[QUOTE][i]Originally posted by mephisto [/i]
[B]True enough - as motivation factors go, it is hard to beat $100K :) [/B][/QUOTE]

The [url=http://www.eff.org/awards/prime-release1.html]EFF announced the $100K prize on March 31 1999[/url], and the first 10-million digit primes started being assigned by PrimeNet in September 1999.


However, that had no visible effect on the graph: it maintained the same straight line trajectory for another two years.

The change of slope in late 2001 seems to coincide with the arrival of Pentium 4s. See the [url=http://opteron.mersenneforum.org/png/machines.png]graph of machine types[/url] over time. It might also coincide with the [url=http://www.mersenne.org/13466917.htm]discovery of M39 on Nov 14 2001[/url] (exactly two years ago today).

[QUOTE][i]Originally posted by QuintLeo [/i]
[B]I suspect an additional factor may have been the completion of RC5-64 - when one of the largest (by participant count) DC projects ends, that leaves a LOT of folks (like me) looking for something new to do.... [/B][/QUOTE]

[url=http://www.distributed.net/pressroom/news-20020926.html]RC5-64 ended July 14 2002[/url]. Or actually, the winning key was not noticed until Aug 12 2002, and an announcement was made Sep 25 2002.

There was no noticeable change in the slope of the curve at those times (although there's a bit of a data gap at that point).

Maybe the bulk of new users taking the default work "that makes the most sense" took a dramatic increase in first time LL testing due to typical machine performance suddenly being above the threshold criteria for that task. Perhaps there would have been a slope increase in trial factoring too otherwise.

Is there any way of estimating whether the 'increased increase' stems mainly from

- more participants (suggesting publicity around the M39 discovery)
- more computers (suggesting more dedicated users or easier access to computing resources)
- or merely quicker computers (P4 and code improvements)?

Or even how much each of these factors have contributed?

BTW, thanks for very nice and clarifying graphs!
:grin:

See also the [url=http://www.mersenneforum.org/showthread.php?s=&threadid=1125]GIMPS losing popularity?[/url] thread, where Complex33 has posted highly detailed graphs (hourly data) of the LL-testing rate in P90 years (but only since May 2003).

As of December 5th, 2003:

The virtual machine's sustained throughput* is currently 9511 billion floating point operations per second (gigaflops), or 790.1 CPU years (Pentium 90Mhz) computing time per day. For the testing of Mersenne numbers, this is equivalent to 339 Cray T916 supercomputers, or 169.5 of Cray's most powerful T932 supercomputers, at peak power. As such, PrimeNet ranks among the most powerful computers in the world. (*Measured in calibrated P5 90Mhz, 32.98 MFLOP units: 25658999 FPO / 0.778s using 256k FFT.)

9.511 Teraflops!

[QUOTE][i]Originally posted by jinydu [/i]
[B]
9.511 Teraflops! [/B][/QUOTE]

Yes :) I wonder, if we reach 10 TFlops average when the first LL-results from the new participants trickle in... I bet on it!

Thereafter it's time to go for 1000 P90 CPU-years/day :grin: