[QUOTE=davar55;246143]What is the relationship between the OP and the subsequent meandering in this thread? Can't follow it.[/QUOTE]Are you referring to the Calvin Culus stuff, or which meandering do you mean?

[QUOTE=davieddy;245884]It's a pity really, cos that guy/gal has gotta lot to offer/honour
round here.

Sundance

Just ask us to stick around.[/QUOTE]

Two of a kind, moderators.

But doesn't a full house beat a pair of jacks?

[QUOTE=davar55;246528]Two of a kind, moderators.

But doesn't a full house beat a pair of jacks?[/QUOTE]

Now that's a humorous response, but will you stop this
monotonous appealing to Lefors?

Who are those guys?

[QUOTE=davar55;246528]Two of a kind, moderators.

But doesn't a full house beat a pair of jacks?[/QUOTE]

To stick to the OP instead of diverging, can you (if
you prefer evidence of humor rather than ideas)
address the original question without including a
musical reference (other than to, well, the good guys?)

Don't like including more than one joker in my poker deck.

No kidding.

[QUOTE=davar55;246572]To stick to the OP instead of diverging, can you (if
you prefer evidence of humor rather than ideas)
address the original question without including a
musical reference (other than to, well, the good guys?)

Don't like including more than one joker in my poker deck.

No kidding.[/QUOTE]
We've tried Bolivia.
We're in the deep doodah.
Without a paddle.
I've got a great idea.
How about Australia?

Butch

[URL="http://[URL="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xbYWkegobTU"]Raindrops"]www.youtube.com/watch?v=xbYWkegobTU]Raindrops[/URL][/url]

PS What took you so long?

PPS although I've been practicing (note the c) in the
Music thread, links don't always turn out as intended.
Hope you never have the misfortune of seeing a naked lady.

Cheesehead: the reason I label the infrastructure costs as "massive" is that they need to take place rapidly. The current transportation and energy infrastructure was built over the course of decades, not 5-10 years. If peak oil views are accurate, we've only got 5-10 years to produce trillions worth of conversion infrastructure. (Perhaps even less time!) Given we're in a recession and given the political unlikelihood of this, it really doesn't matter if we could install solar panels over every parking space or on every rooftop. Hydrogren and electric cars don't matter. These things are not going to be produced on the scale we need them before peak oil starts to create crippling oil prices for society.

As for the recession, yes I do expect it to last quite awhile. The US government is quite far in debt now with over $40 trillion in liabilities. Oil is $91.50 per barrel. The real estate market is still quite soft (despite what the banks and the government would like us to believe.) All it takes is an economic trigger in order to see another collapse. Various European countries aren't looking so hot either. In all likelihood, the federal government will continue its policy of spending by inflation. In the future, our US dollars won't buy as much. Basic living costs have been on the rise, and that's a trend that will continue.

In any case, even if we assume that the recession ends within the next year or so, peak oil problems are advancing quickly, whereas our society's response to those issues has been lackluster. Part of the overall case for peak oil is that the political and economic will just doesn't exist to implement the necessary preventive measures. That sort of collective foresight just doesn't seem to exist in Washington D.C. or in corporate board rooms. The politicians are mainly interested in getting re-elected, while the corporate leaders are mainly interested in maximizing next quarter's profits. Likewise, you don't see these groups acting quickly to prevent global warming. Our society isn't designed to tackle these sorts of collective action problems. Rather, it waits until a problem gets out of control, and only then does it respond.

[QUOTE=siegert81;246710]That sort of collective foresight just doesn't seem to exist in Washington D.C. or in corporate board rooms. The politicians are mainly interested in getting re-elected, while the corporate leaders are mainly interested in maximizing next quarter's profits. Likewise, you don't see these groups acting quickly to prevent global warming. Our society isn't designed to tackle these sorts of collective action problems. Rather, it waits until a problem gets out of control, and only then does it respond.[/QUOTE]I agree with this. However, that being the case, the dynamics of the situation will just have to play out. Each of us in small ways can help microproblems here or there but in the macro sense I just try to hope that a few positive things sporadically will unexpectedly pay off. One can only have as much planning as one has foresight, and as you've noted there are major disconnects on the macro scale.

[QUOTE=siegert81;246710]If peak oil views are accurate, we've only got 5-10 years to produce trillions worth of conversion infrastructure. (Perhaps even less time!)[/QUOTE]For perspective, world GDP (GWP) was about $62 trillion last year. ([URL="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_%28nominal%29"]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_%28nominal%29[/URL])

"trillions worth of conversion infrastructure" -- What sorts of things are you including there?

[quote]Given we're in a recession and given the political unlikelihood of this, it really doesn't matter if we could install solar panels over every parking space or on every rooftop. Hydrogren and electric cars don't matter. These things are not going to be produced on the scale we need them before peak oil starts to create crippling oil prices for society.[/quote]"crippling" -- Like the 1973-5 recession? Like the 2008-2009 recession? Can you cite a source for some estimate?

[quote]Oil is $91.50 per barrel. The real estate market is still quite soft (despite what the banks and the government would like us to believe.) All it takes is an economic trigger in order to see another collapse.[/quote]So, by "another" collapse, you're speaking of something about the same magnitude as the recent 2008-2009 drop?

[QUOTE=siegert81;246710]
As for the recession, yes I do expect it to last quite awhile. The US government is quite far in debt now with over $40 trillion in liabilities. Oil is $91.50 per barrel. The real estate market is still quite soft (despite what the banks and the government would like us to believe.) All it takes is an economic trigger in order to see another collapse. Various European countries aren't looking so hot either. In all likelihood, the federal government will continue its policy of spending by inflation. In the future, our US dollars won't buy as much. Basic living costs have been on the rise, and that's a trend that will continue.
[/QUOTE]
This is more on my mind these days than peak oil. It might actually end up being a left-handed blessing if depressed and miserable conditions cool consumption long enough for transition technologies and lumbering ideologies to make some needed adjustments.

Last year in the US there were about 1 million foreclosures. A quoted estimate for this year is 1.2 million. There are a few million delinquent mortgages that will have to work through some kind of pipeline (yes, I am pulling these numbers out of my hat but I have seen 3 million and also 5 million mentioned). One estimate is that there will be 13 million foreclosures before real estate markets recover. 2005 had only 100,000 foreclosures. At 2005 foreclosure rates it would obviously take decades to clear out all the foreclosures.

The House of Representatives had committee hearings on the on a property title shell game involving MERS Inc and MERS Corp (3 version of MERS, the 2nd became MERS Corp) purportedly acting as agent or mortgagee in a fandango that is too involved to describe here. A welter of problems and legal challenges could ensue but that is a story that will likely be have it's own Orwellian solution or Faustian bargain struck much like the recent tax compromise. 60% of US mortgages are in this MERS system.

Then there is the Euro. Paul Krugman has been talking about that lately and though I don't read his columns or advice prescriptively, there does seem to be trouble. He makes a contrast between US money with problems in Nevada and Euro money and problems in a member country.

These things are playing out now. Real Estate problems might make the banks fail again! I don't think the proletariat can take many more of the bailouts of major institutions.

Food prices seem on the rise and some shipping is taking longer routes to avoid piracy. Korea just sent a 300 troop destroyer to the region to deal the situation of a recently captured ship.

When Peak Oil occurs, it will be dealt with as best as possible. Regardless of potential magnitude, it will have to get in line. Sometimes actions are best taken in crisis. It might work out ok.

[QUOTE=only_human;246713]I agree with this. However, that being the case, the dynamics of the situation will just have to play out. Each of us in small ways can help microproblems here or there but in the macro sense I just try to hope that a few positive things sporadically will unexpectedly pay off. One can only have as much planning as one has foresight, and as you've noted there are major disconnects on the macro scale.[/QUOTE]

I'm helping out.... I bought a Prius. --> 50 MPG

[QUOTE=R.D. Silverman;246981]I'm helping out.... I bought a Prius. --> 50 MPG[/QUOTE]

Good for you. Note that hybrids (like all-electrics) re far from a panacea - the batteries use many exotic materials, and the rare-earth elements (despite the name being inaccurate based on pure scarcity metrics) used in the electric-drive magnets and batteries tend to be highly toxic to mine and refine. The west sees little of that pollution since it is nearly all "offshored", mainly to China. On the plus side, in response to the recent rare-earths embargoes by China, carmakers like Toyota are moving aggressively to productize battery and magnet technology not (or much less) dependent on rare earths ... classic example of a supply shortage leading to long-term beneficial innovation, much as I believe will result from high oil prices, despite the near-term economic pain.

Couple other brief notes:

- Peak Oil will play out more a long-term structural shift than a dramatic "shock" type event. Every increase in oil price brings additional supply into the profitable-extraction window. There may be some nasty spikes due to exogenous events such as related to the Iranian nuclear dilemma.

- The lack of charging infrastructure and the high price of electricity (esp. in places such as my home state of CA, where usage above a "base amount" set by the utilities costs even more than the everyday high price) will hobble the charge-requiring electrics. I saw a recent article that estimated that owning a typical all-electric (e.g. the Volt) would raise the electricity usage of a typical CA household by roughly 60%. Even if one managed to charge only at night (when rates are lower), that is pretty pricey. I'm not sure what the required gas price point is at which an all-electric becomes sufficiently cheaper (it needs to be, due to the inconvenience factor) than a gas/electric hybrid, but I suspect it is in the $10-per-gallon-or-more range. For that reason gas/electric hybrids (which will also continue to evolve - Bob's 50 mpg will someday not too far off seem quite clunky) will dominate the green-car market for the foreseeable future.