How did you come up with that one?

According to the updated milestones page, there are currently 52,228 untested exponents (as of time of writing) below the mystery prime. I added up the values under the "NO-LL" column up to 57M and got 41,974 exponents.

Assuming the untested exponents are uniformly distributed, I did some extrapolation:

52,228 - 41,974 = 10,254
10,254/11,600 * 1,000,000 ≈ 883,966.

This allowed me to deduce that the exponent of the new prime must be around 57.88M. Sure enough, M57881749 was the only one in that range that does not show a residue.

[size=1]Unless, of course, George decided to hide the residue of other exponents just to throw us off.[/size]

I am GMT+7 (that is what my Windows says, to clarify the former argument).

Looking to the GIMPS milestones, I found out that the best time to find primes is November 13 to 17... followed by August 23-24, then on the third place with a day distance, September 4-6 and January 25-27.... (incredible how they all come in groups!)

So, please time your assignments in such a way to end on one of those dates, to have any chances to find a prime....

[QUOTE=GIMPS Milestones]
November 13, 1996: Prime M(1398269) is discovered!
November 14, 2001: Prime M(13466917) is discovered!
November 17, 2003: Prime M(20996011) is discovered!

August 23, 2008: Prime M(43112609) discovered!!
August 24, 1997: Prime M(2976221) is discovered!

January 25, 2013: Prime M(xxxxxxxx) discovered!!
January 27, 1998: Prime M(3021377) is discovered!

September 4, 2006: Prime M(32582657) discovered!
September 6, 2008: Prime M(37156667) discovered!!

[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=LaurV;327648]Looking to the GIMPS milestones, I found out that the best time to find primes is November 13 to 17... followed by August 23-24, then on the third place with a day distance, September 4-6 and January 25-27.... (incredible how they all come in groups!)[/QUOTE]
Going back to the start of the computer era the clumps get better (the red "2" is when 2 primes were found on that date):

January 10
[COLOR="Blue"]January 25
January 27
January 28
January 30 [COLOR="Red"]2[/COLOR][/COLOR]
February 9
[COLOR="Green"]February 18
February 19[/COLOR]
March 4
[COLOR="blue"]April 8
April 12[/COLOR]
[COLOR="green"]May 11
May 15
May 16[/COLOR]
[COLOR="Blue"]June 1
June 2[/COLOR]
June 25
[COLOR="Green"]August 23
August 24
September 3
September 4
September 6 [COLOR="Red"]2[/COLOR]
September 8[/COLOR]
[COLOR="Blue"]September 20
September 25[/COLOR]
[COLOR="Green"]October 7
October 9[/COLOR]
[COLOR="blue"]October 30
November 3 [COLOR="red"]2[/COLOR][/COLOR]
[COLOR="green"]November 13
November 14
November 17[/COLOR]
December 15

[QUOTE=Uncwilly;327663]Going back to the start of the computer era the clumps get better (the red "2" is when 2 primes were found on that date):
[/QUOTE]

So the conclusion is that you're likely to find a prime between Jan 10th and Dec 15th? You know, just to hedge my bets, I'm going to slightly expand that range and make it Jan 1st to Dec 31st. Just in case. :rolleyes:

EDIT:- The largest gap is 59 days (between 23 Aug and 29 Jun). Second largest is 35 days (between 8 Apr and 4 Mar). All other gaps are < 30 days.

I predict that in the long term after we have found zillions of these Mersenne Prime thingies that 29-Feb will be the lowest performing date by approximately a factor of four compared to all the other dates. :showoff:

ah and this new prime mean that we have to look for factor of M(M48)... this will be very hard to do.
Ah and the kidnapping in alabama ended in a *good* <ay... let's hope for no massive shooting and we have a chance of making news.

[QUOTE=firejuggler;327667]ah and this new prime mean that we have to look for factor of M(M48)... this will be very hard to do.
[/QUOTE]

We are ready for that... :smile:

Luigi

retina? how many trillion billion are zillion? and how high would those prime be ? I mean, not the prime themselves, but the exponent?

[QUOTE=firejuggler;327674]how many trillion billion are zillion?[/QUOTE]About the same number as in a [strike]Brazilian[/strike] brazillion.

Beechwood 5-7-8-8-1*ahem*4-5789
 

[QUOTE=ixfd64;327641]My new guess: M57881749.[/QUOTE]

Seconded. We have the following evidence:

1. [URL="http://www.mersenne.org/assignments/?exp_lo=57881000&exp_hi=57882000&execm=1&extf=1&B1=Get+Assignments"]57881749 is not assigned to anyone...[/URL] and there's no reason that it shouldn't be. 57881573, for instance, was handed out to ANONYMOUS yesterday. Other neighboring exponents have been handed out in recent days. If 57881749 were truly free, it wouldn't be for long.

2. [URL="http://www.mersenne.org/report_exponent/?exp_lo=57881749&exp_hi=10000&B1=Get+status"]57881749 indeed has a curtisc pedigree[/URL]; it was P-1'ed (the usual curtisc S1-only job) back in September. It is an almost certainty that this exponent was therefore assigned to curtisc for LL testing, as curtisc does not normally (ever?) perform P-1 for its own sake.

3. The link in (2) shows no known LL result for 57881749. So, based on the logic in (2), it should show up on a list of team assignments for curtisc, right? Well, I have an empty test account that belongs to curtisc's team, and I just looked at their (thousands of) team assignments. You guessed it...57881749 is nowhere to be found!

4. The milestone estimates/calculations detailed in this thread (and those that I have secondarily performed) indicate an exponent in the neighborhood of 57.8-57.9 million.

Four hours exactly to go...but I'm going to agree with ixfd64 and make my final guess that M48 = 2^57881749-1. :bow: