i predict that 2^2147483647-1 might be prime and be M65, at least... for M48, in the range of 55e6-60e6 seem reasonable

[QUOTE=firejuggler;229591]i predict that 2^2147483647-1 might be prime[/QUOTE]

Maybe somewhere near there. But not exactly there because it's divisible by 295257526626031.

[quote=wblipp;229606]Maybe somewhere near there. But not exactly there because it's divisible by 295257526626031.[/quote]

Why is a smartass/policeman never around when you need one?

:smile:

David

[QUOTE=wblipp;229606]Maybe somewhere near there. But not exactly there because it's divisible by 295257526626031.[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=davieddy;229887]Why is a smartass/policeman never around when you need one?

:smile:

David[/QUOTE]

I think I laughed for twenty seconds after reading this.

[quote=Primeinator;229927]I think I laughed for twenty seconds after reading this.[/quote]

Assuming that was a long chuckle...

I have my moments, and I think William knows me well enough
to take it on the chin!

David

Here is a current summary of the current guesses. I have retained some data from the predict 47 thread (where there was no new data).
[CODE]Damian 45,000,000
Storm5510 46,500,000 9/15/2010
Primeinator 47,300,000 10/1/2009
jasong 48,200,000
ATH 49,000,000 3/1/2010
Raman 50,000,000
MiniGeek 50,000,000 9/1/2009
ixfd64 50,000,000 2/1/2010
uigrad 51,500,000 8/1/2009
McDuck 54,000,000 6/24/2010
firejuggler 57,500,000
10metreh 59,278,411 6/30/2011
davieddy 60,000,000 1/1/2012
joblack 60,500,000
MoooMoo 75,860,000 5/1/2013
XYYXF 88,000,000 11/1/2011
nngs 90,087,850
Terrance Law 98,000,000 5/1/2011
Uncwilly 332,192,831 2/12/2011
henryzz 8/31/2009
ET 12/20/2012
[/CODE]

For the fun of it here are some calculations based upon data from the GIMPS era:
[CODE]Last discovery: 4/12/09
LD plus ave. gap 4/24/10
above
+1/2 standard deviation 9/7/10
+average dev 12/2/10 <--- closest date
+1 std dev 1/20/11
+1.5 std dev 6/5/11
LD + max gap 9/26/11[/CODE]

I am running up with my next LL text upon that exponent 62914441.
If it continues at this current rate, then it is due sometime around December 20s, 2010.
It is that smallest prime factor for the exponent 524287 (MM19).

That old estimate that I kept for exponent 48544121 had already failed up, which you would have already known before itself, since I had posted about it at the time that it had completed up, with its result.

At this time of writing, it is at 34.4% of that LL test for that exponent 62914441, upon my home Core 2 Quad Desktop; running up with single instance only, actually, otherwise rather that it would get overheated up, rather, thus, within that way.

[QUOTE=ATH;229579]Its now (Sep 13th 2010) 519 days since last prime found (Apr 12th 2009) which makes this the 4th largest gap between GIMPS primes: [URL="http://www.mersenneforum.org/showpost.php?p=211761&postcount=68"]post #68[/URL]

But still over a year until its a new gap record (Sep 27th 2011, 898 days), so lets hope we get a new prime soon :)[/QUOTE]

We will have to wait until the next vacation for George Woltman is planned ;)

[QUOTE=joblack;234169]We will have to wait until the next vacation for George Woltman is planned ;)[/QUOTE][SIZE=2]Quick! Bug all the travel agencies in George's area![/SIZE]

[QUOTE=Uncwilly;234155]Here is a current summary of the current guesses. I have retained some data from the predict 47 thread (where there was no new data).
[CODE]Damian 45,000,000
Storm5510 46,500,000 9/15/2010
Primeinator 47,300,000 10/1/2009
jasong 48,200,000
ATH 49,000,000 3/1/2010
Raman 50,000,000
MiniGeek 50,000,000 9/1/2009
ixfd64 50,000,000 2/1/2010
uigrad 51,500,000 8/1/2009
McDuck 54,000,000 6/24/2010
firejuggler 57,500,000
10metreh 59,278,411 6/30/2011
davieddy 60,000,000 1/1/2012
joblack 60,500,000
MoooMoo 75,860,000 5/1/2013
XYYXF 88,000,000 11/1/2011
nngs 90,087,850
Terrance Law 98,000,000 5/1/2011
Uncwilly 332,192,831 2/12/2011
henryzz 8/31/2009
ET 12/20/2012
[/CODE]For the fun of it here are some calculations based upon data from the GIMPS era:
[CODE]Last discovery: 4/12/09
LD plus ave. gap 4/24/10
above
+1/2 standard deviation 9/7/10
+average dev 12/2/10 <--- closest date
+1 std dev 1/20/11
+1.5 std dev 6/5/11
LD + max gap 9/26/11[/CODE][/QUOTE]
You forgot to include my guess earlier:
[url]http://www.mersenneforum.org/showpost.php?p=213821&postcount=87[/url]

[quote]I have looked at the "expected new primes" < 79,300,000 for
April 2001,2004,2007 and 2010.
[URL]http://web.archive.org/web/*/http://mersenne.org/status.htm[/URL]

From these figures, I deduce:

01 - 04 we expected 1.64 (found 2)
04 - 07 we expected 1.28 (found 4)
07 - 10 we expected 0.69 (found 3)

Note that expecting 0.69 corresponds to an even chance
of finding one or more.

I would guess that finding M48 before 2015 is a toss up.

[/quote]If by toss-up you mean a 50-50 chance, I disagree.

I think sometime early in 2011, though I don't know in what range
it will be found.

And aren't we all assuming the infinitude of the Mersenne Primes?