[QUOTE=mdettweiler;228212]that actually means that after testing exactly 5490 candidates, there is a ~62% chance that a prime will have been found. (Why this is involves some more advanced probability math which I myself don't entirely understand;[/QUOTE]

If you ran many many tests you would expect to find one per 5490 tests. But in any particular set of tests you might, if you were lucky, find two or three or four or even more. The only way both statements can be true is that there must be some runs of 5490 that find none.

It's pretty basic probability that if the probability of finding none in one test is 5489/5490, then the probability of finding none in 5490 independent tests must be (5489/5490)^5490. Nothing advanced yet, and that is good enough to get your 62% figure.

The advanced part comes from the observation that this is approximately e^(-1), and a few other limit consequences.

William

730T-735T complete, 7102 factors: [URL]http://www.sendspace.com/file/lnqulo[/URL]

Reserving 900T-905T.

Reserving 905T-910T. Lennart

550T-750T for n=485000-495000 finished. Taking 750T-950T.

[URL]http://pgllr.mine.nu/privat/local/tps_905T-910T.txt[/URL]

905T-910T complete

Reserving 920T-925T


Lennart

910T-920T complete, about 11300 factors found:

[URL]http://www.sendspace.com/file/x6ly6k[/URL]

I'll get 925T-930T.

[URL="http://pgllr.mine.nu/privat/local/tps_920T-925T.txt"]http://pgllr.mine.nu/privat/local/tps_920T-925T.txt [/URL]

920T-925T Complete

Reserving 930T-940T

Lennart

925T-930T complete, about 5700 factors found:

[URL]http://www.sendspace.com/file/k8o6d0[/URL]

Reserving 940T-950T.

940T-950T done:

[URL]http://www.sendspace.com/file/a46j8s[/URL]

About 11100 factors found.

edit: Just realized that this is the 2500th post in the TPS forum.

[URL="http://pgllr.mine.nu/privat/local/tps_930T-940T.txt"]http://pgllr.mine.nu/privat/local/tps_930T-940T.txt [/URL]

930T-940T Complete Lennart

900T-905T complete, 5713 factors: [URL]http://www.sendspace.com/file/w449t1[/URL]

Reserving 950T-955T.