And now a PSA
 

Authorities have warned people in the US to be on the look out for MegaMillions (sm)(tm)(r) Mania. Sufferers from this syndrome will be afflicted with grandiose dreams and yearings for the vast wealth afforded by the March 30 drawing.

[SIZE="1"](Let me know if you have a set of numbers that you think is lucky....I might play them!)[/SIZE]

[QUOTE=schickel;294633][SIZE="1"](Let me know if you have a set of numbers that you think is lucky....I might play them!)[/SIZE][/QUOTE]In no particular order: π, e, φ, G, i, 0

[QUOTE=schickel;294633]Authorities have warned people in the US to be on the look out for MegaMillions (sm)(tm)(r) Mania. Sufferers from this syndrome will be afflicted with grandiose dreams and yearings for the vast wealth afforded by the March 30 drawing.

[SIZE=1](Let me know if you have a set of numbers that you think is lucky....I might play them!)[/SIZE][/QUOTE]

I already bought my winning numbers, now I just have to wait and see if they match the lottery's winning numbers.

[QUOTE=schickel;294633]Authorities have warned people in the US to be on the look out for MegaMillions (sm)(tm)(r) Mania. Sufferers from this syndrome will be afflicted with grandiose dreams and yearings for the vast wealth afforded by the March 30 drawing.

[SIZE="1"](Let me know if you have a set of numbers that you think is lucky....I might play them!)[/SIZE][/QUOTE]

5; 7; 13; 17; 19; 31

[QUOTE=petrw1;294651]5; 7; 13; 17; 19; 31[/QUOTE]

What about 2 and 3! They also hold a special place in the project's heart!

[QUOTE=KyleAskine;294661]What about 2 and 3! They also hold a special place in the project's heart![/QUOTE]

I was only allowed to pick 6 and had to make a heart wrenching choice.:down:

I wonder how many lottery drawings have consisted of all primes.

[QUOTE=bcp19;294676]I wonder how many lottery drawings have consisted of all primes.[/QUOTE]

((16 choose 5) * 14) / ((56 choose 5) * 46) * 2 drawings/week * 52 weeks/year * 17 years ~= 0.6153081263827778 chance of it happening since the game began.

[QUOTE=bcp19;294676]I wonder how many lottery drawings have consisted of all primes.[/QUOTE]

Our local lottery company published ALL winning #s since inception (20+ years ago)...unfortunately it is in a secured PDF document that I cannot load into excel for example to analyze.

Interesting....
 

Sales have been brisker than expected! Last drawing, they revised the jackpot estimate up from $356M on Saturday to $363M on Monday. Check it out now.

Interesting psychology at play here: the odds are the same now as they are when the jackpot starts at $12M, in fact it would be better to play when the jackpot is smaller, since there will be (potentially) less winners, but people get into the crowd mentality.....

[QUOTE=petrw1;294651]5; 7; 13; 17; 19; 31[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=bcp19;294676]I wonder how many lottery drawings have consisted of all primes.[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=petrw1;294684]Our local lottery company published ALL winning #s since inception (20+ years ago)...unfortunately it is in a secured PDF document that I cannot load into excel for example to analyze.[/QUOTE]The thing I dislike about the current structure is having the numbers picked as "5 numbers plus a Mega (tm) number". That means that to play your numbers fully you would have to play more combinations.....however, just going in order, these are the top picks in the MM drawings. (In the last drawing, 2 + Mega got $10, 3 got $7, and 1 + Mega was $3....)

[SIZE="1"]California lets you download all the past winning numbers in text form from [URL="http://www.calottery.com/sitecore/content/Miscellaneous/download-numbers/?GameName=mega-millions"]here[/URL].[/SIZE]

[QUOTE=retina;294634]In no particular order: π, e, φ, G, i, 0[/QUOTE]

What's G? (I should hope it isn't Newton's constant, because that has units and therefore its numerical value is entirely arbitrary, so it makes for a terrible "number".)

[QUOTE=schickel;294692][SIZE="1"]California lets you download all the past winning numbers in text form from [URL="http://www.calottery.com/sitecore/content/Miscellaneous/download-numbers/?GameName=mega-millions"]here[/URL].[/SIZE][/QUOTE]

Max 4 primes; 24 times; most recent:

703 Fri. Mar 16, 2012 28 29 43 51 53 7

88 times there were NO primes

[QUOTE=Dubslow;294701]What's G?[/QUOTE]Graham's number.

[QUOTE=retina;294715]Graham's number.[/QUOTE]

............................Ah.


Good luck putting that on a lottery ticket :smile:

[QUOTE=retina;294634]In no particular order: π, e, φ, G, i, 0[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=Dubslow;294701]What's G? (I should hope it isn't Newton's constant, because that has units and therefore its numerical value is entirely arbitrary, so it makes for a terrible "number".)[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=retina;294715]Graham's number.[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=Dubslow;294717]............................Ah.


Good luck putting that on a lottery ticket :smile:[/QUOTE]I think I figured out how to mark the ticket....now I just need some zlotys to play it.....

[QUOTE=schickel;294720]I think I figured out how to mark the ticket....now I just need some zlotys to play it.....[/QUOTE]Ooops....I actually need to know the value of [tex]G[/tex] mod [tex]46[/tex] to mark up this playslip....

Can you say "Holy :censored: batsh*t?"

This is after the jump overnight....and I committed yesterday to going in to work and selling tickets for a few hours later. I wonder how bad it will be.

Someone could make a quantum computer with that money! Lets hope it's fast enough to factor RSA-2048. :smile:

It takes simple Mod arithmetic to calculate G mod 46:

[CODE](18:58) gp > Mod(3^3,46)
%12 = Mod(27, 46)
(13:26) gp > Mod(3^9,46)
%13 = Mod(41, 46)
(13:26) gp > Mod(3^27,46)
%14 = Mod(13, 46)
(13:26) gp > Mod(3^81,46)
%15 = Mod(35, 46)
(13:26) gp > Mod(3^243,46)
%16 = Mod(3, 46)
(13:26) gp > Mod(3^729,46)
%17 = Mod(27, 46)
(13:26) gp > Mod(3^2187,46)
%18 = Mod(41, 46)
(13:26) gp > Mod(3^19683,46)
%19 = Mod(35, 46)[/CODE]

Notice the pattern: 27,41,13,35,3,27,41,...
G mod 46 = one of the 5 numbers ^ above.
G mod 5 = 2 so G mod 46 = 3. Did I get that right?

Well, the numbers are in for tonight; we're just waiting on the officials to figure out if any/how many winning tickets there are....

The numbers are 2, 4, 23, 38, 46, Mega 23......good luck!

[As an aside, I heard today that someone stopped at the store at [URL="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hallelujah_Junction,_California"]Hallelujah Junction[/URL] driving a Lamborghini and bought $5000 worth of tickets.....I have not seen a news report on that yet, but I guess i coudl believe it. I also heard that the wait was >3.5 hours in line down there.]

[QUOTE=schickel;294934]I also heard that the wait was >3.5 hours in line down there.][/QUOTE]I think these lotteries are a fabulous way for people to pay tax. Many people seem more than happy to pay and naturally the gov are more than happy to take. A win-win.

[size=1]It is a a tax on the numerically challenged, just like the casinos.[/size]

I always think of this:
[QUOTE=George Orwell]They were talking about the Lottery. Winston looked back when he had gone thirty metres. They were still arguing, with vivid, passionate faces. The Lottery, with its weekly pay-out of enormous prizes, was the one public event to which the proles paid serious attention. It was probable that there were some millions of proles for whom the Lottery was the principal if not the only reason for remaining alive. It was their delight, their folly, their anodyne, their intellectual stimulant. Where the Lottery was concerned, even people who could barely read and write seemed capable of intricate calculations and staggering feats of memory. There was a whole tribe of men who made a living simply by selling systems, forecasts, and lucky amulets. Winston had nothing to do with the running of the Lottery, which was managed by the Ministry of Plenty, but he was aware (indeed everyone in the party was aware) that the prizes were largely imaginary. Only small sums were actually paid out, the winners of the big prizes being non-existent persons. In the absence of any real inter-communication between one part of Oceania and another, this was not difficult to arrange.[/QUOTE]
[url]http://www.george-orwell.org/1984/7.html[/url]

:popcorn:

[QUOTE=schickel;294633]Authorities have warned people in the US to be on the look out for MegaMillions (sm)(tm)(r) Mania. Sufferers from this syndrome will be afflicted with grandiose dreams and yearings for the vast wealth afforded by the March 30 drawing.

[SIZE="1"](Let me know if you have a set of numbers that you think is lucky....I might play them!)[/SIZE][/QUOTE]

don't look now but Maryland supposedly has the only winner right now nice 640 million win.someone says 3 in the comments actually.

Asumming 1000 $ spend a day...that's still 1752 year of spending...

[QUOTE=firejuggler;294958]Asumming 1000 $ spend a day...that's still 1752 year of spending...[/QUOTE]

you're forgetting that a little over 1/2 of that is taken away as tax.

[QUOTE=bcp19;294965]you're forgetting that a little over 1/2 of that is taken away as tax.[/QUOTE]

That's still more than a lifetime of spending. (Think of all the hardware!)

[QUOTE=schickel;294934]Well, the numbers are in for tonight; we're just waiting on the officials to figure out if any/how many winning tickets there are....

The numbers are 2, 4, 23, 38, 46, Mega 23......good luck!

[As an aside, I heard today that someone stopped at the store at [URL="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hallelujah_Junction,_California"]Hallelujah Junction[/URL] driving a Lamborghini and bought $5000 worth of tickets.....I have not seen a news report on that yet, but I guess i coudl believe it. I also heard that the wait was >3.5 hours in line down there.][/QUOTE]

How can the Mega natch another?
Does that mean you only have to have 5 correct to win?
Or is the Mega drawn and matched separately?

[QUOTE=petrw1;294975]How can the Mega natch another?
Does that mean you only have to have 5 correct to win?
Or is the Mega drawn and matched separately?[/QUOTE]Yes, the Mega Number (tm) is drawn and has to be matched separately. The jackpot is won by matching all 5 plus the Mega, while a 5/5 match wins the second tier prize (~$233,000 this draw in California.)

The first 5 numbers are drawn from a field of 56 numbers while the Mega is drawn from a field of 46.

When California switched their big game from 6/53 to SuperLotto Plus (tm) (5/47 + 1/27), the change was touted as a way to increase the number of ways a player could win, which is true: there are more prize tiers, but the odds also worsened for the jackpot, which advantages the state by increasing the chances that a jackpot will roll a couple of times....

[QUOTE=bcp19;294965]you're forgetting that a little over 1/2 of that is taken away as tax.[/QUOTE]Do you mean the difference between the announced jackpot amount (annuitized) versus the lump sum (cash value) option?

[QUOTE=schickel;294982]Do you mean the difference between the announced jackpot amount (annuitized) versus the lump sum (cash value) option?[/QUOTE]

where I live anything over 150,000 gets taxed at 50% between federal and provincial.

[QUOTE=schickel;294982]Do you mean the difference between the announced jackpot amount (annuitized) versus the lump sum (cash value) option?[/QUOTE]

Look at your original thumbnail: "Estimated Cash Value: $359,400,000"

Presumably that's what you can get out of lump sum or annuity (and the former is worth even less than the 359M). The US has a pretty high tax rate, and I imagine the State of California probably has a higher tax rate than the feds. (Of course, our tax rate is relatively low compared to sm88's reported Canadian tax rate, or what I'd guess European tax rates to be.)

[QUOTE=schickel;294982]Do you mean the difference between the announced jackpot amount (annuitized) versus the lump sum (cash value) option?[/QUOTE]

[B]11. What are the payout options?[/B]
If you are a Mega Millions jackpot winner, you will have the choice of a Cash Option or an Annual Payout. Annuity option: Provides annual payments over a 26-year period. For every $1,000,000 in the jackpot, you will receive approximately $38,500 per year before taxes. Cash option: A one-time, lump-sum payment that is equal [B]to all the cash in the Mega Millions jackpot prize pool[/B]. Prize claim parameters vary from state to state. Contact your Mega Millions state lottery for detailed information.

Hmm, take 640M now and pay ~320M in taxes or take 24.64M a year for 26 years and pay ~12.32M taxes per year. Which would you choose? Let's say you took the lump sum, invested it at 1% per year compounded monthly and withdrew and spent $16,000 a month (yearly income tax on your earnings would of course come out of that $16,000), at the end of the 26 years, you would have spent $4,992,000 and still have a balance of over $409M. Not bad, but what if we took the money as an annuity and got paid annually. We already know we'd get ~$12.32M a year after tax. If we do the same as above and invest the 12.32M each year and then withdraw and spend $16,000 a month (paying interest income tax from the $16,000), we'd still have spent almost $5M, but we'd only have $361M in then bank. Further, the lottery would only have to invest around 564M in a 1% annuity to pay your 2.1M a month. I wonder where that other $76M goes.....

Now, I may have this backward, and there is only 359.5M cash available, which is not only misleading but means the lottery's annuity earns a whopping 4.86%, in which case, taking the cash and 180M is far worse than taking the annual annuity payments, but you'd still lose 1/2 of the annuity to taxes.

[QUOTE=Dubslow;294986]Look at your original thumbnail: "Estimated Cash Value: $359,400,000"

I imagine the State of California probably has a higher tax rate than the feds.[/QUOTE]
Actually in this narrow case, Californians get a break because the state does not tax lottery winnings.
[QUOTE]3. How Does the Lottery’s Payment System Work?
By default all MEGA Millions jackpots are paid in 26 equal annual installments. A winner is given the opportunity to choose the cash value of their jackpot prize within 60 days following your approved claim. The payment option chosen will apply to all claimants in a multiple ownership claim.

Also by default, all SuperLotto Plus jackpots are paid in 26 graduated annual installments. Similarly, a winner has the opportunity to choose the cash value of their jackpot prize within 60 days following your approved claim. The payment option chosen will apply to all claimants in a multiple ownership claim.

You may select the payment option by filling out a California Lottery Jackpot Election Payment Form. You have the option to fill out this form at the District Office when you claim your prize or you can have the form sent to you. If taken home, the form must be notarized and returned to the Lottery within 60 days from the date that your claim is approved for payment. This is normally within a day or two of the date you submit your prize claim. Group winners of a jackpot prize must all choose the same payment option, otherwise the payments default to annual payments.

If you choose the cash option, the amount you receive will be less than the announced jackpot. The Lottery only has to invest about half the amount of the advertised jackpot to make up the entire amount in 26 years, the other half is made up of interest that accrues over those 26 years. In very simplified terms, if the announced jackpot was $7 million, the Lottery would only have to invest approximately $3.7 million in the beginning to make up the other half in interest over 26 years. If the cash option is chosen, the $3.7 million the Lottery would have invested becomes the cash option amount, minus the applicable federal tax withholding. This example is based on the average market costs, as of December 2006, of 26 annual payments funded by the U.S. Treasury Zero Coupon bonds. For SuperLotto Plus jackpot prizes, you will receive an amount equal to the net proceeds of the sale of bonds purchased to fund the 26 annual payments for that prize. This will be a single lump sum payment and is estimated at 45% to 55% of the estimated jackpot amount. With MEGA Millions jackpot prizes, you will receive the cash that would have been invested to provide 26 annual payments.

If you choose the annual payment option, based on a $7 million SuperLotto Plus jackpot, you would receive a first payment of $175,000 or 2.5% of the jackpot, minus federal tax. Over the course of the next 25 years, these payments will gradually increase each year until the final payment of $357,000 or 5.1% of the prize, minus federal tax, is reached. MEGA Millions jackpot prizes, on the other hand, are paid out in 26 equal payments (in thousands) with any residual amount calculated into the first payment.
Grand prize annuity winners from Scratchers® games will receive installment payments as specified in the game profile for that particular game.

4. Who Receives the Interest Earned On This Prize Money?
The Lottery currently purchases government securities to secure the future payments of your prize. Together the principal and interest earned by these bonds over a specified time make up the full amount of the prize. In effect, each year a portion of the securities mature and make up that year’s payment.[/QUOTE][QUOTE]6. What Will I Pay in Taxes?
You’ll be happy to learn that Lottery prizes are exempt from California state and local personal income taxes. However, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) requires the California Lottery to withhold federal taxes from many prizes.[/QUOTE]

What all the above boils down to is that, yes, they do actually "cheat" when they announce the jackpot, because there was only (in this case) $462 million in the bank. The jackpot gets announced as [SIZE="5"]$640 million[/size][sup]*[/sup]. however.

To achieve the mega payouts, they purchase bonds to boost the "value" of the jackpot from what the actual cash value is to what the annuitized payout is. And yes, California and several others do not tax residents' winnings, so the tax rate would be just the maximum Federal rate.

I always have trouble trying to explain this to players who complain about "if you take the lump sum they take 50% out in taxes off the top".....no, they only have ~1/2 the money in the bank and buy bonds to fill the gap.

Ironically, the cash value lately is much higher than average, since they usually buy US Treasury Notes, and as we all know, lately they aren't paying very much (2.8% for 20-year bonds....)

----
[sup]*[/sup][SIZE="1"]Paid in 26 annual installments.[/SIZE]

Oh, BTW, there were 3 winning tickets in Maryland, Illinois, and Kansas, good for $213,333,333 each.

PS. This could go in the "WTF news" thread, but since we have a lottery thread going here, here is a Michigan lottery winner ($1,000,000) who still collects $200/month in SNAP benefits (food stamps....)

[youtube]tUyNavpYZ48[/youtube]

[SIZE="1"]She thinks she deserves it because she's paying for two houses and is currently unemployed....[/SIZE]

[QUOTE=bcp19;294998]
Now, I may have this backward, and there is only 359.5M cash available, which is not only misleading but means the lottery's annuity earns a whopping 4.86%, in which case, taking the cash and 180M is far worse than taking the annual annuity payments, but you'd still lose 1/2 of the annuity to taxes.[/QUOTE]
Where does the inflation goes in all this calculus? :D

edit: this is gorgeous: yahoo selection of the [URL="http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/upshot/best-reader-comments-mega-millions-020248056.html"]best reader comments[/URL] about.

It's a matter of mathematical folklore that the expected value of a $1 lottery ticket is 50 cents.

Question:
Just before this round of "Mega Millions" mania got started, was the expected value of a "Mega Millions" lottery ticket actually above its purchase price?

Incidentally, the usual effect of winning a large lottery prize is a high ride for a few years, then bankrupt...

Watch out, it's gonna happen again!

Ironically, just over a year later, here we are again. When PowerBall missed on Wednesday, the jackpot estimate was $360M; the initial Thrusday morning estimate was up to $475M; by Thursday afternoon it was up to..... well, see for yourself.

I've got a bet with myself that the final jackpot will be well over $600M and if it misses on Saturday, the lottery association may well get their [URL="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Powerball#2012_changes.3B_California_joins_April_2013"]wish[/URL]:[quote=WikiPedia]These changes were made to increase the frequency of nine-figure jackpots; [B]a Powerball spokesperson believed a $500 million jackpot was feasible[/B] (it became a reality within the year), [B][U]and that the first $1 billion jackpot in US history would occur by 2022[/U][/B]. (Ironically, less than three months after the Powerball changes, Mega Millions' jackpot reached $656,000,000 despite remaining a $1-per-play game.)[/quote]

On another note, I missed the story when it happened, but [URL="http://newsone.com/2050678/amanda-clayton-michigan-lottery-winner-dead-drug-overdose-food-stamp-fraud/"]Amanda Clayton[/URL], the Michigan lottery winner who kept on collecting public benefits, was found dead of a presumed drug overdose back in October.

[QUOTE=schickel;294690]Interesting psychology at play here: the odds are the same now as they are when the jackpot starts at $12M, in fact it would be better to play when the jackpot is smaller, since there will be (potentially) less winners, but people get into the crowd mentality.....[/QUOTE]

There's another factor at play, though: large jackpots (typically) come about because of many rollovers (i.e. drawings with no jackpot winner, where the jackpot pool becomes the starting pool for next drawing). So the question is, which effect is stronger? (for Powerball, since that's currently a large jackpot)

Based on [url]http://www.powerball.us/info/jackpot-draws.php[/url] (recent jackpots with only 1 rollover), [url]http://www.powerball.us/[/url] ($231.7M rolled over, $376.9 current - using cash, not annuity throughout, since that's the "real" value), and [url]http://www.powerball.com/real-letters.asp[/url] (suggests 30% of gross ticket sales is put toward the jackpot), I calculated the following:

$145.2M sold this time - 242M ticket
$376.9M, split (175+242)/175 ways (242 million tickets with a 1 in 175 million chance each of winning, means you can expect roughly 242/175 other winners, plus in this scenario you won), exp. jackpot winnings roughly $158.17M.

There's a minimum jackpot of $40M, and (what I'd guesstimate) 25M tickets sold for the first lottery after a jackpot, so ~0.14 other winners, for expected winnings of $35M. (even with the best-case small-lotto scenario of: "you are the only one to buy a ticket", the expected winnings from a jackpot is $40M) Better to expect $158.17M for a jackpot than $35M. If no winners occur for long enough, and there aren't too many tickets sold for the current drawing, you'll actually reach a point where you can expect (in a mathematical sense) more money than you put in. I don't know whether this could occur in real life, or if people would buy too many tickets and split the jackpot too much.

[QUOTE=schickel;294690]Interesting psychology at play here: the odds are the same now as they are when the jackpot starts at $12M, in fact it would be better to play when the jackpot is smaller, since there will be (potentially) less winners, but people get into the crowd mentality.....[/QUOTE]

No, no, no - "piling in once the pot gets huge" makes good sense. Think about it - the odds of your numbers winning may be the same, but think risk vs reward. All that prize money is "contributions" from previous unlucky entrants.

Interesting..... Either the news about California joining the PowerBall league was not heard by everyone, or they felt the $2 price was too high: for some reason the sales tonight were very much weaker than last year.

For the $656M MegaMillions jackpot last year, we sold just over $7K in MM tickets on the Friday of the drawing. With PowerBall at an announced $600M, we did just over $3K in PB tickets tonight....way weaker than I had anticipated.

[SIZE="1"]We're still waiting on the results to see if we have to show up for work on Monday.....[/SIZE]

[QUOTE=schickel;340919][SIZE="1"]We're still waiting on the results to see if we have to show up for work on Monday.....[/SIZE][/QUOTE]:down: I have to go to work next week. Looks like there was 1 winning ticket in Florida for $590.5M, and the match 5 prizes in California were in San Jose and Taft (down south....)

[QUOTE=ewmayer;340895]No, no, no - "piling in once the pot gets huge" makes good sense.[/QUOTE]Only as long as the influx of new purchases does not overwhelm the previous jackpot and push the EV back below 1.

If you only play the lottery when the EV is above 1 (i.e. one or more jackpots carried over) then perhaps it might make good sense to buy a ticket, but the bulk of the prize structure is extremely top heavy and only relatively few people make anything on the deal.

[QUOTE=schickel;340922]Looks like there was 1 winning ticket in Florida for $590.5M[/QUOTE]

Well, George lives in the Orlando area, so if we see where GIMPS gets a new server, ramps up production to petaflop scale, and starts offering $1,000,000 for new Mersenne primes, we'll know what happened...:wink: