Tweet linked in today's NC [url=https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2020/01/links-1-25-2020.html]Links[/url] page - the "outside of Twitter" bit baffles me, probably a typo:
[quote]HOLY MOTHER OF GOD – the new coronavirus is a 3.8!!! How bad is that reproductive R0 value? It is thermonuclear pandemic level bad – never seen an actual virality coefficient outside of Twitter in my entire career. I’m not exaggerating… #WuhanCoronovirus #CoronavirusOutbreak pic.twitter.com/6mmxIHL9Ue

— Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) [url=https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1220919589623803905]January 25, 2020[/url][/quote]
Not an auspicious way to start the Year of the Rat ... Per Wikipedia, the rat displaced the cat from the Chinese zodiac:
[i]
A popular modern story has it that the order of the animals in the twelve-year cycle was due to a competition between animal candidates, held by the ruler of Heaven, Earth, and Hell -- the Jade Emperor. According to one version of this tale, the emperor's advisors selected twelve candidates from among the animal types, including the rat and the cat. The winner was to be selected based upon merit, as to personal appearance, lifestyle, and contributions to the world. Before the competition, the cat asked the rat for a wake up call in order to get to the show on time; however, the rat apprehensive of the competition, especially as to the cat's apparent beauty, did not wake the cat, who then overslept (and, ever afterwards, the embittered cat became a ratter and a mouser). The Jade Emperor mystified as to why there were only eleven candidate animals to show up inquired of his servants. These servants hastily acquired the first possible replacement animal which they encountered, (a pig). After the start of the competition, the rat achieved first place by performing on the flute while upon the back of the ox. Impressed, the Jade Emperor placed the rat at the beginning of the twelve year cycle (and the ox second, for being so generous as to allow the rat to play the flute upon the ox's back). Then the other animals were placed in order according to the Jade Emperor's judgment.[/i]

[QUOTE=ewmayer;535964]Tweet linked in today's NC [url=https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2020/01/links-1-25-2020.html]Links[/url] page - the "outside of Twitter" bit baffles me, probably a typo:[/QUOTE]Probably this?

... never seen an actual virality coefficient [b]this high[/b] outside of Twitter ...

[QUOTE=retina;535965]Probably this?

... never seen an actual virality coefficient [b]this high[/b] outside of Twitter[/QUOTE]

That seems plausible. Saw somewhere else than Spanish Flu is estimated to have had R0 ~= 1.8. More bad news via [i]The Lancet[/i]:

[url=https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/24/coronavirus-infections-no-symptoms-lancet-studies/]New coronavirus can cause infections with no symptoms and sicken otherwise healthy people, studies show[/url] | STAT News
[quote]Two papers published Friday in the journal the Lancet offer some of the first rigorous analyses of patients who contracted a novel coronavirus that has broken out in China and spread to other countries. Among their discoveries: The virus does not only affect people with other, underlying health conditions, and people who are not showing symptoms can still be carrying the virus.[/quote]

Looking through the replies to DrEricDing is quite interesting.



1. It seems as if R0 has been corrected to 2.5.
[url]https://twitter.com/polytr0pe/status/1220944947861282816[/url]


2. There is a nice map showing the progress of the outbreak:
[url]https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6[/url]

[QUOTE=Till;536005]Looking through the replies to DrEricDing is quite interesting.

1. It seems as if R0 has been corrected to 2.5.
[url]https://twitter.com/polytr0pe/status/1220944947861282816[/url]

2. There is a nice map showing the progress of the outbreak:
[url]https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6[/url][/QUOTE]

Thanks - 2.5 is still frighteningly high. A good analogy with the epidemiologists' R0 is the branching ratio (neutron multiplier number) in fission reactions. Anything over 1 allows for a geometrically progressing chain reaction to occur, but usually real-world effects like neutrons escaping the mass before they have a chance to be captured by a fissile nucleus (victims dying or self-isolating before infecting others) mean one needs a bit higher than that. For a weapons-suitable chain reaction (= pandemic) one wants a branching ratio of around 2 or more. Pure U235 and Pu239, the principle fissile isotopes used in nuclear bomb cores, both have multipler numbers > 2.

[url=https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3047584/wuhan-coronavirus-confirmed-29-chinas-31-provinces]Wuhan coronavirus confirmed in 29 of China’s 31 provinces[/url] | South China Morning Post

[url=https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3047651/wuhan-officials-blamed-spread-china-coronavirus-hospitals-beg]Wuhan leaders blamed for spread of China coronavirus as hospitals beg for supplies, death toll rises[/url] | South China Morning Post

[url=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/inside-the-horrific-inhumane-animal-markets-behind-pandemics-like-coronavirus-2020-01-25]Inside the horrific, inhumane animal markets behind pandemics like coronavirus[/url] | MarketWatch -- Not dissimilar from Africa, where Ebola, and possibly AIDS, are thought to have leapt from animals to humans by way of bushmeat eating.

[url=https://www.cgtn.com/special/Battling-the-novel-coronavirus-What-we-know-so-far-.html]At least 2,070 coronavirus cases diagnosed in China, 56 dead[/url] | CGTV
[quote][b]Beijing to stop all inter-province shuttle buses from January 26[/b]

Beijing has announced that it will suspend all inter-province shuttle buses from January 26 amid the coronavirus outbreak, local authorities said.

[b]China to halt all outbound tourist groups amid coronavirus outbreak[/b]

China will halt all outbound tourist groups as of Monday, January 27, the China Tourism Association announced on Saturday.

The association said domestic flight and hotel bookings through travel agencies have been put on hold since January 24, while similar services for overseas destinations will be suspended from January 27.[/quote]

This is terrifying. Shutting down inter-provincial bus service and barring outgoing tourists are both rational, though draconian. However, it seems that seeds have already jetted across the world, and may sprout in any number of places. I wonder how less-controlled societies than China's will react to control measures for an epidemic. The polio epidemic was mostly before my time, but I grew up around at least one kid who had been hit pretty badly by it. It certainly resounded with the generation before me in the family. I'll bet the concept of quarantine will be hard to impart until, or if the disease has a great enough outbreak to truly scare people. But that standard falls in the "too late" category.

I have to reconsider my remarks on China's efforts to restrict the spread of coronavirus.

This excerpt from the following link states that shutting down transportation is counter-productive.
[URL]https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/jan/27/the-disease-always-gets-a-head-start-how-to-handle-an-epidemic-ebola-sars-coronavirus[/URL]
[QUOTE]Quarantining cities, as China has done to Wuhan in response to the coronavirus outbreak, can often make the epidemic worse, according to some experts.

“It causes mistrust in the government and panic and concern,” Phelan says. “People can’t access healthcare because public transport is shut down. Or they may do the opposite and overwhelm medical facilities. And how do you get in food and drugs for other non-coronavirus issues? It is a very heavy-handed move that has no evidence base behind it.”
[/QUOTE]

corona virus dashboard
 

Here is a dashboard from Johns Hopkins, supposedly updated frequently, of the outbreak of the virus in Asia:

[URL="https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6"]https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6[/URL]

Coronavirus panic spreads...
 

From today's trading, it looks like the stock markets have also come down with pneumonia:

Nikkei 225 -483.67 -2.03%
FTSE 100 -173.93 -2.29%
Euronext 100 -28.89 -2.49%
CAC 4 -161.24 -2.68%
DAX -371.91 -2.74%
Swiss Market Index -173.79 -1.60%
DJIA -453.93 -1.57%
NASDAQ -175.60 -1.89%

On the bright side,

Brent Crude Oil Futures -$1.77/barrel -2.92%
WTI Crude Oil Futures -$1.36/barrel -2.51%

so the price of gas (petrol) may be coming down a bit soon...

My partner says he lost about $3000. He has been expecting a drop, after this period of "Irrational Exuberance." He had pulled some investments from growth funds in the last few days in anticipation, and relocated them to less volatile funds.

[URL="https://www.quantamagazine.org/an-ethical-future-for-brain-organoids-takes-shape-20200123/"]An Ethical Future for Brain Organoids Takes Shape[/URL]

[URL="https://www.livescience.com/fruit-fly-high-resolution-brain-connectivity.html"]Google just created the most detailed image of a brain yet[/URL]

[URL="https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-01-horror-movies-brain-expertly.html"]Horror movies manipulate brain activity expertly to enhance excitement[/URL]

[URL="https://www.sciencealert.com/a-new-facility-has-opened-to-make-breathable-air-out-of-moon-dust"]A New Facility Is Set to Produce Oxygen From Moon Dust at an Unprecedented Scale[/URL]

[URL="https://www.quantamagazine.org/how-pi-connects-colliding-blocks-to-a-quantum-search-algorithm-20200121/"]How Pi Connects Colliding Blocks to a Quantum Search Algorithm[/URL]

[URL="https://www.nbcnews.com/health/aging/there-are-least-4-different-ways-aging-scientists-say-n1112796"]There are at least 4 different ways of aging, scientists say[/URL]

[URL="https://www.technologyreview.com/f/615061/this-weird-looking-pigeon-is-actually-a-drone-that-flies-with-real-feathers/"]This weird-looking pigeon is actually a drone that flies with real feathers[/URL]

[URL="https://greatergood.berkeley.edu/article/item/what_neuroscience_can_teach_us_about_aging_better"]What Neuroscience Can Teach Us About Aging Better[/URL]

[URL="https://phys.org/news/2020-01-harness-entire-spectrum-sunlight.html"]Researchers find a way to harness the entire spectrum of sunlight[/URL]