[QUOTE=davieddy;325548]Expected new primes <72M is currently 0.693.

The probability of no new primes <72M is e[SUP]-0.693[/SUP] = 0.5
(Poisson distribution).

The probability of no new primes before the expected number has dropped by 0.693 is 0.5. (Same reason).
At the current rate (as monitored by me for years), this will take about 3 years.

I hope these observations will inhibit the dafter guesses which abound in this thread.

D[/QUOTE]
Ironic that you make this post predicting 3 years just 2 days before it appears another one has been found. Would this then be an 8th 'heads'?

I think I said after the last prime (or did I dream it?) that they were obviously starting to get 'closer together' again. Looks like I'm right. :grin:

[QUOTE=bcp19;326335]Ironic that you make this post predicting 3 years just 2 days before it appears another one has been found. Would this then be an 8th 'heads'?[/QUOTE]

Yes, this will be the 8th heads. The logic behind davieddy's estimates is valid. If we don't get substantial improvements in number of volunteers or speed of the hardware, then we are facing an expected ~4 years between finds. The scary thing is we could easily see a decade long drought if we run into a desolate area like between 216091 and 756839.

[QUOTE=Prime95;326373]Yes, this will be the 8th heads. The logic behind davieddy's estimates is valid.[/QUOTE]

Hmmm.
If this new find is or thm rumour, could you let us know so that we can play our traditional guessing game?

I'll start the ball rolling by pointing out that by comparing a "small" gap with a coin toss turning out to be "heads", I was referrring to 50/50 propositions. Assuming you took that on board, I would infer that this find is <56M.

David

[QUOTE=Prime95;326373]Yes, this will be the 8th heads. The logic behind davieddy's estimates is valid. If we don't get substantial improvements in number of volunteers or speed of the hardware, then we are facing an expected ~4 years between finds. The scary thing is we could easily see a decade long drought if we run into a desolate area like between 216091 and 756839.[/QUOTE]
Depending on the amount of slowdown, you could probably get new members by saying that the combination of Moore's Law(if it's still around) and the odds of the next prime indicate the odds of finding a new one soon are increasing.

[QUOTE=Prime95;326373]Yes, this will be the 8th heads. The logic behind davieddy's estimates is valid. If we don't get substantial improvements in number of volunteers or speed of the hardware, then we are facing an expected ~4 years between finds. The scary thing is we could easily see a decade long drought if we run into a desolate area like between 216091 and 756839.[/QUOTE]

Even worse, a gap like the one between 127 and 521, that one lasted 38 years.

[QUOTE=philmoore;326458]Even worse, a gap like the one between 127 and 521, that one lasted 38 years.[/QUOTE]
It lasted longer than that:smile:
As if sad anecdotes about the fate of Alan Turing were'nt numerous enough already,apparently he missed finding 521 because he only had 1024 bits od RAM at his disposal!

David

Wikipedia
[QUOTE]Mersenne primes take their name from the 17th-century French scholar Marin Mersenne, who compiled what was supposed to be a list of Mersenne primes with exponents up to 257. His list was largely incorrect, as Mersenne mistakenly included M67 and M257 (which are composite), and omitted M61, M89, and M107 (which are prime). Mersenne gave little indication how he came up with his list.[6]
[/QUOTE]
Sounds like he should be confined to Misc. Math Threads

[QUOTE=Flatlander;326481]Wikipedia
[QUOTE]Mersenne primes take their name from the 17th-century French scholar Marin Mersenne, who compiled what was supposed to be a list of Mersenne primes with exponents up to 257. His list was largely incorrect, as Mersenne mistakenly included M67 and M257 (which are composite), and omitted M61, M89, and M107 (which are prime). Mersenne gave little indication how he came up with his list.[6] [/QUOTE]

Sounds like he should be confined to Misc. Math Threads[/QUOTE]
On the bright side, [URL="http://primes.utm.edu/mersenne/LukeMirror/mersenne.htm"]he wasn't an Inquisitor[/URL], some people say. Indeed, he was probably quite a pleasant fellow.

Nobody expects...

Spam, spam, spam, spam, spam, spam! Glorious spam!

[QUOTE=Prime95;326373]If we don't get substantial improvements in number of volunteers or speed of the hardware, then we are facing an expected ~4 years between finds.[/QUOTE]

Even with sustained throughput jumping from 95 TFLOPS in November to 124+ TFLOPS as I write this? Whoever brought those Amazon computers online (hopefully someone who remains interested, has the ability to maintain Prime95 on them, and has permission to do so) really gave us a significant boost. Curtisc, I am sure, will upgrade his hardware as time goes on. We've barely scratched the surface of AVX. And let's not forget GPUs.

Have we ever considered putting together a basic package of information, getting started tips, and perhaps a Prime95 install CD, and sending it to various universities, schools, businesses, etc. to drum up potential newcomers to the project? Something concrete that a teacher (or students) could then present to the IT staff and say "hey, we really are interested in this GIMPS project, here's how we join, this is why it won't totally bollocks up our computers, and here's 10 reasons why humanity will suffer if we don't help find a new Mersenne prime." :smile: I would be happy to help develop some print materials - this might be an excellent idea with the coverage of GIMPS that will be occurring in the next few days and weeks.

The leaderboard on the home page says that we have 730,000 or so CPUs registered right now. Imagine if we could just double that number. How about raising it an order of magnitude?! And it's not that hard to do, when you consider that there are billions of potential candidate computers out there. But I believe that while we have done a good job of bringing users to GIMPS, the next wave of success will depend on our bringing GIMPS to users.

[QUOTE]The scary thing is we could easily see a decade long drought if we run into a desolate area like between 216091 and 756839.[/QUOTE]

Double the number of GIMPSters and you cut this to a five-year drought. Increase by a factor of ten and you cut this to a year's drought!

[QUOTE=Flatlander;326481]Sounds like he should be confined to Misc. Math Threads[/QUOTE]

:rofl:

That made my day!! I wonder if he used an EXACT THEOREM, or if it was divine inspiration? LOL!