Pre-emptive strike
 

It's now April 12th in much of the world, which is the
2nd anniversary of the most recent MP disvovery.
(I mean the computer, not Lycorn of course!)

In case someone is going to post something to the effect
that we are due another, I suggest they google "Poisson".
At the current rate, we expect one more discovery in the next 6 years.

Good to see that the business end of this enjoyable forum is maintaining
enthusiasm with GPUs and such technological improvements.
As I have said before, it only needs a 20% increase in speed per
year to maintain this expected discovery rate.

If discovering another Mersenne prime was important, I would
suggest that some publicist got a fraction of India and China involved.

David

[QUOTE=davieddy;258199]It's now April 12th in much of the world, which is the
2nd anniversary of the most recent MP disvovery.
(I mean the computer, not Lycorn of course!)

In case someone is going to post something to the effect
that we are due another, I suggest they google "Poisson".
At the current rate, we expect one more discovery in the next 6 years.

Good to see that the business end of this enjoyable forum is maintaining
enthusiasm with GPUs and such technological improvements.
As I have said before, it only needs a 20% increase in speed per
year to maintain this expected discovery rate.

If discovering another Mersenne prime was important, I would
suggest that some publicist got a fraction of India and China involved.

David[/QUOTE]


I know this won't likely help but if my math is correct if M(x) for x above 4, does divide into A003010(x-2) according to my math the other factor must be 14 mod 16, this comes from the facts :

1) 194 is 2 mod 16
2) 2^2-2 = 2
3) that to get from 15 mod 16 to 2 mod 16 every time you go down one when you add it again so 15-2 =13 + 1 ( original one) =14 so the other factor if the first 3 are true must be of the form 14 mod 16.

[QUOTE=science_man_88;258204]I know this won't likely help but if my math is correct if M(x) for x above 4, does divide into A003010(x-2) according to my math the other factor must be 14 mod 16, this comes from the facts :

1) 194 is 2 mod 16
2) 2^2-2 = 2
3) that to get from 15 mod 16 to 2 mod 16 every time you go down one when you add it again so 15-2 =13 + 1 ( original one) =14 so the other factor if the first 3 are true must be of the form 14 mod 16.[/QUOTE]

I don't know whether you ever gamble, but I recommend you don't.

I occasionally place a bet when I see favourable odds (or am drunk).

David

[QUOTE=davieddy;258205]I don't know whether you ever gamble, but I recommend you don't.

I occasionally place a bet when I see favourable odds (or am drunk).

David[/QUOTE]

sorry other 2* I'm forgetting to count today.

I'd say that [URL="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vostok_1"]April 12[/URL] is more important in my mind because of some other thingy happenning 50 years ago...

[QUOTE=Batalov;258213]I'd say that [URL="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vostok_1"]April 12[/URL] is more important in my mind because of some other thingy happenning 50 years ago...[/QUOTE]
Indeed. I was 11 at the time.
Ironic that he died piloting a plane a few years later (IIRC)

David

[URL]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yuri_Gagarin[/URL]

oops another error A003010(x-1) not x-2.

[QUOTE=davieddy;258199]In case someone is going to post something to the effect that we are due another, I suggest they google "Poisson".
At the current rate, we expect one more discovery in the next 6 years.[/QUOTE]

Seems to be supported by a recent observation that we are quite linearly completing LL for three 1-Million ranges per year.
[url]http://www.mersenneforum.org/showthread.php?p=257772#post257772[/url]
[url]http://www.mersenneforum.org/showpost.php?p=257785&postcount=14[/url]

and this chart
[url]http://v5www.mersenne.org/report_classic/[/url]
which I interpret to say we have about 27 more 1-Million ranges up to 79.3M which should talke 9 years at the rate of 3 per year and from which we expect to find 1.265 more Mersenne Primes.

Two fat ladies
 

[QUOTE=science_man_88;258217]oops another error A003010(x-1) not x-2.[/QUOTE]
I know I'm not a good one to talk,
but could you try to keep your typos private?

I find it irritating that the CAPS LOCK button is adjacent to the SHIFT
button.

That said, I recently suspected Xilman of inadvertently hitting the SM88 button.

David

[URL="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gbfnh1oVTk0"]Drink and Drive[/URL]

[QUOTE=davieddy;258222]I know I'm not a good one to talk,
but could you try to keep your typos private?

I find it irritating that the CAPS LOCK button is adjacent to the SHIFT
button.

That said, I recently suspected Xilman of inadvertently hitting the SM88 button.

David

[URL="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gbfnh1oVTk0"]Drink and Drive[/URL][/QUOTE]

could it be of any use ?

[QUOTE=science_man_88;258234]could it be of any use ?[/QUOTE]
Could what?

David

PS some pianos have 88 keys.

[url=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JNCWhdYmPoE]give me a bit of that piano on thos 88s[/url].

David

[QUOTE=davieddy;258238]Could what?

David

PS some pianos have 88 keys.

[url=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JNCWhdYmPoE]give me a bit of that piano on thos 88s[/url].

David[/QUOTE]


Could my idea on the needs of the other factor in the lucas lehmer sequence be of use! The 88 is my birth year, But I do know some keyboard. If I figure how to make sheet music on here maybe I'll try it later.

Thanks for the endorsement
 

[QUOTE=petrw1;258220]Seems to be supported by a recent observation that we are quite linearly completing LL for three 1-Million ranges per year.
[URL]http://www.mersenneforum.org/showthread.php?p=257772#post257772[/URL]
[URL]http://www.mersenneforum.org/showpost.php?p=257785&postcount=14[/URL]

and this chart
[URL]http://v5www.mersenne.org/report_classic/[/URL]
which I interpret to say we have about 27 more 1-Million ranges up to 79.3M which should talke 9 years at the rate of 3 per year and from which we expect to find 1.265 more Mersenne Primes.[/QUOTE]

My point really is that to maintain a MP per 6 years requires
1.06^3 speed increase per year.
One for the iterations, one for the time per iteration, and
one for the probabily.
Make that [URL="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R7llu2aQRSQ"]Log for my Baby and one more for the Road[/URL]

When (2008?) George wagered 50/50 with his interviewer on TV that
we wouldn't find another before 2012, that was a fair bet.

OK he lost.

But if we take the "half life" of the exponent to be about a ratio of 1.3,
he was near the mark.
We have hit a run of "7+ heads in a row". This is to be expected in
256 tosses of a coin. Not too freakish in 47 tosses.

David

So I should madly go out and blow another grand on computational lottery tickets? (In the form of CPU with GPU and Mobo, RAM, case, and electricity to support prime95/mfaktc/CUDAlucas etc?)

[QUOTE]I find it irritating that the CAPS LOCK button is adjacent to the SHIFT button.[/QUOTE]If you run Windows, you can use [URL="http://technet.microsoft.com/en-us/sysinternals/bb897578"]this[/URL]. In Linux it is trivial to remap keys.

[QUOTE=Christenson;258257]So I should madly go out and blow another grand on computational lottery tickets? (In the form of CPU with GPU and Mobo, RAM, case, and electricity to support prime95/mfaktc/CUDAlucas etc?)[/QUOTE]
Yes, just provided someone offers a prize 500,000 times the cost of
an LL test.

David

[QUOTE=Xyzzy;258262]If you run Windows, you can use [URL="http://technet.microsoft.com/en-us/sysinternals/bb897578"]this[/URL]. In Linux it is trivial to remap keys.[/QUOTE]When my eldest son was 8 or 9, I gave him my old Spectrum to play with.
Only trouble was the top right 8 keys had ceased to work.

He succeeded in replicating their functions via obscure combinations
of keys (memorized).
I would grudgingly write on a school report "Shows promise".

David

We used a typewriter until our senior year of high school. We had a computer for several years prior to that but we could never afford a printer.

Anyways, the typewriter was missing the "G" key, so we became quite proficient in the use of the thesarus.

Also, when we had a report to do, we used to ask the teacher to make sure whatever the report was about happened before 1956, since we had a complete 1956 edition of the Encyclopædia Britannica that we purchased at a yard sale for 10 dollars.

[QUOTE=davieddy;258271]Yes, just provided someone offers a prize 500,000 times the cost of
an LL test.

David[/QUOTE]
Well, that means the LL test has to cost about 20 cents, since a reasonable estimate of the effect of finding M48 is $100K in the positive direction.

Now Xilman would offer me the electricity for nearly free, since the waste heat warms his cold house, so we need to get 500LL tests out of a $100 CUDA card...might take a decade...

But I'm only human, therefore boundedly rational, and might want the toy!