I'm about a day late with the news...
 

...but there are now less than 2,000 exponents (1,995 to be exact) left below M43112609 that require a first-time test. (I have six of them.)

Take your pick, depending on how optimistic you're feeling this week...

ETA: 5/3/2011, using a linear model, and the clearing pace since 5/21/2010.

ETA: 9/15/2011, using a linear model, and the clearing pace since 1/1/2011.

ETA: 10/13/2014, using a decaying exponential model, and the half-life based on # cleared since 5/21/2010.

ETA: 12/11/2015, using a decaying exponential model, and the half-life based on # cleared since 1/1/2011.

My guess is that we'll reach the milestone by December 31, 2011. Let the race begin!

Yesterday I started "first-time-tests" for 3 LL exponents below 43,112,609, they should be completed on March 16th.

[QUOTE=chalsall;252791]Hey All.

Just in case you didn't notice, all exponents below 1 billion have now (as of the last 36 hours) been factored to at least 60.[/QUOTE]
:bounce: Now that's a milestone! Well done to all involved! :bow:

[QUOTE=markr;253489]:bounce: Now that's a milestone! Well done to all involved! :bow:[/QUOTE]

Not really. In reality, it was rather silly, based on the level of P-1 and ECM work already done on them -- it was known that no factors would be found. But Monst and I often do things which don't make sense... :smile:

[QUOTE=chalsall;253531]Not really. In reality, it was rather silly, based on the level of P-1 and ECM work already done on them -- it was known that no factors would be found. But Monst and I often do things which don't make sense... :smile:[/QUOTE]
I knew that - except perhaps the last sentence - and I still think it's a milestone. :smile:

On Jan 23
[QUOTE]All exponents below 21,128,461 have been tested and double-checked.
All exponents below 37,591,483 have been tested at least once.

Countdown to testing all exponents below M(42643801) once: 1,456
Countdown to testing all exponents below M(43112609) once: 2,233

Countdown to proving M(24036583) is the 41st Mersenne Prime: 427
Countdown to proving M(25964951) is the 42nd Mersenne Prime: 19,642
[/QUOTE]

Now:
All exponents below 21,260,417 have been tested and double-checked.
All exponents below 37,591,483 have been tested at least once.

Countdown to testing all exponents below M(42643801) once: 1,189
Countdown to testing all exponents below M(43112609) once: 1,890

Countdown to proving M(24036583) is the 41st Mersenne Prime: 298
Countdown to proving M(25964951) is the 42nd Mersenne Prime: 15,878

[QUOTE=Uncwilly;254588]On Jan 23



Countdown to proving M(24036583) is the 41st Mersenne Prime: 298
[/QUOTE]

Slowly but surely...

An update on a minor milestone:

From 23 Jan 11

GIMPS is 19 + 108 + 177 = 304 LL tests, all DC, from proving
all mersenne prime exponents < 24000000 have been found,
and are 40 in number.

From 28 Jan 11

GIMPS is 16 + 104 + 165 = 285 LL tests from proving
all mersenne prime exponents < 24000000 have been found,
and are 40 in number.

From 19 Mar 11 (today)

GIMPS is 9 + 66 + 108 = 183 LL tests from proving
all mersenne prime exponents < 24000000 have been found,
and are 40 in number.

So in 5 days (23 Jan to 28 Jan) the milestone got 19 tests closer,
and in 50 days (28 Jan to 19 Mar) it got 102 tests closer.
At this rate, the milestone may be reached about 20 Jun 2011.

Hmmm... a bit too optimistic, me thinks.

The rate of 2exps/day measured over the last 50 days will tend to go down as it always does as the milestone approaches.
I don´t expect the milestone to be cleared before October/November (unless poachers come into play in a notorious manner).

[QUOTE=ckdo;251703]February 4, 2011: The trial factoring wavefront hits 81M.

That's 57 days for 1M this time.[/QUOTE]

March 3, 2011: The trial factoring wavefront hits 82M.
March 24, 2011: The trial factoring wavefront hits 83M.

That's 27 days for 1M, and 21 days for 1M, respectively.

[QUOTE=ckdo;256576]March 3, 2011: The trial factoring wavefront hits 82M.
March 24, 2011: The trial factoring wavefront hits 83M.

That's 27 days for 1M, and 21 days for 1M, respectively.[/QUOTE]

Just as a point of note, independants have done a good amount of factoring ahead of the wave in the 86, 88 and 90M ranges.
(In fact the 90M range is yours).