg4
25. Kf2 exf4
26. Bf3 (otherwise they push f3)

and there are a lot of options for both sides.[/QUOTE]
Even better, I think, is 26.Nd4, just as in the line you posted earlier. Then we are intending Nf3 to blockade on f3 which is much more active than blockading with the bishop. If they counter this with 26...Bxd4+ 27.cxd4 b5 (27...Rxd4 28.Bxg6) 28.d5 and we have prospects of activating our queen on the c3-h8 diagonal as well as having our own passed pawn.

Possibly better for them is 24.Qc2 Bg4 25.Kf2 Bxe2 26.Qxe2 Rxf4+ 27.Kg3 b5 when they are the only side which can contemplate winning, but I think we hold this with passive defence. If they double rooks on the f-file to invade, we play Kg2 ready to give back our queen for both rooks and a dead draw. If they return the rook on f4 back to double on the d-file we have time to activate our queen via the g4 square.