[QUOTE=petrw1;256610]Just as a point of note, independants have done a good amount of factoring ahead of the wave in the 86, 88 and 90M ranges.
(In fact the 90M range is yours).[/QUOTE]

Yes, and I'll probably not get it to P-1 depth before the wave hits me.

[QUOTE=davar55;256091]An update on a minor milestone:

From 23 Jan 11

GIMPS is 19 + 108 + 177 = 304 LL tests, all DC, from proving
all mersenne prime exponents < 24000000 have been found,
and are 40 in number.

From 28 Jan 11

GIMPS is 16 + 104 + 165 = 285 LL tests from proving
all mersenne prime exponents < 24000000 have been found,
and are 40 in number.

From 19 Mar 11 (today)

GIMPS is 9 + 66 + 108 = 183 LL tests from proving
all mersenne prime exponents < 24000000 have been found,
and are 40 in number.

So in 5 days (23 Jan to 28 Jan) the milestone got 19 tests closer,
and in 50 days (28 Jan to 19 Mar) it got 102 tests closer.
At this rate, the milestone may be reached about 20 Jun 2011.[/QUOTE]

The decay in number of old-aged exponents remaining is "exponential".

The chance of any one of them popping their clogs by next week is "slim".
When N remain, the expected number of deceases is N*"slim".

Methusalah

A minor milestone update:

23 Jan 11: 304
28 Jan 11: 285
19 Mar 11: 183
30 Mar 11: 155 = 1 + 60 + 94

As of today, GIMPS is 155 LL tests from proving
all mersenne prime exponents < 24000000 have been found,
and are 40 in number.

So in 5 days (23 Jan to 28 Jan) the milestone got 19 tests closer,
and in 50 days (28 Jan to 19 Mar) it got 102 tests closer.
In 11 days (19 Mar to 30 Mar) it got 28 tests closer.

At this irregular rate, the milestone may eventually be reached.
Only Prime95 knows for sure.

[QUOTE=davar55;257080]
At this irregular rate, the milestone may eventually be reached.
Only Prime95 knows for sure.[/QUOTE]
As we all know, George is an intelligent, diligent, friendly man.

He is also sufficiently modest to admit that he isn't omniscient.

David

PS Any idea of his holiday plans?

[QUOTE=davar55;257080]A minor milestone update:

23 Jan 11: 304
28 Jan 11: 285
19 Mar 11: 183
30 Mar 11: 155 = 1 + 60 + 94

As of today, GIMPS is 155 LL tests from proving
all mersenne emirp exponents < 24000000 have been found,
and are 40 in number.

So in 5 days (23 Jan to 28 Jan) the milestone got 19 tests closer,
and in 50 days (28 Jan to 19 Mar) it got 102 tests closer.
In 11 days (19 Mar to 30 Mar) it got 28 tests closer.

At this irregular rate, the milestone may eventually be reached.
Only emirp95 knows for sure.[/QUOTE]

As i have mentioned before to UncWilly, this exercise is like
watching paint dry.

By far the most interesting aspect of the limited data you quote
is the drop to 1 in exponents below 22M.
The smell of poaching positively reeks.

As you preumably know, a progressive waveform is
characterized by y = f(x - ct).
c in this case is ~1M per 6 months.

Unless you wish to retract your estimate of July this year, perhaps
you could explain why you think the waveform (f) might suddenly
shorten, despite it having had 15 years to "stabilize"?

David

[quote]As i have mentioned before to UncWilly, this exercise is like watching paint dry.
By far the most interesting aspect of the limited
data you quote is the drop to 1 in exponents below 22M.
The smell of poaching positively reeks.
As you preumably know, a progressive waveform is characterized
by y = f(x - ct). c in this case is ~1M per 6 months.
Unless you wish to retract your estimate of July this year, perhaps
you could explain why you think the waveform (f) might suddenly
shorten, despite it having had 15 years to "stabilize"?
[/quote]I was going to ask, but you anticipated, a few questions.

I presume the exact value of those now 155 exponents is currently
known to some select few, especially that one 21xxxxxx, which I'm
guessing is the exponent referred to earlier in this Newer Milestone
Thread as possibly the target of g-poaching? (g for gimps)

In the words of one contributor here, "poaching bad."
Does everyone agree on that issue?

Could someone detail or point out what the gimps wavefront
specifically refers to? Isn't it more than just our throughput
of LL tests? Or am I confusing wavefront with waveform?

And as for the rate at which paint dries, or water in watched
pots boils, or grass grows, those are the province of physics
and not, I think, a matter to be quarreled over. When it comes
to what one watches and why, how about live and let live?

BTW I thought I phrased my "prediction" in enough qualifiers,
even mentioning my implicit assumption.

[QUOTE=davar55;257283]I presume the exact value of those now 155 exponents is currently known to some select few, especially that one 21xxxxxx,

Could someone detail or point out what the gimps wavefront
specifically refers to? Isn't it more than just our throughput
of LL tests? Or am I confusing wavefront with waveform?
[/QUOTE]

1. If you look at the milestones page:
[url]http://www.mersenne.org/report_milestones/[/url]
it is quite obvious which 21x exponent is yet to be completed.

Also if you look here:
[url]http://mersenne.org/assignments/[/url]
you can see what exponents are currently assigned in a specified range and of a specified work type keeping in mind that it will list some extra assignments that are NOT required (ie in your 155). Whether it is the "p' word or whether assignments age off, get reassigned and then resurrect, there are still some active DC's for example for exponents already DC'd. It takes a little more effort to sngle these out.

2. I think most of us define "wavefront" as where in general exponents of that type are currently being handed out by the server. That is, virtually all exponents below that are currently assigned and active (except the odd that that just expired or was released by the user). We exclude those manually assigned in small bunches further down. It is probably best depicted visually here:
[url]http://www.mersenne.org/emirpnet/[/url]
You would likely agree that the DC "wavefront" is in the 27M range and the LL wavefront" is in the 53M range for example.

[QUOTE=davar55;257283]I was going to ask, but you anticipated, a few questions.


In the words of one contributor here, "poaching bad."
Does everyone agree on that issue?

[/QUOTE]

As the actress said to the bishop, "Let's stop beating about the bush".

We are speaking of the prolific Richard Cheesehead here.

I love poached eggs on toast.
I have also done a few LL tests on a few computers.
My Pentium II took a few months to verify that 17xxxxxx
was not prime. Shortly after this effort, the PSU went bang
due to nicotine inhalation, taking the motherfuckerboard with it.

David

Another update on a minor milestone:

23 Jan 11: 304
28 Jan 11: 285
19 Mar 11: 183
30 Mar 11: 155 = 1 + 60 + 94
08 Apr 11: 147 = 1 + 58 + 88

As of today, GIMPS is 147 LL tests from proving
all mersenne prime exponents < 24000000 have been found,
and are 40 in number.

If the rate remains at 8/9 = 0.889 tests per day,
this milestone will be reached in 147 * 8/9 = 131 days,
i.e. circa Aug 17 2011 (AD), revising my original
estimate of Jun 20 2011 (AD).

A further a minor milestone:

23 Jan 11: 304
28 Jan 11: 285
19 Mar 11: 183
30 Mar 11: 155 = 1 + 60 + 94
08 Apr 11: 147 = 1 + 58 + 88
13 Apr 11: 142 = 1 + 57 + 84

As of today, GIMPS is 142 LL tests from proving
all mersenne prime exponents < 24000000 have been found,
and are 40 in number.

If the rate remains at 1 = 1.000 tests per day,
this milestone will be reached in 142 days,
i.e. circa Sep 1 2011 (AD), revising my earlier estimates.

OTOH if the rate increases to two LL DC's per day,
and no other considerations come in to play,
the expected milestone achievement date is circa June 23 2011 (AD).

[SIZE=2]Countdown to testing all exponents below M(42643801) once: 1,000[/SIZE]