[QUOTE=chalsall;316829]

Interestingly, Isaac Asimov talked about "psychohistory" more than 50 years ago.[/QUOTE]

when I was about seven and my father read the Foundation Trilogy to me (and not those increasingly bad non-trilogy books) I wanted to be a Psychohistorian (in my head I was always a 2nd Foundationer.) When I was 11 and reading the Trilogy for myself I was horrified by the notion that free will could be trumped by mathematics. determinism vs. free will is not the gestalt that a pre-teen needs to dwell upon!

now, I'm pretty cool with it--though the maths got bigger. Take that Hari Seldon!

I'm pretty sure Salvor Hardin would have my vote this year.

[QUOTE=chalsall;316829]Isn't this (supposed to be) the whole point of economics?

Interestingly, Isaac Asimov talked about "psychohistory" more than 50 years ago.[/QUOTE]

Yes. The Philosopher Kings of the Foundation. That is really kind of spooky stuff. Best hope your PKoFs are well intended. But then, you know what is said to pave the Road to Heck.

[QUOTE=chappy;316832]...now, I'm pretty cool with it--though the maths got bigger. Take that Hari Seldon![/QUOTE]

Why did Hari Seldon fail to predict the future?

Because of free will and independent thought.

Why does economics fail the predict the future?

Same reasons....

for those interested in the tie situations:

[CODE]? select(v->#Vec(v)<11 && setminus(Vec(v),[4,6,9,10,13,15,18,20,29])==[] && setintersect(Vec(v),[29,29])!=[29,29] && setintersect(Vec(v),[20,20])!=[20,20] && setintersect(Vec(v),[18,18])!=[18,18] && setintersect(Vec(v),[15,15])!=[15,15] && setintersect(Vec(v),[13,13])!=[13,13] && setintersect(Vec(v),[10,10,10])!=[10,10,10] && setintersect(Vec(v),[9,9])!=[9,9] && setintersect(Vec(v),[6,6,6])!=[6,6,6] && setintersect(Vec(v),[4,4])!=[4,4],partitions(62,29))
%13 = [Vecsmall([13, 20, 29]), Vecsmall([15, 18, 29]), Vecsmall([4, 9, 20, 29]), Vecsmall([6, 9, 18, 29]), Vecsmall([9, 15, 18, 20]), Vecsmall([10, 10, 13, 29]), Vecsmall([4, 6, 10, 13, 29]), Vecsmall([4, 9, 10, 10, 29]), Vecsmall([4, 10, 10, 18, 20]), Vecsmall([4, 10, 13, 15, 20]), Vecsmall([6, 10, 13, 15, 18]), Vecsmall([9, 10, 10, 13, 20]), Vecsmall([9, 10, 10, 15, 18]), Vecsmall([4, 6, 6, 13, 15, 18]), Vecsmall([4, 6, 9, 10, 13, 20]), Vecsmall([4, 6, 9, 10, 15, 18]), Vecsmall([6, 6, 9, 10, 13, 18])][/CODE] gives 17 unique divisions of the remaining and some can add more through switching Wisconsin for Minnesota or Nevada for Iowa in fact in total I get 32 ways in which it can tie out of 2^11 ways the newest map known to me from abc can be coloured or 1/64 is the odds of a tie if random voting goes on.

[URL="http://www.salon.com/2012/11/03/why_is_the_left_defending_obama/"]Why is the left defending Obama?[/URL]

[quote]Let’s start with a basic problem – why is Obama in a tight race? Mitt Romney is more caricature than candidate, a horrifically cartoonish plutocrat whose campaign is staffed by people that allow secret tapings of obviously offensive statements. The Republican base finds Romney uninspiring, and Romney has been unable to provide one good reason to choose him except that he is not the incumbent. Yet, Barack Obama is in a dog fight with this clown. Why? It isn’t because a few critics are writing articles in places like Salon. The answer, if you look at the data, is that Barack Obama has been a terrible President and an enemy to progressives. Unemployment is high. American household income since the recovery started in 2009 has dropped 5%. Poverty has increased substantially. Home equity – the main store of wealth for the middle class – has dropped by $5-7 trillion, in contrast to the increase in financial asset values held by Obama’s friends and donors. And this was done explicitly through Obama’s policies.
...
Mike Lofgren, a Republican staffer for 28 years who resigned in 2011 and now seems to think it’s his role to speak for Democrats,goes down this road. First, he argues Obama did not break his campaign promises, that “progressives are deceiving themselves if they think they have been deceived by Obama”. This is simply, baldly untrue. Obama broke many campaign promises. Here’s a [URL="http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2012/09/broken-democratic-platform-promises-from-2008.html"]list[/URL]. My favorite is Obama’s promise to renegotiate NAFTA. Obama was so cynical about this promise during his 2008 campaign that he sent his chief economist Austan Goolsbee to Canada during the campaign to [URL="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/04/us/politics/04nafta.html?_r=0"]explain privately to Canadian elites he had no intention of following through on it[/URL]. Obama lies, a lot, and he lies about important things that matter. [/quote]

So Obama's terrible, Romney's terrible, we're all screwed.

On the eve of the election, I notice Mish's meta-analysis is predicting a [url=http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/11/90-chance-of-obama-win-three-things.html]90% chance of an Obama win[/url], mainly because it is highly unlikely that all of the allegedly "close" states (most of which have Obama with a slight lead inside polling error) have polling errors in the same direction, that is, the direction of overstating Obama's chances.

Dubslow,

Obama is terrible because he had no executive experience when he started, and has proven he isn't a good leader. His experience in politics was voting "present", and towing the liberal line. He had no experience with bipartisanship (and still doesn't).

Romney is not perfect, but if he wins will be a much better president. He has executive experience, has some good plans to actually fix problems in the tax scheme, and has experience getting bipartisan support.

-------

ewmayer,

You are right, modulo the following possibilities (and others):
1) Some of the polls are skewed to give democrats +9%(!) over Republicans. That turnout is unlikely.
2) Some people finally decide on election day, and those people often break *against* the incumbent.
3) A lot of the vote is decided by turn-out. One candidate can win if his base is more motivated than the other. Sometimes this is determined by issues on the ballot (like same-sex marriage), etc..., and sometimes just by the ground support.

[QUOTE=Dubslow;317131]So Obama's terrible, Romney's terrible, [I]we're all screwed[/I].[/QUOTE]

No. You're not screwed. You have a choice before you. Unlike many on this (as my father used to say) Bloody Ball of Wax.

Do you choose to vote for the "black guy" who was a professor of law and actually talks in paragraphs?

Or do you choose to vote for the "white guy" who made over a billion dollars, but kept his personal income "off shore" because he could?

Do you want someone who actually understands the law in the White House, or someone who knows how to maximize his own personal upside?

Seems pretty black and white to me....

chalsall,

This is not the place for racism or race-baiting. :big thumbs down:

[QUOTE=Zeta-Flux;317155]chalsall,

This is not the place for racism or race-baiting. :big thumbs down:[/QUOTE]

I agree.

But let's all be honest, shall we -- this is what this race (no joke intended) has come down to.

You have (in my opinion) a [B][I][U]VERY[/U][/I][/B] capable incumbent who was handed a bad hand of cards by the Republicans.

Then you have a Republican candidate who makes George W. Bush look Jamaican.

Please trust me when I say (as a Canadian) you don't want a Mormon running your country. The middle "M" should be silent.

[QUOTE=chalsall;317159]I agree.

But let's all be honest, shall we -- this is what this race (no joke intended) has come down to.

You have (in my opinion) a [B][I][U]VERY[/U][/I][/B] capable incumbent who was handed a bad hand of cards by the Republicans.

Then you have a Republican candidate who makes George W. Bush look Jamaican.

Please trust me when I say (as a Canadian) you don't want a Mormon running your country. The middle "M" should be silent.[/QUOTE]

chalsall,

The "bad hand of cards" was handed to Obama by a Democratically controlled senate and congress. But I don't have a beef with your opinion of Obama and his inheritance.

I do, however, continue to find your race-baiting ignorant and disgusting. And no, the election does not boil down to race.

And by the way, I am a Mormon. ;-)