Did you create the smoothed red line, or was this a package from someplace? I notice that in the long trending sections the smoothed red line is always to the right of the detailed gray line. This is a problem with many smoothing methods. There are techniques to fix that. One of the simple techniques is called "twicing." This forms the "rough", so that

actual data = smooth data + rough data

Then apply the original smoothing process to the rough, and plot

smooth data + smoothed(rough data)

[QUOTE=wblipp;389299]Did you create the smoothed red line, or was this a package from someplace?[/QUOTE][url]https://www.fourmilab.ch/hackdiet/e4/[/url]
[url]https://www.fourmilab.ch/hackdiet/e4/pencilpaper.html#PencilFeedbackLab[/url]

[QUOTE=VBCurtis;389239]…one that just might get me back on a bicycle.[/QUOTE]One of our long-term goals is to get back on our bicycle

The roads here in Arkansas are very rough and the drivers are not "tuned in" to the presence of bicyclists. When we lived in the suburb-o-topia of North Raleigh it was like living in bicycle heaven.

We have a room full of bicycles. This one is our favorite.

Edit1: Since we are getting all personal here, we will share an almost-eight-year-old link where we go into a lot of detail about our bike, training and health. Note that most of the links are broken due to age and you have to be logged in to see the pictures. [URL]http://forums.thepaceline.net/showthread.php?t=25167[/URL]
Edit2: Here is another message from that forum where we admit to "doping". We guess the Internet never forgets! [url]http://forums.thepaceline.net/showthread.php?p=350180#post350180[/url]

[url]http://www.philly.com/philly/health/topics/HealthDay694355_20141205_Obesity-Related_Ills_May_Shave_Up_to_8_Years_Off_Your_Life__Study.html[/url]

Cycling is a national hobby here in the Netherlands. We have a serious national network of cycle tracks with their own signposts and traffic lights, tunnels you can cycle through to get past the runways to the airport terminal if you cycle to catch a plane, police officers who patrol on bicycles, etc.
[URL]http://www.nederlandfietsland.nl/en[/URL]

[QUOTE=Xyzzy;389333][url]http://www.philly.com/philly/health/topics/HealthDay694355_20141205_Obesity-Related_Ills_May_Shave_Up_to_8_Years_Off_Your_Life__Study.html[/url][/QUOTE]

Even more if you choke to death on food.

[QUOTE=Xyzzy;389325][url]https://www.fourmilab.ch/hackdiet/e4/pencilpaper.html#PencilFeedbackLab[/url][/QUOTE]

Did you implement one of these methods in Excel? If so, "twicing" will be easy to do and will improve the tracking. I'll do it for you if you send the spreadsheet.

[url=http://www.mercurynews.com/drought/ci_27070897/california-drought-worst-1-200-years-new-study]California drought the worst in 1,200 years, new study says[/url] - San Jose Mercury News

On the positive side of things, we got almost as much rain in NoCal this past week as we did all last winter. More falling as I write this, more on tap for next week. Hopefully a trend change rather than a flukey storm series.

[QUOTE=wblipp;389408]Did you implement one of these methods in Excel?[/QUOTE]No, we just use the online tools.

[URL]http://www.fourmilab.ch/hackdiet/online/hdo.html[/URL]

We have attached a dump of our data if you want to play with it.

:mike:

[QUOTE=ewmayer;389415][URL="http://www.mercurynews.com/drought/ci_27070897/california-drought-worst-1-200-years-new-study"]California drought the worst in 1,200 years, new study says[/URL] - San Jose Mercury News

On the positive side of things, [B]we got almost as much rain in NoCal this past week as we did all last winter. More falling as I write this[/B], more on tap for next week. Hopefully a trend change rather than a flukey storm series.[/QUOTE]

I sincerely hope a meaningful part of it is falling in the watersheds of important reservoirs, and not disappearing through storm drains into the ocean.

[QUOTE=kladner;389431]I sincerely hope a meaningful part of it is falling in the watersheds of important reservoirs, and not disappearing through storm drains into the ocean.[/QUOTE]Ditto.
It sounds like this next storm is going to be very strong and possibly more coming.

Here's some back of the envelope numbers so far:
[URL="http://m.kcra.com/news/are-we-there-yet-how-much-more-rain-will-end-the-drought/30086452"]'Are we there yet?': How much more rain will end drought?[/URL][QUOTE]The California Department of Water Resources said it relies mainly on eight precipitation gauges in the northern Sierra Nevada Mountains to determine how far the state has to go to end the drought.

Stretching in a line from Mount Shasta to Highway 50 in El Dorado County, the gauges are located upstream from the state's major reservoirs.

"Right now we're at, I think, 107 percent, of average," said Jay Lund, director of the UC Davis Center for Watershed Sciences.

However, state water managers said precipitation will have to reach at least 150 percent of average between now and next fall to end the drought.

"We're still very, very early in the wet season. And the rest of the wet season could just as easily be dry as wet," said Lund.

In an average year, the eight gauges record about 50 inches of precipitation.

In order to reach the state's goal of 150 percent of average, at least 75 inches will have to fall.

As of Friday, the gauges had recorded 11.5 inches, or about 15 percent of the state's goal.

In other words, if California's journey out of drought were a trip from Sacramento to Disneyland, we would have traveled 61 miles of the 410-mile distance and be on Interstate 5 just past Lathrop.[/QUOTE]