Here's another random fact: GIMPS will have a stranglehold on the top ten primes for the first time in at least 6 years :wink:

[QUOTE=Dubslow;326922]Here's another random fact: GIMPS will have a stranglehold on the top ten primes for the first time in at least 6 years :wink:[/QUOTE]

I don't think GIMPS as ever had the complete top 10. There were some pretty big SOB primes in the early 2000s. The question is when was the last time the ten largest known Mersenne primes were also the ten largest known primes?

There's also another cloud on the horizon. PGrid got more than probabilisitcally expected lucky with some sizeable GFNs. The wrGFN (world-record generalized Fermats) could get lucky, too. That's b[SUP]4194304[/SUP]+1. Their chances are as good as ours, aren't they?

Time remaining?

[COLOR=green]_________________________[/COLOR]
[COLOR=green]Mlucas[/COLOR] [URL="http://www.mersenneforum.org/showpost.php?p=326742&postcount=182"]ETA[/URL] [COLOR=green]has not changed. Well, ok, it did change. It will be two hours earlier. [/COLOR]
[COLOR=green]It will still be [I]not[/I] official - folks, stop devaluing the word "official"! [/COLOR]
[COLOR=green]How can it be official, if there's no official statement?! [/COLOR]
[COLOR=green]Wait for it. :-)[/COLOR]

[QUOTE=NBtarheel_33;326633]In all seriousness, consider that Colquitt and Welsh discovered M110503 25 years ago. We're now verifying a prime with an exponent likely in the 50-60 million range. So the size of a "testable" candidate has increased roughly 500-fold in 25 years. It only needs to increase 60-fold from here in order to feasibly run billion-digit tests. Even with Moore's Law slowing down (and is it really?), 60-fold over another 25 years doesn't seem like too farfetched a goal.[/QUOTE]

I'm [url=http://mersenneforum.org/showthread.php?t=14322#post241017]on record[/url] betting that GIMPS won't have 8 new Mersenne prime discoveries between 2010 and 2030. This prime (provisionally M48) would be the first of those hypothetical 8.

[QUOTE=M29;326865]I think M[SUB]110503[/SUB] took 11 minutes to test on the NEC SX/2 which is about 0.006 sec/iteration. FFT size of 8K.

Crandall's irrational base discrete weighted transform would run over 4 times faster. Implementing non-power of 2 FFTs would bring further improvement. I suppose that if George or Ernst had programmed the SX/2, M[SUB]110503[/SUB]'s iteration time would have dropped to 0.001 second.

Over a year or two, Walt probably got only a couple of percent of the machine time. It was not running in background.

Another stat I recall is that PZILLA ran at a sustained 2.4 MFLOP and was the "world's fastest program". The SX/2 was a vector machine theoretically capable of 2.6 MFLOP.[/QUOTE]
Fascinated as I am by the flaccidity of your hardware (or otherwise), I am more intersted in how many candidates you tested, and especially why the **** Slowinsky left gaps.

David

[QUOTE=CRGreathouse;326966]I'm [URL="http://mersenneforum.org/showthread.php?t=14322#post241017"]on record[/URL] betting that GIMPS won't have 8 new Mersenne prime discoveries between 2010 and 2030. This prime (provisionally M48) would be the first of those hypothetical 8.[/QUOTE]
I'm wondering whether to accept this bet or not.

The current expected discovery rate is 1 in 4 years at best, but on "Moore's Law" principles, I can think of this going down to 2.

How long is it since you and I discussed the sensible TF level for GPUs?

David
x

Now that prime has been triplechecked (and a quadruple check almost nearing finish), what is preventing the revelation of the exponent within the forum?

All previous finds were revealed as soon as the primes were confirmed. Why the delay for this one?

PS:- Official announcements are for the press/rest of the planet.

[QUOTE=axn;326994]All previous finds were revealed as soon as the primes were confirmed. Why the delay for this one?[/QUOTE]
George is on vacation?

[QUOTE=Uncwilly;326995]George is on vacation?[/QUOTE]

Heh :razz:

Maybe he's working on a press release?